About AGI, at this time

Weeks ago, I've listed AGI as among the issues I eagerly await to be given a chance to go back to. Among other reasons, I believe in AGI because

--this is the best-diversified conglomerate among its peers. 

--foreign funds has consistently show support for it.  

--Andrew Tan also is still hungry. He will continue to take risks and put money on opportunities that he sees.

--Ive never lost a trade with it (so far). This was one constant source of 'consolation prizes' many times over last year even during the hard downturn. 

But it's a foreign transaction that apparently now brought down AGI. Fidelity Fund, a big mutual fund in the US, apparently made a side deal with Andrew and bought a block at a big discount. At what discount? Appears they are not required to disclose.

In any case, this brought the wrath of other foreign investors. They sold down hard and perhaps attempted to bring down AGI to the perceived price that Fidelity bought it at.

And then there was also the lackluster earnings report for the most recent quarter.

The combination of the two negative 'catalysts' brought down price quickly by minus 20%, while peers such as AC continued to increase. Now, technical analysts will tell us that the downtrend is sure and continuing (see two parallel lines going down). It's not safe to get in yet.

Now, what to do?

Given that we dont know the buying price of Fidelity, and this is already a done deal, the first question is: has the market priced-in this factor by this time?

And then second question, can AGI recover to its winning ways in earnings on short and medium term? One subsidiary that reported negative is McDonald's. Can McD become a contributor soon? (More on McD as a member of AGI in another post)?

The forward P/E of AGI is now 14 and showing -7% one-year return. Compare this to AC  which have 25 P/E and +30% gain. If you consider just these data, it's time to start betting.

But if you are guided by TA,  you have to wait for around 25.3 to be breached convincingly (with good volume) before you get in.

For me, I entered AGI in my nimbler port at 24 and promptly sold all at 25 in 2 days when I saw that it is having difficulty breaching 25.

Then in my main port, I have been averaging down since this issue went below 25.3. Now my average price for 3 tranches is showing -4%. Im putting aside Technical Analysis mean time and just placed my next buy at 23.9. I wont be afraid even if AGI becomes 50% of my total port. I think all the four reasons that are mentioned in the beginning of this post are still true. It still sounds good to believe in the fundamentals of AGI.