Pick of the week for Wk 15 is: take your fingers off the buy button mean time

Index may continue on to a downward channel. Yes the channel's slope is shallow, but it is a down trend nevertheless. 

The consolation is that the foreigners are continuing to buy.

• yesterday, they bought 1.4 B PhP worth net.  
• month = 19.5 B
• quarter = Php17.5B

However, I dont like what Im seeing about a 'non-widespread' and very selective buying that they're doing. I dont have solid stat but I feel that they are pushing only specific stocks and fighting each other--or worse, just exchanging short-term profit on the others. This is very different compared to the 'high-conviction' uptrend last year.

In other words, if we have 30 issues in the PSEi, they only have about 5 being clearly pushed up for long-term holding. .

Add to the worry us locals, who were probably jailed and languishing in perceived misery, as far back as May. We are the ones constantly feeding the foreigners obviously. The even more pessimistic pinoys are not joining the buying probably as a rule, and probably just want to get out. One whole sector--the banks--are also being set aside even by the both locals and foreigners. How can we go up solidly if one important industry sector is being let down.

I also dont like that the quarterly window dressing yesterday only jumped 1.09%. This is not decisive buying up.  And then what if the foreigners suddenly decided to test-unload for a week? Or when Russia steps on to Ukraine's capital? We can always tumble down by -3% in successive days again,.

All these only mean that we are not yet in a clear general market uptrend, so, again if you itch to participate, do not go all in. And put special attention to high-dividend payers and fundamentally-solid companies

One optimistic scenario is for index to bounce steeply and highly after forming a handle toward 6200. This would mean that the weaker hands were shaken out by the wily foreigners, and so we'll be ready to test 7K again after that. But even if it goes this way, it's better to be safe and exchange of giving up profit for 'surefootedness.' Meaning, wait for the breakout rather than going on all-in at a supposed bottom.

My personal plan: I will start buying only on two conditions 1) until we reach 6250, or 2) when index breaks out of 6550. If it goes down further below 6250, I will add until 5900. If it goes down further below 5900 (10% from recent peak), then it's painful cutloss time again. In any case, I was able to cash in on many issues the past 8 weeks, so there's a war chest that will make me brave a cutloss season (if it indeed comes again).

If it breaks 6550, then good for us. If this happens, it's bonanza time again, and we should only start to think about selling come May-August.

Mean time, it's just watch. If I play a bit, my fingers will be ready to sell those new positions within the same week.