Pumapapalag ang Tubig

Ayon sa aking pansamantalang pamantayan na obserbahan at hulihin ang mga stock na may tatlong nagtutulung-tulongang banyaga--ang magtutubig na MWC ang aking nakita noong Lunes hanggang Miyerkules. Nagtutulung-tulong ang CSUISSE, PEP, MACQ, DEUTSCHE, atbp sa pagbili ng isang ito.

(Malikot pa rin, pero mukhang may nagsisimulang mag-ipon na na mga banyaga (tignan din ang paglaki ng bolyum).  

May natunugan na kaya ang mga foreigner na balita tungkol sa arbitration sa Singapore? Hindi ba inaabot nang taun-taon ang pagdinig sa mga korteng ito? Katakut-takot na sandwich, bayad, at pa-lunch sa mga abogado ang wawaldasin pa ng MWC at ng ating gobyerno (para ipaglaban ang posisyon ng MWSS) bago magkaron nang kaliwanagan ang kaso ng tamang singil sa tubig.

Magaling naman talaga ang MWC. Dito pa nga nilagay ang magaling na CEO ng mga Ayala na si Ablaza mula sa Globe papunta sa tubigan. Marahil, ginawa ito nila JAZA para palawigin at palakihin ang mas delikado at sensitibong bisnes na ito (mas sensitibo nga naman kaysa sa telekomunikasyon ang ipinapaligong at iniinom na tubig). Alam ko rin na kailangan ng malilikhaing mga hakbang para kumita sa mga baranggay na walang metro, o yaong mga lugar na punung-puno ng ilegal na koneksyon. Malamang nakita ninyo na rin ito... iyong nagsasalimbayang plastic na tubo, goma, hose, at tumatalsik na tubig sa daan.

Sa lugar namin sa Caloocan, ginastusan talaga ang paghuhukay ng daan para maayos ang mga primerong linya at mga kuneksyon sa mga bahay. Pinutol na rin sa proseso ang mga iligal. Ang kaagad-agad na benepisyo sa mga nagbabayad... kakaibang lakas ng presyur sa tubig na di namin naramdaman ng deka-dekada. Kaya't sa ganang akin, maganda naman ang naging pribatisasyon ng tubohan at tubigan natin.

Wag po

Kaya't medyo OA sa akin ang nagtatawag agad na ibalik sa MWSS ang admin ng tubig. Hindi ninyo ba naiimadyin ang pila sa munisipyo? Napapansin ninyo ba na habang maraming naghihintay, maraming tatanga-tangang nakatunganga o nagbabasa ng diyaryo duon at naghihintay ng alas singko para makauwi na?  Bagama't tama nga lamang na tignan ang rekwes na itaas ang singil ng ganun-ganon na lamang.

Mukha kasing guilty ang mga nasa board ng MWSS dahil na-expose ang naglalakihang 'consultation fees' at sweldo nila kaya't gusto agad makabawi, kaya't reduction ang inanawns, kaya ayun sumadsad kasunod ang presyo ng MWC.

(MWSS Chairman na biglang kambyo at anawns ng bawas-singil)

(Naglaho ang singkwenta porsento ng halaga ng MWC lasyir dahil sa pagpapasiklab ni Alikpala. Biruin mo, parang naging BHI lang ang galaw)

Heniwey, hindi man lumabas ang paborableng desiyon tungkol sa kaso, naniniwala ako na makakahanap ng oportunidad sa ibang lugas sa pinas o sa ibang lupalop sila Ablaza para palaguin pa ang kumpanya. Maglalagay na ako ako nang kaunti sa MWC para may paglagyan naman ang posisyong-salapi.

Ang sabi pa nga ng itay ko, 250 to 320 lang ang bill sa tubig ng anim na katao. Ikumpara ito sa kuryente namin? Tumataginting na limanlibo.

Meralco at power plant ng mga Lopez na lang ang tiradurin ninyo, mga katotong tibak.

(Ang mga Lopez ay mahusay lang makapag-isip kung pano makapanlamang at mautakan ang polisiya ng gobyerno. Hanggang ngayon tumitira pa rin sila nang pailalim kung paano makakatabo sa EPIRA at WESM) 

Hindi ko nga pala binanggit dito ang pagkakabili ng mga Lopez sa Maynilad at pagkaka-mismanage nito. Laking gudnews nga ng kinuha na lang ni MVP at DMC ang pagmando. Sa ibang post na lang ito.

Be careful with gurus dispensing strong recos on bazurs.... they might just want to get out

We feel an affinity with a certain thinker because we agree with him; or because he shows us what we were already thinking; or because he shows us in a more articulate form what we were already thinking; or because he shows us what we were on the point of thinking; or what we would have thought much later if we hadn't read it now; or what we would have been likely to think but never would have thought if we hadn't read it now; or what we would have liked to think but never would have thought if we hadn't read it now. 

Affinity by Lydia Davis

Be careful. Im seeing so-called Gurus in forums again recommending strongly either bazurs or stocks (like the Lopez-owned, BHI, SMC, LC) that have underperformed others during the bull of Jan - June and tumbled down more than the PSEi average from Jul - September. Most of these issues went down for valid reasons (no growth in earnings, plant facilities combusting, too much debt, regulatory problems etc), the least that these gurus should be including in their recos are these negative things that are still hanging like a sword on the head of these companies. But they don't.

Why do these active forum users are all hyperbole on these stocks then? They probably have big positions bought near the top of these stocks, the classic ipit position, and are wanting to get out to have some cash to prepare for the almost-sure surge of Dec - Mar.

Beware of these people. They are expert re-shaper or omitter of facts to get your affinity.

Although small, I still have minus-15% ipits in stocks like ROCK, SGI, and GERI (because I elected not to cut loss and cut clean (100% of holdings) here when I had the chance). I have even averaged down on them recently, but Im not pushing these as pick of the weeks bluntly without warnings. Im ready to just dispose them in full during strong rallies, if I see that others like AGI deserve my cash more.

If you are attracted by strong cheering, the least that you can do is read up on fundamentals or back read on the forum thread of the particular stock and check for the reason why it fell down hard. At least you know the risks youre going in to.

There are even the worse guru who's dispensing advise left and right but have no skin (no money) on the line. They are like trolls pretending to be experts, being entertained by fools, or enjoying the fact that people follow their instructions to go into dangerous positions, but have no bet of their own.

Then there are also those devils that are on the sidelines watching for short-term gain, and will get out as quick as they get in. They will sell their, say, 500 K PhP out from BHI the moment that they see that their stupid no-sound-basis hyping gave them +1% already in one day. They are just out to get pizza or grocery money. Do not be their donor. 

Recounting Week 39

If I was asked to place a bet last Sunday on whether the market will go up or down throughout last week, I would have bet that the market will go up even by 1%. What happened instead was we went back to a low 4-6 B PhP trading per day, and locals took profit. We're down 2% as a result.

There were also some negative rumours about AGI that made locals sell. That news about its shortchanging of upcoming backdoors and IPO's could be true, but Im ready to average down even if it goes down to 19.

The news about SMC, JGS, and MER also made impact. I made a separate post on this topic.

The main news that brought down equities seems to be the stand-off between US Congress and Obama on budget. Obama should show the lower house that he has some balls to shut down the government if needed. I think Speaker Boehner and his cohorts have smaller balls, and will give in the next two weeks, prompting a rally just before FED tapering news permeates again by end-October.

I profited +3% twice on JGS in the week, and sold half of green MEG just to hedge. I will add in MEG though if it goes down to 3.34 again. Im sticking to MEG as a good pick, with a time frame of two weeks. Im also still holding a significant MBT at 6+% gain
Im retaining cash position at 30%

I also made one tranche entry in SECB, which immediately turned green on the same day. I think its preferred shared rights is good for the stock price in the end. And SECB also tumbled dwon so low from its June high, it has so much room for an intermediate uptrend.

I was also watching VLL, because of its low P/E (good for value investors), new vigorous involvement of basura swimmer (good for 'N' in CANSLIM as explained by James), and solid sales growth. But it seem unable to get past the 5.5 hurdle. And more importantly the sell-side volume is always higher than ask. Im eager to get back to this issue at 5.05, but will probably start with one tranche on 5.15.

And then I also caught up on the last two episodes of Breaking Bad. Ive been a heavy user of IMDB since college (more than a decade ago), and this is the first time ever I've seen a 10/10 score in any film or tv episode. And it's fully deserving this perfect-ness. I cant help but blurt out an audible "wow" after I finished watching it myself, alone, in front of a desktop computer.

Others who are not following Breaking Bad might not be able to relate and be "hit" with the fullest impact of the episode. If you are not yet a Heisenberg follower, start now, even with just the 4th season. It's good to invest time in probably the best series ever in TV history (beating even Sopranos and The Wire).

Thank You, Ben

We know that we're the least on your mind when you decided to continue untouched your QE innovation, but Thank you! nevertheless.

You seem so tired from all the stress, and ready to go back to the academe any time. Thank you for still staying on and doing what you believe is right, doing what you said was right decades ago, when all of them were just your papers and theories on Depression Economics. Just take a vacation for 3 months after leaving on January. Call us if you need recommendations on where to go in the Philippines. It's more fun here. Where can you see boat men, after touring visitors in our coasts during the day, participate in beauty pageants at night?

You the man, Ben!  Props for fooling Wall Street and 'revered' economists, who was wildly guessing 5 - 20 B (as high as 23%!) reduction in tapering that was supposed to start immediately (according to them). That taught them that the boss cannot be influenced by anticipatory news and press releases.

I wish you are my teacher/mentor.

On Woody Allen, Basket Weaving, Therapy, etcetera

"You know in a mental institution they sometimes give a person some clay or some basket weaving? It's the therapy of moviemaking that has been good in my life. If you don't work, it's unhealthy—for me, particularly unhealthy. I could sit here suffering from morbid introspection, ruing my mortality, being anxious. But it's very therapeutic to get up and think, Can I get this actor; does my third act work? All these solvable problems that are delightful puzzles, as opposed to the great puzzles of life that are unsolvable, or that have very bad solutions. So I get pleasure from doing this. It's my version of basket weaving." Read more.

Trading in the stock market may be my own basket weaving. 'Playing' in the PSE has become good therapy vs. office work that is becoming more a struggle and unlikeable as days pass. The company I work for is great, worth fighting for, a firm you can believe in. But the level of absurdity in my particular division is increasing each day. Policy this, protocol that, restriction this, semantics that, write this detailed, but not too long, disdain this, support that, be good with your internal customers but ignore that, do this first. And often times you are asked to pursue a thing that has no clarity, no perceived end. At least in trading, when you sell it's either you've lost money or gained. You lose or you win--it can't be clearer than that.

Also, office politics--it is not necessarily evil. It's the squeak in the gears and pinions or maybe an important lube in office work as we roll along. But for long term, it suits a different animal that's not me. After 5 years in a company grinding with a particular type of power play, I become disillusioned. Or is it just me reaching shelf-life against that kind cubicle atmosphere? Woody Allen is not subject to 'external' control since the very first movie he directed. As long as he does it on budget on on time, there's no pressure from the outside, no boss, no financier looking over his shoulder. When you trade your own money, it's you alone who's clicking buy and sell, and making the decision.

It's good to discover that there is this Woody Allen Documentary. I was elated it was available for torrent (would be impossible to find a dvd copy of this here, even if I do want to go legal). The 3.5-hr film is a great look at a long, productive, and still going-at-it life. I was surprised he cooperated in such a project. At that, with all his neuroses, he can smile as jovially as this:

Watching about his discipline, quirks, 'compartmentalization,' work ethic, urge to finish, brought a 'profitable' learning for me. It's equivalent to reading a book about Allen and his extraordinary yearly output. At one segment he said, "I never had a writer's block." Wow.

Which listed company wouldn't be stunted in five years forward? Which one among our small PSE would consistently and extraordinarily show +15-20% increase in earnings year-on-year? AGI? JFC? PGOLD? Hectic season at work is coming, struggle to finish what has been committed for 2013 is on. I wont have time for trading even a few hours before and after lunch. I would need to park funds for intermediate term, and maybe concentrate only on a few week 'plays' in a short watchlist. If it's cash, then I would need to park in a money market uitf. If its equities, I need the company that has room and strong urge to grow.

***

Btw, my favorite Woody Allen films (in no order):

Love and Death
Bullets over Broadway
Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Match Point
Hannah and Her Sisters
Manhattan
Annie Hall
Whatever Works
Deconstructing Harry
Everyone Says I Love You
Mighty Aphrodite
Deconstructing Harry

Allen's  yearly output makes his films commodities. When his producers ask him to consider just doing 1 in two years to make the audience anticipate them more, he says "that's nonsense." He doesn't have time to read reviews and think about box office earnings, because after finishing one movie, he's immediately on to the next.

This is good practice especially when cutting losses. Dont wallow on a loss for too long after selling, move immediately into analysing the next stock deserving your money. And if you're ding what you like, a master of your own trading rules, be sure to filter out and avoid all nonsense.

Mabilis na tsupit sa Dos

Hahaha. Biruin mo, nasumpungan kong bumili ang ABS sa 33 (umaasa sa talbog) nung Biyernes at nag-post ng 35 agad na sell. Binili din pala ni DW_Capital kanina lahat. Kumita na naman kay Dos! Salamat! Nanonood siguro ng The Voice si DW_Capital...

... Ito ang pasakalye ko para makadagdag ng kumento ukol sa The Voice.

Sarah, isa kang asset. Magkaroon ka pa dapat ng dagdag na kumpiyansa sa sarili. Lumulutang kasi ang insecurity mo kapag nagkukumento ka nang "na-aappreciate ko kapag sinusunod nyo ang mga instructions ko." Dapat lang na sumunod sila, Sarah, dahil ikaw ang coach at magaling kang mang-aawit.

Tapos sinisingitan mo rin minsan ng karanasan sa pag-ibig eklat. Kumbaga kung power company ang ABS, think of yourself as a vital power plant or a valuable asset for ABS. Be confident. Youre now one of that reliable deliverers of revenue to ABS. Kung hindi fuel ang pag-ibig sa power plant, cause lang sya ng down time. Wag na puros Gerard at Rayver eklat. Subalit, maganda ang pagkakaawit mo nito.

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Maigi na tinanggal na ang countdown-countdown vote is now closed ni Toni Gonzaga. Pampatagal lang yang si Toni Gonzaga kasi at minsan kung anu-ano pa ang sinasabi, natitipid tuloy ang oras para sa kantahan. Nakakadisorient kapag pinuputol ang pamilyar na kanta. Parang sumasarap pa lang ang awit, biglang tapos na, kasi kailangang isang minuto lang.

Sasabihin ko rin sanang tanggalin na lang ang pagbabasa ng twitter ng mga nanonood, kasi sayang oras din at wala namang kwenta, puros "galing!" "epic!" generic ang mga kumento. Tanggalin pag walang ispesyal na insight. Pero mukhang requirement ng licensor ng The Voice ang segment na ito, kaya sana magdagdag na lang ng staff na magaling pumili ng mas magagandang tweets.

Wag lang kakalimutan ABS, na ang mga contestant ang primerong nagdadala ng The Voice. Mahusay, magaling, sila Thor, et al. Kakaiba rin ang exit ni Daryll Shy noong Linggo na nanalo pa man din sa text votes pero naungusan lang ni Mitoy sa boto ni Leah. Angganda rin ng pasok ni Patti Austin. Pinanood pa naman namin nuong konsert noong Huwebes. (Inakapela nya ang In My Life. Kakilabot sa Araneta).

GMA7 should get Lani Misalucha back to have its own additional  power plant. Mas kailangan na sya ng Maynila kaysa Vegas.

Manood ng OTJ! Panalo!

 Nagberde nga noong biyernes pero medyo mahina. Hindi ko nabenta ang binili kong SMPH, AEV, at AC na nagsalimbayan ang taas-baba ng presyo buong araw.

Gayunpaman, napakaigi pa rin ng aking Biyernes dahil sa pelikulang OTJ na sa wakas ay nagkaoras panoorin sa Trinoma.

Panalo ang pelikula!

Mahusay si Joel Torre. Napakahusay!

Swak na swak ang pagkakapili sa mamang ito para gumanap kay Tatang Maghari. 

Si Gerald Anderson naman, bagamat sobra ang gigil sa ilang eksena, pasa na rin ang arte. Si Piolo ay talentado naman pero masyado lang maganda. Dapat ginupitan man lang nang mas ordinaryo at pinabaho, pinalagkit, at pinapawis nang onte lalo sa mga barilan at yong mga eksena sa Tondo. Sa mga nagagawi sa mga looban maiintindihan ito. Nasa bungad ka pa lang sa estero, nanlalagkit ka na. Kaya nga di nagkakasakit ang mga bata doon. 

At wala kang masasabi sa supporting cast--mula kila Rosanna Roces, Angel Aquino, Mon Confiado--nakuha nila ang kailangang emosyon o empathy sa bawat segundong nasa screen sila. Si Vivian Velez halimbawa, na gamit lang ang kuko at cutix sa ilang frame, ay naiarte na ang dapat nyang iarteng malupit pero propesyunal na kontratista. Isa pa, sa selpon, sabi ni Vivian "Hindi pwede yan, Tatang..." Kung boss mo ito sa kompanya, at inutusan kang pagandahin pa ang palamuting pie-chart sa report mo, aba, baka nilagyan mo pa ng animation at sound! 

Ang mukhang wala lang sa lugar, at mukhang isiningit lang, ay yaong babaeng syota ni Gerald na naghubad. Pero dagdag na tiket na rin siguro kapag may boobs ang pelikula.  

Hindi predictable ang latag ng istorya. Hindi predictable ang ending. Kudos kay Michiko Yamamoto na sumulat din ng magagandang pelikulang Endo, Maximo Oliveros, Zombadings. Nagsisimula talaga siguro ang ganda ng pelikula sa solidong iskrip.

Hindi rin i-ni-spoonfeed ang mga manonood. Angganda non, irespeto ang talino naman ng manonood na pinoy. Nakibakas sa budget ang Star Cinema, pero hindi sangkot sina Cathy Garcia-Molina, Laurenti Dyogi, at iba pang kulokoy ng Dos na walang ibang alam gawin kundi paulit-ulit na pelikulang kapos, butas-butas ang plot, na pati ang titulo ay kinatatamaran nang pag-isipan (kinukuha na lang sa kanta). Maigi na wala silang input, maski ipinaubaya nila ang kanilang mga artista. Mukhang hinayaan ang mga indie pipol na dumiskarte, kaya maigi ang kinalabasan. 

Malinis at pulido na ang pagkakailaw, pagakakaispat, at pagkakakuha (cinematography). Mukhang hindi lang iisang kamera ang ginamit sa ilang eksena. Ginastusan s'ya sa mga dapat pagkagastusang mga tagpo.  

Ang disenyo ng produksyon ay dinaig pa ang Bourne ni Renner na Hollywood Movie, na mas malaki ang badyet, subalit di naman sinamantalang gamitin ang ganda/pangit at tigas ('grit') ng Kamaynilaan. Samantalang si Matti sinimulan pelikula sa pista ng San Juan (basaan ng tubig) sa makulay na Quiapo, dinaanan ang dilim ng mga eskinita sa Tondo, ang interyor ng mga bahay sa pinagtagpi-tagi sa mga estero at looban, at buong tapang ding ginamit ang munisipyo ng Maynila (akalain mong di pa pala tuluyang limot ang Arroceros). Pati ang istasyon ng LRT sa Doroteo Jose at Carriedo (at ang tunog ng pagsasara ng pintuan ng tren) ay ekpertong nagamit sa mga nakakakabang eksena. Naalala ko tuloy ang adbentyurs ko noon sa pagpasok sa isang hayskul, at buhay-buhay sa Sta Cruz. 

Ang galaw ng kamera ay dinamiko. Bagamat kitang-kitang kopya ang sisteng ito mula kina PT Anderson, Brian de Palma, at Wes Anderson, iba pa rin ang dating dahil sa loob ng munti, sa dilim ng Escolta, sa malibag na Hospital ng Maynila ang background. 

Suportahan natin ang OTJ, mga bok, para naman mamuhunan na rin ang ABS at GMA7 sa mga ganitong klaseng pelikula na pwede na ieksport sa ibang bansa. Hindi simpleng aksyon, kakaiba, solido, hindi boring. Kayang-kaya naman pala natin gumawa ng ganito maski patay na sila Brocka at Bernal. 

Ganito ang produkto, Dos at Siyete. Ito ang produktong magpapakita ng husay natin, makakakontribyut pa kayo sa GDP ng Pinas pag nagkataon.

Manood ng OTJ! Ngayon na, bok!

Mag-iinvest ako sa ABS Dis Wik

ABS-CBN--

Ayaw ko ng mga pasentimyentong paawa shows nyo na masyadong mang-take advantage sa mahihirap para magkaroon lang kayo ng content,  sablay ang pa-sensational na news org nyo (lalung-lalo na nang umalis si Maria Ressa) at ang mga dokyu na uunahin ang pag-raid sa isang massage parlor at sex videos kaysa ang mga importanteng isyu na kailangan ng aktibismo, ang soap opera nyo na nagpapahaba lang at pumipiga sa bawat rating maski paulit-ulit na ang plot devices, ang mga pakyut na artista na pulpol naman umarte, ang mga pelikulang walang wenta at puros butas ang iskrip, pero panalo ang THE VOICE. Jackpot kayo rito. Sa wakas nagkaroon na rin ng palabas sa Dos na talagang susubaybayan ko.

Ang akala ko noon naubos na ang magagaling na mangaganta sa dami nang singing contest na pinuhunanan ninyo ng GMA7, hinding-hindi pa pala. At maganda talaga ang tema ng The Voice na, imbis na open ang audition, imbitahan dapat ang mga bihasa na, mga raketero ng bars, mga di nagtuluy-tuloy ang pagsikat noon, mga backup singers, para iwagayway naman sa spotlight ang talento nila.

Totoo namang utusan lang mga ang iskawt na magtanong sa mga bars kung sino sa mga kilala nilang mahusay rin, talaga namang makakamina pa ng mga bagong tuklas na kayang kumanta ng Tatsulok (padayon mga Tibak!) at I am But A Small Voice:

Maski itong isang kontes sa battle round na parang alanganin ako dahil iniba ang tono sa pinakaborito kong kanta ni MJ

ay panalo pa rin sa drama.

Sayang, sayang, natalo ang gusto kong kumanta ng George Gershwin sa blind audition (di ka makakarinig ng piyesa mula sa Porgy and Bess araw-araw sa mga pakontes natin):

Nakakapanghinayang, pero ganyan talaga. Kasama ang hinagpis at mga sayang-subalit-datapwat-kungdisinsanay-kungakoyan moments sa magagandang palabas.

Wag kang malungkot Michaellen. Kukuhanin ka na ng mga bar na uber-bongga magbayad dahil sa dalawang pakitang gilas mo. Wag ka nang tatanggap ng raket na mas mababa sa Dusit, Intercon, et al. O di kaya, lipat na agad sa GMA7.

Ito lang--para sa Dos--

• sana binabayaran ninyo na ng talent fee ang mga awitero, maski contestants pa lang sila. Antindi na, sila na ang nagbibigay ng content sa inyo. Wag masyadong sarilihin ang kita mula sa advertisers. Mag-pondo na sa karma at para magtuluy-tuloy ang The Voice ng ilang seasons.
• Tsaka pigilin ang sarili kapag natutuksong lagyan ng sangkatutak na storyline tungkol sa "kailangan ko ng pera para makapagpaaral sa mga kapatid." Oks lang na pangrekado/pangdagdag ito, pero nakakasuya na pag parati at paubos-oras ang dating. Lahat naman tayo kailangan ng salapi, maliban sa 0.1% siguro ng populasyon. (Kung sa US 1% ang sobrang yaman at yaman pa nang yaman sa ilalim ng kapitalismo, malamang satin 0.1%). 

Thor, Janice, Rhada, Mitoy, atbp, tataya ako sa ABS dis wik dahil sa inyo. Mamayani sa akin ang content at ganda ng produkto kaysa sa kung anong pattern sa chart o estado ng volatility sa ating merkado.

Sugod The Voice! Pasiglahin mo ang presyo ng ABS sa Stock Market!

Pagpasensyahan ninyo na, baka magsulat ako ng tungkol sa The Voice nang lingguhan.