Bull!? And what to do?

For posterity, Im writing here that our index reached a record high yesterday. Although it promptly went down due to profit-taking by both locals and foreigners, the uptrend indicator is strong.

I like the now vigorous foreign-buying in AGI. I'll hold even the block I freshly added this week.

I dislike that I dont have MEG anymore. I thought and was hoping it will go nearer for 4, so I can buy again there, but it just surged strong from 4.3. Ah, it's true that any respectable PSE portfolio should have a MEG.

Another perennial favorite (but I dont have at this time) GTCAP also surged to record highs, even with a disclosure of decreasing net income. Growth must still be foreseen in this conglomerate, armed with news from insiders. Im reluctant to enter at this 100+ level, in any case, unless I have that solid info that portends growth.

In any case, what to do right now? What should guide our general moves in the PSE?

Technical Analysts will say that the uptrend is very much intact. That we are in a bull market definitely with the appropriate moving average line above above where it should be above.

But where specifically to place your bets at?

I'd say buy-up and add to a fundamentally-solid issue already thats in your port. Buy up on that stock you have already studied in the past as having promising growth for the next three years. Buy in tranches still, since this might be a reluctant bull.

If you want specifics, Im sticking to the pick of the week.

For 'entertainment,' Im also tempted to go Bazura for short term ... like ELI... one remaining Dr. Tan stock that still hasn't increased enough. For the intermediate period, Dr. Tan should just fold this inside MEG. The only question is at what tender offer?

ELI is not a reco though. Choose your own bazura to gamble in for entertainment. Choose your own Bazura only if you have time to monitor the market.

Formulate your action plan for longer, say the next 4 weeks

My suggestion is to change trading time frame and go 4-6 weeks. Suspend for the mean time the day-trade or 3-day time period. Choose your favorite companies, perhaps those that steadily gave you profits last May-June. Remember, their earnings remained steady as they are--except the banks that lost big in trading (after foreign money pulled-out en masse) and the companies that borrowed heavily in dollars early this year.

There's a theory that the stocks that were not as affected and not too up-and-down shaky during the down turn will also become the first ones jumping in the upturn. PGOLD, JFC, AGI, are three of these stocks. I placed my bet on AGI. If you want to align with this theory, do a quick look at the graphs of all the PSEi stocks and some second liners. Find the one which did not dip too low and did not oscillate too wide.

MEG, although dumped by foreigners in July-August,was heavily bought up again yesterday. It can become the reliable stalwart again. In fact if this becomes a steady hand , the whole index would also be comfortably steady in its upturn. MEG is now moved on the first page of my watchlist, a candidate for adding-up.

AC and MER were also steadily-increasing index stocks before the QE tapering news. They also deserve some focus.

The banks are being bought up by foreign funds again. Search a bank of your own if you still have funds to allocate. Also dont forget dividend paying and those with low P/E, remember those metrics are also being looked at by fund managers.

Half of my holdings in MBT was hit at previously-set 88.5, all remaining GTCAP was also hit at 840 (previously set), as well as tranches in VLL, even before I got the chance to open FMS or BPITrade. Im suddenly 50% cash when I started checking the market. I bought one tranche in JGS and AEV to release some cash. Only AEV was the bad pick, but Im betting this will recover today.

By the way, thank you GTCAP for being a good pick of the week. Although youre not a favorite by locals, you gave me profit 3 times around.

I don't agree with the early profit taking done by our fellow locals late in the morning and late closing. (My own mistake was in not taking time opening PC at home to cancel all sell orders before the market opened). The FED tapering was the most important concern, since we were relieved by that then our market will probably be allowed its "natural" trend, which should be up given the rosy corporate earnings and braggable GDP growth. Im not privy though on the emotions of our fellow pinoys that sold big yesterday (see COL selling figures). They might be shell-shocked new investors  that want to just want exit out unscathed or recover some of the losses.

And yes, the "relief" is only good until November 1.The FOMC will meet again Oct 29-30. By the time we go back on trading again on November 4, there could be a firm announcement on the amount of tapering that will happen within the year.

But at least Ben Bernanke now  laid out more certainty. He said that tapering will not start if US unemployment wont go down below 6.5%. So that's also a number to watch out in the news for.

Now, how would we know when to sell?
1) check the trend. If still going up or above the SMA lines, let your profits run, and MACD histogram trending up or stable.
2) but i'll be comfortable selling at 12% gain. (My current MEG and MBT are already showing 8%)
3) sell when you see the  US unemployment improve to way below 6.5%
4) sell before All Saints day break.
(strong sell if there's combination of the 4 conditions)

And dont forget to read news daily. For instance, you would not know there's another bacman bad news in EDC if you dont read the news for a few minutes.  

Choose to be conservative with a cash position (maybe just for this week)

PSEi broke through convincingly its short-term moving average. MACD is also now [also convincingly] above signal line. To chartists, both are signals to buy.

Technical Analysts believe that the chart should already contain all the story and emotions (or everything 'priced-in'), including the plans and anxiety of the participants of the market. This could mean that the price improvement show there are needless worries for the upcoming FED meeting. And that stocks that jumped high today will jump higher in the coming days. The next resistance levels are 6400 and 6500. At that level, we might see SM at 850 and MBT at 90+. So, given this, what should be our 2-week plan?

I would love to say that it's safe to go long now. Meaning, stop the quick cutloss and stop selling at 3-5% according to our rules in this type of market; hold for longer time periods instead, and probably shoot for 20%.

But I'll be choosing a semi-conservative route. Half of my gtcap was sold earlier on an automatic sell-point set last week (at +6%), this helps me prepare more cash for Thursday. I will also sell some green MBT this morning again to ready higher cash position. And then I will also observe the moves of foreigners more. Even if the stocks that rose already (ike GTCAP, SM, and MBT) surge up to 52-week highs from here on, I think there are plenty of opportunities with other stocks. FLI, FDC, SCC's also have good earnings, but have not yet surged up at this time.

So, Cash is still a useful defensive position at this time. Even if this is now a start of a true uptrend, and we miss some of the equities that already jumped higher, there are still other nice ones (still cheap) to ride in. I recently saw in one presentation that PSE is 60% a listing of fundamentally solid companies. Even if the first 30% already is on an eventual uptrend, we'll still have the other 30%, which we can easily find (our PSE isn't that big yet).

Will lightning strike thrice?

The FOMC will meet Sept 17-18, US Time. Bernanke will hold a press conference most likely Thursday morning, our time. We'll have two days of trading left in the week after his announcements.

At this time though, it's definite that the US government's printing of money will taper off. The remaining question is only: by how much?

Foreign funds continued to exit out silently--from SMC, some banks, other conglomerates the past 2 weeks. They only bought significantly Wednesday and Thursday and then became net sellers again on Friday at small 50 M. (They could have been net buyers if not for the MWSS's surprise ruling). These funds' moves should have reflected already what they believe as appropriate steps side-by-side with the amount of tapering that they are predicting.

There are also speculations that foreign funds have withdrawn from our market enough, they cant wreak havoc with same amount that they've done on two occasions in June and August.

Bernanke and his team also is now very aware on the debilitating impact of their every words and hint the deliver regarding quantitative easing. They should want the least jolting in world markets. There is also no real pressure to cut QE big in one shot. The Fed should start minimally tapering in single-digit %.

All these are optimistic scenarios. What if lighting did strike thrice? What if our PSE is really that small that even at the slightest tapering, the equivalent funds that would be better off back in the US markets will wreak -8 to -10% downtrend in a single day? What if the foreingerz's shock and awe extends to Friday, even?

The best solution will be according to the rules that you will set. The most common can be:

1) Set your cut loss percent ahead. Think about that one number hard. Those that cut last time at -10% was frustrated to see the price recover (pushed by locals) in 2 days. While in June those that chose to bear -10% saw prices tumble down -15% or more. Set a % where you'll be comfortable with even if whipsawed

2) Have a strong cash position that you can use to average down on current holdings. This is assuming that your current port is a pool of fundamentally-solid company, and among those firms that showed at least +10% earnings growth this first half. If youre holding GREEN, PHES, LC, JOH, and bazurs cut-loss is the only solution. If youre holding AEV, AC, TEL, JFC, AGI, et al I suggest you average down starting at -8% from its price on Wednesday. My recommended cash position is 30% cash as budget (war chest) for this averaging down. Why not sell more holdings beginning tomorrow to prepare for Thursday? I think there's a chance our market will be positive next week (overall). We're fresh out of Ghost month, and historically our market gains are respectable on these dates. There's even that chance of a Moody's upgrade. You wont have a chance to gain substantially from this [also possible] uptrend if youre out of the market or have too much cash at 60% or 80%.

Pasawsaw-sawsaw moves lang dapat, mga katoto,

... at itabi agad ang kita. Wag magpapatagal sa baso, 'ika nga sa mga inuman. Magsubi agad ng kita. At kitilin ang pagkatalo kapag masama ang takbo ng presyuhan, o pagkatapos ng average down, e nanghihina na ang ganansya pataas.

Bagamat tinamaan din ako ng kulog ng bagyong pagbagsak kanina, gasino lang ang isinadsad ni ABS,  BEL, at MBT ko. Malakas-lakas pa rin, at nakatabi na ang kita mula sa CPG, TEL, et al. Hindi talaga ako nagtodo dahil kahit papaano, sinusunod ko ang CANSLIM ni O'Neill. Wag na wag daw sasabak nang todo kapag walang 'confirmed uptrend.'

Subalit mukhang nakakatakam na ang presyo ng ilang stocks, kasama na ng grupong Esem. Hhhhmn... baka makataya nang bahagya kahit isa lang kay SM o SMPH.

At dagdag pa diyan, sa ganang akin, marami-rami yata ang araw na lang ang bibilangin e cut-off na ng dibendo-taym. Ayon sa websayt ng PSE, ang mga ito ay malapit na malapit na magpamudmod ng ekstrang kita.

GLO (galante)
TEL (galante)
SGI (pwede na)
MBT (galante)
JFC (galante, lalo't kapag kinumpara sa mga dating ibinibiyaya ni Jollibee)

Ang GTCAP ay nalalapit na rin subalit kuripot ang ibibigay

Kailangan ding obserbahan ang mga ito. Kapag konting pumayapa ang palitan (yung hindi sobrang likot na parang kiti-kiti sa taas-baba ang presyuhan), kailangang tumaya na.

Kumbaga, nagkakaroon ng konting bentahe halimbawa ang TEL, maski bumaksak muli nang 5% pagkataya mo. Maluwag pa rin sa loob na magdagdag sa ibaba dahil may ilang porsyentong elbow room na ibibigay ang dibidendo. Mas kayang magtiis ng sakit kapag may dibidendong siguradong parating.

Kailangang makapagbukas ng online trading bukas, bandang alas diyes y medya, upang makataya sa isa man lang sa mga ito.

Sugod!

Market Skim Through 13 August: Biggish Volume and Prices Increase! Release some of your cash and invest!

Our Market exhibited almost double its daily "ghost month" volume! And jumped up a significant 110.81 points or 1.72%! It's a good day, indeed.  

Immediately, it's time to check your pets and invest. 

#	Stock Code	Last	Change	%Change	Value
1	PA	0.0380	0.0050	15.15%	3,800
2	YEHEY	1.2900	0.1200	10.26%	1,290
3	DFNN	4.7200	0.3700	8.51%	4,077,810
4	APC	0.7300	0.0500	7.35%	2,830
5	CMT	1.0900	0.0700	6.86%	1,375,100
6	URC	123.5000	7.5000	6.47%	443,815,959
7	EG	0.0170	0.0010	6.25%	443,600
8	SMPH	18.0000	1.0400	6.13%	208,292,196
9	CPG	1.2900	0.0700	5.74%	59,144,920
10	MG	0.4750	0.0250	5.56%	17,350
11	ICTV	0.4000	0.0200	5.26%	325,350
12	PIP	6.1700	0.2700	4.58%	21,982,451
13	FDC	4.7800	0.1800	3.91%	701,350
14	AP	33.6000	1.2500	3.86%	37,560,095
15	UNI	0.1680	0.0060	3.70%	82,800
16	PX	10.9800	0.3800	3.58%	18,415,812
17	BDO	81.8000	2.8000	3.54%	130,016,859
18	CHI	5.9000	0.2000	3.51%	12,624,752
19	MEG	3.3800	0.1100	3.36%	251,120,360
20	PCOR	13.6800	0.4400	3.32%	32,095,244

My Katoto, James K Nava, already made the right call with CPG. And this should continue to go up this week. 

If you have no pets yet, you can select from this post last Monday. 

In addition to motivations mentioned last Monday, do take note also that MEG, AC, and Sy stocks are showing considerably high foreign buying (at least this week). Add these to your list of stocks being studied. And then MBT is still at a low price, as well as BEL.

I missed already the jump of GTCAP and AGI; sold too early on MPI, et al, but still holding on to gains in BDO, MER, and holding substantial in MBT. Also went back to SCC as my bet that coal commodity prices will increase again in the coming weeks. Remember: majority of new power plants being constructed are coal-fired.

So I believe my own port will be energized the rest of the week, and I intend to post some buys this evening to add on any three among those that Ive mentioned.

Good luck to us!

Tungkol sa Century Properties at kay Robbie Antonio

Gusto kong mangumpisal: ang akala ko dati ang Century Properties Group ay pagmamay-ari ng mga kapitalista ng Century Tuna. Oo, ang akala ko yung angkan na may isang miyembrong nakapangasawa kay Nanette Medved ay nag-diversify sa pag-co-condominium, pero hindi pala.

Ang Century Properties ay minamando ng mga Antonio (hindi ng Fil-Chi ng Century Tuna na nakapangasawa ng isang Nanette Medved). Ang patriarch ng CPG ay si Jose or Joey, na dating ambassador sa Tsina (niluklok ng mga Arroyo).

(Si G. Ambassador, habang mataimtim na nag-iisip kung pano lalong kumita).  

Pero ang mga pinunong manedyer na umeeksena sa ngayon ay ang kanyang dalawang anak. At sa dalawa, si Jose Roberto o Robbie ang mas madalas magpa-interbyu at ma-kodak-an (katulad nitong larawan sa ibaba na kasama si Paris Hilton, na sumobra naman yata ang pakakapitpit sa dede!):

(Si G. Robbie na kahit anong bihis at porma ay may hapyaw-kargador-na-nabilad-sa-araw pa rin ang hitsura. Hindi mo mapapatungan ang pinoy looks. At bakit mo naman iwawaksi, Pare? 

Isa pang trivia: hindi raw nagsusuot si Robbie ng hindi tailor fit ayon sa isang interbyu. I-google na lang ang iba pa nyang narsisismo). 

Bagamat hanga ako kay G. Robbie sa pagtatapos nito ng MBA sa Stanford GSB (ang hirap makapasok dine), hindi ako humahanga sa kaululang proyekto nyang nagkakahalaga ng isang bilyon. Ang tinatawag pa mandin sa proyekto... Museum of Me. Sanamagan, basahin na lamang dito ang detalye (nasa Vanity Fair pa ang artikel).

(Biruin mong gumastos nang sangkaterbang-sangkatutak si G. Robbie para ipadrowing ang kanyang mukha kila Julian Schnabel, David LaChapelle, et al. Wow! Laglag-panty tiyak ang mga alta-sosyedad na matrona na nagsa-shopping sa Rustan's pagkatapos mag-mahjong) 

Ika nga ni Tiglao sa kolum na ito, di hamak na mas maigi sana na nagdonate na lamang si G. Robbie sa sa Ateneo ng isang bilding at tawagin, halimbawa, na Robbie Da Pogi Hall. Mas magiging pangmatagalan, mas mahaba ang mileage (panghambambuhay pa malamang), at magiging kapaki-pakinabang pa sa mas nakakararami ang isang bilyong piso.

Pero, baka naman sabihin ni G. Robbie  e hindi naman sya alumni ng Ateneo o LaSalle, kaya hindi papayag ang mga trustees na magpangalan ng Robbie the Pogi College of Hair Science nang basta-basta... Ang sagot? Aba, e de magdonate na lamang siya sa Libis Talisay Elementary School at palitan ang buong pangalan nito nang Mababang Paaralan ng Dakilang-Robbie-Da-Greyt-na-dinesenyo-IM-Pei, Inc. Elementary School. Patok yon, at tyak na papayag ang DECS District Supervisor dyaan sa may Caloocan.

Buweno, ang Century Properties ngayon ay lugmok ang presyo at matagal nang nagbabantang bumaba sa 1.2

Sa posturang ito ng presyuhan. mukhang maigi nang tumaya sa CPG bukas at sa mga darating na araw, dahil:

1) mura ang CPG sa 1.2. Biruin mong 5 lang ang P/E, mas mura pa sa ROCK (na isa pang kamote), samantalang di hamak na mas malaki ang kita ni CPG kay ROCK.
2) kung magtutuloy ang nasimulan kanina na pagtaas ng sector ng properties, dapat gumiya man lamang nang +5% ang CPG bago bumaba muli (kung gusto nyang bumaba muli).
3) Mukhang matibay ang suporta sa 1.2; kailangang tumalbog na ang presyo dito, at gumawa nang parang mini-head-and-shoulder pattern man lamang. Kung hindi, dausdos ito sa piso at krisis na (naubos ang pera sa Museo?).
4) dapat mahiya naman si CPG kay VLL na umarangkada na ng husto
5) nakabinbin din ang stock divs na tyak na magtutulak ng presyo kapag inananawns na ang ex-div date.

Bagamat bugbog ng reklamo ang nauna nilang condom dyaan sa Edsa Central na ampaw daw ang dingding, na kapag may nagyuyugyugan sa kabila ay maririnig mo raw ang mga bira at halinghing. (Pero anlakas na lab meyking naman siguro noon)... wag na muna  gano intindihin ito at ang Museum of Me. Lunukin na muna ang vanity ng mga Antonio. (Sana lang hindi ikinarga sa cost center ng CPG ang bayad sa Nakananginang Museo). Tumaya na nang konti sa CPG at ibenta agad kapag kumita na nang 8%.

Mag-ingat na lamang at magdahan-dahan sa pag-invest sa CPG. Mga-average down kapag bumaba pa sa 1.1. Kapag dumausdos pa nang mas mababa sa piso, kitilin na ang pagkatalo at masdan na lang ang mga poster ni Paris Hilton, at ang mga larawan ni G. Robbie-da-Poging-Pogi sa Museum of Me.

Mga minamatyagan, mga plano, at mga inaasinta: BELLE

BEL--bumabagsak ang isang ito dahil ang mothership (SM) ay pinapasadsad ng mga naghaharing pondo. Subalit sa lahat ng may hawak ng lisensya ng pasugalan sa PAGCOR Entertainment City, siya lamang ang garantisadong kumikita at kikita na agad, maski hindi pa bukas ang Belle casino nila. Mangyari kasi, binabayaran na agad ng Melco ang BEL  bago pa man paikutin ang unang roleta o ilahad ang isang baraha sa lamesa ng blackjack. (Aktwali, may isa pang partner na kompanyang pinoy, pero alisin muna sya sa piktyur para lang sumimple ang diskusyon). Medyo kakaiba at may kagulangan talaga ang business model ng BEL. At di araw-araw mapapapayag ang mga partner sa ganitong pakikipag-negosyo.

Iniisip ko rin na may bentahe ang Belle casino kumpara sa Solaire ni Bloom. Si partner Melco dapat ang mas garantisadong makakapagdala rito ng maraming sugarol, dahil konektado na ang pamilyang nag-ma-may-ari ng MCP sa Macau, anak pa man din mismo ni Stanley Ho ang pinuno ng mcp. Sandamakmak na tsinong bagong-yaman ang dapat mahakot ng anak ni Stanley Ho para tumira sa magagarang hotel, maglasing, kumain, at magpatalo ng pera sa Belle Grande Casino, pag bukas nito neksyir. Ang suhestyon ko'y, magtayo rin ng branch ng F168/Airforce at maganda-gandang inuman sa tabi para kumpleto na ang trayanggulo ng bisyo sa lugar nila--alak, babae, sugal!!! Tapos ang mga lokal ay patawan ng entrance fee bago pumasok, a la Singapore, para hindi naman tayo masyadong malulong dyaan.

Ilambeses na rin ako kumita sa pagtaas-baba ng BEL. Tumatanaw ako ng utang na loob, kaya't ipoinoste ko na ang pagpasok sa 4.8. Kapag palpak ang entrada, 'hold' lang; garantisado naman itong tataas bandang Pasko at mga dalwang buwan bago magbukas ang Casino.

Gudlak!

Market Skim Through: August 06, Are they really bargains?

PSE index tumbled down -1.37%, but many are still thankful because it was nearing -2.0% earlier in the day. PSEi is going deeper below its short-term moving averages, so chartists indeed exited in the morning. But many funds clicked buy in the afternoon, which also brought the volume to a decent 5.95 volume. Foreigners were net sellers mostly because they continue to unload Sy stocks, but these funds also bought some index issues like MEG, which recovered to positive.

#	Stock Code	Last	Change	%Change	Value
1	PORT	9.6000	-3.8600	-28.68%	960
2	SPC	4.8000	-0.5000	-9.43%	48,000
3	CSB	11.5400	-0.9600	-7.68%	463,056
4	SEVN	130.0000	-9.0000	-6.47%	358,110
5	PRIM	1.6100	-0.1100	-6.40%	54,950
6	CDC	1.0500	-0.0700	-6.25%	32,710
7	FFI	14.8200	-0.9200	-5.84%	8,836
8	EG	0.0170	-0.0010	-5.56%	23,900
9	ARA	1.3200	-0.0700	-5.04%	342,800
10	LIB	2.0000	-0.1000	-4.76%	734,000
11	OPMB	0.0200	-0.0010	-4.76%	2,100
12	T	2.1000	-0.1000	-4.55%	21,000
13	MAKE	27.5500	-1.2500	-4.34%	5,510
14	AP	32.0500	-1.4000	-4.19%	51,093,170
15	MWC	31.1500	-1.3000	-4.01%	71,176,810
16	SOC	1.0300	-0.0400	-3.74%	431,990
17	HI	7.2400	-0.2600	-3.47%	5,749,837
18	RCB	50.2500	-1.8000	-3.46%	14,116,674
19	EEI	12.0000	-0.4200	-3.38%	13,051,840
20	FGENG	111.6000	-3.7000	-3.21%	11,160

AP and MWC are in the list of worst performers, because of separate news items. AP, because supposed to be power will be the first to get hit by impending rising interest rates. The company's latest earnings report is also not too good compared to last year because of forex losses. MWC, on the other hand, is still threatened by a possible new policy of disallowing them to pass on VAT to consumers. (Changing the rules in the middle of the game = always bad for business).

Albeit the perceived low prices... Cash is still my pick of the week. However it is still useful to ruminate on these:

Sy Stocks are battered. What among BDO, BEL, SMPH, SM, SMDC are now bargains? BEL has potential I think as we near December. Gaming stocks should jump very high as it nears the opening of a new casino. BDO is a bargain at 10 p/e. The rest must find their bottom.

MPI, although it entered my previously declared price entry range,  I wasnt able to get in at 4.93 this morning (conflict with a meeting). Might have another chance within the week?

I added a tranche of MBT at 103.5; thankfully it rose to 105 + in the afternoon. This stock might be a good opportunity to profitably range trade again. Im keeping my substantial position. I also reentered BDO after cutting a small loss yesterday. The bank also recovered decently today, already showing me a bit of profit. But all these are gambles, mind ya.

There's a fighting chance that our market will be green tomorrow. JFC piled on good, confident numbers (and a relatively high divs announcement at that!) to encourage our PSE to show some life. Could be the needed antidote to what SM prompted.

Depending on you appetite for risk, you may get in or not. If you decide to get in, I cant over-emphasize the better-for-risk move of buying in tranches. Do not go all-in. Buy staggered.

If you decide to be on the sidelines, youre aligned with an experienced group of Ghost Month believers. (the month officially starts tomorrow and ends September 4). But would not hurt to be on the lookout for strong companies that are perhaps being sold-off by locals but becoming interesting for foreign brokers.

Good luck!