Sunday, September 15, 2013

Pick of the week for week 38: Still GTCAP

Im making my pick of the week one day early because this recommendation is good only until Wednesday (a day before Bernanke's presscon).

The pick is still GTCAP, banking on the probable scenario that not all funds anchored to the PSEi has shifted yet, and they will only do it in the coming days. Index inclusion can cause a stock to jump anywhere between 2 to 8% on the day of the index change itself. My own sell point is 830, but if price jump shows weakness until Wednesday, Im ok at 815ish.

Or, if the opposite happens--say, there's a sell down, for some reason like early jitters due to QE tapering-- and GTCAP goes down even to 750 or 700 again, it is still safe to hold. It's a fundamentally sound company. These solid are earnings surprises of the firm the past three periods:


and projected growth.

Take note that all of GTCAP's subsidiaries are growing, except for GT Power which might wait until 2015 for some of its plants to be on line.  

Toyota, have interesting lineup of new models coming. And don't forgetL one of the things that enriched ofw families buy is a car--and Innovas, Vios, et al are all safe bets for them.

Federal land, AXA, and especially MBT are also showing good earnings increases.

So, it's safe to be 'ipit' for a few weeks if it comes to that. Even if GTCAP is not a stock with 'brand' like Ayala, it's a solid and growing conglomerate.

Im also about to include MBT again as additional pick of the week, because it was showing strength late last week. However, its stock divs payment date is tomorrow. And many are inclined to dispose holdings within the week when they receive stockdivs. Since many will be aiming to increase cash position (to prepare for Thursday FED presscon), they also might be disposing these perceived 'additional stocks' first, .

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