Wednesday, October 23, 2013

Late Pick of the Week: Look for higher lows in JGS, MBT, MEG, but if you're eager to position now, choose TEL

I knew I have time to monitor the market this week; there is valuable time to spend to hunt for short terms gains, so I disposed some green in MBT, MEG, AGI, and AEV to raise cash. I expect that sentiments of some locals will be to dispose at our current 6600 levels. Some of our countrymen who were jittered before are probably exiting at near breakeven, so it's time to dispose some green and wait for them to dip again by at least 3%--better at minus 5%--to re-take similar position size.

For example, I disposed a huge chunk of MEG at 3.91, the moment that I saw that 1) the stock is already oversold, and 2) it's too weak to even break 3.95. And so, 3.91 less 5% is 3.71. Im waiting since then to enter some at 3.71, add another position at 3.70, and then a huge buy position at 3.68. I still haven't been blessed with shares at these levels, but am waiting. If MEG continued strongly at this very high RSI. I still have 20% of my original position. I just have to live with my bet that it's more probable for MEG to cool off a bit and be below oversold levels.  

Same applies with AEV, AGI, and MBT... I disposed all or huge chunks of these stocks, and now Im waiting for their higher lows to materialize before getting in again (first reentry at -3%, ideal at -5%).


But since I wanted to take some new positions and not be holding too much cash, I took positions in TEL and DMPL as well. I think TEL is undervalued at this time, and will perform some +5% in short term. Why? 

1) its forward P/E is 16, while its only competitor GLO is trading at 23 - 30 P/E. I know that the Ayala's enjoy some premium over competitors because of their perceived better managers, but that disprity is just too much. 
2) the BPO industry is experiencing tremendous growth and TEL should be one of the main beneficiaries  
3) PLDT's DSL is way faster than those stupid Tattoos and mobile broadband scams.
4) If youre caught ipit even at -10%, there's still some margin of safety. TEL always pay hefty divs to make up for it.

DMPL I placed a small position in because 1) its current price is below its current at SGX, 2) I feel that the market hasnt fully taken in the impact of the acquisition of the US Del Monte business. This makes for some good reading regarding DMPL:

http://research.maybank-ib.com/pdf/document/Del_Monte_141013c_5174.pdf

Besides that, Christmas is nearing. We're approaching that time for Buko and Fruit Salads. That would have some Del Monte Fruit Cocktails by default.


Again, these picks of the week have time frame of at least four weeks. It's time to revise your portfolios for intermediate and long term and prepare for the surge until March.

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