Tuesday, June 24, 2014

Pick of the week for Wk26 is BPI (after a quick browse through)

Still havent the time to do a more comprehensive review of our market. While in a business trip in this place,


I have very limited time to monitor our PSE, so I limited myself to observing foreign-buying more than anything else. Im aware that there has been almost a week of net foreign selling. But today, we're back to net buying at 0.7 B. And DEUTSCHE and other big funds are being bullish big at that. Is this pure window dressing? Probably not.

So the pick of the week is a starting entry in some fundamentally-solid stocks like BPI. I like the consistent foreign buying here and also WEALTH's joining the bullish fray in BPI. There could be a +5% for us here on short term. Best also to look at the other blue chips and hunt for similar characteristics (many foreign funds buying, gradual increase, etc).

BEL and MCP also could jump back steeply to previous high levels, after falling more than 20%.


Both are buy and hold still for me until their casino opened. In fact, knew just now that de Niro was in Manila last January.


Any firm my man de Niro backs up deserves some of my money.

Incidentally US indices are continuously making records.I wish we all have US billing addresses so we can trade here.



In any case, it's love our own muna. We can get some money out of our very own PSE.

***

Caveat though: we need to continue to monitor news on inflation.

Tuesday, June 17, 2014

Pick of the week is still to maintain a robust cash position

At this time, the minimum I think should be 50% cash. And keep your bets inside a few fundamentally-sound favorites as much as you can. 

Incidentally, I passed by NYC on a business trip and made it a point to visit this mother of stock exchanges.


[More pictures, and probably some reflections later]. 

Different time zone, so I wont be able to trade the rest of the week, probably.

Good luck on you own trades. Make informed decisions, based on your own research.

Wednesday, June 11, 2014

Pick of the week for Wk25 is still watch the sidelines

We seem to be moving sideways, so there's not much bearish signal at this time, as the Technical Analyst would say (we can just call it dangerous, bad, or evil signal). But still Im keeping cash position out of the reasons I posted earlier.

I also stopped averaging down on BEL mean time, since I cant understand why BDO (its own affiliate) and some big foreigners are unloading shares. Im at -15% in BEL even with averaging down at this point, but I will hold and buy again near 4.0. My position anyway is not even half of my top holdings, theres still some confidence and war chest in averaging down.

I can be mad about this Sy maneuvering / restructuring that seems to be destroying BEL. There was also some remorse--I should have sold when I was seeing +5% in this stock. But well, let' see what will happen in the week running up to the City of Dreams opening. This tumbling down of price could be a good thing in the end to believers.

And again, I would like to post that I would love, love, love to be given a nice price to come in again in AGI, MEG, PGOLD, and DNL. Since I unloaded also most of my TA during the GDP announcement, Im including TA in this list. I will try to post entry prices for these 5 in a later post.

If you're itching to enter now, enter small.

Sunday, June 8, 2014

Beating the index so far this year

Both of my funds are substantially beating the index year to date. Index gain ytd is about 16%, but Im 28% in my main port and 36% in my nimble. And as of this time both have big cash positions.

Im not sure if I'll stay in this winning way throughout the year. But at least speaking for the period of the past 8 months, I think beating the PSEi was not that hard to do... as long as you really stuck with the companies that are fundamentally strong and showed good rebound as they did a year ago (say Q2 2014 vis a vis Q2 2013). The stocks that made me beat the index were concentrated positions on TA, AGI, MEG, TEL (and its big divs), DNL, and MBT. PGOLD was not a very hard pick to make as well, but my position here was small then I sold it also pretty quickly. Part of my education is in learning that one really does not need so many stocks in portfolio. If you gave 30% in TA, 30% in MEG, 30% in AGI, 10% to MBT (which has a low P/E for a top bank), and then made zero allocation to expensive and bland-performing SMPH and SM, you sure should also have beaten the index handily.

When I played with bazuras, mostly on small positions and for 'entertainment,' I made sure to sell already when I saw +10%. No need to be greedy. I profited from BHI, CPG, SGI, et al. On the reverse, on the losing side, I also cut generally on a Bazura when I see -6 or -7% and when the bid side is not getting any thicker. I usually sold on intraday rallies with these bazuras. I lost in LC, PX, ROCK which I all bought and sold inside a week.

In-and-out-in-two-to-three-weeks-after seeing-3.5%-8% gain is also effective in a volatile market. This helped late last year, especially. But the assumption here is that youll have time to "guard" your stocks and monitor the market. You need to see the buying side thinning to have an informed decision that the runup is probably getting weaker. Using this method, GTCAP gave me good profits 

Im seeing some newbies who relied on just RSI's on their first entries in SECB and other fundamentally-sound stocks. Im sure they also have beaten the index year to date. As long as they did not get greedy. 

If you do not play bazura, hedge bets this coming week

All my trades exempt bazuras at this time, precisely because I have no time to monitor the market. Third liners are good to play, but not for long or even intermediate term. It's just dangerous. They always remind me of bogus inventions like these. 


And the bureaucrats or supporters on the take (like Defensor) that endorse them.

These companies fizzle out and there's always a Filipino losing painfully at the other end (instead of us getting our money from foreign funds or from the profits of a strong company itself).

If youre purely on blue chips and high-volume traded stocks, the safest thing to do is to hedge bets these days. Last week, my only bet was to average down on BEL and that's it. My cash position is not in this high percentage since more than a year ago. And I have banked enough profit for a war, if we became tumbling down. I worry about the inflation report, the lower-than-expected GDP, and the shock (however short-term) of a BSP policy rate increase. If these worries are unfounded, I'll be happier since I still have a 50% bet (in mainport) and 30% (in nimble port) remaining.

If we go back and threaten 7K again, fine by me, I'll just buy again the favorites. Mean time, it's more a wait and see. My day job is also quite demanding these days, so really no time to monitor.

But good luck on your trades.

Wednesday, June 4, 2014

Pick of the week for Wk24 is a strong cash position. If youre not at at least 30%, sell some!

I saw that the PSEi is showing some signs of resilience. And although the locals are selling, the foreigners are firm on supporting some specific stocks. My relatively big positions in SECB and FLI are even showing big gains.

I still dont like though the general atmosphere, and the fact that we were red today. The inflation report and the possible rate increase by the BSP this week is also something to watch out for.

My reco this week is to maintain a robust cash position. If you have some belief in the chances of an uptrend, still maintain 30% cash. That's the safest thing to do this June.