Tuesday, March 24, 2015

Pick of the week patience to wait for old, reliable, favorites to be more attractive again...

There's some hopin and wishin in this week's pick.

PGOLD is being sold down by foreigners. I'll buy at 39, then 38, 37, and so on.

TEL appears rearing to go down as well. I'll stat buying again at 2700.

Apologies to those holding. Just rearing to clear some cash.

No time to look at other stocks. I just placed GTM buys on both.

Patalastas muna

–Sir mukhang marami kayong lamig sa katawan, wag kang mag-alala tatanggalin ko lahat yan
–Uy salamat
–Mukhang pagod na pagod kayo sir ah san ka nagtatrabaho
–Wala pa trabaho. Nag-aaral pa lang. Stress ng term papers lang siguro yang nahahawakan mo.
–Madalas ka ba dito sir
–Hindi ngayon lang, nalibre lang nang barkada.
–Talaga sir.
–Oo. First time. Kinakabahan nga ako sayo.
–Ba’t ka kinakabahan sir, ikaw naman. May misis ka na ba.
–Wala pa. ambata ko pa, college pa lang.
–Gelpren, sir?
–Wala rin akong gelpren. Walang pandeyt at oto. Puros may mga oto lang ang nagkakagelpren
–Hindi naman siguro ako kahit jeep lang ang date basta mabait sir.
–Wag mo akong tawaging sir. Mahirap lang kami,
–Ako rin mahirap kaya nga andito.
–Bat angganda nang boses mo.
–Palabiro ka.
–Hindi nga.
–Pihit na nga. Tihaya na.
–Ang ganda ganda mo. Akin ka na lang.

O, baka magkaideya kayo kung san gagastusin yang kinikita sa istaks ha 

Wednesday, March 18, 2015

Picks of the week for WK12 is to HOLD the AGI and MWC that you've bought, and then TEL. at 2602

AGI could have fuel until 29 to 31. I'll probably sell all at 29 and some cents

MWC seems changing and consolidating hands in preparation for a move upwards. Although not that convincing.

If I have to choose between the two, only AGI's move up is probable. Foreign buying in AGI was solid and with conviction the past few days.

GMA7-- might need to cut loss at 6.5.

I also placed a buy in TEL at 2602. This is one of the stocks Im eager to go back to again and again and again. And it's lucky for our trading style that it moves in a channel rather than leaves you after you sell. Whatever happens, I'll start accumulating again from that price point (may be even at 2700). Remember--TEL gives divs, big enough to give you gain even if its price rests lower for longer vs. your entry point.

Thursday, March 12, 2015

WARNING: SPECULATIVE. Picks of the week for Wk11 is slight buys on issues with apparent foreign buying

There's a "Warning: Speculative" in the title, but aren't all stock purchases speculative? Well, this only means that I see risks here more than our normal picks of the week.

Anyway, I suggest you make a criteria to sift through # of foreign brokers buying the stock that youre eyeing, before you get in. For my own, if I see three foreign brokers like UB, JPMORGAN, and DEUTSCHE appearing together in the net buy side, inside the top 6 buyers, thats significant.

I havent peeked through that many stocks yet. but in the group that I saw, I liked the foreign buying that I see in AGI so I added (buy up) one tranche more. AGI is our pick this week, together with two speculative picks.

Not, in these two other 'extra' picks, you should enter at your risk... but arent all buy at own risk, you say?

In any case, be ready to cut loss when you suddenly see yourself holding -8% in a few days. On the other hand, when you see a profit. sell also as quickly... the extra picks are

...GMA7 and MWC! Buy a few tranches each then follow closely.

James K Nava will blog on GMA7 in Filipino, I'll do a separate post on MWC.

Sunday, March 8, 2015

Index uptrend intact?

For fun, let's validate if the runup of the PSE index is still intact based on one Technical Analysis (TA) concept that's fairly easy to follow.

The check is through MACD analysis. The requirement is actually just a quick glance to see whether or not the short term moving average (orange macd in the most bottom graph below) is above the intermediate moving ave (violet) and long term (green). If the orange is above the other two, that's good, the uptrend is suppose to be "holding."

Further in TA parlance when any of these lines cross, it is an important event.

This means we should have bought some time end-December when orange line crossed intermediate-term (violet) and bought even ore when orange crossed green (long-term). 


Same principle applies when lately orange crossed below violet when you should have sold the index, if you are trading only for the short and medium term. You should have gained minimum 7.5% through this system. If you are in it for the longer term, you should still be holding because the orange line is still above the green, and moreover, orange is threatening once again to cross above intermediate just last Friday.

Not that hard to follow, aint it? It is also not that hard to do as well given that BPI and most other banks have UITF anchored on index today that you can quickly invest in online. FMETF also exists and can be traded in the PSE. Youre not any more relying on bogus fund managers who pick speculative LC, DMPL, and the likes that can deplete your hard earned money.

But among the problems in using this method is 1) when the index breaks down too fast and too hard. You might not have the time to pull out. 2) You wont have the chance as well to "beat the market" (beat the index) on the basis of your own belief on companies and strength of your own research. It also doesnt take into account how expensive (can be interpreted as how 'scary' in terms of risk/reward) already is the market, and 3) the lines might be crossing too often in a volatile market, every investment just becomes virtually casino bets.

As Ive written elsewhere, Im not a full believer in TA. Im more into the value of the company (I wont call it pure value investing yet a la Buffett) and the caliber of the people that run the company. I also get a bit of 'entertainment'--I get fulfilment and satisfaction in managing my money myself rather than just allowing the market or another fund manager to do it for me.

To compensate, I invest in UITF that is based on index invested on the side, but the bulk of the funds are still divided between a nimble 'short-term' traded portfolio (brokerage under BPI), and intermediate and longer-term under Firstmetrosec. It works for me. Although Im not beating the index year to date, it brings me fulfilment to pick and put money where my talk is.

Thursday, March 5, 2015

Pick of the week for Wk10 is to ready cash

My bet is that index will go down 5-8% from yesterday before going up and successfully breaching 8K. So my bet is there will be a chance to get in at cheaper valuations. What's my basis on this belief? Nothing solid. Only that the foreign buying is small and scattered. There's no consistent push even across index issues.  And then the volume is also distributed to bazurs rather than blue chips or solid second liners. The atmosphere is partially speculative than a consistent rise (on the backdrop of growing corporate earnings, as newspapers say, or otherwise)

If you have TEL, AC, GLO, other big index contributors in green, sell.

But if you bought PGOLD, like I did when it dipped to 38, hold muna. There might be fuel until 45-48.

Also, if youre still holding the likes of SECB,SCC, GTCAP, ABS, DNL and picks, which are now showing all-time highs after all-time-highs, congratulations. It's up to you how long term is really long term. If you think funds that placed in them has no other better chance elsewhere, yes youo can still hold. In any case, your paper gain is already impeccable and hard to erase (save for a major crisis or a dreaded Black Swan).

Just make sure you'll have the extra cash to deposit when the prices become more attractive.

Sunday, March 1, 2015

Live Long and Prosper


"Insufficient facts always invite danger."

I was not as old to have caught the original series, but have read up a lot on the Trekkies from college until now. Nimoy's contributions in actionable (although cold) logic, pride in being nerds (although not knowing how to sing or dance), dignity in introspection (rather than pure gut feels), are beyond TV. It makes people that choose logic above else proud. And yes, in trading stocks, it's better if there is zero emotion. 

Thank you, Mr. Spock.