Random Thoughts

1) I thought Bernanke and Yellen were very clear that tapering will not start until unemployment is firmly 6.5% or better. Latest report is best at 7%. 0.5% is still a big gap, which would probably need a 3 months more time to close. But the funds are withdrawing in droves now. Are they preparing ahead? Are they foreseeing that this will be closed sooner than 3 months? Or are they betting that the FED will break their word and taper even before reaching that target? (The Fed of course is also being looked at now by Congress for having accumulated a very fat balance sheet from printing and printing money).

2) Im sure many countrymen are shell-shocked and frustrated with this tapering news that has been hanging on our heads for 6 months now. Those that are already nursing negative 20% paper loss (or more) sure are saying to just get over with it already.

3) If not for the profits that I took from MEG, MBT, et al that I took during the small upturns, and the cash position that Ive maintained, I'll be shell-shocked myself.

Profits bagged in August-October provided some luxury and mindset to cut-loss freely on Haiyan-hit EDC and FGEN. And in our small-sized PSE, it's even more important (than vastly-sized NYSE or Hang Seng markets, for example) to maintain a 30% cash position always. Before entering a new position, you must be thinking at the same time the cash outs that must be done in another. It also helps to keep only a small number of stocks in your portfolio in uneven times. More than 10 is already difficult especially if the overall sentiment is strong bearish, and the impending right move is to cut-loss.

4) My own bet is that tapering will not start until February, but what I think is moot. What the bigger fund managers think are what's important. We should ride the wave of their thoughts.

5) My small moves the past two weeks was partially influenced in disbelief that we're back to square one, like it's January 2012 in PSEi like there were no good news, no stellar gdp reports, no upgrades from Moody's et al, that happened throughout the year. I think we must get at least +10% from Jan 1 to Dec 31, 2013. We must end above 6100 by Dec 29?