Im writing for posterity that I recently earned an unexpected five figures from my one my almost-a-year-old holdings... GERI.
I profited here when it jumped from 2.2ish to 2.6 in a short time-span last year. I remember it since jumped up further to almost 3 after I sold it all. When it was going down from that peak to 2, I started buying in tranches, until I had to cut losses with half-of-original position remaining. But then, I stupidly continued to average down after Dr. Tan announced he bought at 2+. And then the market, GERI included continued to tumble down hard.
When I finally stopped buying at 1.35, the total lot of GERI the I had had an AEP down to 1.5ish, and then the loss still saddled down to double figures. I stopped buying some time October and sold some lots at double-digit loss to raise some cash. (I since recovered some of those losses somewhere else). I thought GERI can not jump up back to near-3 until its original owners (Fil-estate) stopped selling. Also the company itself is not showing profit worth of its valuation at present... it has a high P/E of 50 (even higher than JFC) and is not paying a single cent of dividend.
So, it was a big surprise that my GTM sell was hit at 1.96. (All of my old holdings have GTM sells since I have a day job and cant monitor the market all the time. This is also my way to be emotionless in trading. I feel the profit on each particular holding is right to me at those specific levels). GERI was among the one the I least expect to profit from this soon. Whatever is the follow-on or special offering rumor that jacked this up, Im thankful for it. Even if it tempts 3 PhP again, I wont have regrets. I also I wont come back to GERI until 1) Fil-Estate has unloaded half of remaining shares it is holding today, and 2) construction of its supposed vineyard at Tagaytay and township at Pasig have broken ground.
Thank you, GERI.
It's your turn now, ELI. Whatever happened to your "Olivia, will you marry me" campaign? Announce some divs, ELI.
Showing posts with label GERI. Show all posts
Showing posts with label GERI. Show all posts
Tuesday, March 18, 2014
Wednesday, July 31, 2013
Market Skim Through July 31, 2013: GERI, TA, MEG, are hit
Funds appear to continue to shed GERI. Will stay away from this stock for the next 30 days (save for a Moody's upgrade).
TA went down because of 1) ex-date and 2) disclosure that one of the drilling projects at Mindanao was scrapped due to safety issues. I was only able to dispose 20% of my position at high double-digit gain; I intend to hold now what remains. I feel no remorse for giving up a high 15-18% increase. TA and its stock will be fine. Gratifying in fact to see that volume is consistently high these days.
MEG is more a conundrum why it seems in a hurry to go down. I will add if it reaches 3.1 again, regardless of perceived trend.
| # | Stock Code | Last | Change | %Change | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MEGW1 | 2.1500 | -0.3500 | -14.00% | 23,770 |
| 2 | UNI | 0.1620 | -0.0230 | -12.43% | 82,720 |
| 3 | MVC | 1.8300 | -0.1700 | -8.50% | 1,830 |
| 4 | RLT | 0.4850 | -0.0450 | -8.49% | 423,050 |
| 5 | VITA | 0.7500 | -0.0600 | -7.41% | 363,690 |
| 6 | NIKL | 15.0000 | -1.1000 | -6.83% | 13,002,424 |
| 7 | TA | 2.5000 | -0.1600 | -6.02% | 100,521,120 |
| 8 | GERI | 1.6800 | -0.0900 | -5.08% | 15,067,650 |
| 9 | SPC | 5.3000 | -0.2800 | -5.02% | 35,040 |
| 10 | OPMB | 0.0200 | -0.0010 | -4.76% | 200,000 |
| 11 | AB | 20.0000 | -1.0000 | -4.76% | 20,000 |
| 12 | LC | 0.6100 | -0.0300 | -4.69% | 58,206,370 |
| 13 | DMPL | 27.5000 | -1.3500 | -4.68% | 13,875,245 |
| 14 | IRC | 1.2800 | -0.0600 | -4.48% | 6,449,120 |
| 15 | LCB | 0.6400 | -0.0300 | -4.48% | 9,343,170 |
| 16 | CMT | 1.0800 | -0.0500 | -4.42% | 929,990 |
| 17 | FLI | 1.7800 | -0.0800 | -4.30% | 25,100,540 |
| 18 | DAVIN | 1.1300 | -0.0500 | -4.24% | 2,983,610 |
| 19 | MEG | 3.2400 | -0.1400 | -4.14% | 281,274,300 |
| 20 | KPH | 4.8000 | -0.2000 | -4.00% | 48,000 |
Wednesday, July 24, 2013
Market Skim Through: July 24. GERI is active and green, AGI flexing true strength
Another green index today, jumping 0.9%, ending at above 6800.
GERI is a non-blue-chip and, judging from its terrible price movement the past few weeks, a prodigal daughter of AGI. But it interestingly came inside top 20 most active today, and with a big green candle at that. Top buyers are locals (Macquarie is a top buyer but a net seller nevertheless). Are local fund managers starting to take in GERI as part of the speculative bet in their portfolio? Most mutual funds and UITF are composed of 30 issues, and many managers include strong 2nd and 3rd liners in the pool. GERI could be a good bet, considering it is near oversold. While it suffered one of the steepest downturn in the past few weeks, it is still a promising company showing +30% increase in income, and one of the Andrew Tan's subsidiary earmarked for expansion as they set their sight, as disclosed, on riding the increasing tourism in the country.
The mothership, AGI, was the top most active and also the leader of the index issues. This one stock that did not suffer much during the sell-off is now the first one to return to its level when the index was at 7000+. There's indeed a theory along this line--that the issue that suffered least in a correction (or bucked the trend of a major correction) will also be the strongest when the market recovers. Ah, should have kept my considerable position that I sold last week at 25.8. But if AGI should continue strongly, MEG, ELI, and GERI should follow (I have positions in all 3).
COSCO was also remarkable today. When I see this type of jump, my stubble beard tells me Lucio Co is eyeing another venture. Will he really take over the local franchise of Wendy's?
SECB recovered at last, probably due to this positive news.
http://www.philstar.com/business/2013/07/24/1004831/asiamoney-names-security-bank-best-domestic-bank
But the higher-impact news, I would say is when they announce ex-date for their committed stock dividend. Anyway, my buys for average down yesterday and early today worked. I hope momentum will take price back to at least 170. If movement shows weakness, I intend to cut some position hopefully at above 155 at least. Hard to think that this used to be at 200 +, and chartists were saying its blue skies forward back then). SECB was also once a foreign fund favorite. Will locals take the baton and bring it back to 200?
Interesting high volume also for MER, MPI, TA, ICT, but all are dojis (no price change). Best to study these four further.
GERI is a non-blue-chip and, judging from its terrible price movement the past few weeks, a prodigal daughter of AGI. But it interestingly came inside top 20 most active today, and with a big green candle at that. Top buyers are locals (Macquarie is a top buyer but a net seller nevertheless). Are local fund managers starting to take in GERI as part of the speculative bet in their portfolio? Most mutual funds and UITF are composed of 30 issues, and many managers include strong 2nd and 3rd liners in the pool. GERI could be a good bet, considering it is near oversold. While it suffered one of the steepest downturn in the past few weeks, it is still a promising company showing +30% increase in income, and one of the Andrew Tan's subsidiary earmarked for expansion as they set their sight, as disclosed, on riding the increasing tourism in the country.
The mothership, AGI, was the top most active and also the leader of the index issues. This one stock that did not suffer much during the sell-off is now the first one to return to its level when the index was at 7000+. There's indeed a theory along this line--that the issue that suffered least in a correction (or bucked the trend of a major correction) will also be the strongest when the market recovers. Ah, should have kept my considerable position that I sold last week at 25.8. But if AGI should continue strongly, MEG, ELI, and GERI should follow (I have positions in all 3).
COSCO was also remarkable today. When I see this type of jump, my stubble beard tells me Lucio Co is eyeing another venture. Will he really take over the local franchise of Wendy's?
SECB recovered at last, probably due to this positive news.
http://www.philstar.com/business/2013/07/24/1004831/asiamoney-names-security-bank-best-domestic-bank
But the higher-impact news, I would say is when they announce ex-date for their committed stock dividend. Anyway, my buys for average down yesterday and early today worked. I hope momentum will take price back to at least 170. If movement shows weakness, I intend to cut some position hopefully at above 155 at least. Hard to think that this used to be at 200 +, and chartists were saying its blue skies forward back then). SECB was also once a foreign fund favorite. Will locals take the baton and bring it back to 200?
Interesting high volume also for MER, MPI, TA, ICT, but all are dojis (no price change). Best to study these four further.
Symbol
|
Last Price
|
Change
|
%Change
|
Volume
|
Value
| |
1
|
27
|
1
|
3.85%
|
26,246,900
|
707,547,245
| |
2
|
11.2
|
0.56
|
5.26%
|
47,936,600
|
530,377,276
| |
3
|
960
|
10
|
1.05%
|
460,290
|
441,229,990
| |
4
|
3,078.00
|
-22
|
-0.71%
|
124,345
|
383,749,800
| |
5
|
31.4
|
0.5
|
1.62%
|
12,109,300
|
379,110,815
| |
6
|
85.95
|
1
|
1.18%
|
4,236,930
|
364,132,088
| |
7
|
285
|
0
|
0.00%
|
1,197,140
|
341,469,506
| |
8
|
640
|
10
|
1.59%
|
526,130
|
335,826,685
| |
9
|
5.39
|
0
|
0.00%
|
61,503,700
|
331,239,782
| |
10
|
129
|
3.9
|
3.12%
|
2,504,120
|
322,688,635
| |
11
|
18.98
|
0.5
|
2.71%
|
16,404,500
|
307,572,916
| |
12
|
41
|
1.05
|
2.63%
|
7,148,200
|
288,164,145
| |
13
|
111
|
0.3
|
0.27%
|
1,705,100
|
189,654,185
| |
14
|
3.56
|
0.06
|
1.71%
|
52,834,000
|
187,211,500
| |
15
|
146
|
6.7
|
4.81%
|
907,420
|
130,376,847
| |
16
|
2.72
|
0
|
0.00%
|
45,263,000
|
124,454,470
| |
17
|
93
|
0
|
0.00%
|
1,281,930
|
119,354,863
| |
18
|
1.73
|
0.11
|
6.79%
|
67,536,000
|
112,207,640
| |
19
|
23.3
|
0.3
|
1.30%
|
4,470,500
|
104,013,750
| |
20
|
10.1
|
0.08
|
0.80%
|
10,310,400
|
103,897,796
|
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