Picks of the week for WK12 is to HOLD the AGI and MWC that you've bought, and then TEL. at 2602

AGI could have fuel until 29 to 31. I'll probably sell all at 29 and some cents

MWC seems changing and consolidating hands in preparation for a move upwards. Although not that convincing.

If I have to choose between the two, only AGI's move up is probable. Foreign buying in AGI was solid and with conviction the past few days.

GMA7-- might need to cut loss at 6.5.

I also placed a buy in TEL at 2602. This is one of the stocks Im eager to go back to again and again and again. And it's lucky for our trading style that it moves in a channel rather than leaves you after you sell. Whatever happens, I'll start accumulating again from that price point (may be even at 2700). Remember--TEL gives divs, big enough to give you gain even if its price rests lower for longer vs. your entry point.

WARNING: SPECULATIVE. Picks of the week for Wk11 is slight buys on issues with apparent foreign buying

There's a "Warning: Speculative" in the title, but aren't all stock purchases speculative? Well, this only means that I see risks here more than our normal picks of the week.

Anyway, I suggest you make a criteria to sift through # of foreign brokers buying the stock that youre eyeing, before you get in. For my own, if I see three foreign brokers like UB, JPMORGAN, and DEUTSCHE appearing together in the net buy side, inside the top 6 buyers, thats significant.

I havent peeked through that many stocks yet. but in the group that I saw, I liked the foreign buying that I see in AGI so I added (buy up) one tranche more. AGI is our pick this week, together with two speculative picks.

Not, in these two other 'extra' picks, you should enter at your risk... but arent all buy at own risk, you say?

In any case, be ready to cut loss when you suddenly see yourself holding -8% in a few days. On the other hand, when you see a profit. sell also as quickly... the extra picks are

...GMA7 and MWC! Buy a few tranches each then follow closely.

James K Nava will blog on GMA7 in Filipino, I'll do a separate post on MWC.

Pumapapalag ang Tubig

Ayon sa aking pansamantalang pamantayan na obserbahan at hulihin ang mga stock na may tatlong nagtutulung-tulongang banyaga--ang magtutubig na MWC ang aking nakita noong Lunes hanggang Miyerkules. Nagtutulung-tulong ang CSUISSE, PEP, MACQ, DEUTSCHE, atbp sa pagbili ng isang ito.

(Malikot pa rin, pero mukhang may nagsisimulang mag-ipon na na mga banyaga (tignan din ang paglaki ng bolyum).  

May natunugan na kaya ang mga foreigner na balita tungkol sa arbitration sa Singapore? Hindi ba inaabot nang taun-taon ang pagdinig sa mga korteng ito? Katakut-takot na sandwich, bayad, at pa-lunch sa mga abogado ang wawaldasin pa ng MWC at ng ating gobyerno (para ipaglaban ang posisyon ng MWSS) bago magkaron nang kaliwanagan ang kaso ng tamang singil sa tubig.

Magaling naman talaga ang MWC. Dito pa nga nilagay ang magaling na CEO ng mga Ayala na si Ablaza mula sa Globe papunta sa tubigan. Marahil, ginawa ito nila JAZA para palawigin at palakihin ang mas delikado at sensitibong bisnes na ito (mas sensitibo nga naman kaysa sa telekomunikasyon ang ipinapaligong at iniinom na tubig). Alam ko rin na kailangan ng malilikhaing mga hakbang para kumita sa mga baranggay na walang metro, o yaong mga lugar na punung-puno ng ilegal na koneksyon. Malamang nakita ninyo na rin ito... iyong nagsasalimbayang plastic na tubo, goma, hose, at tumatalsik na tubig sa daan.

Sa lugar namin sa Caloocan, ginastusan talaga ang paghuhukay ng daan para maayos ang mga primerong linya at mga kuneksyon sa mga bahay. Pinutol na rin sa proseso ang mga iligal. Ang kaagad-agad na benepisyo sa mga nagbabayad... kakaibang lakas ng presyur sa tubig na di namin naramdaman ng deka-dekada. Kaya't sa ganang akin, maganda naman ang naging pribatisasyon ng tubohan at tubigan natin.

Wag po

Kaya't medyo OA sa akin ang nagtatawag agad na ibalik sa MWSS ang admin ng tubig. Hindi ninyo ba naiimadyin ang pila sa munisipyo? Napapansin ninyo ba na habang maraming naghihintay, maraming tatanga-tangang nakatunganga o nagbabasa ng diyaryo duon at naghihintay ng alas singko para makauwi na?  Bagama't tama nga lamang na tignan ang rekwes na itaas ang singil ng ganun-ganon na lamang.

Mukha kasing guilty ang mga nasa board ng MWSS dahil na-expose ang naglalakihang 'consultation fees' at sweldo nila kaya't gusto agad makabawi, kaya't reduction ang inanawns, kaya ayun sumadsad kasunod ang presyo ng MWC.

(MWSS Chairman na biglang kambyo at anawns ng bawas-singil)

(Naglaho ang singkwenta porsento ng halaga ng MWC lasyir dahil sa pagpapasiklab ni Alikpala. Biruin mo, parang naging BHI lang ang galaw)

Heniwey, hindi man lumabas ang paborableng desiyon tungkol sa kaso, naniniwala ako na makakahanap ng oportunidad sa ibang lugas sa pinas o sa ibang lupalop sila Ablaza para palaguin pa ang kumpanya. Maglalagay na ako ako nang kaunti sa MWC para may paglagyan naman ang posisyong-salapi.

Ang sabi pa nga ng itay ko, 250 to 320 lang ang bill sa tubig ng anim na katao. Ikumpara ito sa kuryente namin? Tumataginting na limanlibo.

Meralco at power plant ng mga Lopez na lang ang tiradurin ninyo, mga katotong tibak.

(Ang mga Lopez ay mahusay lang makapag-isip kung pano makapanlamang at mautakan ang polisiya ng gobyerno. Hanggang ngayon tumitira pa rin sila nang pailalim kung paano makakatabo sa EPIRA at WESM) 

Hindi ko nga pala binanggit dito ang pagkakabili ng mga Lopez sa Maynilad at pagkaka-mismanage nito. Laking gudnews nga ng kinuha na lang ni MVP at DMC ang pagmando. Sa ibang post na lang ito.

Market Skim Through: MPI, MWC, AC, DMC, hit with regulatory bad news, market recovery stunted

What bad timing by MWSS. Our market is on its path of needed recovery until this regulator unleashed a big-impact ruling. Can we expect them to adjust their schedule to the stock market? Probably not, but since MWSS board  know ahead that both MWC and Maynilad will not swallow a rate reduction, and would go to arbitration, the least that they could have done is announce that the issue will go to arbitration directly. And that the fair rates will be determined after arbitration. Unleashing a proud memo with an imposed -16% reduction in water rates is not the best direction for the multitude. After this order, the two companies now announced anyway that they will continue to charge current rates, so there's no benefit in announcing immediately reduced rates after all.

	Stock Code	Last	Change	%Change	Value
1	LMG	2.0900	-0.3900	-15.73%	2,090
2	VITA	0.7000	-0.1200	-14.63%	567,740
3	LAND	1.5300	-0.1700	-10.00%	291,420
4	MPI	4.7000	-0.4000	-7.84%	364,749,731
5	PX	9.1200	-0.7600	-7.69%	55,174,061
6	EG	0.0150	-0.0010	-6.25%	226,500
7	LCB	0.4900	-0.0300	-5.77%	10,623,370
8	MRC	0.0900	-0.0050	-5.26%	22,440
9	OPM	0.0180	-0.0010	-5.26%	3,985,900
10	ORE	1.4500	-0.0700	-4.61%	132,070
11	DMC	46.2500	-2.1500	-4.44%	42,961,425
12	ROX	2.4000	-0.1000	-4.00%	78,200
13	MWC	31.0000	-1.1500	-3.58%	123,876,820
14	BDO	72.5000	-2.5000	-3.33%	224,559,549
15	MAB	0.0290	-0.0010	-3.33%	1,067,000
16	AGF	2.3900	-0.0800	-3.24%	125,140
17	HI	6.1100	-0.2000	-3.17%	227,088
18	DIZ	5.1000	-0.1500	-2.86%	220,735
19	ABSP	31.8000	-0.9000	-2.75%	16,434,380
20	DMPL	25.8000	-0.7000	-2.64%	10,511,185

Although the sword is hanging on MWC and Maynilad's heads since two months ago, when activists and some politicians took up the popular issue (regarding why the two concessionaires are passing on the VAT that they pay to consumers), the announcement still came up as a surprise.It negatively jolted the prices of four important index issues.

AC was on its way to a respectable increase, MPI on a gradual run-up, DMC being supported by buy-ups of the Consunjis, and MWC part of a group that is also recovering, but all four promptly went down after lunch when the disclosure was put up. MPI went down -7.84% in closing, behaving like a bazur. 

I wont argue here whether the ruling is right or wrong. That should be answered by what's written in the concession agreement. At this point, the arbitration needs to move fast. If it's proven that the government changed rules in the middle of the game, they should retract promptly.  If it's decided on the other hand that it's not right for company taxes to be passed on to our water bills, MWC and Maynilad would have to look hard at the viability of the infrastructures they are planning for the future. The rate reduction will impact their top line by a huge -16% in one go. The reduction/pain will not be gradual.

At our end, as consumers, I think everyone can say that water pressure in our homes improved vastly from when everything was still being handled by MWSS. And the cost of electricity is the more painful utility than water.

As a stock market participant, we have no choice but to be hands-off on MPI and MWC. MPI in particular was in my radar the past few weeks for its cheap  valuation and price swings (a good candidate for range trading). It was a definite buy before at 4.9. What happened instead was I escaped with breakeven yesterday, and now will be waiting with one tranche buy at 4.6. If MWSS's move turned out to be another unfortunate catalyst for a downtrend, well damn damn damn, we really have to wait until Christmas to take our PSE to where it should be. Im betting is should be 7200 by yearend. But now, I think 6800 is more realistic. 

Market Skim Through: August 06, Are they really bargains?

PSE index tumbled down -1.37%, but many are still thankful because it was nearing -2.0% earlier in the day. PSEi is going deeper below its short-term moving averages, so chartists indeed exited in the morning. But many funds clicked buy in the afternoon, which also brought the volume to a decent 5.95 volume. Foreigners were net sellers mostly because they continue to unload Sy stocks, but these funds also bought some index issues like MEG, which recovered to positive.

#	Stock Code	Last	Change	%Change	Value
1	PORT	9.6000	-3.8600	-28.68%	960
2	SPC	4.8000	-0.5000	-9.43%	48,000
3	CSB	11.5400	-0.9600	-7.68%	463,056
4	SEVN	130.0000	-9.0000	-6.47%	358,110
5	PRIM	1.6100	-0.1100	-6.40%	54,950
6	CDC	1.0500	-0.0700	-6.25%	32,710
7	FFI	14.8200	-0.9200	-5.84%	8,836
8	EG	0.0170	-0.0010	-5.56%	23,900
9	ARA	1.3200	-0.0700	-5.04%	342,800
10	LIB	2.0000	-0.1000	-4.76%	734,000
11	OPMB	0.0200	-0.0010	-4.76%	2,100
12	T	2.1000	-0.1000	-4.55%	21,000
13	MAKE	27.5500	-1.2500	-4.34%	5,510
14	AP	32.0500	-1.4000	-4.19%	51,093,170
15	MWC	31.1500	-1.3000	-4.01%	71,176,810
16	SOC	1.0300	-0.0400	-3.74%	431,990
17	HI	7.2400	-0.2600	-3.47%	5,749,837
18	RCB	50.2500	-1.8000	-3.46%	14,116,674
19	EEI	12.0000	-0.4200	-3.38%	13,051,840
20	FGENG	111.6000	-3.7000	-3.21%	11,160

AP and MWC are in the list of worst performers, because of separate news items. AP, because supposed to be power will be the first to get hit by impending rising interest rates. The company's latest earnings report is also not too good compared to last year because of forex losses. MWC, on the other hand, is still threatened by a possible new policy of disallowing them to pass on VAT to consumers. (Changing the rules in the middle of the game = always bad for business).

Albeit the perceived low prices... Cash is still my pick of the week. However it is still useful to ruminate on these:

Sy Stocks are battered. What among BDO, BEL, SMPH, SM, SMDC are now bargains? BEL has potential I think as we near December. Gaming stocks should jump very high as it nears the opening of a new casino. BDO is a bargain at 10 p/e. The rest must find their bottom.

MPI, although it entered my previously declared price entry range,  I wasnt able to get in at 4.93 this morning (conflict with a meeting). Might have another chance within the week?

I added a tranche of MBT at 103.5; thankfully it rose to 105 + in the afternoon. This stock might be a good opportunity to profitably range trade again. Im keeping my substantial position. I also reentered BDO after cutting a small loss yesterday. The bank also recovered decently today, already showing me a bit of profit. But all these are gambles, mind ya.

There's a fighting chance that our market will be green tomorrow. JFC piled on good, confident numbers (and a relatively high divs announcement at that!) to encourage our PSE to show some life. Could be the needed antidote to what SM prompted.

Depending on you appetite for risk, you may get in or not. If you decide to get in, I cant over-emphasize the better-for-risk move of buying in tranches. Do not go all-in. Buy staggered.

If you decide to be on the sidelines, youre aligned with an experienced group of Ghost Month believers. (the month officially starts tomorrow and ends September 4). But would not hurt to be on the lookout for strong companies that are perhaps being sold-off by locals but becoming interesting for foreign brokers.

Good luck!