Friday, April 18, 2014

Technical Analysis and Multiple Trendlines

As most of the readers of this blog knows, Im not fully into Technical Analysis. I like more 
1) the news (especially if my current disposition is that of a short-term to intermediate trader)
2) balance sheet and p&l statement, 
3) the caliber of the CEO and other executives of the company, 
4) the current price of the stock compared to its growth potential, 
5) and the inherent growth story of the firm 
to speak for themselves. 
I also try to make myself aware of foreign buying. 

But TA believers would say that the chart should be able to reflect all these. Meaning the sentiment on fundamental and management should all be in the chart. I dont agree. 

Within the chartists sphere, these have some weight on my buying or selling moves:
--the cup and handle patterns is based on a solid psychological nature of humans, so Im on the lookout for this pattern always. 
--simple moving averages at 50 (for short term) and exponential moving average at 150 or 200 (for intermediate). I also watch these because many chartists are supposed to buy (or sell) in droves when these are broken. We of course want to ride with them, and hopefully pluck some short-term profit. 
--RSI is okay as a guide if the increase or decrease is fairly gradual. A jerky increase up and down are more news or hype-based; RSI is invalidated in these cases. 
--spikes in volume are also very meaningful. 
--psychological supports and resistances (especially if the number converges with a moving average) also appear valid, especially on large-volume traded stocks 
--if i know i will have time to monitor short-term trading (where, win-or-lose, I intend to sell back the same position that I bought in  to 3 weeks), I also check candlesticks.  

One TA area that appears iffy to me is the turf of trendlines. 

A famous chartist getting paid for his analysis (selling subscription) was spouting last year that our index will reach 8500, solely because of the black, purple, and moss green trendlines that are supposed to be pointing upward of 8000. Those to me seem arbitrary, especially since the P/E of our index was already a very expensive 20+.

And then beginning on the sell-down last June, an infinite number of triangles and lines can be formed, almost at leisure. Could trendlines be nothing more than pastime for investors, as kids enjoy drawing sketches and figures on their play time?  

In any case the most optimist among us should be happy that chartists should be joining the buying today since there appears to be an upward channel that formed early this year (see the two short parallel lines on the far right of the chart below). 


Speaking if channels, TEL is supposed to be on an upward channel Oct 2012 to near July, but it was turned into a 'confirmed' downward channel since June 2013 to February 2014. But an upward channel can also be simultaneously from last November 2013 to present. So even with channels, there are multiple readings possible. 


Anyway, there's no use becoming snobbish of methods. I would agree that the best compromise is to choose a 'pet' based on present value and fundamentals (or 1 to 5 above), and then use TA to decide on the moment when to bet high. In short, choose a company that you will trust and then read some chicken intestines to reinforce the decision when to make big bets or... cut loss for that matter. 

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