Lookout Monday (Hope it's not a Panic Monday)

I make my stock pick on a Monday to get a feel first of the week's atmosphere, but this is not foolproof and only semi-rationale. Any news that comes out within the week can trounce any trend.

For tomorrow though, it's important to note that our index breached below several short-term moving averages. Another close-to-2% negative will make a Panic Monday. TA believers (Chartists) will unload big automatically.

We should hope that the big red candle last Friday was just temporary over-reaction over SM's private offering. It was not an opportune time to do top-up offering last week (SM should have waited when we're on a clear uptrend again), but we dont know when they need the money for upcoming projects, so we have to let that be.

MEG, MPI, SCC, FLI, MBT, TEL, and MER will be the stocks on the first page of my Watchlist, with the objective entirely just for range trading. The downtrend last week firmed-up my strategy not to hold issues for long, and not to aim for gains in double digits. Minders:

1) Hold 4 weeks tops.
2) +8% gain is heaven already, +5% realistic. Set sell price, immediately after buying.
3) Think of cutting losses at -8% as a general rule, but
4) but consider averaging down on
a) fundamentally very sound companies
b) leaders in their industry
c) <10 P/E price
d) high-dividend paying companies (consider the dividend yield as margin of safety)
(at least 3 of the four must be met before averaging down).

6) Still treat with suspicion companies that appear to breakout of resistance. Until the uptrend for the general market is very clear, it can go down -3% the following day.

This should be the guideposts until Moody's releases their report.

Other notes for the beginning of the week:

• TEL and ALPHA are involved in this important news. Tsupiteros will scramble over ALPHA, but remember that insiders are already positioned days ago. Dont aim for too high a profit if you decide to join in.
• Some index issues are due to announce earnings for first half this coming week. It can inject some energy to these individual issues and our market. Buy at least a day before if you believe that the income report will be staggering or very rosy.
• Foreign buying and selling are swinging daily. On some individual issues, foreign funds even appear fighting with each other fiercely. Better to stick to analysing the per-week values instead? 
• If a big negative at higher volume strikes us in the morning, consider cutting losses together with the Technical Analysis (TA) believers. 

Let's go!