Monday, September 16, 2013

Choose to be conservative with a cash position (maybe just for this week)

PSEi broke through convincingly its short-term moving average. MACD is also now [also convincingly] above signal line. To chartists, both are signals to buy.



Technical Analysts believe that the chart should already contain all the story and emotions (or everything 'priced-in'), including the plans and anxiety of the participants of the market. This could mean that the price improvement show there are needless worries for the upcoming FED meeting. And that stocks that jumped high today will jump higher in the coming days. The next resistance levels are 6400 and 6500. At that level, we might see SM at 850 and MBT at 90+. So, given this, what should be our 2-week plan?

I would love to say that it's safe to go long now. Meaning, stop the quick cutloss and stop selling at 3-5% according to our rules in this type of market; hold for longer time periods instead, and probably shoot for 20%.

But I'll be choosing a semi-conservative route. Half of my gtcap was sold earlier on an automatic sell-point set last week (at +6%), this helps me prepare more cash for Thursday. I will also sell some green MBT this morning again to ready higher cash position. And then I will also observe the moves of foreigners more. Even if the stocks that rose already (ike GTCAP, SM, and MBT) surge up to 52-week highs from here on, I think there are plenty of opportunities with other stocks. FLI, FDC, SCC's also have good earnings, but have not yet surged up at this time.

So, Cash is still a useful defensive position at this time. Even if this is now a start of a true uptrend, and we miss some of the equities that already jumped higher, there are still other nice ones (still cheap) to ride in. I recently saw in one presentation that PSE is 60% a listing of fundamentally solid companies. Even if the first 30% already is on an eventual uptrend, we'll still have the other 30%, which we can easily find (our PSE isn't that big yet).

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