CPG is getting tempting. 1.25 - 1.28 is the support to many chartists. I want to get in at 1.23. A bet here is also a bet that the Antonios will announce already the long-overdue ex-date for their stock divs.
GTCAP is a buy again at 700. Toyota has just launched an all-new Altis on the heels of an all-new Vios. Im looking to test drive both myself.
SECB should hold 117-118 to create a legitimate higher low and start a good upward channel. Im still holding position here accumulated from last year. Looking to add if this support holds. If I have anything against SECB, it is about MBT being comparatively cheaper in terms of value.
Extra patience could be the key this Q1 2014. I feel that local small-time traders are more careful today than same time last year, with the QE tapering still portending volatility in the coming weeks.
Tuesday, January 28, 2014
Monday, January 27, 2014
Pick of the week for Wk5: stand by for hoped-for short term fall
I'll obviously be biased by my move the past few days. Again, I unloaded all of my DNL and BDO, substantial of MEG and TA, and some MBT, hoping these will 'cool-off' a bit before I reenter.
So the pick of the week is to observe these five to go lower by 25% of their recent increases. Most of them jumped by at ~15%, so I would like to see them go down by 3.75%-5% from their peaks or before I enter again.
As usual, since we are not yet in a clear general uptrend (for the market overall), our entries will be in minimum tranches.
So the pick of the week is to observe these five to go lower by 25% of their recent increases. Most of them jumped by at ~15%, so I would like to see them go down by 3.75%-5% from their peaks or before I enter again.
As usual, since we are not yet in a clear general uptrend (for the market overall), our entries will be in minimum tranches.
Waiting and Hoping for Handles
Many of our favorites are overbought, and small-time investors like us, expectedly, are on the sidelines waiting for them to "cool down" before getting in again. In Technical Analysis parlance, this means that the RSI is already above 70. DNL for example is already hitting 85 and TA 75. Chartists want this to go down to a 'healthy' 50 or so for these stocks to resume an uptrend again.
If all goes according to plan, a familiar cup and handle pattern would also emerge. So this means that many are also waiting for the handle portion You should read up about it if you're not familiar with cup and handle.
I have unloaded completely DNL and BDO. Also, offloaded substantial MEG and TA, and a small amount of MBT. All of them green. The critical thing now is to know if a real handle will form and how deep a handle to wait for before getting in again.
References say that the handle downtrend shouldn't last longer than half-the-time of the previous uptrend. So, if DNL has been on the second half of the cup for 5 weeks, the downtrend should not last longer than 2.5 weeks.
The depth of the downtrend should ideally not be more than 25% of the cup's tip. So, if DNL peaked at around 7.1 from cup's bottom at 6.03--the handle's bottom should only be around 6.8.
Finally the volume should not be going up (preferably very small) during the downtrend of the handle.
I dont fully believe and subscribe to Technical Analysis as a whole, but the The RSI can be just a simple tool to check if the stock is just going down or up too fast, so we should also check it from time to time.
Cup and Handle I think is also solidly based on a psychology of investment crowds, so I always look for its emergence myself. Although in the end, all of these could be crapshoots/casino_bets only, especially if the PSEi and the overall market is really not in an uptrend (not confirmed up to this day).
So, in the words of the great Philosopher Inday Badiday... if youre still playing the PSE, still be "careful, careful. Kailangan parating maging careful."
If all goes according to plan, a familiar cup and handle pattern would also emerge. So this means that many are also waiting for the handle portion You should read up about it if you're not familiar with cup and handle.
I have unloaded completely DNL and BDO. Also, offloaded substantial MEG and TA, and a small amount of MBT. All of them green. The critical thing now is to know if a real handle will form and how deep a handle to wait for before getting in again.
References say that the handle downtrend shouldn't last longer than half-the-time of the previous uptrend. So, if DNL has been on the second half of the cup for 5 weeks, the downtrend should not last longer than 2.5 weeks.
The depth of the downtrend should ideally not be more than 25% of the cup's tip. So, if DNL peaked at around 7.1 from cup's bottom at 6.03--the handle's bottom should only be around 6.8.
Finally the volume should not be going up (preferably very small) during the downtrend of the handle.
I dont fully believe and subscribe to Technical Analysis as a whole, but the The RSI can be just a simple tool to check if the stock is just going down or up too fast, so we should also check it from time to time.
Cup and Handle I think is also solidly based on a psychology of investment crowds, so I always look for its emergence myself. Although in the end, all of these could be crapshoots/casino_bets only, especially if the PSEi and the overall market is really not in an uptrend (not confirmed up to this day).
So, in the words of the great Philosopher Inday Badiday... if youre still playing the PSE, still be "careful, careful. Kailangan parating maging careful."
Wednesday, January 22, 2014
Looking into those issues with zero or negative 1-yr return
If we are really on the recovery/upsurge now, it's good to look at fundamentally-solid (read: not SMC) and high-volume-traded (not SGI) first liners that have negative or almost-nil 1yr returns. These are the issues that took beating almost for no reason, other than the QE tapering and foreign funds wanting to exit.
Plus points if the stock has below-15 current P/E.
In my watchlist are
SECB (-10% 52wk, 13 P/E)
MBT (3% 1yr return, 9 P/E)
FLI (-15% 1yr, 8 P/E)
AP (1% 1 year, 13 P/E)
BPI is marginal. Although it has negative 52wk return, it has above 15 P/E.
If you bet this way, you'll be banking on the possibility that foreign funds will look first on these issues as the among the first ones to recover fast. And we hope to get on in that ride.
Share also your watchlist.
Plus points if the stock has below-15 current P/E.
In my watchlist are
SECB (-10% 52wk, 13 P/E)
MBT (3% 1yr return, 9 P/E)
FLI (-15% 1yr, 8 P/E)
AP (1% 1 year, 13 P/E)
BPI is marginal. Although it has negative 52wk return, it has above 15 P/E.
If you bet this way, you'll be banking on the possibility that foreign funds will look first on these issues as the among the first ones to recover fast. And we hope to get on in that ride.
Share also your watchlist.
Taper and Haiyan unleashed downward channels left and right
[THIS SHOULD HAVE BEEN POSTED LAST DECEMBER. IM STILL POSTING FOR POSTERITY]
If you rely on Technical Analysis solely for your investment decisions, you shouldn't be investing in PSE these days. It aint looking good.
Since the hoped-for recovery was stunted last October by the probable taper (the moment the positive US economic indicator came in, foreign funds furthered their exits), the trend is clear that we are on a downward channel.
MEG is on a downward channel.
BDO is on a downward channel
The banking sector is very cheap and tempting, but you should only nibble if you insist on getting in.
Tuesday, January 14, 2014
Holdin on to my horses
Turmukesh is currently overseas. In that other casino (besides the PSE)...
and for the CES.
and walking SFO
Hope my positions will not be jailed as difficult as in Alcatraz.
Will not be trading until Jan 22. Will just peeking from time to time.
Good luck with your trades.
and for the CES.
and some slot and table bets (again not too dissimilar to the chances and risks in our PSE :-) )
and walking SFO
Hope my positions will not be jailed as difficult as in Alcatraz.
Will not be trading until Jan 22. Will just peeking from time to time.
Good luck with your trades.
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