Tuesday, September 16, 2014

About PSEi threatening 7400 (two weeks ago), TEL, and unsureness


I've sold my last holding that was showing double-digit gain two weeks ago. Ive been able to harvest that one big winner, TEL, because Ive been holding and averaging down on it even when the issue dipped down to 2600 levels last year.

I began selling when it threatened 3K earlier this year, when I thought it will hit a big resistance. I continued to sell in tranches until just a portion remained. Of course, if I had insider info that TEL will benefit an MSCI rebalancing, I would have held all and then sold in one chunk instead. But I dont have that foresight, and I was comfortable with the +5%, +8%, +10%, then +17% (for the last tranche) profit even if it goes up further from hereon.

Another reason that reinforced my decision to sell is the impression that too few (to me) stocks are taking the index up. It was noticeable that a only a few highly-weighted issues are taking our index higher. Unlike the surge last year when almost overwhelming number of issues were hitting 52-week highs left and right (even second liners like ELI and ROCK were being bought up to record highs early last year), the index increase today could just be funds training their guns on less-than-10 specific stocks.

This should bring unsure-ness, but if you have faith in fundamentally-sound stocks that are stil showing strength (like SECB), there might be another +17% around the corner to enjoy.

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