Saturday, April 21, 2018

Workweek 16: Trading Notes

As I previously wrote, after being indifferent with our market and just remaining on cash and preferred stocks, the excitement is going back for short term.

Like many others, Im wondering about the motivation of that big Firstmetrosec for unloading big time last week. If a fund sells that much, it usually needs money for other investment opportunities its manager/s think they have greater chances to profit in. What opportunities are there? Maybe th efund is exiting from the country altogether? Why? 

Well, the value investor in me still prevails, so I bought in two tranches each in AGI and DMC. Just the dividend yield at these prices for both are enough motivation for me to buy. AGI also is still on buyback and the company is doing this daily.

My previously-placed GTM buy with GLO at 1500 was also hit. I will closely observe GLO in the coming week for extreme volatility. Might have a chance for a quick-in-and-out, just for fun. 

Im noting of the remarkable resilience of JFC. I was hoping it would dip to 245, so I can buy, but there's strong support even coming from foreigners.

Others in the wishlist (which has a good chance, apologies to all those holding, but at least youll have a chance to add, if ever):
1) PGOLD will go back to 40. The sellers are poised to sell more next week on speculation. I'll enter at 38.
2) for RLC to go to 18, its SRO price. I fucking failed to avail because I was overseas.
3) MPI, I'll buy at 4, regardless of all negative news against it. Its P/E is just too attractive at that price.
4) My TEL position which took a hit is still HOLD. I wont be rattled because of the expected dividend yield even at current level. Will add to current position at 1200-1250 range.
5) Why is MWC being battered down after it comfortably breached 30 just a few weeks ago? Will read-up on this Ayala stock and possibly enter near 20.
6) MEG is also on the downward trend and so volatile. But I will enter at 4 and add successively even if it goes down to 3. So cheap.
7) URC is also getting attractive. Regardless of the negative effect of TRAIN to its products, their product pricing will become stable and consumers will begin buying again once they get a feel of supposedly higher disposable income. 120 is an entry point for me.
8) Eager to get a good entry point to get the index (FMETF) also. I will start at 7K, if indeed it is battered down further. This is still a good adage for newbies and veterans alike: buy the index if you're not confident in beating the market in your attempt to go retail.

I'll add notes on other companies as I read up in the succeeding days.

It's interesting how the other funds did not follow the rattling last week. What will happen next? If the index goes further down, which index stocks will be the most battered to cause it?


Wednesday, April 18, 2018

Notes on today's bloodbath

I'm not focused on the market for the past few weeks, I just opened now during lunch break and blogging also quickly now.

This is is definitely bringing back excitement. I might be doing weekly trading diary again.

And so..



While--

  1. I LIKE our index going down, because it validates the big cash position that I've been keeping already for some time (it's now 85% now if including the position I have in preferred stocks).
  2. There's a probability that our index will touch 6800-6900 level on intermediate term. 
  3. The uncertainty of TRAIN will bring volatility with downward bias, especially for previous favorites JFC, PGOLD and all other in consumer goods. 
But take note...
There's just one fund who's exiting and wreaking havoc today. 



Yes kids, that's how small our stock market is--one fund who wants out and there's huge bloodbath. Further, there will be panic sellers that will follow. And Technical Analysis (TA) followers who will have no choice, but to sell also will bring down our index further.

BUT think about it. You will profit here for short and intermediate term. You will be further lucky if the timing of your entry coincides to when the one fund finishes unloading. But you cannot time correctly of course, so the best way is still to get value stocks.

For short term, if you want to be safer, get those that have 1) high dividend yield, so you have further 'protection" and/or 2) get

These are ones Im looking I jutted down right now.
1) I think I'll buy AGI in my one port without it. The buyback should shore it up quickly the moment the fund is done unloading.
2) DMC is very attractive at these level. Close to 5-year low, without any fundamental business reason, and close to 5% div yield.
3) I will still buy the duopoly TEL and GLO, for both dividend and 3 years the new telco would need to cause any dent in earnings (if ever this new telco indeed comes to fruition and not just PR of the admin). More on this on a separate post.

Will definitely buy some today.

Good luck.

Thursday, March 22, 2018

Go to cash or preferred stocks

I've been on cash since very early this year. In fact, I've cut wrongly on some stocks that rallied back, but it's ok. The global environment is not steady with tariffs and trade war being mentioned all-around. And considering we haven't heard these words in a long time, it appears we might be going on a negative if not very volatile ride. 

If you're not comfortable sitting in cash, some of Preferred stocks paying out 5 - 8% per year are getting attractive. 

To put money where my mouth is, this is my current port: 


And 40% still in cash.

Don't also disregard buying the index (FMETF) when it becomes attractive. To me, 7000 PSEi is a buy.

I will list down target prices of other "dependables" within the next two weeks.

Good luck.

Tuesday, October 10, 2017

The most successful year so far...


For posterity, Im writing here that, because of
1) 'high conviction' in NIKL, JFC, PGOLD (buying while price is going down, for no fundamental reason, other than big fundies going out),
2) recovery of BEL and AGI and some ROCK,
3) and in-and-out moves in RLC, TEL, MPI, and others
... 2017 is my most successful year in trading so far. I'm showing 33% year-to-date, which now reimbursed me the expenses needed to furnish a condo, which was incidentally bought with company stock options way back June.


Goes to show that one does not need to dwell in Bazurs like CAL to be able to get to above 30%+ gain and beat the index. 

Yes, everyone is a genius in a bull market. But newbies, please always check the geniuses' and your port if they are beating the index. 

Year to date, PSE index is already showing 22.77% gain. Your port should be beating this. Otherwise, better to have just lodged your money in an index-base UITF or mutual funds. Or you should have bought FMETF instead.  



Not everything is perfect though, 
1) I still have a laggard in PHEN, but my cash position is back to at least 50% in all ports, waiting for some easing down in the index and other 'dependable' favorites (read back on them).  
2) Any upward tick in TEL would add to my 33%+ gain. Any big downward movement could subtract or have me selling TEL positions to have more cash in the war chest.  
3) I also envy those who had very long-term conviction in AC. I started actively trading 2013, and now AC is almost double of its price back then. What a vastly easier way to trade. 
4) Finally, bought preferred stocks GLOPP and DDPR, just to have to park some cash in. The index will beat me if PSEI indeed hits 9000 as prodded by SM, AC, ALI. These are stocks that I haven't touched for a long while already. 

But I'm happy and fulfilled in this 'trading' portion of my life (not everything is ok personally). Finally, took out some money to buy 3 expensive gadgets (more on these fruits later), just so I remember one good thing that happened in 2017, and to buy a bit more happiness on the side. 

Materialistic, yes, but brings happiness undeniably. Withdraw some, to enjoy the fruits of correct picking in our bourse.  

Thursday, September 21, 2017

On Joseph Calata, the asshole



Fact: Calata is an asshole. He's a pretentious wannabe big-league mfuckr, but he's just an ampaw crook inside. He has screwed and will screw more retail investors many times over.

The PSE is a source of funds to him. He is flashy, vain, greedy and has no shame. Don't pin hopes about him doing the "right" or "fair" thing. If I'm holding a big chunk of CAL, I will go the activist route. Wreak havoc on ASM's, support any initiative that would lead to his removal as Chairman and CEO.

Whatever happened to this case?

Monday, October 10, 2016

Trading Diary Workweek 40

3 tranches of PLDT bought. Noticed the news about the Philippines Competition Commission contesting its purchase from SMC for the extra 700 MHz allocation. Noticed that GLO is going down too. Will buy that at 1600. As I've said elsewhere, I will buy the duopoly any time of the day.

Notice that nickel prices are going down, and so is my huge position in NIKL. I was tempted to sell at the small remaining gain, but opted to stay put for one more week.

In my nimble port though, I sold already NIKL at 7.1 at at modest 5% gain.

Im not observing anything in particular, except the index and the continuous selling from foreigners.

Noticed the IPO plans of Shakey's. I will buy some.

Sunday, October 2, 2016

Trading Diary Workweek 39

Cutloss deep for 2/3 of position in LC at 0.182. Many figures loss. Then it promptly went back to 0.19 levels the following day. Damn you. LC. Can only smile with the wreck Regina Lopez is doing to the mining stocks.

Placed a big bet (10 tranches) in NIKL. Why? You must read up.

It's now showing +5%. Will probably sell at +20%.

Wednesday, September 28, 2016

Dear Regina Kulubotna,

Dear Regina Kulubotna,


Stop running your department like a vendetta machine. You must understand the effect of your capriciousness and bias to the overall economy. You cannot demand heaven-like scenario to just pop up suddenly in all mining sites just because you are suddenly there at DENR. You also must take care of the small-time miners you're displacing. They wont be able to eat if you just suddenly pull the plug on their livelihood, while you still stand to enjoy your ginger tea and aromatherapy in the morning.

You cannot bask in what you think are praises from environmentalist, while you are bringing down our GDP and causing stability in metal prices worldwide. Hardcore is always bad. Hardcore roads lead to cliffs.

And for chrissakes, stop wearing sleeveless. Your armpit is already like a ragged open pit mine. It won't win you support to stop open pit mining if you show them. Even with tons of your time spent in yoga and meditation eklat, you are still old, and you look old, Madame.

And you look like a Mahjongera.

Trading Diary Workweek 38: Enjoying the Fruits

Google: Tao Expedition.

I snorkeled


I kayaked


detoxed in accommodations without electricity.


I ate. 

And enjoyed my gains.

As I suggested elsewhere, one shouldn't just compound and compound. One should also spend for trips, because remember we area also buying time. Yes you can spend for this without hesitation when youre a billionaire at 60, but would you still feel physically the same? You will regret compounding and saving too much while you could have reaped a bit and enjoyed a great vacation better with youth and vigor.

Monday, September 26, 2016

Trading Diary Workweek 37

My sell for NIKL last week was hit; no more NIKL. Nimble port has 75% cash and all remaining positions are negative, 

Nothing done in main port, except placed two-trance buys in TEL at 1650. 

MWC showing nice profit, Might begin to sell at 33 or a bit lower. 

Monday, September 12, 2016

Trading Diary Workweek 36 -- Here comes the rain again?

Bought or sold nothing. Equities worldwide are on the slide, foreign selling now consistent in our shores. Have to respect this.

Observing my MWC pick. Foreign buying still persists. Support at 28 should hold.

Noticed foreign buying in AGI earlier in the week. But it tapered off and other foreign brokers fought to sell.

Looking to sell my NIKL, probably at +15-20%? (around 6.9)

My small tranche in VLL took a slide. Looking to add at 5.00. 

WISHLIST: would love to see GLO back to 1600, Can't go wrong holding the duopoly.

PGOLD at 36 will also be a solid buy. DMCI at 9.2 is a one tranche buy. (

Cash position ready. 

Saturday, September 3, 2016

Trading Diary Work week 35

Bought one tranche of MWC, and another tranche of TA (now PHEN) and that's it.

Noticed that some more dividends got credited in my main port. Not sure which they are for.

Yes, Im noticing the downtrend of the index. The Duterte rally was supposed to be over, the violence in the streets is resulting to distaste with investors, there's supposed to be instability, etc, etc. Whatever the reason is, it is evident that the foreigners are pulling out. This is the main indicator important to me.

And Im ok with a supposed 'correction,' with the healthy cash position that I have right now. On short-term, i'll be hunting for the blue chip that foreigners are still supporting.

Wednesday, August 31, 2016

Pick of the week is MWC.

I added three tranches myself to a long time existing position. Consistent foreign buying in the past few days. And today, they are not hiding anymore:


And there's a sudden, furious, jump in volume trades!


I think 32 will be easy on short term.

Monday, August 29, 2016

Trading Diary Workweek 34

Received significant dividends from GLOPP and TEL. Ready to deploy these extra funds if there comes a very attractive entry price in a company with solid growth.

Saw some downtrend in my main port, but did not really feel any alarm. Good call, because I was seeing some marginal gains from where I started the week by late Thursday and early Friday.

But in essence, I did not trade last week, save for one-tranche GTM-buy that was hit for TA, at 2,23.

Sunday, August 21, 2016

Picks of the week, if ever these issues reach these prices this week.

MEG at 4.5 is one-tranche buy.

TA at 2.23 is a one-tranche buy.

TEL at 1700 is a buy.

Mood:

  • Im watching closely the foreign buying-selling. They are net sells in straight days recently, although small in aggregate value. Cash position enough for war. 
  • Still staying away from bazuras. No time to play with them. Toxic with dayjob recently.