Whatever it is, remember to take profit early

The market gained +3.59%.

Some are calling it dead cat or technical bounce, others assign it to the GDP growth press release. 

Technical bounce is short word for people like me buying, after thinking that prices has reached bottom and should be rising up asap. But that buying was also done on faith that our economy is growing vigorously, and that the firms that are part of that growth does not deserve the humongous minus-10%-in-one day that we're seeing the past days.   Therefore, we can say that the increase is a combination of both. 

My risky buys in GTCAP and AGI paid off, although GTCAP's increase has some luck and good timing in it (it is to be included in PSEi by Sept 16). AGI on the other hand is one of the most resilient stock I am eager to come back to since divesting for profit early August. Also took minimum tranche positions in CPG, TA, Im down to 20% cash today.

	Stock Code	Last	Change	%Change	Value
1	MCP	9.0500	1.1800	14.99%	38,031,116
2	GTCAP	780.0000	90.0000	13.04%	429,077,175
3	SEVN	105.0000	12.0000	12.90%	172,295
4	LTG	18.0000	2.0000	12.50%	349,055,466
5	WIN	0.2400	0.0250	11.63%	2,400
6	ABS	34.0000	3.4000	11.11%	77,400
7	CHI	5.7900	0.5400	10.29%	129,998
8	CYBR	0.5800	0.0500	9.43%	51,380
9	WEB	12.0000	1.0000	9.09%	74,087,622
10	MWIDE	14.9800	1.1800	8.55%	9,966,814
11	JFC	167.0000	13.0000	8.44%	256,748,864
12	PGOLD	39.3000	3.0000	8.26%	87,051,735
13	DAVIN	1.1000	0.0800	7.84%	1,624,980
14	GMAP	8.4000	0.6000	7.69%	13,980,480
15	ABSP	35.0000	2.5000	7.69%	55,137,950
16	BDO	73.3000	5.1000	7.48%	522,727,851
17	MIC	5.7500	0.4000	7.48%	552,990
18	MA	0.0300	0.0020	7.14%	5,552,700
19	SINO	0.3000	0.0200	7.14%	36,000
20	FOOD	1.2000	0.0800	7.14%	1,947,280

I also averaged down on AC on my main port--this appears also to be a good move. And then some strong recoveries in BDO and MBT. I have a big position in MBT, and Im still wondering why foreign funds seem to be exiting from this stock seemingly in a hurry. Even the ex-date of a heft stock dividend was ignored by these sellers. Has MBT a huge exposure in forex, hedging in favor of PhP? Is the bank's porfolios not robust against the upcoming QE tapering. I remember MBT being one of the hardest hit among local banks in the 2008 subprime crisis. Its managers should have learned their lesson.

It must be noted though that yesterday still is a net foreign selling day at 1 B PhP. And also we must not forget that the day before yesterday, all remaining year-to-date gains in our market was erased in a matter of hours.  The market that we have today is as volatile (and as dangerous) as that. 

Anyway, I think we should still be green today with all the positive sentiment. Some people includes Napoles's surrender in their motivation.

I believe these will also help: window-dressing, positive GDP hurrahs, even the CFO's of many companies are cheering at this time.  Technical Analysts might also be going and in and betting on te chance that index will bounce high and strong again at the same level as it did last June. That we will return to 6500 in the next few days.

PSEi to bounce strong again from 5700? 

BUT I intend to sell this afternoon to increase my cash position back to at least 50%. The volatility, obviously, is the one that portends danger above all. On some stocks, you can even observe the tussle between bears and bulls, and on many days the foreigner bears are winning. Only GTCAP might remain the one unsold 'green' stock. Its inclusion in the index will officially start  Sept 16. I think the upside of this issue from now until that date is still fat. BUT I will sell if it reaches 830 or 850, or there is a terrible sell-down again.

And so, in closing, be cautious on your bets!

Technical Analysis does not always work--many were duped by false breakouts early August and whipsawed in their cut-losses early this week--
and belief in Strong Fundamentals is also invalidated--solid companies like AGI are being divested like the company will go out of business immediately--
...when merciless foreigners are selling down indiscriminately.