Pick of the week for Wk5: stand by for hoped-for short term fall

I'll obviously be biased by my move the past few days. Again, I unloaded all of my DNL and BDO, substantial of MEG and TA, and some MBT, hoping these will 'cool-off' a bit before I reenter.

So the pick of the week is to observe these five to go lower by 25% of their recent increases. Most of them jumped by at ~15%, so I would like to see them go down by  3.75%-5% from their peaks or before  I enter again.

As usual, since we are not yet in a clear general uptrend (for the market overall), our entries will be in minimum tranches.

Market Skim Through: August 06, Are they really bargains?

PSE index tumbled down -1.37%, but many are still thankful because it was nearing -2.0% earlier in the day. PSEi is going deeper below its short-term moving averages, so chartists indeed exited in the morning. But many funds clicked buy in the afternoon, which also brought the volume to a decent 5.95 volume. Foreigners were net sellers mostly because they continue to unload Sy stocks, but these funds also bought some index issues like MEG, which recovered to positive.

#	Stock Code	Last	Change	%Change	Value
1	PORT	9.6000	-3.8600	-28.68%	960
2	SPC	4.8000	-0.5000	-9.43%	48,000
3	CSB	11.5400	-0.9600	-7.68%	463,056
4	SEVN	130.0000	-9.0000	-6.47%	358,110
5	PRIM	1.6100	-0.1100	-6.40%	54,950
6	CDC	1.0500	-0.0700	-6.25%	32,710
7	FFI	14.8200	-0.9200	-5.84%	8,836
8	EG	0.0170	-0.0010	-5.56%	23,900
9	ARA	1.3200	-0.0700	-5.04%	342,800
10	LIB	2.0000	-0.1000	-4.76%	734,000
11	OPMB	0.0200	-0.0010	-4.76%	2,100
12	T	2.1000	-0.1000	-4.55%	21,000
13	MAKE	27.5500	-1.2500	-4.34%	5,510
14	AP	32.0500	-1.4000	-4.19%	51,093,170
15	MWC	31.1500	-1.3000	-4.01%	71,176,810
16	SOC	1.0300	-0.0400	-3.74%	431,990
17	HI	7.2400	-0.2600	-3.47%	5,749,837
18	RCB	50.2500	-1.8000	-3.46%	14,116,674
19	EEI	12.0000	-0.4200	-3.38%	13,051,840
20	FGENG	111.6000	-3.7000	-3.21%	11,160

AP and MWC are in the list of worst performers, because of separate news items. AP, because supposed to be power will be the first to get hit by impending rising interest rates. The company's latest earnings report is also not too good compared to last year because of forex losses. MWC, on the other hand, is still threatened by a possible new policy of disallowing them to pass on VAT to consumers. (Changing the rules in the middle of the game = always bad for business).

Albeit the perceived low prices... Cash is still my pick of the week. However it is still useful to ruminate on these:

Sy Stocks are battered. What among BDO, BEL, SMPH, SM, SMDC are now bargains? BEL has potential I think as we near December. Gaming stocks should jump very high as it nears the opening of a new casino. BDO is a bargain at 10 p/e. The rest must find their bottom.

MPI, although it entered my previously declared price entry range,  I wasnt able to get in at 4.93 this morning (conflict with a meeting). Might have another chance within the week?

I added a tranche of MBT at 103.5; thankfully it rose to 105 + in the afternoon. This stock might be a good opportunity to profitably range trade again. Im keeping my substantial position. I also reentered BDO after cutting a small loss yesterday. The bank also recovered decently today, already showing me a bit of profit. But all these are gambles, mind ya.

There's a fighting chance that our market will be green tomorrow. JFC piled on good, confident numbers (and a relatively high divs announcement at that!) to encourage our PSE to show some life. Could be the needed antidote to what SM prompted.

Depending on you appetite for risk, you may get in or not. If you decide to get in, I cant over-emphasize the better-for-risk move of buying in tranches. Do not go all-in. Buy staggered.

If you decide to be on the sidelines, youre aligned with an experienced group of Ghost Month believers. (the month officially starts tomorrow and ends September 4). But would not hurt to be on the lookout for strong companies that are perhaps being sold-off by locals but becoming interesting for foreign brokers.

Good luck!

Pick (s) of the week for wK31 are banks

Pinoy stock picker is currently travelling in and around China, but he is checking in to throw in my pick of the week... actually picks of the week.

The banks ought to bounce this week, and should be good for range traders.

BDO is a good to place tranches in. It is forming a triangle. I placed my own trigger-adds in BDO (at 82) According to (just) me, price will easily reach 86.5 in 7 days; Im setting my autosell at that price good until Tuesday next week. My cutloss will be at 78.

And of course, MBT, is a buy (or add) at 107, 106, 105... until 100. I also placed trigger-add MBT at 107 last night. BDO and MBT have attractive 11 - 10 P/E at these price points. Some would call them outright bargains, especially, since BDO bragged an impressive profit disclosure again yesterday. My trigger sell for MBT is 116.5. Will adjust to 130 if Moody's releases the upgrade in near term.

BPI is still the most expensive bank, best to observe closely or place bets according to your experience with the price movement of this bank in the past, how well you like it, and how long you youre willing to stay if a correction starts again. I think at least a money-back proposition within one month is reasonable to expect with BPI. This also takes into account a possible Moody's announcement within one month.  

If I have constant internet connection, I would also monitor the price action of UBP and SECB, and decide  whether to place a bit or just concentrate on the big 3.

Good luck to us.

On Banks During Week 30

No, not Tyra, but

BDO
BPI
CHIB
EW
MBT
PNB
RCB
SECB
UBP
AUB
PBB

Our modestly-sized stock market seems to be starting on the uptrend but these stocks appear either just flat, range trading, or in the case of SECB, continuing to go down. They are also relatively cheap in terms of P/E and general expectation, considering that it's well known that banks rake in after investment rating upgrades and all. Nobody would have thought BPI would go back to 92; and who would have predicted two months ago that MBT will be back ranging between 105 - 115?

The short-term concern supposed to be is that these banks have lost a lot during the recent PSE bloodbath and that their Q1 earnings might have been erased by the severe, hurtful market forces of last June. I wont pretend to be an expert attempting to valuate the perceived trading loss vs. their other business and revenue stream (loans, fees, remittances) to validate if the claim is true.  I would just say that the fund managers must be carefully assessing the exposure of each firm (theyre not too many after all) in bonds and equities, and making their moves based a carefully wrought-out reports. Is SECB, for example, the most exposed in their analysis, so theyre continuing to sell it? If youre a short-term trader, best to be safe, listen to what these fundies are sounding-off with their moves, and stay on the sidelines.

But if

1) you are a medium-term trader and is known to wait out result of a gamble in 3 months
2) you believe that Moody's will make its long overdue upgrade this quarter (theyre a damn pompous, self-important, prissy agency if they dont upgrade us in Q3)
3) you are foreseeing that the stock market will go back to 7000 levels in one month...

I would say cheap is cheap.

Choose your pet bank, and place small bets now!

I have averaged down on SECB (I see their branches sprouting out all over metro and think the  20% dividend ex-date will get this stock re-energized on to its upward track, at least on medium term),
Im retaining my BPI core and watching closely if I need to average down further here,
MBT is my pick for week 30.
I would also buy BDO again if it goes below 83.
and closely watching UBP (their CEO is a stalwart of investment banking)

Good luck to us!