Thursday, August 8, 2013

Update on pick of the week for Wk 32


Although it may just be random walk in the end, it is still better to study ahead, plan, and follow that plan.

Would like to write for posterity my own progress from when I posted my plan from last Monday. 

"MPI is also worth watching and betting small bets in if it flirts with 4.93 - 4.96 again." 

I entered MPI at 4.9 and 4.85, and sold all at 5.08 (posted yesterday, triggered today) for a good 4-digit gain. Not bad for 2 day's 'work.' Although, this stock might continue to go up (I should have stuck to my original sell post at 5.14), it's always good to profit in a market that is not in a clear uptrend.

"I was about to choose a pick of the week from SCC, MER, MBT, and MEG, betting that at least one will make a substantial bounce in the coming days,"

I bought MEG last week and sold early at 3.23 this week for a small coffee-budget gain, but MEG continued to go up to 3.26. Added MBT at a low 102.5 and then it recovered and now trading sideways at 106-107. Both are good moves, bottom-line.

Did not do anything with SCC and just retained my holdings in MER (although I should have added). SCC increased marginally and MER increased considerably. So all four 'pick candidates" practically did well.

My mistake was entering AEV at 46.1. This was not in the list but I thought that the conglomerate is too cheap at current price, regardless of the unimpressive  earnings report. Although price today is at 47, this will gap down on Monday. I'll closely observe AEV if I need to cut loss or cut at breakeven (damage is brokers fee). Either way no regrets, a bet's a bet. Do not enter in a market that is not in a confirmed uptrend if you want to have all your moves come out right (with greater probability).



In the end, Cash, as recommended, proved to be the safest and rightest bet. There's still a dangerous number of previous-favorites-but-now-diving-down this week. Also, imagine if one veered to a Sy stock , he/she could have lost more than 5% in a couple of days. It just happened that we intended to devote time on the market, and it's good to make picks (stocks that you studied ahead for a good entry price) and place small bets since we're focused any way. Let's just remember to continue to keep a big cash position, during a non-uptrend-market and in a ghost month at that!


Watch out also for news and updates about FED stimulus in the coming week.

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