Late Pick of the Week for Week 40: still MEG and watch the banks, especially MBT and BDO

Was out on several days for a teambuilding, was not able to actively participate in the market, was not able to make a pick of the week. And I became aware just now that finally the long-awaited Moody's upgrade was announced! But was also surprised that the increase after the lunchtime press release is just a measly +0.4%, and that the foreigners are still net sellers at this time. These facts, in combo, are surprising indeed.

It seems that the standoff between the Lower House and White House in the US bears more impact to us more than any good news. And October 17 seems to be the critical date to watch. This is the day when the US begins to default on some payables, if they dont get their act together. Imagine the gravity of this 'milestone' if ever it happens.

Since I will also be out tomorrow afternoon until Thursday (I dont know if James can post), and the only solution in my case is to be cautious. I'll still maintain my cash position, probably at minimum 25%, and will only place bets on MEG (which appears to be on the path of improvement again). I will also add a bit to existing green position MBT, which went down from 91 to 84, despite Moody's and other analysts singling out the strength of the bank and its current cheap valuation. BDO closed at a thick bid volume, this is almost guaranteed to be green tomorrow.

Others are recommending releasing all cash--If you do this, it will be a bet on the one good news. It's sound to do if you have time to follow price movement, so you will get have a better chance to make the right decision--whether it's time to cut loss or take profit. It's in knowing when either decision is needed.

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I dont have time to fully research VLL, JGS, GTCAP, AGI, and other 'solid' non-bazur favorites of recent weeks. But if the Moody's upgrade 'overpowers' negative sentiment, they should be among the stocks that join the upward trend.

Include AC in this fray. It is almost assured to go back to 650 level if market really begins to go upward because of Moody's.

Good luck!