Thursday, April 10, 2014

Looking Good but (but with -->caveats)

My port is going up, cash position is healthy.

News reports say that inflation is still within acceptable range and the BSP is sending indicators that it will not be increasing interest rates soon.
-->Although inflation in itself still worries me. Because of my day job, I know that pork prices is increasing steeply because of factors overseas. The boom in construction is ongoing, while the new cement plants of LRI, et al are still not yet on line. These will continue to have a natural inflationary effect on local prices.

Previously sleeping stocks in my main port have awakened with a bang. FLI, perhaps because of its well-crafted press release, was again noticed by both foreign and local funds. I liked how FLI included these sentences in the release:



Lot prices at Filinvest City have hit a high of Php186,000 per square meter, significantly above the previous highest price achieved during the height of the property boom in 1997, right before the Asian Financial Crisis, and the price of Php115,000 Php per square meter in 2012.



I like how they highlighted that lot prices in Alabang has nowhere to go but up. And that no one has the better land bank (still for sale) in that part of Manila than FLI. 

-->But I still dont like Filinvest's project locations in Metro Manila. Their Oasis condo compound in Pasig is an Oasis of because if becomes a sea of floodwater when it rains. Im still ambivalent over FLI as a long-term holding. 

TA is also showing some vigor again.
-->but some locals just wanted to exit, impeding its upsurge.

The banks are showing strength at last. Im green again in BPI (entered just last week) and MBT (old holding + returns). I still have some SECB also. 

-->But again, any policy change by the BSP will zap even a 10% gain in any one bank. 

So, bottom line, I might sell big in May and/or June. And I still intend to sell at 6800 as earlier set and declared in this blog. 

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