Pick of the week for Wk 16 is to accumulate your favorites; give a special eye on banks

I was about to post yesterday LRI as the pick of the week because of the merger news, but because of an early morning meeting, I wasn't able to go online even to open brokerage and post a market opening buy (to add up early). LRI since flew away. Im selling current position--entered into months ago--in LRI at +20%..

I suggest you already position on other previously-good performing stocks. Check their upsurges during the bull run last year. These are my off-the-cuff suggestions:

--GTCAP still has a very probable +5% in short-term.

--then the banks BPI and MBT still have big room to increase, until before BSP announce an interest rate increase (you must watch out for news on this; we must exit some positions before they do the announcement and then just buy again below. bsp has no choice but to increase interest rates because the increase in inflation is also imminent at this time).

--BEL is a good stock to accumulate until Q4 when they open their casino and a surge will occur (if you wait that long, the price might already be too high). See the trend of BLOOM months before they opened Solaire in 2013.

--TA has room until it reaches another resistance at 2.18 - 2.23

But these are not strong recos at this point. I suggest you still look around. Look around on your own. Research. Check history, previous price movements of specific stocks, news, committed milestones. For power companies, for exampl, check when plants and increases in capacity are planned to happen.

For me--Im still maintaining a good cash position just in case AGI, MEG, SCC, or PGOLD temporarily goes on sale. I have already GTM buy points set for these stocks.

Pick of the week for Week 45 : TA TEL, and look out for buy-again points in GTCAP, SCC, MEG, AGI, JGS, and AEV

TA has good momentum currently and the sell volume is getting thinner and thinner since late last week after it surged up. Im heavy on TA; I was able to get back to my previous big position after I sold near half of holdings at its 2.8 peak months ago. Even though TA was not in my pick of the week list, I just bought tranches gradually when it was hovering at 2.1 - 2.2. This was done on faith given TA's growth potential, the management of the company, and its clear plans. Any one can read up on the plants and windmills under development, as well as Dean Viray's existing clout in the industry (including regulators). Lastly, Ive never lost yet a trade in TA and it gave me consistent hefty profits since to start of the year, so to support the stock's price at 2.1 can be sheer returning debt of gratitude (utang na loob) on my part :-) Further, Im still expecting gains on the property divs for Trans-asia Petroleum.

I was not expecting TEL to go back to below 2900, more so to go back insider its previous strong support at 2800-2830 range. This is always a safe stock to accumulate given its dividend yield. Furthermore, its current P/E is 15.8 while GLO is already at 21. I think the market is mis-pricing TEL and we should take advantage of the opportunity handed to us. Im ready to just add and add tranches even if TEL goes down to 2500. After adding earlier today, I now hold 5 tranches of TEL in my two ports (two brokers) combined.

Both TA and TEL I believe should gain +10% within this month, but I'll be starting to sell at +8% vs. their current price, considering that we are still not in a confirmed overall uptrend.

One should also keep an eye on stocks that may offer good reentry points within the week. MEG I think is a buy-again/add at 3.69, AGI at 25.30, JGS at 41.50, and AEV at 49. I have already set GTM buys myself at these levels. Part of the wishlist is also for solid favorites (but not holding currently) GTCAP to go back to 803 and SCC to 240ish before we enter 2014, but these could be far fetched.

Update on pick of the week for Wk 32

Although it may just be random walk in the end, it is still better to study ahead, plan, and follow that plan.

Would like to write for posterity my own progress from when I posted my plan from last Monday. 

"MPI is also worth watching and betting small bets in if it flirts with 4.93 - 4.96 again." 

I entered MPI at 4.9 and 4.85, and sold all at 5.08 (posted yesterday, triggered today) for a good 4-digit gain. Not bad for 2 day's 'work.' Although, this stock might continue to go up (I should have stuck to my original sell post at 5.14), it's always good to profit in a market that is not in a clear uptrend.

"I was about to choose a pick of the week from SCC, MER, MBT, and MEG, betting that at least one will make a substantial bounce in the coming days,"

I bought MEG last week and sold early at 3.23 this week for a small coffee-budget gain, but MEG continued to go up to 3.26. Added MBT at a low 102.5 and then it recovered and now trading sideways at 106-107. Both are good moves, bottom-line.

Did not do anything with SCC and just retained my holdings in MER (although I should have added). SCC increased marginally and MER increased considerably. So all four 'pick candidates" practically did well.

My mistake was entering AEV at 46.1. This was not in the list but I thought that the conglomerate is too cheap at current price, regardless of the unimpressive  earnings report. Although price today is at 47, this will gap down on Monday. I'll closely observe AEV if I need to cut loss or cut at breakeven (damage is brokers fee). Either way no regrets, a bet's a bet. Do not enter in a market that is not in a confirmed uptrend if you want to have all your moves come out right (with greater probability).

In the end, Cash, as recommended, proved to be the safest and rightest bet. There's still a dangerous number of previous-favorites-but-now-diving-down this week. Also, imagine if one veered to a Sy stock , he/she could have lost more than 5% in a couple of days. It just happened that we intended to devote time on the market, and it's good to make picks (stocks that you studied ahead for a good entry price) and place small bets since we're focused any way. Let's just remember to continue to keep a big cash position, during a non-uptrend-market and in a ghost month at that!

Watch out also for news and updates about FED stimulus in the coming week.

Pick of the Week for Week 32: Cash; Watch on the sidelines with focus on AGI and MPI

The proverbial Ghost month has probably started; it's not worth the risk to fight it. The volume today is thin, and it might be smaller moving forward making it less ideal even for range trading. This was profitable to us in the past few weeks, but would be more risky this month. The best option is to hold on to cash in the next two weeks, and watch on the sidelines.

I was about to choose a pick of the week from SCC, MER, MBT, and MEG, betting that at least one will make a substantial bounce in the coming days, but the current swings and waves of volatility combined with the small volume trading are not ideal to dive in to... unless you have time to be fully focused on the price movement. In this case, and indeed if you itch to participate still, then make small bets on any of the four or those that you perceive as bargains  and have reached bottom (Sy stocks BEL, SMPH, SMDC, SM have dived big and should be studied).

But if a downtrend is continues, it might be more profitable to reserve your cash, so we can get the likes of AGI when it reaches very attractive  price levels at 22 - 23 range. This stock is one of the most resilient this year, a clear favorite even of foreign funds (Ive attended a Bloomberg seminar recommending it as a better-diversified conglomerate with big room for growth). Also, AGI should be announcing dividends soon.

MPI is also worth watching and betting small bets in if it flirts with 4.93 - 4.96 again. Mentioned in a previous post why MPI is solid as a conglomerate. The recent addition to the Morgan Stanley index also should also have some bearing. Some big funds are still intact and should protect the stock strongly at 4.9.

I have entered small bets last week  on AC, ALI, MEG, BDO; have cut all of them, while the negatives are small.

I have substantial positions on MBT and MER from averaging down, will probably keep all even if loss reaches -8%, due to the "margin of safety" offered by upcoming dividends.

Lookout Monday (Hope it's not a Panic Monday)

I make my stock pick on a Monday to get a feel first of the week's atmosphere, but this is not foolproof and only semi-rationale. Any news that comes out within the week can trounce any trend.

For tomorrow though, it's important to note that our index breached below several short-term moving averages. Another close-to-2% negative will make a Panic Monday. TA believers (Chartists) will unload big automatically.

We should hope that the big red candle last Friday was just temporary over-reaction over SM's private offering. It was not an opportune time to do top-up offering last week (SM should have waited when we're on a clear uptrend again), but we dont know when they need the money for upcoming projects, so we have to let that be.

MEG, MPI, SCC, FLI, MBT, TEL, and MER will be the stocks on the first page of my Watchlist, with the objective entirely just for range trading. The downtrend last week firmed-up my strategy not to hold issues for long, and not to aim for gains in double digits. Minders:

1) Hold 4 weeks tops.
2) +8% gain is heaven already, +5% realistic. Set sell price, immediately after buying.
3) Think of cutting losses at -8% as a general rule, but
4) but consider averaging down on
a) fundamentally very sound companies
b) leaders in their industry
c) <10 P/E price
d) high-dividend paying companies (consider the dividend yield as margin of safety)
(at least 3 of the four must be met before averaging down).

6) Still treat with suspicion companies that appear to breakout of resistance. Until the uptrend for the general market is very clear, it can go down -3% the following day.

This should be the guideposts until Moody's releases their report.

Other notes for the beginning of the week:

• TEL and ALPHA are involved in this important news. Tsupiteros will scramble over ALPHA, but remember that insiders are already positioned days ago. Dont aim for too high a profit if you decide to join in.
• Some index issues are due to announce earnings for first half this coming week. It can inject some energy to these individual issues and our market. Buy at least a day before if you believe that the income report will be staggering or very rosy.
• Foreign buying and selling are swinging daily. On some individual issues, foreign funds even appear fighting with each other fiercely. Better to stick to analysing the per-week values instead? 
• If a big negative at higher volume strikes us in the morning, consider cutting losses together with the Technical Analysis (TA) believers. 

Let's go!

Market Skim Through--August 02, low volume Thursday, watch out for bargains Friday

Volume was low yesterday. Market was able to inch-up a gain in ending, performance of index components are widely varied. There are big foreign sells in MEG and MPI, which I think are not warranted fundamentally. This could be a 'dump fake,' as I mentioned in a previous blogpost that if local funds follow, my own move would be to grab that bargain... in tranches. MPI, a solid conglomerate with a clear growth plan, should be among the stocks to spike-up when Moody's releases its upgrade. I should start to accumulate below 5.10, but I might buy some already at 5.23.

(MVP is still one of the better Chairman/CEO in the country)

I have also re-positioned in ALI and AC yesterday as part of the bet that 1) these two will be among the first to jump  after Moody's report and 2) their prices today are good.

SCC is also a good stock to reenter for me. The company's growth path is clear and it is one of the most resilient during the downturn. A price below 239 is a trigger for me to reenter.

So it is going to be a watch-out for bargains in the next few days. Buy in tranches (do not go all in) and use the guide posts of range trading. Rules also serve as protection if, indeed, Ghost Month is starting to eke in.

Good luck!