Looking Good but (but with -->caveats)

My port is going up, cash position is healthy.

News reports say that inflation is still within acceptable range and the BSP is sending indicators that it will not be increasing interest rates soon.
-->Although inflation in itself still worries me. Because of my day job, I know that pork prices is increasing steeply because of factors overseas. The boom in construction is ongoing, while the new cement plants of LRI, et al are still not yet on line. These will continue to have a natural inflationary effect on local prices.

Previously sleeping stocks in my main port have awakened with a bang. FLI, perhaps because of its well-crafted press release, was again noticed by both foreign and local funds. I liked how FLI included these sentences in the release:



Lot prices at Filinvest City have hit a high of Php186,000 per square meter, significantly above the previous highest price achieved during the height of the property boom in 1997, right before the Asian Financial Crisis, and the price of Php115,000 Php per square meter in 2012.

I like how they highlighted that lot prices in Alabang has nowhere to go but up. And that no one has the better land bank (still for sale) in that part of Manila than FLI. 

-->But I still dont like Filinvest's project locations in Metro Manila. Their Oasis condo compound in Pasig is an Oasis of because if becomes a sea of floodwater when it rains. Im still ambivalent over FLI as a long-term holding. 

TA is also showing some vigor again.
-->but some locals just wanted to exit, impeding its upsurge.

The banks are showing strength at last. Im green again in BPI (entered just last week) and MBT (old holding + returns). I still have some SECB also. 

-->But again, any policy change by the BSP will zap even a 10% gain in any one bank. 

So, bottom line, I might sell big in May and/or June. And I still intend to sell at 6800 as earlier set and declared in this blog. 

Contemplating for the next 4 weeks

After two weeks, got to assess positions only now.

The last two weeks have been good. Might have sold too early some partial tranches in JGS and MEG, but I still have substantial position in both in my other port. Only the cut loss of MER seem as the one mistake. Cash position increased to 45% when my sell points in ANS was hit. I averaged up in MBT and added some in FDC and AEV last Friday to return to 30-35% range.

Also in my other port, a minor blunder was in playing, although small, with LC, but Im still holding that. 0.4 seems to be a very strong support for this once-index component.

Im now looking at the following:

• BEL and MCP seem to be amping up in the press its strength with having the Hos as operators, and their existing junket system with high rollers, as predicted. I sold all my BEL with a small gain at 5.1 two weeks ago. If this breaks 5.4, Im getting in again.

• TA seems ready to go up again to 5.4 (minimum), but I have already a substantial existing position. wont be adding more.
• DNL seems eager to return as well to 7+, but I hope to see more volume.
• Im looking for some possible cup and handle formation (I believe in this Technical Analysis pattern, if only because it seems to be based on probable human psychology especially apt for after a downturn. If you dont know the pattern yet, best to google about it and read).

• The main Sy stocks--SM and SMPH--might fit this pattern before going back to their high June prices. 
• JGS might also exhibit cup-and-handle before going back to 45+. The IPO of Robinson's retail might also bring some influence to prod it to breach 50+, but I'll be contented to start selling at 45 - 48. 

• TEL appears wanting to go down next week. I'll be buying starting at 2830 again if it reaches that level.  
• Properties appear ready to go up in unison. Have to have in watchlist VLL, ELI, GERI, ROCK, and CPG. These companies have good income growth this year, and they are far away from their 52-week high. I'll probably buy into the one that show good strength on Monday, but among them VLL might only be the one for long term.  

Will make my pick of the week on Monday among these mentioned stocks. And that pick's hold time frame will be for minimum within four weeks. 

Will lightning strike thrice?

The FOMC will meet Sept 17-18, US Time. Bernanke will hold a press conference most likely Thursday morning, our time. We'll have two days of trading left in the week after his announcements.

At this time though, it's definite that the US government's printing of money will taper off. The remaining question is only: by how much?

Foreign funds continued to exit out silently--from SMC, some banks, other conglomerates the past 2 weeks. They only bought significantly Wednesday and Thursday and then became net sellers again on Friday at small 50 M. (They could have been net buyers if not for the MWSS's surprise ruling). These funds' moves should have reflected already what they believe as appropriate steps side-by-side with the amount of tapering that they are predicting.

There are also speculations that foreign funds have withdrawn from our market enough, they cant wreak havoc with same amount that they've done on two occasions in June and August.

Bernanke and his team also is now very aware on the debilitating impact of their every words and hint the deliver regarding quantitative easing. They should want the least jolting in world markets. There is also no real pressure to cut QE big in one shot. The Fed should start minimally tapering in single-digit %.

All these are optimistic scenarios. What if lighting did strike thrice? What if our PSE is really that small that even at the slightest tapering, the equivalent funds that would be better off back in the US markets will wreak -8 to -10% downtrend in a single day? What if the foreingerz's shock and awe extends to Friday, even?

The best solution will be according to the rules that you will set. The most common can be:

1) Set your cut loss percent ahead. Think about that one number hard. Those that cut last time at -10% was frustrated to see the price recover (pushed by locals) in 2 days. While in June those that chose to bear -10% saw prices tumble down -15% or more. Set a % where you'll be comfortable with even if whipsawed

2) Have a strong cash position that you can use to average down on current holdings. This is assuming that your current port is a pool of fundamentally-solid company, and among those firms that showed at least +10% earnings growth this first half. If youre holding GREEN, PHES, LC, JOH, and bazurs cut-loss is the only solution. If youre holding AEV, AC, TEL, JFC, AGI, et al I suggest you average down starting at -8% from its price on Wednesday. My recommended cash position is 30% cash as budget (war chest) for this averaging down. Why not sell more holdings beginning tomorrow to prepare for Thursday? I think there's a chance our market will be positive next week (overall). We're fresh out of Ghost month, and historically our market gains are respectable on these dates. There's even that chance of a Moody's upgrade. You wont have a chance to gain substantially from this [also possible] uptrend if youre out of the market or have too much cash at 60% or 80%.

On Woody Allen, Basket Weaving, Therapy, etcetera

"You know in a mental institution they sometimes give a person some clay or some basket weaving? It's the therapy of moviemaking that has been good in my life. If you don't work, it's unhealthy—for me, particularly unhealthy. I could sit here suffering from morbid introspection, ruing my mortality, being anxious. But it's very therapeutic to get up and think, Can I get this actor; does my third act work? All these solvable problems that are delightful puzzles, as opposed to the great puzzles of life that are unsolvable, or that have very bad solutions. So I get pleasure from doing this. It's my version of basket weaving." Read more.

Trading in the stock market may be my own basket weaving. 'Playing' in the PSE has become good therapy vs. office work that is becoming more a struggle and unlikeable as days pass. The company I work for is great, worth fighting for, a firm you can believe in. But the level of absurdity in my particular division is increasing each day. Policy this, protocol that, restriction this, semantics that, write this detailed, but not too long, disdain this, support that, be good with your internal customers but ignore that, do this first. And often times you are asked to pursue a thing that has no clarity, no perceived end. At least in trading, when you sell it's either you've lost money or gained. You lose or you win--it can't be clearer than that.

Also, office politics--it is not necessarily evil. It's the squeak in the gears and pinions or maybe an important lube in office work as we roll along. But for long term, it suits a different animal that's not me. After 5 years in a company grinding with a particular type of power play, I become disillusioned. Or is it just me reaching shelf-life against that kind cubicle atmosphere? Woody Allen is not subject to 'external' control since the very first movie he directed. As long as he does it on budget on on time, there's no pressure from the outside, no boss, no financier looking over his shoulder. When you trade your own money, it's you alone who's clicking buy and sell, and making the decision.

It's good to discover that there is this Woody Allen Documentary. I was elated it was available for torrent (would be impossible to find a dvd copy of this here, even if I do want to go legal). The 3.5-hr film is a great look at a long, productive, and still going-at-it life. I was surprised he cooperated in such a project. At that, with all his neuroses, he can smile as jovially as this:

Watching about his discipline, quirks, 'compartmentalization,' work ethic, urge to finish, brought a 'profitable' learning for me. It's equivalent to reading a book about Allen and his extraordinary yearly output. At one segment he said, "I never had a writer's block." Wow.

Which listed company wouldn't be stunted in five years forward? Which one among our small PSE would consistently and extraordinarily show +15-20% increase in earnings year-on-year? AGI? JFC? PGOLD? Hectic season at work is coming, struggle to finish what has been committed for 2013 is on. I wont have time for trading even a few hours before and after lunch. I would need to park funds for intermediate term, and maybe concentrate only on a few week 'plays' in a short watchlist. If it's cash, then I would need to park in a money market uitf. If its equities, I need the company that has room and strong urge to grow.

***

Btw, my favorite Woody Allen films (in no order):

Love and Death
Bullets over Broadway
Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Match Point
Hannah and Her Sisters
Manhattan
Annie Hall
Whatever Works
Deconstructing Harry
Everyone Says I Love You
Mighty Aphrodite
Deconstructing Harry

Allen's  yearly output makes his films commodities. When his producers ask him to consider just doing 1 in two years to make the audience anticipate them more, he says "that's nonsense." He doesn't have time to read reviews and think about box office earnings, because after finishing one movie, he's immediately on to the next.

This is good practice especially when cutting losses. Dont wallow on a loss for too long after selling, move immediately into analysing the next stock deserving your money. And if you're ding what you like, a master of your own trading rules, be sure to filter out and avoid all nonsense.

CANSLIM Kabanata 1

Binabasa ko ang librong ito sa aking ayPad.

Sinulat sya ni Galgani

na alagad ni Bill O'Neill na sumulat naman ng mas mahabang librong ito:

Nakailang edisyon na ang mas sikat na librong green. Si O'Neill naman ay tanyag na tanyag din bilang matagumpay na investor sa US stock market, kung kaya't ang kanyang CANSLIM (na itinutulak ng parehong libro) ay kilalang-kilala rin.

Ang libro ni Galgani, ayon kay Galgani, ay suplemento sa aklat ni O'Neill. Mas tutok sa aksyon at mas binibigyan daw ng diin ang mga hakbang, at mas ineengganyo ang mga nagbabasa na simulan na ang mas matalinong sistema (gamit ang librong blue). Hindi kinakailangang beginner investor ka dahil kung pulpol ang sistema mo, nais ni Galgani na iwasto ka para di maubos ang iyong kapital. (paraphrase ko na ito)

Bukod dito, mahigit 500 pahina yata ang libro ni O'Neill (ang alam ko meron si Turmukesh nito), samantalang ang kay Galgani ay mahigit 200 lang. Dagdag pa, kung eestimahin ang bilis ng progreso ng pagbabasa ko sa kindle app, mukhang malalaking letra pa ang pagkakaprint sa libro, bukod sa bugbog ng mga charts. Hindi malabong matapos ng isang lingguhan ang aklat ni Galgani kung ganadong-ganado ka. Sa normal naman... akong kumakayod araw-araw nasa 3/4 na wala pang isang buwan.

Susubukan kong sumulat ng ilang komento sa bawat kabanata ng libro, para rin maging solido ang sarili kong pag-aaral.

Ito na ang para sa Kabanata 1:

Sa unang pasok pa lang ang diin agad ng awtor ay tungkol sa kailangang proteksyon sa pera na pag-aari na, kailangan ang malasakit sa kapital, kailangang hindi mawala ang perang nasasayo na. Anya, masusunod nang madali ito kung susundin ang kanyang unang patakaran: "kapag ang isang stock ay bumagsak ng 7% - 8% mula sa pagkakabili mo, BENTA na agad. Walang nang tanong-tanong." Makikita raw na mas madaling mapapalago ang pera kapag sinunod ang tuntuning ito. Pati raw sila O'Neill daw ay nagkakamali. At ang mga magagaling na investor ay mabilis na aakuin ang kanilang pagkakamali sa pamamagitan ng pagkitil sa pagkatalo, habang maaga pa.

Ang pangalawang alituntunin, bumili lang ng stock kapag ang buong merkado ay kumpirmadong paakyat na (in a confirmed uptrend). Ang dahilan: kapag bulagsak daw ang merkado, 75% ng stocks ay kasamang babagsak kahit ganong kagagaling ang mga kumpanyang ito, kaya't dapat mamili lang kapag pataas ang palitan para mas mataas ang pag-asa ng taya.

Ngayon, paano malalaman kung nasa confirmed uptrend na ang stock market? Simple lang... kailangan daw tumingin sa IBD.com at tignan kung may nakasulat na "confirmed uptrend."

Ito ang unang puwedeng ipula sa libro. Mukhang hindi agad siya akma sa kahit saang market sa labas ng Estados Unidos. Dangan kasi, gusto agad pagkakitaan ang mambabasa para mag-subscribe sa IBD.com, e hindi pa nga nakakaporma sa unang kabanata.

Isa pa sa likot ng ating merkado... at sa nakita nating dali (easying-easy ika nga) at walang pakundangang kayang pabagsakin ng mga banyaga ang esem ng -10% sa isang araw, baka ang "benta agad kapag 8% na ang talo" ay mahirap rin lalo't kapag ang araw na yun ay araw lang ng paglabas halimbawa ng iisang naghaharing Deutsche. Kumbaga, hindi ganong kalaki ang ating PSE para sabihing -8% sa isang stock ay palpak taym na at kailangan nang lumabas. Mas maigi kayang maglagay man lang ng araw na bibilangin bukod sa porsyento ng talo? Halimbawa, kapag tinamaan ng -8% sa loob ng limang araw o higit pa?

Subalit dito pa lang, sasabihin ko na ang lohika ng -8% ay may katumbas ng +20% sa sistema nila Galgani. Sa mga susunod na kabanata, ang utos naman ay magbenta kapag umabot na ng +20% ang ganansya. Ito ang halimbawa ng risk-reward na sinasabi ng mga eksperto. Ang risk:reward sa kasong ito ay 1:2.5. Matatalo ka ng piso sa ilang 'kaunting' pagkakataon (kung susundin pa ang iba pang batas ng CANSLIM) sa bawat tatlong pisong kikitain (maraming beses mangyayari, kung susundin ang iba pang utos ng CANSLIM) .

Ang iba pang laman ng kabanata ay mga eksampol at suporta sa dalawang kautusan, at pahapyaw sa mga susunod na sangkap ng canslim, mula sa pagtingin sa mga dating pangyayari hanggang sa mga totoong stock na perpekto sa canslim at swak na swak kung pinasok ayon sa mga ituturo ng libro.

Sa huli, bagamat hindi syento porsyentong akma sa PSE ang mga hakbang na idinedetalye, solido ang sinasabi ng Kabanata 1. Kung hahayaan nyo akong i-paraphrase:

• matutong mag-cut-loss ng mas mababang porsyento kaysa sa pinaplanong kita.
• wag papasok nang hindi pataas ang merkado; matutong maghintay.

Yun nga lamang, kailangang alamin kung akma ba ang -8% sa atin, lalo kung shakeout lang ang nangyayari sa isang stock na nag-te-trade lang ng kaunting milyon (average na kung baga sa atin, pero maliit pa rin para sa mga banyaga). Kailangan bang mas mataas, mga -10%? At pwedeng 25% naman ang pagbenta para hindi mabago ang risk-reward ratio? O lagyan ng ilang araw na palugit (ibenta sa  -8% kapag inabot ito ng isang linggo)?

Kailangan ding malaman at gumawa ng sariling sukatan at indicator kung kailan ang uptrend para sa PSE (dahil hindi tayo minomonitor ng IBD.com). Kapag lumampas na ba sa 200-day simple moving average ang presyo ay confirmed uptrend na?

Sa susunod na Linggo, sisikapin kong magsulat naman tungkol sa Kabanata 2 ng libro ni Galgani.

Further comment on the bloodbath of August 23

Hindsight is always 20/20. But still, we could have avoided some losses.

During the past weekend, widely circulating news in Bloomberg were already saying that it's probable that FED meeting minutes will show unanimous agreement on QE easing, and that everyone feels that reduction in the US govt's money printing will start in weeks (not next year). In this case, it is not important what date is actually inside Bernanke and Gang's heads, but only the sentiment of big funds, which in turn represent the short-term sentiment in our modestly-size stock market.

Monday could have afforded us 3 days of elbow room to reduce positions two days ahead of the actual release of the minutes, since the minutes could contain one of the dreaded scenario we've been mentioning since months ago.

However 2 days of massive rains and flooding + a holiday conspired. By the time our market resumed, the should-be loss have already accumulated to the minds of foreign masters, and the news on the FED are also already on our faces. Result: -6% poured in one accumulated shot, and almost 7% loss at one point in the trading day! In fact, at opening, most stocks presented only two options for current holders: swallow -5% upfront or average down. The foreigners are merciless in selling down. They dont wait intraday for rallies if exit is their decided direction. (Are we really that miniscule in terms of their portfolio spend?)

The frustration of being at the mercy of foreign funds is for another blogpost. The learning for now is to respect and always be aware of upcoming news overseas similar in nature to a previous one that already hurt us (in this case, that same news of impending QE easing hit us similarly hard, just a few weeks ago). This particular move (and corresponding news) is a sword that was on the top of our heads since June. Some of us just thought that Moody's can somehow neutralize it at least for our market.

Any, now, it's important to sense when will this selling be enough to these foreign funds. Would they really elect to divest all the positions in the Philippines? Will our Chinese compatriots really not use a cent investing during Ghost month? When's the right time to come in? The safest way is to stay on the sidelines and come back September9.

But I think bargains are bargains, and we must attempt to prop up and run our own market when the prices are right. When the prices are fair on the backdrop of our OFW's hard-earned remittances, on the promise of our growth, we should go in. I will gamble even if most will just choose to weather out Ghost month (which will be over in a few days). James K Nava's selection is sound. On top of that lineup, I will also add MPI and JGS (my original picks of the week) on the first page of my watchlist.

Gamble on the Philippines!

Thoughts on SUN

SUN tripled its price in just 3 trading days.

(SUN a-blazing!)

In recent memory, Andrew Tan is the only one that comes to mind in terms of considering small-time investors in his decisions affecting his listed companies. Just in the past 6 months, Ang, Razon, Co, Lopez, et al, offered stocks at steep discount in overnight placements wrecking portfolios of the so-called 'investing public.' (Additional note to these CEO's: if you are part in wanting to encourage more FIlipinos to participate in equities, overnight placements at 10 - 20% discount vs. current price is not a way to do it). While AGI's own purchases in MEG and GERI were at +10% or so premium against current market price.

(The noble Dr Tan?)

What initially prompted the upsurge was the upcoming stock rights offer at 1 PhP, already-almost double of its price at the time of the disclosure. Afterwards, what stoked the price increase further were rumours of backdoor listing of first the Emperador liquor business of Tan, then Traveller's, then now McDonald's.

The other thing that's commendable in Tan and his board is their guarding the secret of this stock rights plan. Everyone (big and small investors) mostly started at equal footing. Those who diligently saw the disclosure early, and bravely decided to make the gamble deserved the profits.

But the question now is whether it is still good for risk/reward to come in an invest in SUN after the 300% increase. These are the things to consider:

1) It is indeed more expensive to do an IPO than backdoor. If there's going to be indeed a backdoor play,

• a) I dont believe it will be for Traveller's. Why go through preparing and spending for IPO (which THI is already ready but held-off only because of current volatility in the market) and then suddenly choose the backdoor route? I think somewhere somehow this is illegal if not simply unethical for Tan to do. 
• b) If it's going to be McDo or Emperador, then the price of this stock will go further, tremendously higher. I wont even dare to choose which between the two is better, will just say that 10-fold (or 10 PhP per share) is definite with either. Both companies are also displaying poise to expand aggressively, so both are fit to list in the PSE. 
• c) There's also a rumor that Stanly Ho (who is still holding positions in SUN) is planning to infuse a company in SUN. This is the one scenario I cant fully grasp. Why would Stanly compete with his son who's already front and center of the operations at MCP? Is there really so much room for so many casinoes for the Manila?

2) Or this could just be stock rights after all and nothing more.

• a) We are weeks in the Ghost Month, next to a steep downturn, and everyone is hungry for storied [and affectionally called] basura stocks. The crowd could just be ganging up on this one issue out of that urge to play one bazur. 
• b) There are only specific brokers like Sincere (what a nice name for a broker, by the way) who are buying up, who either knows the true score, or is part of another evil group who are tasked to pump and dump, like how the original BW scam (and also the hit on CAL) was done
• c) Perhaps the wily investors you see at forums are at it again to take your money and leave you holding the bag at a high price after clarity is released that there will be no backdoor play. (There's a reason why PSE is seeking out SUN daily to give reason/s for ceiling prices. There are already previous news that regulators disdain what was done in backdoor plays for CPG, COSCO, et al in the past). 
• d) Perhaps investors that are left at a high price during SUN's BW past is using this opportunity to jack-up price and exit bigger positions. This goes back to Stanly Ho who reportedly still have positions with prices at 100 PhP/share. Well, it's a long way to get to that level!
• e) Or Tan just wants to dilute the holdings of previous owners of SUN to remove all the bad rep (see below), before he grows this company further? In this case, Tan would not care what price SUN will be in after the stock rights. 

As always, there's no definite picture that can be used as a guide for our move this week. But personally, Im leaning towards Andrew Tan not doing any thing 'cheap' (oxymoron, how can you be cheap if that move can earn big?) and underhanded just to get a few billions more in paper wealth for himself (a la Lucio Co in MMI and APM). If he'll do backdoor, he should announce it within the month and not constantly have disclosures saying "we're not aware of any material transaction that would affect unusual increase in stock price eklat." If youre willing to bet, youll know the result of your bet in the near future.

I was ready to bet a tranche of 20 K PhP before ceiling was reached the first day, but what personally held me off is SUN's own history.  Even up to now, I still believe Andrew Tan shouldn't have bought BW Resources; he already has MEG and ELI (in fact, I think ELI has some overlaps in terms of vision and market with SUN). The stain on this stock that almost brought down our economy shall be forever with it. Dante Tan and Erap himself still might have positions in SUN. (if you still haven't, best to google and read up Dante Tan and BW Resources to know and cringe more).

So, therefore... as is the common advise dispensed nowadays, if you want to bet, bet only the money that you'll be comfortable losing a big chunk out of. I would say, bet the money that you're willing to lose 50% in one trading day (if youre not fast to cut). Weigh risk/reward. The one route you can still earn big in SUN is when 1 b) happens; the rest of the scenarios offer risks.

I guess, as a specific move, if you bet tomorrow, take already a 10% gain; +20% at best. You can stay days if you have time to monitor (remember, sell-downs can happen any minute during trading). And then when you see -10%, cut! Just admit youre too late.

I still dont know myself if I'll bet in SUN. Probably not, because 1) I may not have the time to look at SUN's ticker all day and 2) MBT I think is a better bet--a bet the foreigners will return in this issue this week (considering stock divs ex date and current cheap valuation).

Best of luck!

On Week 33

Pinoystockpickers made sell moves in and nibbled profits from CPG, MEG, and ALI, but these transactions benefitted from buys on Monday, Tuesday, and early Wednesday. The release more of your cash post from end of Wednesday was wrong, especially if one invested in SM. The downward trend of DOW and persisting rumours on the start of QE tapering probably overpowered whatever bull disposition we had in the market. We did proceed to release more cash though in MBT and BEL.

We are also still holding on to paper gains in MBT, AEV, and BDO, based on cautious pick of the week guide posts in the beginning of the past week.

So bottom line, the posts on Monday through Wednesday were mostly on target. On Thursday and Friday... the cup and handle we're banking on did not follow through. Still, however, we were not much hurt by 2-day downtrend, which was mostly caused by SM, SMPH. We did not make any transaction on Sy stocks except BEL.

Sino si Julie Ann San Jose? Ano ang pinagagagawa ng GMA7?

Sino si Julie Ann San Jose? Bakit may isang buong slide na naka-laan tungkols sa kanya sa Investors Briefing ng GMA7?

Platinum Record? Bakit hindi ko siya kilala? Hindi kaya nagmumukha namang desperado ang Kapuso network nyan na magkaroon ng pantapat kay Sarah Geronimo? (Hanggang ngayon lubos pa rin siguro ang pagsisisi ng siyete sa pagbitiw nila sa talento ni Sarah).

Maganda naman pala si Julie Ann:

(clamshell studio lighting na kuha ni Julie Ann, pero hindi pa rin ako nakakarinig ng kanta nya)

(nagpapicture sa malayong kaparangan ng Eastwood si Julie Ann)

Subalit ayon sa kanyang wikipedia entry, parte pala siya ng SOP, Party Pilipinas na lahat nasibak na ngayon. Bakit nga ba hindi makagawa ng mahusay na pang-Linggong kantahan at sayawan? Ibalik nyo na lang kaya ang Bellestar at Vicor Dancers ni Kuya Germs, para nakakatawa, man lamang

Ang hindi kasi nakakaaliw ay ang bumabang kita ng Siyete sa second quarter 2013 kumpara sa 2012.

Nakakadismaya lalo ito kapag inisip na dapat tumabo pa sila sa patalastas noong papasok ang eleksyon. Hhhhmn GMA7. Malamang matagal na matutulog ang stock nito sa kasalukuyan nyang range.

Bagamat kung eentrada kayo ngayon, makakaasa sa mga 2% na dibidendo--dagdag sa biniyaya noong Marso--bago matapos ang taon. Ito naman kasi ang lamang ng siyete sa dos. Ang dos tali sa kasunduan (sa mga pinagkakautangan ng mga Lopez) na hindi basta-basta makakapagdeklara ng dibidendong malaki-laki.

Pero sa Kapuso, bigyang prayoridad na ninyo please ang mga writers. Sila ang magbibigay ng content. At... take risks, ika nga. Madali din naman kayo sumibak ng shows kapag pumalpak. Pakisuportahan na rin ang mga indie films. Maganda raw iyong Sana Dati. 

ON ENTITLEMENT A little break brought to you by IMDB forums

Besides adding a tranche of MBT and a minimum tranche reentry in BDO, I did not have much participation market yesterday. Staying in cash (mostly) according to my own pick of the week.

But reading some stockforum entries impressed in me our growing sense of entitlement while trading. When prices do not go according to their analysis or expectations, we sometimes vent anger on the government, management of the company, Moody's, et al. It feels like events, persons, and the general market owe us gains, because we did our homework, it was hard-earned money we're investing, etc.

Reminds me of Americans during sale events. Im lucky to participate in Black Friday Sales online , because there's a friend who visits the US every December. Im amazed how people in the US get furious mad if they're not given the scarcely-allocated iPod, Xbox, PS3, etc on sale, which seem like necessities to them nowadays. The acid in forums during this sale week at Amazon is entertaining.

And then I saw this in a forum while checking out IMDB for upcoming movies.

STATEMENT:
It's hilarious how you pathetic douchebags think you're OWED female nudity, to the point of getting bitter and angry if you don't get it

REBUTTAL: 
Get a brain ! Lohan is an actress and actresses are ENTERTAINERS....they DO exist to entertain us in exchange for our hard-earned money! If an actress chooses to accept a "sexy" role which is marketed on its sex appeal and the role requires nudity to spice it up, then by all means we have the right to expect the actress to get naked! It pisses me off that there are so many stuck-up, bitchy feministic women who expect the world owes them a living, and that they can do "sex scenes" without even getting naked and make sexy films without even showing any nudity. Screw you! If actresses like Lohan won't do it, the male directors need to grow some balls and start to import European actresses and exclusively use them for ALL their projects (even non-sex roles), so that they become the big stars, then when they need a big star to drop her clothes, they'll have no problems.

And bitches like you are total hypocrites...I bet dollars to donuts you and all your piggish girlfriends rushed out to buy tickets to "Magic Mike", so don't complain when we men demand a little bit of female skin.

Hahaha! And so the sense of entitlement extends to nudity in movies as well.

Here's nudity for you, man:

I'll consciously catch myself and minimize any sense of entitlement. I'll stop before one word comes out of my mouth or repress before one word of entitlement and 'trading-self-centeredness' is typed on this keyboard.

Ba't nagkagan'on ang Esem?

Parang may kasamang panggigigil ang pagbebenta ng mga banyaga at mga lokal:

8% ang isinadsad! Parang LC-Lepanto lang ang galaw!

Napakalaki pa ng volume. Kumbaga sa kontrabida (bear), napakalaking pagbabanta ang ibinato nya sa bida (bull). Baka mabugbog talaga ng husto tayong mga maliliit na investor sa mga darating na araw.

Sumanga at lumampas pa sa 20-day SMA. Sa mga chartists, maliwanag na signal ito para lumabas na at kitilin ang pagkatalo.

Idagdag mo pa na positibo ang mga index ng mga kapitbahay, samantalang tayo halos dos porsyento ang bagsak!

Ano ngayon ang dapat gawin? Bago yan, mga kailangang pagnilay-nilayan:

1) Itong SM ba ang nagmitmitsa ng bagong pagdausdos ng ating merkado? Ilang beses na ipinahiwatig ng mga Sy noon na hinding-hindi sila makikialam sa presyo ng kanilang stocks. Tama pa rin ba ang prinsipyong ito samantalang ang kanilang tyempo ng pagbenta ng ilang milyong halaga ng dagdag ng shares sa malaking diskwento ang nagsimula ng lahat?

(si Bigboy)

2) Bargain na nga kaya ang SM sa presyong ito ngayon?

3) Kumusta ang growth ng SM sa paningin ng mga malalaking mamumuhunan? Ano ba ang tsismis na nasasagap nila? Ibinabandera pa ng esem ang kinabukasan ng Belle at pagpapapalawak ng bisnes sa bansang Tsina. Hindi ba dapat ito ang pinakaunang konsiderasyon dapat sa pagbili ng stock ng Esem?

4) Baka naman nakaplano lang talagang idispatsa ng maraming nakatanggap ng stock divs ngayon ang 'sobra' nilang shares. Baka oks na uli ito sa Lunes.

5) Sa CANSLIM method, upang maging kaaya-aya ang isang stock, isa sa mga kailangan ay may "bago" dapat ang kumpanya. Kumikislap na bago ang pag-iisa ng SMDC, Highlands, at SMPH. Pag natapos ang transaksyong ito, walang dudang pinakamalaking maglulupa, mag-bibilding, at mag-mo-mall sa buong Pilipinas ang SMPH na matitira. At naniniwala rin ako na may matinding sinerhiya sa pag-iisang ito. Biruin mong pwedeng-pwede na magdesisyon ang isang management team lang na ang isang condom, halimbawa, at magkaroon ng  maikli, maaliwalas, at diretsong tawiran papunta sa isang mall. Manenegotiate din ng maigi ang mga kontrata kung iisa lang ang kausap nang mangcocondom at mang-mo-mall. Hindi ba naikonsidera ito ng mga gigil na nagbenta kanina?

6) Umabot na ba sa mga mamumuhunan ang kontraktwalisasyon, pamumutol ng puno, mababang pasahod sa mga salesladies (na hindi man lamang ilibre ng BONUS makeup dahil inoobliga naman nila ang mga dalagang ito na mag-makeup nang husto) at natakot ang mga investor baka umabot sa knila ang karma?

Ang posibleng galaw nekswik...

Pumasok o magdagdag kung naniniwala kayo sa planong paglaki ng Esem. Ako'y mag-oobserba siguro hanggang Miyerkules. Pero kung umabot ng 800 ang presyo, kailangan ng tumaya-taya na nang konti. Subalit kung dumadausdos ang buong indeks, tabi pera na muna siguro. (Ibinenta ko nga pala ang aking Esem isang araw bago ang ex-date stockdivs nila. Nagkaroon ng konsiderableng kita rin).

Pansamantala, alalahanin muna natin ang Yano...

Patingin-tingin, di naman makabile

patingin-tingin, di makapananood ng sine

Walang ibang pera 

kundi pamasahe

nakayanan ko lang pambili ng dalawang yosi

Tung-tung-tung-tung-tururung-tung-nu-nung

--Yano. 

(naalala ko ang sabi ni Dong Abay at Eric Gancio na isa sa mga ibig sabihin ng YANO ay pinagsamang oo at hindi. Anggaling. Pasensya na Eric at Dong, sellout na kami, kapitalista na, alipin na rin ng korporasyon, may mga anak na rin na pagkamahal ang pampers at gatas. bili na lang kami ng colt 45 mamya para alalahanin ang mga mob natin noon na may konsert. Pasundot-sundot na lang sa progreso at pag-unawa sa mga maralitang kasama sa loob ng korporasyon. Padayon.)

Pa-ispesyal na Moody's

Maraming salamat kay katotong Turmukesh sa pagkaloob sa akin ng pagkakataong makilahok sa blog na ito. Susubukan ko ring iladlad ang aking edukasyon at galaw sa maliit ngunit sariling-atin na Philippine Stock Market.

Pero sariling atin nga ba, o sakop din sa manipulasyon ng mga banyaga? Heniwey... nawa'y dumami pa ang mga pinoy na makilahok sa PSE para makalaya na tayo sa mga kuko ng mga Kano, Australyano, atbp.

Nais kong magkomento dito kay paispesyal na Moody's.

Minsan ko nang nakita ang banat na ito ni Thomas Friedman, ang kolokoy na nagsulat ng The World is Flat. Maraming pinahirapan ang librong ito, pero sa ibang araw ko na ipapaliwanag. Ito na lang muna ang quote ni Friedman hinggil sa Moody's.

There are two superpowers in the world today in my opinion. There's the United States and there's Moody's Bond Rating Service. The United States can destroy you by dropping bombs, and Moody's can destroy you by downgrading your bonds. And believe me, it's not clear sometimes who's more powerful.

Susubukan kong isalin sa pinoy dahil pinoy ang panulat ko dito

Dalawa ang matitinding maykapangyarihan sa mundo ngayon, sa opinyon ko. Nandyan ang Estados Unidos at nandyan ang Moody's Bond Rating Service. Ang Estados Unidos kaya kang wasakin gamit ang mga bomba, ang Moody's kaya kang pinsalain sa pamamagitan ng pag-downgrade ng bonds mo. At maniwala kayo sa akin, hindi maliwanag minsan kung sino ang mas makapangyarihan sa dalawa. [anya ni Friedman]

Trabaho talaga ng Moody's na mag-reyt-reyt maski noong siglo-siglo na ang nakakaraan. Moody's Manual of Railroads and Corporation Securities pa ang pangalan ng ibinebenta nila noon na report; Moody's Analyses of Investments na ngayon. 

Biruin mong binabayaran pa sila para lamang malagyan ng greyd ang mga securities? Minsan naman nadedemanda sila dahil nilalagyan nila nang greyd ang hindi naman nagsusumite ng sarili para magpa-greyd. I-google na lang ang mga kasong ito nang maliwanagan. 

Heniweys, itong Moody's na ito ang pinakahuli at mukhang pinakamabusisi bago ibigay ang inaasam na pangatlong Investment Grade Rating ng Pinas. Ito ang magbibigay ng dagdag engganyo at eksaytment sa mga kapitalista na maglagay pa ng pera, at pataasin ang halaga ng mga stocks at bonds sa ating merkado.  

Bagamat nadedemanda rin ang Moody's sa pulpol at posibleng kurap na mataas na rating sa mga walang kwentang bonds noong krisis ng 2008, pinapalabas ng Moody's na prestihiyoso ang analisis nila. Isang grupo pa raw ng mga eksperto ang nandidito ngayon para siyasatin ang mga ekonomista at opisyales ng goyerno, mga data at tala, mga susog at suporta, at... mag-birhaus posible dyaan sa may Paranaque.

Oo, kayong mga taga-Moody's, maiintindihan ninyo ito dahil may pinoy sa pangkat ninyo ngayon. Wag na kayong mag-inarte. San ka makakakita ngayon ng 7.8% na paglago ng GDP? Kung may dinoktor man dyan, di tataas ang diprensya nang 1.0%... ibig sabihin malapit pa rin sa tumataginting na siyete! Ilabas nyo na ang upgrade! Wala nang tse tse buretse! Ibigay nyo na. Ilabas nyo na. Dalawang magkasunod na talon sa rating. A+ na agad para kakaiba kayo, dahil yun ang gusto nyo, at walang kaparis! Papainumin na lang namin kayo kung gusto nyo. Kontakin nyo lang kami rito.

Watch MEG closely... and accumulate?

Megaworld used to be a 'friendly' stock at least before it was hit  (as most others in the index) by the recent indiscriminate sell-off. It was "friendly" in the sense that you can disregard and be unafraid of the daily dips, because you're sure that the uptrend will be in tact even within the month, more so for long term.

Check MEG's one-year performance:

Its uptrend was consistent from April to beginning June. If it goes down, there are two seeming assurances: 1) it wont dip by much, and 2) it will recover back within 2 weeks, almost guaranteed! But this is before the June butchery. During that bloody month, even the 90-day trend (1 quarter SMA) was broken. And indeed MEG can be declared still inside bear territory today.

So the question now is what to do given that it is beginning to show strength and its characteristic small dips that was previously observed as it goes up.

These will be my guideposts:

• Foreign funds must begin to buy. DEUTSCHE, UBS, ATR, et al must come back.
• Forums might give some clue on how many still shell-shocked investors will exit en masse once it enter 3.7 - 4 + price. There are some many Pinoys left holding the bag there, they might just be hoping and eager to exit without question. This will cause a major correction with MEG and may bend to a significant downtrend again.
• do not add up big time. take it slow. better to miss some of the uptrend the be shocked again.
• the next earnings announcement must be at least +10% income, or else... flat is most optimistic.

And will remember these factors that remain in MEG's favor:

1) Megaworld is still the pride and pillar of Andrew Tan above any of his other subsidiaries. If you read any of his profiles and recollections, you can get the impression that MEG is still his favorite baby, he wont leave this stock to the dogs. There were even supports and insider accumulation that he seemed to have greenlit himself to prop the stock up.
2) Local funds are consistently brandishing up its future value. There was even a news item printed by Inquirer no less that it will be at 9 pesos soon, prompting many local funds to buy.
3) All the recent stock options to managers were kept by the insiders; no one divested.
4) its P/E is only at 12. very cheap for an index stalwart.
5) projects are left and right. marketing of these projects also widespread in Manila and major cities in the provinces.
6) It is managed by groundbreaking, ambitious people who are not afraid to take risks to bring the company to greater heights.

I cannot overemphasize the promise of MEG as a company. But on short term, wont hurt to exercise caution.

Range-trading during a period of uncertainty

As Im writing this, PSE index is only 4 points away from 6800. Many 'investors' that were left holding the bag at above-7000, those shell-shocked by the sell-down of foreign funds last month, are starting to smile again. Im partially one of those investors. I chose not to cut loss, or I did not cut clean on most positions, and was only able to 'save' about 20% of my cash. That obviously was a bad move.

But I elected to pool a smaller fund, open another account in another online broker (to sort of start in a clean slate), still trade actively during the uncertainty, and focus on a few securities only, with two criteria: no bazurs (no BHI, no CAL, no TSI, however hyped they are in forums) and no lightly-traded security (no ANS, no SGI).

I profited a good +6.3% (of capital) taking advantage of predicted range trend in MBT, GLO, TEL, DNL, SCC, and VLL and partially (small one-time impacts) in ABS, BDO, ALI.  For example, I was able to go back and trade TEL four times, in the span of 4 weeks. I bought in tranches at 2830 and prices below and then immediately sold whatever I accumulated at 2930ish--no questions asked.

I would like to think that Im an expert with these moves that are suitable in an environment of volatility, but in truth, as most transactions in the stock market, these are all just bets. There were some rational bases, but luck (more like winds going in your favor) still is the bigger factor.

Nevertheless, if you ask for the bases and rules that I used, . Here they are:
1) took on faith that TEL and others are solid companies that is undeservedly cheap at their prices at that time, especially because there's the backdrop of an unusual, severe sell-off. For TEL, below 2830 was my set price. MBT and AEV at one time went below 10 P/E. And the circumstances (caused by merciless sell-off) were abnormal; these should not be their prices as normalcy returns.
2) forecasted that big bulls and bears are going to fight during that time of uncertainty, so small-time investors can benefit from their tussle.
3) when you observe even the daily trade, volatility was apparent. you can place a bid on the perceived lowest before price jumps again and then return to same number (some call these levels true 'strong' supports) in these daily trades and aim to exit in 3 days.
4) for GLO and TEL, I also relied on the fact that these are high-dividend paying securities, and that this fact would also be in the mind of players foreign or locals alike. Remember that if dividend yield of a stock is 4% of its price, you can be comfortable easily a loss < 4%. We know that GLO, TEL, SCC, Aboitiz stocks, MER, are generous in giving out dividends.
5) also held on to our recent gdp announcement --  +7.8%. You dont see that gdp number brandished every day at any part of the world!
6) also disciplined myself to be at least 30% on cash at any given trading day. At one point, after a previously-set sell points on two big positions were hit while I was on a beach, I was only 26.66% invested.
7) buy in tranches, ready to average down if needed. If your revolving capital is 1 M PhP, buy in amounts of 20 K - 30 K PhP. If 500 K PhP, buy in 10 K - 20 K PhP tranches. This is also optimum to avoid inefficient transaction fees.
8) lastly, again... no bazurs , no lightly-traded stocks.

So there, the reasons for my big gains in just 5 weeks.

But, as a caveat, there were downsides and mistakes:
> VLL, TEL, DNL, GLO, have now increased significantly since I last unloaded them, so there are still that couldve-been shouldve-been imperfect calls, bottomline. No remorse from my side, but trend traders would surely fault my method for not taking full advantage of the trend.
> I also made a mistake in buying and averaging-down on GMA7. The media stalwart aligns with #1 and #4 conditions,  but not #8, GMA7 is a non-bazur but it is very lightly traded nowadays. So this bad move was caused by not following set rules completely. Matigas lang talaga ang ulo (inborn stubborn).  
> MER was also a mistake, but it was caused by extraordinary circumstances prodded by SMC.
>> BUT Im still holding Kapuso and Liwanag. The loss in both after averaging down is not even 4% at present. So obviously, these are not staggeringly as bad a move in terms of impact.

Although, again, on hindsight, these are gambles. 'Expert' traders (like CANSLIM practitioners) will tell you never to come in when there is no clear market uptrend. However good the individual stock is, it will get pulled down by negative sentiment. If the volatility had a downward bias on medium term, if Bernanke firmed-up on his decision to ease QE by end of the year and did not become sheepish on his most recent testimony to the US Capitol, I could have been holding another portfolio set showing nothing but paper losses.

Good luck with your trades. The battle continues.

On Banks During Week 30

No, not Tyra, but

BDO
BPI
CHIB
EW
MBT
PNB
RCB
SECB
UBP
AUB
PBB

Our modestly-sized stock market seems to be starting on the uptrend but these stocks appear either just flat, range trading, or in the case of SECB, continuing to go down. They are also relatively cheap in terms of P/E and general expectation, considering that it's well known that banks rake in after investment rating upgrades and all. Nobody would have thought BPI would go back to 92; and who would have predicted two months ago that MBT will be back ranging between 105 - 115?

The short-term concern supposed to be is that these banks have lost a lot during the recent PSE bloodbath and that their Q1 earnings might have been erased by the severe, hurtful market forces of last June. I wont pretend to be an expert attempting to valuate the perceived trading loss vs. their other business and revenue stream (loans, fees, remittances) to validate if the claim is true.  I would just say that the fund managers must be carefully assessing the exposure of each firm (theyre not too many after all) in bonds and equities, and making their moves based a carefully wrought-out reports. Is SECB, for example, the most exposed in their analysis, so theyre continuing to sell it? If youre a short-term trader, best to be safe, listen to what these fundies are sounding-off with their moves, and stay on the sidelines.

But if

1) you are a medium-term trader and is known to wait out result of a gamble in 3 months
2) you believe that Moody's will make its long overdue upgrade this quarter (theyre a damn pompous, self-important, prissy agency if they dont upgrade us in Q3)
3) you are foreseeing that the stock market will go back to 7000 levels in one month...

I would say cheap is cheap.

Choose your pet bank, and place small bets now!

I have averaged down on SECB (I see their branches sprouting out all over metro and think the  20% dividend ex-date will get this stock re-energized on to its upward track, at least on medium term),
Im retaining my BPI core and watching closely if I need to average down further here,
MBT is my pick for week 30.
I would also buy BDO again if it goes below 83.
and closely watching UBP (their CEO is a stalwart of investment banking)

Good luck to us!