Tuesday, April 22, 2014

Trans-asia .... to hell and back

My two portfolios (one nimble for short to intermediate trading; and one main (for intermediate to long-term) )  have so far beaten the index by a wide margin. One of the big contributors is because we decided to stick it out with Trans-asia. 

It was like going to hell with Trans-asia late last year, when WEALTH and other funds decided to sell-down brutally the issue the moment that the news about a partner's abandonment of the drilling in Palawan came out. 


From a 52-wk high near 3.0, it tumbled down to 1.4, which means the stock shed more than 50% of its value. Even when it was hovering at a high of 2.4, just before the plummet down, still almost half of its value was lost. It was a hard splat, making those of us remaining in TA needing the price to double just to break even.

Possibly, part of WEALTH's purpose that time is to see how low can TA go before it's good to buy back. But still, I bought and bought until at 1.88, 1.55, 1.5, 1.43, etc mainly because I can not understand the big weight that WEALTH put in the one area of TA's business. I thought TA's management already has good foresight that the petroleum arm of the company, and its risks, may compromise the view of the market toward the whole company, so they announced early on that a separate company will be listed and gave away future shares as dividend. There was sincerity here that you cannot see in many company. I also cant imagine the other partner in the drilling abandoning the project altogether.

From a very deep bottom, TA has come back +70% starting when it was announced that the drilling project will continue. I have been selling only gradually the huge position that Ive accumulated. And now, analysts are harking left and right that the target price of this issue is 4 PhP.

I still have substantial position. I may sell half as our index nears 7 K, and retain sizeable core shares for long term (3-5 years). I wont leave this resilient stock. Its opportunities for growth is very wide. And I owe a lot of gains last year and this year to TA. This has a bright present and future.

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