Pick of the week for Wk19 is cash (but enter already a small amount on some issues, when they hit good buy prices)

I was not able to open account the whole day, and was surprised to see 1+% in negative, I think it's not worth it to bet big this week, unless there's going to be a big push upwards by tomorrow or Wednesday. In fact, I was hoping for an Obama-induced positive, but it did not happen. So the general recommendation this week is to stay in cash. My nimble port is at 60% cash position, my main port at 30%. I have taken in profit that can serve as war chest if there is a need to cut loss, but I'll be on averaging down mode on most issues that I still hold (like TA) even if we tumble down back to 5900.

Also another point of view to consider...
although we are going negative, the volume is small. There is hope that our issues is just forming handles and being relieved of overall overbought conditions.

THUS

It is worthwhile already to enter in minimum tranches some issues when they hit a good buy price. On top of AGI, MEG, DNL, PGOLD, and issues that I mentioned recently that I want to go back to (with target prices indicated in a previous post), Im entering one tranche in SMPH at 15.5 (this might be hit tomorrow), and would average down to 15, 14,...

AP is also worthwhile to look at.

Moves at 6800 index

I was selling shares at 6800 as planned and wanting to transfer the gains immediately to issues that are fundamentally sound but are still far off (for some reason) from their 52-week high. Having too much cash while there is still upward momentum is obviously not optimum.

I would like the issues that I freshly get into to not to have a negative news or pending decisions attached to it. MWC and PNX are examples of issues very much below their peaks but have attendant problematic [regulatory] news attached to them, so these are stricken off.

FLI, SECB, SMPH, BPI, are the others Im looking at. They still have room before hitting resistance against 52-week highs again, but of course these are not guarantees. The assumption is if we're on a general uptrend already, these should wake up some and we can benefit riding them as they stand up the bed of slumber, even for short-term.

For SMPH, I would like it to correct to 16 to relieve overbought conditions before going up again. It is also not a long-term issue for me, because of its high P/E. If I do get in, the intention is just to ride for short-term.

SECB--it would also be useful to watch for increase in foreign buying again (like last year) before getting in or adding to existing positions. It would be ideal to see a combination fo 3 among MACQ, CLSA, CSUISSE, JPMORGAN to buy in bulk again. I'd also like to see WEALTH buying as well.

Im holding the rest of the position in blues to ride them until we near 7 K or index weakens and breaks 50-moving average line. Breaking below 50 is always a possibility is we near that dreaded month of May again.

Congrats to those who already profited. You should have already recovered from last year, and gained substantially these past five months, if you stuck buy our attractive fundamentally-sound picks.

Market Skim Through: August 06, Are they really bargains?

PSE index tumbled down -1.37%, but many are still thankful because it was nearing -2.0% earlier in the day. PSEi is going deeper below its short-term moving averages, so chartists indeed exited in the morning. But many funds clicked buy in the afternoon, which also brought the volume to a decent 5.95 volume. Foreigners were net sellers mostly because they continue to unload Sy stocks, but these funds also bought some index issues like MEG, which recovered to positive.

#	Stock Code	Last	Change	%Change	Value
1	PORT	9.6000	-3.8600	-28.68%	960
2	SPC	4.8000	-0.5000	-9.43%	48,000
3	CSB	11.5400	-0.9600	-7.68%	463,056
4	SEVN	130.0000	-9.0000	-6.47%	358,110
5	PRIM	1.6100	-0.1100	-6.40%	54,950
6	CDC	1.0500	-0.0700	-6.25%	32,710
7	FFI	14.8200	-0.9200	-5.84%	8,836
8	EG	0.0170	-0.0010	-5.56%	23,900
9	ARA	1.3200	-0.0700	-5.04%	342,800
10	LIB	2.0000	-0.1000	-4.76%	734,000
11	OPMB	0.0200	-0.0010	-4.76%	2,100
12	T	2.1000	-0.1000	-4.55%	21,000
13	MAKE	27.5500	-1.2500	-4.34%	5,510
14	AP	32.0500	-1.4000	-4.19%	51,093,170
15	MWC	31.1500	-1.3000	-4.01%	71,176,810
16	SOC	1.0300	-0.0400	-3.74%	431,990
17	HI	7.2400	-0.2600	-3.47%	5,749,837
18	RCB	50.2500	-1.8000	-3.46%	14,116,674
19	EEI	12.0000	-0.4200	-3.38%	13,051,840
20	FGENG	111.6000	-3.7000	-3.21%	11,160

AP and MWC are in the list of worst performers, because of separate news items. AP, because supposed to be power will be the first to get hit by impending rising interest rates. The company's latest earnings report is also not too good compared to last year because of forex losses. MWC, on the other hand, is still threatened by a possible new policy of disallowing them to pass on VAT to consumers. (Changing the rules in the middle of the game = always bad for business).

Albeit the perceived low prices... Cash is still my pick of the week. However it is still useful to ruminate on these:

Sy Stocks are battered. What among BDO, BEL, SMPH, SM, SMDC are now bargains? BEL has potential I think as we near December. Gaming stocks should jump very high as it nears the opening of a new casino. BDO is a bargain at 10 p/e. The rest must find their bottom.

MPI, although it entered my previously declared price entry range,  I wasnt able to get in at 4.93 this morning (conflict with a meeting). Might have another chance within the week?

I added a tranche of MBT at 103.5; thankfully it rose to 105 + in the afternoon. This stock might be a good opportunity to profitably range trade again. Im keeping my substantial position. I also reentered BDO after cutting a small loss yesterday. The bank also recovered decently today, already showing me a bit of profit. But all these are gambles, mind ya.

There's a fighting chance that our market will be green tomorrow. JFC piled on good, confident numbers (and a relatively high divs announcement at that!) to encourage our PSE to show some life. Could be the needed antidote to what SM prompted.

Depending on you appetite for risk, you may get in or not. If you decide to get in, I cant over-emphasize the better-for-risk move of buying in tranches. Do not go all-in. Buy staggered.

If you decide to be on the sidelines, youre aligned with an experienced group of Ghost Month believers. (the month officially starts tomorrow and ends September 4). But would not hurt to be on the lookout for strong companies that are perhaps being sold-off by locals but becoming interesting for foreign brokers.

Good luck!

Ba't nagkagan'on ang Esem?

Parang may kasamang panggigigil ang pagbebenta ng mga banyaga at mga lokal:

8% ang isinadsad! Parang LC-Lepanto lang ang galaw!

Napakalaki pa ng volume. Kumbaga sa kontrabida (bear), napakalaking pagbabanta ang ibinato nya sa bida (bull). Baka mabugbog talaga ng husto tayong mga maliliit na investor sa mga darating na araw.

Sumanga at lumampas pa sa 20-day SMA. Sa mga chartists, maliwanag na signal ito para lumabas na at kitilin ang pagkatalo.

Idagdag mo pa na positibo ang mga index ng mga kapitbahay, samantalang tayo halos dos porsyento ang bagsak!

Ano ngayon ang dapat gawin? Bago yan, mga kailangang pagnilay-nilayan:

1) Itong SM ba ang nagmitmitsa ng bagong pagdausdos ng ating merkado? Ilang beses na ipinahiwatig ng mga Sy noon na hinding-hindi sila makikialam sa presyo ng kanilang stocks. Tama pa rin ba ang prinsipyong ito samantalang ang kanilang tyempo ng pagbenta ng ilang milyong halaga ng dagdag ng shares sa malaking diskwento ang nagsimula ng lahat?

(si Bigboy)

2) Bargain na nga kaya ang SM sa presyong ito ngayon?

3) Kumusta ang growth ng SM sa paningin ng mga malalaking mamumuhunan? Ano ba ang tsismis na nasasagap nila? Ibinabandera pa ng esem ang kinabukasan ng Belle at pagpapapalawak ng bisnes sa bansang Tsina. Hindi ba dapat ito ang pinakaunang konsiderasyon dapat sa pagbili ng stock ng Esem?

4) Baka naman nakaplano lang talagang idispatsa ng maraming nakatanggap ng stock divs ngayon ang 'sobra' nilang shares. Baka oks na uli ito sa Lunes.

5) Sa CANSLIM method, upang maging kaaya-aya ang isang stock, isa sa mga kailangan ay may "bago" dapat ang kumpanya. Kumikislap na bago ang pag-iisa ng SMDC, Highlands, at SMPH. Pag natapos ang transaksyong ito, walang dudang pinakamalaking maglulupa, mag-bibilding, at mag-mo-mall sa buong Pilipinas ang SMPH na matitira. At naniniwala rin ako na may matinding sinerhiya sa pag-iisang ito. Biruin mong pwedeng-pwede na magdesisyon ang isang management team lang na ang isang condom, halimbawa, at magkaroon ng  maikli, maaliwalas, at diretsong tawiran papunta sa isang mall. Manenegotiate din ng maigi ang mga kontrata kung iisa lang ang kausap nang mangcocondom at mang-mo-mall. Hindi ba naikonsidera ito ng mga gigil na nagbenta kanina?

6) Umabot na ba sa mga mamumuhunan ang kontraktwalisasyon, pamumutol ng puno, mababang pasahod sa mga salesladies (na hindi man lamang ilibre ng BONUS makeup dahil inoobliga naman nila ang mga dalagang ito na mag-makeup nang husto) at natakot ang mga investor baka umabot sa knila ang karma?

Ang posibleng galaw nekswik...

Pumasok o magdagdag kung naniniwala kayo sa planong paglaki ng Esem. Ako'y mag-oobserba siguro hanggang Miyerkules. Pero kung umabot ng 800 ang presyo, kailangan ng tumaya-taya na nang konti. Subalit kung dumadausdos ang buong indeks, tabi pera na muna siguro. (Ibinenta ko nga pala ang aking Esem isang araw bago ang ex-date stockdivs nila. Nagkaroon ng konsiderableng kita rin).

Pansamantala, alalahanin muna natin ang Yano...

Patingin-tingin, di naman makabile

patingin-tingin, di makapananood ng sine

Walang ibang pera 

kundi pamasahe

nakayanan ko lang pambili ng dalawang yosi

Tung-tung-tung-tung-tururung-tung-nu-nung

--Yano. 

(naalala ko ang sabi ni Dong Abay at Eric Gancio na isa sa mga ibig sabihin ng YANO ay pinagsamang oo at hindi. Anggaling. Pasensya na Eric at Dong, sellout na kami, kapitalista na, alipin na rin ng korporasyon, may mga anak na rin na pagkamahal ang pampers at gatas. bili na lang kami ng colt 45 mamya para alalahanin ang mga mob natin noon na may konsert. Pasundot-sundot na lang sa progreso at pag-unawa sa mga maralitang kasama sa loob ng korporasyon. Padayon.)