Tuesday, March 18, 2014

Pick of the Week for Wk12 is FLI (and buy a bit of TA if it does another short handle)

I'd like to speculate a bit this week, and so I added on my existing position in FLI. I saw some foreign accumulation recently and thought that it has gone sideways long enough. FLI has good below-10 valuation, it is among the properties that hasnt gone up much yet, and its projects have a clear path and sched, their mall and hotel in Albang are both doing well, their land bank at that part of Manila is uneatable, BUT... this at best is still a very risky hunch-based bet more than based any deeper analysis. The stock is not trading as high a volume as MEG (it can be brought down any time by a big fund--local or foreign), it's not a 'visible' in terms of press releases compared to A Tan stocks, it failed to break resistances several times in the past, it's also not nearing a div announcement (this usually pays in June).

[In fact, if you chose to place your bet in SMC, you could have achieved much much higher gain upfront. I just decided last year to place zero money with RSA, until his borrowing stops to a level in balance with SMC's earnings growth].

Also, TA might go down to 2.0 before it goes up again. Im going to add to my existing position in TA, at that level, partly for the purpose of releasing some cash. My faith in this company presided by Dean Viray remains.

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