Recounting Week 39

If I was asked to place a bet last Sunday on whether the market will go up or down throughout last week, I would have bet that the market will go up even by 1%. What happened instead was we went back to a low 4-6 B PhP trading per day, and locals took profit. We're down 2% as a result.

There were also some negative rumours about AGI that made locals sell. That news about its shortchanging of upcoming backdoors and IPO's could be true, but Im ready to average down even if it goes down to 19.

The news about SMC, JGS, and MER also made impact. I made a separate post on this topic.

The main news that brought down equities seems to be the stand-off between US Congress and Obama on budget. Obama should show the lower house that he has some balls to shut down the government if needed. I think Speaker Boehner and his cohorts have smaller balls, and will give in the next two weeks, prompting a rally just before FED tapering news permeates again by end-October.

I profited +3% twice on JGS in the week, and sold half of green MEG just to hedge. I will add in MEG though if it goes down to 3.34 again. Im sticking to MEG as a good pick, with a time frame of two weeks. Im also still holding a significant MBT at 6+% gain
Im retaining cash position at 30%

I also made one tranche entry in SECB, which immediately turned green on the same day. I think its preferred shared rights is good for the stock price in the end. And SECB also tumbled dwon so low from its June high, it has so much room for an intermediate uptrend.

I was also watching VLL, because of its low P/E (good for value investors), new vigorous involvement of basura swimmer (good for 'N' in CANSLIM as explained by James), and solid sales growth. But it seem unable to get past the 5.5 hurdle. And more importantly the sell-side volume is always higher than ask. Im eager to get back to this issue at 5.05, but will probably start with one tranche on 5.15.

And then I also caught up on the last two episodes of Breaking Bad. Ive been a heavy user of IMDB since college (more than a decade ago), and this is the first time ever I've seen a 10/10 score in any film or tv episode. And it's fully deserving this perfect-ness. I cant help but blurt out an audible "wow" after I finished watching it myself, alone, in front of a desktop computer.

Others who are not following Breaking Bad might not be able to relate and be "hit" with the fullest impact of the episode. If you are not yet a Heisenberg follower, start now, even with just the 4th season. It's good to invest time in probably the best series ever in TV history (beating even Sopranos and The Wire).

JGS, SMC, and MER

Whichever way you look at it, this news does not bode well on the short-term price of MER

I would say that MER will be saddled inside 250 - 260 range in short-term. Why?

• Gokongwei will not buy at current market price without any discount. 10% off is a reasonable expectation for JGS or the deal is off. Now, who's more desperate, the buyer or the seller? 
• RSA seems desperate to divest, so SMC will have some money to pay off short-term debts. (Important to read this). I can picture SMC's Finance trying to find ways to make a better picture off its current balance sheet. 
• JGS's own interest probably lies only with Gokongwei's current thrust to keep holdings that pay-off consistent dividends. He will not hope to get control of MER today or on long-term. MVP's hold in Meralco is cemented at this point.He wont hope to get immediate synergy from adding MER inside JGS. 
• So, it's SMC who's more interested to sell at this point. 

I unloaded all my MER shares at an average 8% loss.

Unless a player will jack-up the price of MER back to 300 PhP level before applying say a 10% discount to JGS's buying, this whole deal is not good for MER. But who has the incentive to do jack-up price? 

In any case, any MER price down will only be temporary. The merits of MER as a company--which has solid revenue growth and even planning to establish power plants of its own--will prevail in the long run. 

CANSLIM Book ni Galgani, Kabanata 2

Sa kabanata 2 ng libro ni Galgani, ipinrisinta n'ya na agad ang buong konsepto ng CANSLIM. 

Mahusay na ang pagsusumang ito ng CANSLIM sa Investopedia.

Pero para maiba naman, lalo pang nagbigay ng mas kinapsulang pagsusuma ang libro. Mas pinaikli pa lalo ng awtor ang ideya ng CANSLIM tungo sa tatlong 'big rocks.' Naaalala kong ginagamit ang big rocks bilang idyoma ng isyu, matitinding suliranin, o malalaking kailangang gawin, na dapat gawing prayoriti. Sa parehong intensyon, ginamit ni Galgani ang termino parang bigyang diin--bago ang maliliit na pebbles, o kung anu mang taktika at stratehiya, kailangang unahing tirahin, kailangang nasa kukote parati, ang mga big rocks na ito:

#1 Bumili lamang ng stock kapag may confirmed uptrend na. Dumepensa kapag bumabagsak ang merkado. (ibig sabihin--lumabas at pumunta sa cash)

#2 Tutukan ang mga kumpanyang may malaking paglago ng kita at may bagong innovative na produkto or serbisyo.

#3 Bilhin ang mga stocks na binibili ng mga malalaking pondo (institutional investors). Iwasan ang mga binebenta nila nang malakihan.

At ang CANSLIM ay ginawa lang base sa dalawang ideya:

• Hanapin ang mga papatok o mga malapit ng pabulusok paakyat, sa pamamagitan ng paghahanap ng mga stocks na may mga katangiang katulad ng mga pumatok noon, eksakto bago sumipa ang presyo nila. 
• Ang malaman kung kailan na dapat magbenta. O maging mulat sa mga parehong senyales ng mga dating pumatok--noong naabot na nila ang tuktok at nagsimulang bumaba na. 

(si G. O'Neill) 

Sa mga sumusunod na pahina, pinakilala ni Galgani ang kanyang mentor na si O'Neill. Si O'Neill daw ay nasumpungang pag-aralan ang mga katangian ng patok na stocks, bago sila pumatok nang husto. Ang kanyang nadiskubre: ang pinakamagagaling na stocks ay mayroong pitong katangian bago siya sumipa nang matindi pataas. Ito na nga ang mas detalyeng CANSLIM:

C - para sa Current Earnings. Kailangang ang kita at sumisipa at tumutulin ang pagtaas sa mga katatapos na quarters (tigtatatlong buwan.

A - Annual Earnings. Para masiguradong hindi tsamba ang paglago ng kita sa nakaraang quarter, kailangan ding tignan ang kita sa pangbuong taon. Kailangang malakas ang pag-akyat ng kita nang nakaraang tatlong taon.

N - New company, product/service, industry trend, or management. Kailangang may bago sa kumpanya. Maigi kung bagong produkto mula sa inobasyon na magpapalaki ng benta. Pwede rin bagong management o kaya bagong kalakaran sa industriya na game-changer (bagong batas o kung anu man).

S - Supply and Demand. Ang magagandang stocks daw at magkakaroon ng above-average na pagtaas ng volume na ti-ne-trade, Ipinapakita nito ang interes ng mga propesyunal na investors o manedyer ng mga malalaking pondo

L - Leader or Laggard - Dapat lider ang kumpanya sa grupo nya. Kapag klarong nanguguna sya sa kumpetisyon, ang mga pondo ay pipila papunta sa stock na iyon.

I - Institutional sponsorship - ang mga institusyon at mga pondo ay dapat tinatangkilik ang stocks. Kailangan makita na dumadami ang bilang ng mga nag-mamay-aring pondo sa stock. Kumpirmasyon ito na susuportahan nila ang stock na pinpuntirya mo.

M - Market Direction - Sa kasaysayan daw 3 sa bawat 4 na stocks ay susunod sa direksyon ng kabuuan ng market, pababa man o pataas. Kaya't kailangang matutunong sumunod, hindi labanan, ang kasulukuyang daloy.

Ang C, A, at N ay ipinaloob ni Galgani sa ganyang malaking batong #2.

Ang S, L, I naman ay nasa malaking batong #3.

At ang M, na binibigyang diin parati, at nasa batong #1

Sa pagpraktis ng stratehiya ng CANSLIM, +24.7% bawat taon daw ang sipa ng portfolio noong 1998 - 2013, kumpara sa +2.6% lamang ng S&P (indeks ng Amerika).

Sinusugan ng iba pang suporta ni Galgani ang ilang aspeto ng CANSLIM. Halimbawa, kailangang tangkilikin ang pinagbibibili ng mga mutual funds, at iwasan ang dinidispatsa nila nang pangmalakihang bolyum. Masasaktan ka lang kapag nilabanan mo sila.

Sinundan ng libro ng halimbawang Apple vs. Dell ang ilustrasyon kung paano kabisa ang CANSLIM. Anya noong pagkapasok ng 21st century, ang Apple ay sumisipa ang kita, may bagong magagaling na mga manedyer. may bagong produktong iPhone at iPad, samantalang ang Dell ay palugmok sa lumang PC, pisat or istedi lang na kita, atbp. Pinakita ang graph ng galaw ng presyo ng Apple at Dell. Bumulusok ang Apple pataas, dumausdos pababa ang Dell.

Ang isa sa mga litaw na naiiba sa CANSLIM ay ang pag-waksi sa mababang P/E ratio bilang atraksyon ngpagbili. Anya ng mga CANSLIM practitioners, ang mababang P/E ay pupwedeng senyales ng kahinaan, hindi ng pagkapatok ng stocks. Ang pinakamalalakas na stocks ay malamang may mataas na P/E, dahil mataas ang demand sa kanila. Ang mga pobre naman at ibinebenta pababa, kaya bababa ang P/E nito

Taliwas ito sa opinyon ng mga value investors.

Ang aking hinuha naman tungkol sa CANSLIM ay sa mga susunod na kabanata na lang. Pansamantala, sisikapin kong tapusin ang pagsusuma ng ikatlong kabanata ngayong linggo.

Gudlak sa mga trade ninyo!

Pick of the week for Week 39: MEG

Im banking on the sufficient probability that we are on an uptrend however small (could be just +5% of current PSEi level today or 6800) and however short (could be just until last part of October when anxiety of tapering will prop up its ugly head again).

If we are on an uptrend MEG must catch-up with ALI and other properties that are currently showing strength. Indeed, MEG has already jumped 18% from its 2.9ish low last August, but it's current P/E is just 11--still very cheap compared to its peers SMPH and ALI. MEG should have more juice left--Im projecting 3.75ish in the next 2 weeks, but I'll be selling starting at 3.65. 

Im also watching JGS, which was also a previous stalwart, but was clobbered by Forex losses in a recent earnings report. Now that PhP is gaining against the greenback (or greenback is weakening against all currencies in general), the real performance of JGS should come to the fore. 

It is also reasonable to expect JGS returning to at least 42 PhP, which is its level when our index was 6800. Today's price to 42 is 10%+ difference, so this issue might be good for a 'short term,' high single-digit percentage profit. But still, dont go all in, invest in tranches and average down even up to 45 if it goes down that low.

There are also "Dark Horse" picks like

ANS--should be announcing hefty dividends in the the next 4 weeks.
FDC--hasnt recovered yet, but its subsidiaries are already gaining ground.
LC--for its short-term behavior, a bet in LC is a bet in Gold increasing.
Gold, as most other highly-traded commodities, is expected to increase given the interim "taper-off"(taper removal). LC almost always follow the trend of gold, at times as immediate as the following day. If Gold jumps 3 consecutive days, for instance, LC must jump accordingly.

But FDC and ANS are illiquid. And LC is notorious for its volatility and general 'danger' (this company is almost direction-less until the future of mining in the Philippines is straightened out). Bet on any of these three if only you are that kind of person that loves 'playing,' and you would have time to monitor the price movement daily and closely. Do not hold, especially LC, for too long. 

Nakakagumilihanan na Biyernes

Nakakagulumihanan ang ginawa ng mga banyagang biglaang pagbebenta sa pagsasara noong Biyernes. Mula sa matatag na positibo, biglang naging -1.3%. Nakakawindang din ang 28.8 B volume. May malaking cross sa TSI na nakaontribyut ng malaki dito, pero malaki na rin ang 12 B ang total na bolyum kung wala ang cross.

Ano kaya ang mangyayari ngayon? Di ko alam. Ang taya ko positive. At may taya pa rin akong nakaiwan sa MEG, MBT, AEV, JGS.

Formulate your action plan for longer, say the next 4 weeks

My suggestion is to change trading time frame and go 4-6 weeks. Suspend for the mean time the day-trade or 3-day time period. Choose your favorite companies, perhaps those that steadily gave you profits last May-June. Remember, their earnings remained steady as they are--except the banks that lost big in trading (after foreign money pulled-out en masse) and the companies that borrowed heavily in dollars early this year.

There's a theory that the stocks that were not as affected and not too up-and-down shaky during the down turn will also become the first ones jumping in the upturn. PGOLD, JFC, AGI, are three of these stocks. I placed my bet on AGI. If you want to align with this theory, do a quick look at the graphs of all the PSEi stocks and some second liners. Find the one which did not dip too low and did not oscillate too wide.

MEG, although dumped by foreigners in July-August,was heavily bought up again yesterday. It can become the reliable stalwart again. In fact if this becomes a steady hand , the whole index would also be comfortably steady in its upturn. MEG is now moved on the first page of my watchlist, a candidate for adding-up.

AC and MER were also steadily-increasing index stocks before the QE tapering news. They also deserve some focus.

The banks are being bought up by foreign funds again. Search a bank of your own if you still have funds to allocate. Also dont forget dividend paying and those with low P/E, remember those metrics are also being looked at by fund managers.

Half of my holdings in MBT was hit at previously-set 88.5, all remaining GTCAP was also hit at 840 (previously set), as well as tranches in VLL, even before I got the chance to open FMS or BPITrade. Im suddenly 50% cash when I started checking the market. I bought one tranche in JGS and AEV to release some cash. Only AEV was the bad pick, but Im betting this will recover today.

By the way, thank you GTCAP for being a good pick of the week. Although youre not a favorite by locals, you gave me profit 3 times around.

I don't agree with the early profit taking done by our fellow locals late in the morning and late closing. (My own mistake was in not taking time opening PC at home to cancel all sell orders before the market opened). The FED tapering was the most important concern, since we were relieved by that then our market will probably be allowed its "natural" trend, which should be up given the rosy corporate earnings and braggable GDP growth. Im not privy though on the emotions of our fellow pinoys that sold big yesterday (see COL selling figures). They might be shell-shocked new investors  that want to just want exit out unscathed or recover some of the losses.

And yes, the "relief" is only good until November 1.The FOMC will meet again Oct 29-30. By the time we go back on trading again on November 4, there could be a firm announcement on the amount of tapering that will happen within the year.

But at least Ben Bernanke now  laid out more certainty. He said that tapering will not start if US unemployment wont go down below 6.5%. So that's also a number to watch out in the news for.

Now, how would we know when to sell?
1) check the trend. If still going up or above the SMA lines, let your profits run, and MACD histogram trending up or stable.
2) but i'll be comfortable selling at 12% gain. (My current MEG and MBT are already showing 8%)
3) sell when you see the  US unemployment improve to way below 6.5%
4) sell before All Saints day break.
(strong sell if there's combination of the 4 conditions)

And dont forget to read news daily. For instance, you would not know there's another bacman bad news in EDC if you dont read the news for a few minutes.  

Berdeng Biyernes na Naman

Surpresa talaga ang desisyon ni Mang Ben. Salamat, Mang Ben. Hayaan mo sanang bilhin na muna muli pataas ng mga naglalakihang pondo ang merkado namin, bago tirahin uli ang buong mundo ng QE taper. Palayain mo muna ang mga nakulong sa taas ng SM, SECB, at iba pa.

Mukhang berde ulit tayo ngayon, mga katoto, pero mag-ingat nang kaunti. Di pa rin unanimous, ika nga, ang pagbili ng mga banyaga. Nandyan pa rin si CLSA na matigas ang ulo sa pagbebenta at paninira ng sipa pataas. Bigla syang nagbubuhos pababa na lalong ikinakakaba ng na-shellshock na na locals (na sumusunod tuloy). Kaya't mag-ingat na lamang nang kaunti, pumili nang kaunti, at wag na ikalat ang pera.

Tandaan din na may miting ulit ang Fed sa susunod na buwan. Posibleng ilang linggo ng kasiguruhan lang ito. Isang magandang ideya rin ang pumili ng isang istak na oks lang na maipit ka kung umabot sa ganoon.

Nakabenta ako ng VLL at GTCAP, at bumalik sa Dos kahapon. Nakabili din ng MEG, sana makabenta sa 3.6 sa buwan ding ito.

Inoobserbahan ko rin ang mga bangko na mangggaling sa malalim--SECB, BDO--na mukhang pinapataas na muli. Baka bumili rin ng  BPI kapag kumbinsing na sumipa lampas ng 105. Dapat lang pataasin na ang mga ito, anlalaki ng kita ng mga yaan.

Thank You, Ben

We know that we're the least on your mind when you decided to continue untouched your QE innovation, but Thank you! nevertheless.

You seem so tired from all the stress, and ready to go back to the academe any time. Thank you for still staying on and doing what you believe is right, doing what you said was right decades ago, when all of them were just your papers and theories on Depression Economics. Just take a vacation for 3 months after leaving on January. Call us if you need recommendations on where to go in the Philippines. It's more fun here. Where can you see boat men, after touring visitors in our coasts during the day, participate in beauty pageants at night?

You the man, Ben!  Props for fooling Wall Street and 'revered' economists, who was wildly guessing 5 - 20 B (as high as 23%!) reduction in tapering that was supposed to start immediately (according to them). That taught them that the boss cannot be influenced by anticipatory news and press releases.

I wish you are my teacher/mentor.

Market Skim Through: September 19's Big Green

Our market gapped up a bewildering +~4% at opening, and settled on a still acceptable +2.81%. There are mysterious big sell-downs in AP and AEV at closing. These two Aboitizes are the only stocks that closed in the red. They should recover tomorrow.

Volume traded was big at 16 B worth. Foreign investors were net buyers at Php 2.53 billion. Only CLSA was remarkable for still coming out a net seller at 600 M +. This broker unloaded unloaded SECB, RCB, MER, EDC, in big chunks. JPMorgan continued to pull-out 100 M + (its daily average of net selling the past few days). Deutsche on the other hand turned out a big net buyer today, a huge turnaround from selling the past week. It must have been prompted by the Fed big time to return to emerging markets. Among its main interests is MEG, which increase a huge +7% as a result.

COLFinancial is a net sellers at 500 M. Many locals obviously took profit early.

And so we are now again at 6500, and the 200-SMA was breached convincingly (blue line below). Index also kissed 100-SMA (red line) at one point. Are we now bullish again on intermediate and long-term? We hope so.

Other observations:

CPG increased big again. The loyalists of this Antonio stock should now be on a profit, even before stockdivs are announced.

BPI closed at 100 but it was indecisive throug throughout the day. All the other banks are also being bought up.

Some still played the bazur TSI, although blue chips are attractive and active throughout the day.

AGI closed at doji (price unchanged) after swinging to positive in the morning and staying in negative for most of the afternoon. Is this because of the uncertainty with Emperador's valuation? If Andrew Tan priced it too high, the follow-on offering can become an embarrassing dud. TSI/EDI supposed to announce the final price yesterday but there's no disclosure.

	Stock Code	Last	Change	%Change	Value
1	VVT	12.0000	3.0000	33.33%	47,850
2	PMPC	6.5000	1.5000	30.00%	7,307,239
3	UPM	0.0120	0.0010	9.09%	2,400
4	NXT	2.1500	0.1600	8.04%	2,150
5	LMG	3.0400	0.2200	7.80%	6,510,630
6	GREEN	0.0140	0.0010	7.69%	4,278,500
7	MEG	3.4700	0.2300	7.10%	687,088,390
8	IMI	3.4000	0.2200	6.92%	1,555,180
9	SOC	1.1000	0.0700	6.80%	1,100
10	BDO	80.0000	5.0000	6.67%	1,075,091,970
11	SPC	4.8000	0.3000	6.67%	19,200
12	CPG	1.6200	0.1000	6.58%	60,043,200
13	SECB	134.6000	8.3000	6.57%	525,217,212
14	LIB	2.2200	0.1300	6.22%	22,420
15	APO	1.9700	0.1100	5.91%	205,410
16	CDC	1.0800	0.0600	5.88%	1,080
17	ALHI	23.5000	1.3000	5.86%	7,050
18	GSMI	21.8500	1.2000	5.81%	53,882,705
19	AT	12.4800	0.6800	5.76%	7,107,012
20	SUN	1.4800	0.0800	5.71%	8,337,440

Baby, what a big surprise

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-18/fed-leaves-hedge-fund-bears-waiting-in-bet-on-emerging-markets.html

Let your profits run. Do not sell stocks in a strong uptrend.

This green will spill-over to next week until we reach 6800-6900 again, okay? Consider selling at that marker.

Market Skim Through: 17 September

The PSEi gained 0.66% yesterday to close at 6,344.14. Volume was Php10.07 billion. Foreign investors were net buyers at Php 1.34 billion. Steady foreign buying that is unexpected given the upcoming FEM meeting. The natural move was for them to be on the sidelines, but they might be moving already based on what they believe as the amount of tapering. I will still keep my minimum 30% cash position though.

TSI is the center of another sad case of people at Financemanila taking advantage of co-forumers. After a ceiling move, a press release was sent out detailing a rights price way lower than ceiling. This price was predicted by other bloggers, but FMS mainstays continued to hype TSI, one even saying that Emperador/TSI is a future blue chip. There are moneygrabbers in forums, that's a fact. This is now our own version of boiler rooms.  

Other observations: 

BPI is silently recovering (this was out of my radar the past few weeks). Will this go back to 100 PhP soon?

MBT was red, but not terribly red. It was being pushed up every time there's a threat to go below 85. This will be green tomorrow.

BDO now seems the laggard among the top 3 banks. This is still trading [relatively] sideways, will it surge up soon? 

ICT is another of the few stocks that already went back or exceeded its level during the heavenly days at 7300-7400. Investors probably believe the promise of ICT's expansion, operating ports in different parts of the globe. 

In everyone's mind of course is the QE tapering that should be announced early tomorrow. My bet is that any reduction in bond buying greater than 20 B is dangerous to us--another huge sell-off will happen. While any number below 10 B is expected/good; this uptrend/recovery should continue. Between 10B - 20B is a puzzle; we dont know if all the foreign funds will have a unanimous move at this range.  

Choose to be conservative with a cash position (maybe just for this week)

PSEi broke through convincingly its short-term moving average. MACD is also now [also convincingly] above signal line. To chartists, both are signals to buy.

Technical Analysts believe that the chart should already contain all the story and emotions (or everything 'priced-in'), including the plans and anxiety of the participants of the market. This could mean that the price improvement show there are needless worries for the upcoming FED meeting. And that stocks that jumped high today will jump higher in the coming days. The next resistance levels are 6400 and 6500. At that level, we might see SM at 850 and MBT at 90+. So, given this, what should be our 2-week plan?

I would love to say that it's safe to go long now. Meaning, stop the quick cutloss and stop selling at 3-5% according to our rules in this type of market; hold for longer time periods instead, and probably shoot for 20%.

But I'll be choosing a semi-conservative route. Half of my gtcap was sold earlier on an automatic sell-point set last week (at +6%), this helps me prepare more cash for Thursday. I will also sell some green MBT this morning again to ready higher cash position. And then I will also observe the moves of foreigners more. Even if the stocks that rose already (ike GTCAP, SM, and MBT) surge up to 52-week highs from here on, I think there are plenty of opportunities with other stocks. FLI, FDC, SCC's also have good earnings, but have not yet surged up at this time.

So, Cash is still a useful defensive position at this time. Even if this is now a start of a true uptrend, and we miss some of the equities that already jumped higher, there are still other nice ones (still cheap) to ride in. I recently saw in one presentation that PSE is 60% a listing of fundamentally solid companies. Even if the first 30% already is on an eventual uptrend, we'll still have the other 30%, which we can easily find (our PSE isn't that big yet).

Market Skim Through: Surprise Surge Up

PSEi increased big by +2.76%, to close above 6,300, at a significant 10 B turnover. Foreigners were net buyers at Php1 B. The % increase is indeed high, but not all index stocks were green.

	Stock Code	Last	Change	%Change	Value
1	RPL	13.1000	-3.8000	-22.49%	11,600
2	SMC	65.5000	-7.0000	-9.66%	21,079,783
3	I	2.6200	-0.2400	-8.39%	15,720
4	PHES	0.4300	-0.0300	-6.52%	107,500
5	VMC	1.6000	-0.1000	-5.88%	14,338,980
6	CHIPS	14.0000	-0.8000	-5.41%	51,550
7	ZHI	0.3700	-0.0200	-5.13%	235,350
8	LC	0.4400	-0.0200	-4.35%	28,200,350
9	STR	3.6300	-0.1600	-4.22%	145,350
10	MA	0.0270	-0.0010	-3.57%	13,591,900
11	HLCM	13.0000	-0.4600	-3.42%	65,000
12	BEL	4.7800	-0.1600	-3.24%	96,947,010
13	BKD	1.0700	-0.0300	-2.73%	219,350
14	STI	0.7600	-0.0200	-2.56%	14,125,410
15	MER	268.0000	-7.0000	-2.55%	511,089,210
16	T	2.2400	-0.0500	-2.18%	12,740
17	ARA	1.5000	-0.0300	-1.96%	217,160
18	COL	17.5000	-0.3000	-1.69%	2,765,048
19	SEVN	105.1000	-1.8000	-1.68%	1,398,312
20	SLI	0.6100	-0.0100	-1.61%	323,730

SMC is now officially behaving like a bazur, or a poor-performing second liner like ROCK. It is the 2nd worst performer at - 9.66. I wonder what Ramon Ang will say again about taking SMC private (it is rationale). Will he brandish again the chunk of Meralco he can still sell, just so he can show liquidity?

Foreigners CLSA and Deutsche sold big at closing, and power companies are seemingly hit. MER and AP, for example were positive throughout the day but suddenly closed in the red at closing.  Are these brokers worried about another move by the government ordering another slash in utility tariffs (for electricity this time after water)?

The bulk of the increase in the index was courtesy of SM, MBT, MPI, and SMPH, which all rose big.

	Stock Code	Last	Change	%Change	Value
1	SUN	1.5700	0.1900	13.77%	15,305,640
2	ATN	1.1800	0.1300	12.38%	141,560
3	CDC	1.1200	0.1100	10.89%	5,600
4	EVER	0.2650	0.0260	10.88%	17,600
5	IPO	12.5000	1.1800	10.42%	398,946
6	CPG	1.5500	0.1400	9.93%	45,751,090
7	SM	805.0000	61.5000	8.27%	980,861,995
8	AGF	2.8100	0.2100	8.08%	2,751,110
9	ALHI	23.4000	1.6000	7.34%	64,655
10	APO	1.9800	0.1300	7.03%	1,980
11	NXT	2.1500	0.1400	6.97%	38,670
12	CEB	55.5000	3.0000	5.71%	18,150,905
13	OPM	0.0190	0.0010	5.56%	39,800
14	KPH	4.7500	0.2500	5.56%	28,300
15	MPI	4.6300	0.2300	5.23%	298,078,170
16	MBT	86.0000	4.2500	5.20%	506,718,473
17	SMPH	16.9800	0.8000	4.94%	234,222,736
18	PAL	5.7700	0.2700	4.91%	469,106
19	IMI	2.6000	0.1200	4.84%	391,410
20	GEO	0.4350	0.0200	4.82%	8,800

The 1B foreign buying is small for comfort given that we reached 10 B in total volume (their buy figures are usually higher at this total volume). The culprits are again Deutsche and CLSA, which combined for over 2.5 B of selling. Good thing other foreigners and local neutralised Deutsche selling in SM, for example. And again, a big chunk of the sell-down, of both brokers happened at closing (which, incidentally I think is better than gapping down at opening, because panicky locals frequently follow gap downs with some immediate sell-downs of their own, making a painful chain effect).

All these were surprises. Majority were expecting sideways, low-volume trading, and sell-off by many funds to prepare for the FED meeting. We can only wonder what these funds are planning for near-term (how do they intend to position throughout September) and intermediate (until Dec 30). We must be aware of their moves until Wednesday, and change action plans if needed.