Whatever it is, remember to take profit early

The market gained +3.59%.

Some are calling it dead cat or technical bounce, others assign it to the GDP growth press release. 

Technical bounce is short word for people like me buying, after thinking that prices has reached bottom and should be rising up asap. But that buying was also done on faith that our economy is growing vigorously, and that the firms that are part of that growth does not deserve the humongous minus-10%-in-one day that we're seeing the past days.   Therefore, we can say that the increase is a combination of both. 

My risky buys in GTCAP and AGI paid off, although GTCAP's increase has some luck and good timing in it (it is to be included in PSEi by Sept 16). AGI on the other hand is one of the most resilient stock I am eager to come back to since divesting for profit early August. Also took minimum tranche positions in CPG, TA, Im down to 20% cash today.

	Stock Code	Last	Change	%Change	Value
1	MCP	9.0500	1.1800	14.99%	38,031,116
2	GTCAP	780.0000	90.0000	13.04%	429,077,175
3	SEVN	105.0000	12.0000	12.90%	172,295
4	LTG	18.0000	2.0000	12.50%	349,055,466
5	WIN	0.2400	0.0250	11.63%	2,400
6	ABS	34.0000	3.4000	11.11%	77,400
7	CHI	5.7900	0.5400	10.29%	129,998
8	CYBR	0.5800	0.0500	9.43%	51,380
9	WEB	12.0000	1.0000	9.09%	74,087,622
10	MWIDE	14.9800	1.1800	8.55%	9,966,814
11	JFC	167.0000	13.0000	8.44%	256,748,864
12	PGOLD	39.3000	3.0000	8.26%	87,051,735
13	DAVIN	1.1000	0.0800	7.84%	1,624,980
14	GMAP	8.4000	0.6000	7.69%	13,980,480
15	ABSP	35.0000	2.5000	7.69%	55,137,950
16	BDO	73.3000	5.1000	7.48%	522,727,851
17	MIC	5.7500	0.4000	7.48%	552,990
18	MA	0.0300	0.0020	7.14%	5,552,700
19	SINO	0.3000	0.0200	7.14%	36,000
20	FOOD	1.2000	0.0800	7.14%	1,947,280

I also averaged down on AC on my main port--this appears also to be a good move. And then some strong recoveries in BDO and MBT. I have a big position in MBT, and Im still wondering why foreign funds seem to be exiting from this stock seemingly in a hurry. Even the ex-date of a heft stock dividend was ignored by these sellers. Has MBT a huge exposure in forex, hedging in favor of PhP? Is the bank's porfolios not robust against the upcoming QE tapering. I remember MBT being one of the hardest hit among local banks in the 2008 subprime crisis. Its managers should have learned their lesson.

It must be noted though that yesterday still is a net foreign selling day at 1 B PhP. And also we must not forget that the day before yesterday, all remaining year-to-date gains in our market was erased in a matter of hours.  The market that we have today is as volatile (and as dangerous) as that. 

Anyway, I think we should still be green today with all the positive sentiment. Some people includes Napoles's surrender in their motivation.

I believe these will also help: window-dressing, positive GDP hurrahs, even the CFO's of many companies are cheering at this time.  Technical Analysts might also be going and in and betting on te chance that index will bounce high and strong again at the same level as it did last June. That we will return to 6500 in the next few days.

PSEi to bounce strong again from 5700? 

BUT I intend to sell this afternoon to increase my cash position back to at least 50%. The volatility, obviously, is the one that portends danger above all. On some stocks, you can even observe the tussle between bears and bulls, and on many days the foreigner bears are winning. Only GTCAP might remain the one unsold 'green' stock. Its inclusion in the index will officially start  Sept 16. I think the upside of this issue from now until that date is still fat. BUT I will sell if it reaches 830 or 850, or there is a terrible sell-down again.

And so, in closing, be cautious on your bets!

Technical Analysis does not always work--many were duped by false breakouts early August and whipsawed in their cut-losses early this week--
and belief in Strong Fundamentals is also invalidated--solid companies like AGI are being divested like the company will go out of business immediately--
...when merciless foreigners are selling down indiscriminately.

Masiba

Hindi makukumpleto ang linggong ito kung walang post tungkol sa isang masiba.

Siksik-liglig-umaapaw ngayon ang news tungkol sa inyo. Good reading pa itong series na ito.

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/465861/napoles-benhur-luy-has-another-boss-it-is-not-me

http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/lifestyle/08/08/13/jeanes-blog-fashion-show-were-school-projects-says-dad

o-kaya i-google Napoles, at nang ma-entertain sa bwisit.

Sa sobrang tagal na siguro nilang nandarambong, feeling ng masiba at nang kanyang pamilya na parte na sila ng sistema. Na isa na silang esensyal na gear at pinion ng pagnanakaw at pandurugas na kailangan sa Kongreso. Biruin mong gumawa pa man din ng conglomerate -- JLN Group of Companies. Kung i-ni-PO nya siguro ang JLN, isang buwan na puros ceiling.

Congrats, Napoles, may 10 Milyon ng nakapataw sa ulo mo. Tsiken lang ito't madali mo lang madodoble para patuloy kang makapaglamyerda sa kung saan. Kung nasa dagat ka ngayon, bumili ka na lang muna ng isang isla. Dyan ka muna, dahil kapag lumakad ka sa Maynila, baka mamatay ka sa pamamagitan ng malililiit-malilingit na kurot ng masa. Ito yung pagkaliit-liit na na masakit na kurot at nagmamantal. Mamamaga ka muna nang doble sa maga mo ngayon bago matigok.

Hayup ka, Napoles.

Curse you, foreigners!

Youre raping our market!

I checked the market late, and I fell from my chair literally. I posted this in SMP:

great scott! oh mother! sanamagan! holy crap! supercalifragilistic! 
ngayon lang ako nakapagbukas, nalaglag ako sa upuan ko literally. 
pati GTCAP below 700 na. 
great tsupaetzki and other lords. what's happening? magsasara na ba ang mga kumpanyang ito?

The foreigners are selling stocks as if these companies are closing tomorrow!

All advises are off, stay away from the market.

I'll buy some GTCAP (-10%), hoping for a short bounce this afternoon. Then, that's it!

Hold on to your cash. Don't fight it. Let the dust settle. Dust isn't even the right word. Let the tsunami recede!

I remember one consolation teachers sometimes say... you can treat initial losses in the stock market as your tuition fee. This should be one expensive tuition fee, but cut losses if you still can. I think -15% is still swallow-able. Im doing this swallowing now. Gulp. Otherwise, get ready to average down on solid companies if youre still holding the likes of TEL, AGI, JFC. These firms are not going out of business!

Pick of the week for Week 35: Possibilities

First off, although Im already sounding like a broken record, stay in CASH if you want to be safe.

BUT if you want to participate, here are 'possibilities' the stocks to look at:

1) Gold already breached 1400, and seems to be on an uptrend, but LC still went down 8.77%, and PX by 2.7%. As we've mentioned elsewhere, trend of LC and the bunch seem to follow the trend of gold the night before, but this day is a contrarian day. The big bearish shock early in the opening probably overwhelmed holders early. I'll be betting one tranche tomorrow each on LC (or LCB) and PX.

2) ALI, a solid solid company, is already oversold (20 RSI). I'll be getting in at 24. This stock, several times in recent past, quickly bounced with just a marginal breach of oversold territory. The only problem is if there is really a general, pervasive, bearish, sell-sell-sell sentiment or there's a big local bad news waiting to explode... then not just ALI but all of PSE is doomed. But If there are no extraordinary negative circumstances, 24 offers good enough price with right margin of safety to enter. Just remember to sell at a small profit. Do not aim for double-digit percentage gain at this time.

3) VLL is a good stock to enter at 5, 5.01. Im also predicting an upcoming hefty divs announcement (between 2 - 3% yield) in the next two weeks.

4) I have to include MBT in this list again. P/E at current price is 8.48! Cheapest among the top 3 banks by a wide margin, and this stock has an upcoming stock divs to boot.

5) If you are in a 'bargain-hunting mode, check the EPS and P/E of other index stocks. (no exhorting need to look at bazurs at this time since blue chips are going on sale). But in the end, these are still dangerous times. Youll have to have faith on the company and have some strong ('emotionless') resolve, or [better] to just stay in cash, and wait for a clear uptrend.

6) The Sy stocks including mother ship SM are also in oversold range. However, the MSCI adjustment is still for 1st week of September, and there seems to be an continuous ominous cloud of bad intention (or rape?) by foreign fundies toward the Sy's. It's fearful to get in to SM, SMPH. I wont get in.

C'mon index! C'mon locals. That includes me! C'mon--we can doh it!

CANSLIM Kabanata 1

Binabasa ko ang librong ito sa aking ayPad.

Sinulat sya ni Galgani

na alagad ni Bill O'Neill na sumulat naman ng mas mahabang librong ito:

Nakailang edisyon na ang mas sikat na librong green. Si O'Neill naman ay tanyag na tanyag din bilang matagumpay na investor sa US stock market, kung kaya't ang kanyang CANSLIM (na itinutulak ng parehong libro) ay kilalang-kilala rin.

Ang libro ni Galgani, ayon kay Galgani, ay suplemento sa aklat ni O'Neill. Mas tutok sa aksyon at mas binibigyan daw ng diin ang mga hakbang, at mas ineengganyo ang mga nagbabasa na simulan na ang mas matalinong sistema (gamit ang librong blue). Hindi kinakailangang beginner investor ka dahil kung pulpol ang sistema mo, nais ni Galgani na iwasto ka para di maubos ang iyong kapital. (paraphrase ko na ito)

Bukod dito, mahigit 500 pahina yata ang libro ni O'Neill (ang alam ko meron si Turmukesh nito), samantalang ang kay Galgani ay mahigit 200 lang. Dagdag pa, kung eestimahin ang bilis ng progreso ng pagbabasa ko sa kindle app, mukhang malalaking letra pa ang pagkakaprint sa libro, bukod sa bugbog ng mga charts. Hindi malabong matapos ng isang lingguhan ang aklat ni Galgani kung ganadong-ganado ka. Sa normal naman... akong kumakayod araw-araw nasa 3/4 na wala pang isang buwan.

Susubukan kong sumulat ng ilang komento sa bawat kabanata ng libro, para rin maging solido ang sarili kong pag-aaral.

Ito na ang para sa Kabanata 1:

Sa unang pasok pa lang ang diin agad ng awtor ay tungkol sa kailangang proteksyon sa pera na pag-aari na, kailangan ang malasakit sa kapital, kailangang hindi mawala ang perang nasasayo na. Anya, masusunod nang madali ito kung susundin ang kanyang unang patakaran: "kapag ang isang stock ay bumagsak ng 7% - 8% mula sa pagkakabili mo, BENTA na agad. Walang nang tanong-tanong." Makikita raw na mas madaling mapapalago ang pera kapag sinunod ang tuntuning ito. Pati raw sila O'Neill daw ay nagkakamali. At ang mga magagaling na investor ay mabilis na aakuin ang kanilang pagkakamali sa pamamagitan ng pagkitil sa pagkatalo, habang maaga pa.

Ang pangalawang alituntunin, bumili lang ng stock kapag ang buong merkado ay kumpirmadong paakyat na (in a confirmed uptrend). Ang dahilan: kapag bulagsak daw ang merkado, 75% ng stocks ay kasamang babagsak kahit ganong kagagaling ang mga kumpanyang ito, kaya't dapat mamili lang kapag pataas ang palitan para mas mataas ang pag-asa ng taya.

Ngayon, paano malalaman kung nasa confirmed uptrend na ang stock market? Simple lang... kailangan daw tumingin sa IBD.com at tignan kung may nakasulat na "confirmed uptrend."

Ito ang unang puwedeng ipula sa libro. Mukhang hindi agad siya akma sa kahit saang market sa labas ng Estados Unidos. Dangan kasi, gusto agad pagkakitaan ang mambabasa para mag-subscribe sa IBD.com, e hindi pa nga nakakaporma sa unang kabanata.

Isa pa sa likot ng ating merkado... at sa nakita nating dali (easying-easy ika nga) at walang pakundangang kayang pabagsakin ng mga banyaga ang esem ng -10% sa isang araw, baka ang "benta agad kapag 8% na ang talo" ay mahirap rin lalo't kapag ang araw na yun ay araw lang ng paglabas halimbawa ng iisang naghaharing Deutsche. Kumbaga, hindi ganong kalaki ang ating PSE para sabihing -8% sa isang stock ay palpak taym na at kailangan nang lumabas. Mas maigi kayang maglagay man lang ng araw na bibilangin bukod sa porsyento ng talo? Halimbawa, kapag tinamaan ng -8% sa loob ng limang araw o higit pa?

Subalit dito pa lang, sasabihin ko na ang lohika ng -8% ay may katumbas ng +20% sa sistema nila Galgani. Sa mga susunod na kabanata, ang utos naman ay magbenta kapag umabot na ng +20% ang ganansya. Ito ang halimbawa ng risk-reward na sinasabi ng mga eksperto. Ang risk:reward sa kasong ito ay 1:2.5. Matatalo ka ng piso sa ilang 'kaunting' pagkakataon (kung susundin pa ang iba pang batas ng CANSLIM) sa bawat tatlong pisong kikitain (maraming beses mangyayari, kung susundin ang iba pang utos ng CANSLIM) .

Ang iba pang laman ng kabanata ay mga eksampol at suporta sa dalawang kautusan, at pahapyaw sa mga susunod na sangkap ng canslim, mula sa pagtingin sa mga dating pangyayari hanggang sa mga totoong stock na perpekto sa canslim at swak na swak kung pinasok ayon sa mga ituturo ng libro.

Sa huli, bagamat hindi syento porsyentong akma sa PSE ang mga hakbang na idinedetalye, solido ang sinasabi ng Kabanata 1. Kung hahayaan nyo akong i-paraphrase:

• matutong mag-cut-loss ng mas mababang porsyento kaysa sa pinaplanong kita.
• wag papasok nang hindi pataas ang merkado; matutong maghintay.

Yun nga lamang, kailangang alamin kung akma ba ang -8% sa atin, lalo kung shakeout lang ang nangyayari sa isang stock na nag-te-trade lang ng kaunting milyon (average na kung baga sa atin, pero maliit pa rin para sa mga banyaga). Kailangan bang mas mataas, mga -10%? At pwedeng 25% naman ang pagbenta para hindi mabago ang risk-reward ratio? O lagyan ng ilang araw na palugit (ibenta sa  -8% kapag inabot ito ng isang linggo)?

Kailangan ding malaman at gumawa ng sariling sukatan at indicator kung kailan ang uptrend para sa PSE (dahil hindi tayo minomonitor ng IBD.com). Kapag lumampas na ba sa 200-day simple moving average ang presyo ay confirmed uptrend na?

Sa susunod na Linggo, sisikapin kong magsulat naman tungkol sa Kabanata 2 ng libro ni Galgani.

Further comment on the bloodbath of August 23

Hindsight is always 20/20. But still, we could have avoided some losses.

During the past weekend, widely circulating news in Bloomberg were already saying that it's probable that FED meeting minutes will show unanimous agreement on QE easing, and that everyone feels that reduction in the US govt's money printing will start in weeks (not next year). In this case, it is not important what date is actually inside Bernanke and Gang's heads, but only the sentiment of big funds, which in turn represent the short-term sentiment in our modestly-size stock market.

Monday could have afforded us 3 days of elbow room to reduce positions two days ahead of the actual release of the minutes, since the minutes could contain one of the dreaded scenario we've been mentioning since months ago.

However 2 days of massive rains and flooding + a holiday conspired. By the time our market resumed, the should-be loss have already accumulated to the minds of foreign masters, and the news on the FED are also already on our faces. Result: -6% poured in one accumulated shot, and almost 7% loss at one point in the trading day! In fact, at opening, most stocks presented only two options for current holders: swallow -5% upfront or average down. The foreigners are merciless in selling down. They dont wait intraday for rallies if exit is their decided direction. (Are we really that miniscule in terms of their portfolio spend?)

The frustration of being at the mercy of foreign funds is for another blogpost. The learning for now is to respect and always be aware of upcoming news overseas similar in nature to a previous one that already hurt us (in this case, that same news of impending QE easing hit us similarly hard, just a few weeks ago). This particular move (and corresponding news) is a sword that was on the top of our heads since June. Some of us just thought that Moody's can somehow neutralize it at least for our market.

Any, now, it's important to sense when will this selling be enough to these foreign funds. Would they really elect to divest all the positions in the Philippines? Will our Chinese compatriots really not use a cent investing during Ghost month? When's the right time to come in? The safest way is to stay on the sidelines and come back September9.

But I think bargains are bargains, and we must attempt to prop up and run our own market when the prices are right. When the prices are fair on the backdrop of our OFW's hard-earned remittances, on the promise of our growth, we should go in. I will gamble even if most will just choose to weather out Ghost month (which will be over in a few days). James K Nava's selection is sound. On top of that lineup, I will also add MPI and JGS (my original picks of the week) on the first page of my watchlist.

Gamble on the Philippines!

Pasawsaw-sawsaw moves lang dapat, mga katoto,

... at itabi agad ang kita. Wag magpapatagal sa baso, 'ika nga sa mga inuman. Magsubi agad ng kita. At kitilin ang pagkatalo kapag masama ang takbo ng presyuhan, o pagkatapos ng average down, e nanghihina na ang ganansya pataas.

Bagamat tinamaan din ako ng kulog ng bagyong pagbagsak kanina, gasino lang ang isinadsad ni ABS,  BEL, at MBT ko. Malakas-lakas pa rin, at nakatabi na ang kita mula sa CPG, TEL, et al. Hindi talaga ako nagtodo dahil kahit papaano, sinusunod ko ang CANSLIM ni O'Neill. Wag na wag daw sasabak nang todo kapag walang 'confirmed uptrend.'

Subalit mukhang nakakatakam na ang presyo ng ilang stocks, kasama na ng grupong Esem. Hhhhmn... baka makataya nang bahagya kahit isa lang kay SM o SMPH.

At dagdag pa diyan, sa ganang akin, marami-rami yata ang araw na lang ang bibilangin e cut-off na ng dibendo-taym. Ayon sa websayt ng PSE, ang mga ito ay malapit na malapit na magpamudmod ng ekstrang kita.

GLO (galante)
TEL (galante)
SGI (pwede na)
MBT (galante)
JFC (galante, lalo't kapag kinumpara sa mga dating ibinibiyaya ni Jollibee)

Ang GTCAP ay nalalapit na rin subalit kuripot ang ibibigay

Kailangan ding obserbahan ang mga ito. Kapag konting pumayapa ang palitan (yung hindi sobrang likot na parang kiti-kiti sa taas-baba ang presyuhan), kailangang tumaya na.

Kumbaga, nagkakaroon ng konting bentahe halimbawa ang TEL, maski bumaksak muli nang 5% pagkataya mo. Maluwag pa rin sa loob na magdagdag sa ibaba dahil may ilang porsyentong elbow room na ibibigay ang dibidendo. Mas kayang magtiis ng sakit kapag may dibidendong siguradong parating.

Kailangang makapagbukas ng online trading bukas, bandang alas diyes y medya, upang makataya sa isa man lang sa mga ito.

Sugod!

Market Skim Through: 23 August 2013-- index stocks behaving like bazurs in terms of losses

A bloody, bloody day--the 2nd bloodiest for the year. It seems that the market added-up the should-be downturns for the last 3 days PSE had to shut down (due to floods), to finally deliver a -6% blow (400-point loss) at a big 12.13 B PhP trading volume. And then it was compounded by the release (on the same morning) of the  dreaded bad news (that we were constantly mentioning as one news that can terribly affect us in short term) about the QE easing of US FED. More rumination on the bad timing in another post.

#	Stock Code	Last	Change	%Change	Value
1	ATN	1.0700	-0.2700	-20.15%	82,490
2	CEB	51.5500	-10.3500	-16.72%	178,727,667
3	FFI	15.1200	-2.7600	-15.44%	106,380
4	MEGW1	2.0700	-0.3300	-13.75%	41,400
5	MCP	9.7300	-1.4300	-12.81%	91,350,205
6	ICTV	0.4100	-0.0550	-11.83%	392,400
7	LC	0.5700	-0.0700	-10.94%	35,154,360
8	SECB	120.0000	-14.5000	-10.78%	242,639,491
9	SMPH	16.0000	-1.9000	-10.61%	523,003,170
10	LCB	0.5900	-0.0700	-10.61%	13,845,750
11	LTG	19.0000	-2.1000	-9.95%	212,513,232
12	AGI	25.1000	-2.6000	-9.39%	731,582,760
13	AEV	43.6000	-4.4000	-9.17%	114,555,890
14	EEI	11.2200	-1.1200	-9.08%	13,085,484
15	RCB	45.0000	-4.4500	-9.00%	80,852,570
16	CLOUD	6.1000	-0.6000	-8.96%	9,760
17	PORT	10.0000	-0.9800	-8.93%	10,000
18	SM	725.0000	-71.0000	-8.92%	1,028,064,575
19	ABSP	36.0000	-3.5000	-8.86%	10,719,260
20	PXP	12.0200	-1.1200	-8.52%	3,839,386

SM, SMPH, AGI, LTG, SECB, and others behaved like it was a JOH or a PHES, with their lost value (-10% running loss most of the day, and a big gap down at the start of trade). MBT minimized its loss at closing, probably due to the nearing stockdivs ex-date.

I had to cut loss on SCC, ABS, and GMA7, while they are not yet plummeting. Only a portion of BDO and MER and a big position on MBT remain. Cash position returned to 30%+. My accumulated gain since I started a fresh port in one broker in June was instantly (in one day) slashed by more than half. 'Old' port at FMS increased its paper losses tremendously, dampened only by dividends earned the past months.