On Banks During Week 30

No, not Tyra, but

BDO
BPI
CHIB
EW
MBT
PNB
RCB
SECB
UBP
AUB
PBB

Our modestly-sized stock market seems to be starting on the uptrend but these stocks appear either just flat, range trading, or in the case of SECB, continuing to go down. They are also relatively cheap in terms of P/E and general expectation, considering that it's well known that banks rake in after investment rating upgrades and all. Nobody would have thought BPI would go back to 92; and who would have predicted two months ago that MBT will be back ranging between 105 - 115?

The short-term concern supposed to be is that these banks have lost a lot during the recent PSE bloodbath and that their Q1 earnings might have been erased by the severe, hurtful market forces of last June. I wont pretend to be an expert attempting to valuate the perceived trading loss vs. their other business and revenue stream (loans, fees, remittances) to validate if the claim is true.  I would just say that the fund managers must be carefully assessing the exposure of each firm (theyre not too many after all) in bonds and equities, and making their moves based a carefully wrought-out reports. Is SECB, for example, the most exposed in their analysis, so theyre continuing to sell it? If youre a short-term trader, best to be safe, listen to what these fundies are sounding-off with their moves, and stay on the sidelines.

But if

1) you are a medium-term trader and is known to wait out result of a gamble in 3 months
2) you believe that Moody's will make its long overdue upgrade this quarter (theyre a damn pompous, self-important, prissy agency if they dont upgrade us in Q3)
3) you are foreseeing that the stock market will go back to 7000 levels in one month...

I would say cheap is cheap.

Choose your pet bank, and place small bets now!

I have averaged down on SECB (I see their branches sprouting out all over metro and think the  20% dividend ex-date will get this stock re-energized on to its upward track, at least on medium term),
Im retaining my BPI core and watching closely if I need to average down further here,
MBT is my pick for week 30.
I would also buy BDO again if it goes below 83.
and closely watching UBP (their CEO is a stalwart of investment banking)

Good luck to us!