Picks of the week for WK12 is to HOLD the AGI and MWC that you've bought, and then TEL. at 2602

AGI could have fuel until 29 to 31. I'll probably sell all at 29 and some cents

MWC seems changing and consolidating hands in preparation for a move upwards. Although not that convincing.

If I have to choose between the two, only AGI's move up is probable. Foreign buying in AGI was solid and with conviction the past few days.

GMA7-- might need to cut loss at 6.5.

I also placed a buy in TEL at 2602. This is one of the stocks Im eager to go back to again and again and again. And it's lucky for our trading style that it moves in a channel rather than leaves you after you sell. Whatever happens, I'll start accumulating again from that price point (may be even at 2700). Remember--TEL gives divs, big enough to give you gain even if its price rests lower for longer vs. your entry point.

About PSEi threatening 7400 (two weeks ago), TEL, and unsureness

I've sold my last holding that was showing double-digit gain two weeks ago. Ive been able to harvest that one big winner, TEL, because Ive been holding and averaging down on it even when the issue dipped down to 2600 levels last year.

I began selling when it threatened 3K earlier this year, when I thought it will hit a big resistance. I continued to sell in tranches until just a portion remained. Of course, if I had insider info that TEL will benefit an MSCI rebalancing, I would have held all and then sold in one chunk instead. But I dont have that foresight, and I was comfortable with the +5%, +8%, +10%, then +17% (for the last tranche) profit even if it goes up further from hereon.

Another reason that reinforced my decision to sell is the impression that too few (to me) stocks are taking the index up. It was noticeable that a only a few highly-weighted issues are taking our index higher. Unlike the surge last year when almost overwhelming number of issues were hitting 52-week highs left and right (even second liners like ELI and ROCK were being bought up to record highs early last year), the index increase today could just be funds training their guns on less-than-10 specific stocks.

This should bring unsure-ness, but if you have faith in fundamentally-sound stocks that are stil showing strength (like SECB), there might be another +17% around the corner to enjoy.

Technical Analysis and Multiple Trendlines

As most of the readers of this blog knows, Im not fully into Technical Analysis. I like more 

1) the news (especially if my current disposition is that of a short-term to intermediate trader)

2) balance sheet and p&l statement, 

3) the caliber of the CEO and other executives of the company, 

4) the current price of the stock compared to its growth potential, 

5) and the inherent growth story of the firm 

to speak for themselves. 

I also try to make myself aware of foreign buying. 

But TA believers would say that the chart should be able to reflect all these. Meaning the sentiment on fundamental and management should all be in the chart. I dont agree. 

Within the chartists sphere, these have some weight on my buying or selling moves:

--the cup and handle patterns is based on a solid psychological nature of humans, so Im on the lookout for this pattern always. 

--simple moving averages at 50 (for short term) and exponential moving average at 150 or 200 (for intermediate). I also watch these because many chartists are supposed to buy (or sell) in droves when these are broken. We of course want to ride with them, and hopefully pluck some short-term profit. 

--RSI is okay as a guide if the increase or decrease is fairly gradual. A jerky increase up and down are more news or hype-based; RSI is invalidated in these cases. 

--spikes in volume are also very meaningful. 

--psychological supports and resistances (especially if the number converges with a moving average) also appear valid, especially on large-volume traded stocks 

--if i know i will have time to monitor short-term trading (where, win-or-lose, I intend to sell back the same position that I bought in  to 3 weeks), I also check candlesticks.  

One TA area that appears iffy to me is the turf of trendlines. 

A famous chartist getting paid for his analysis (selling subscription) was spouting last year that our index will reach 8500, solely because of the black, purple, and moss green trendlines that are supposed to be pointing upward of 8000. Those to me seem arbitrary, especially since the P/E of our index was already a very expensive 20+.

And then beginning on the sell-down last June, an infinite number of triangles and lines can be formed, almost at leisure. Could trendlines be nothing more than pastime for investors, as kids enjoy drawing sketches and figures on their play time?  

In any case the most optimist among us should be happy that chartists should be joining the buying today since there appears to be an upward channel that formed early this year (see the two short parallel lines on the far right of the chart below). 

Speaking if channels, TEL is supposed to be on an upward channel Oct 2012 to near July, but it was turned into a 'confirmed' downward channel since June 2013 to February 2014. But an upward channel can also be simultaneously from last November 2013 to present. So even with channels, there are multiple readings possible. 

Anyway, there's no use becoming snobbish of methods. I would agree that the best compromise is to choose a 'pet' based on present value and fundamentals (or 1 to 5 above), and then use TA to decide on the moment when to bet high. In short, choose a company that you will trust and then read some chicken intestines to reinforce the decision when to make big bets or... cut loss for that matter. 

Pick of the Week updates

I'll make it a practice to review my picks 4 weeks back always, since Ive made it a point since Q4 last year to stay with my picks normally at a month's horizon.

It's nearing harvest time for the picks of the weeks.
--in wk8 (GTCAP)... Im at 5% now, will be considering to sell at 8% tops.
--wks 9 and 10 (TEL)... on top of the hefty dividends in PLDT, we might get some cherry on top, probably +3% in the coming few days.
--wk 7's MBT, where I profited already (with MEG) substantially, I still have some position remaining in my nimbler port at +4%. We'll probably sell all at +5%. (My bigger port still has substantial MBT, remnants of last year, at -2%).
--Wk 11, the dividend-paying-company-nearing-exdate-announcement that I chose is MER. It is showing +1.97% for me today, but I placed only a small bet. I'll sell at +4 or 5%.

These target sell prices are based on the premise that PSEI will correct again once it reached 6650. As most retail investors, Im hoping that the PSEi will have momentum until 6800 in a few days; after all, it's rare to see a net foreign selling day since beginning Feb. But Im already willing to take some profit at 6600-6700.

Good luck with the possible jump up in the next few days.

Pick of the Week for Wk 9 is TEL

(I still remember the 3 pesos for 3 minutes call in your nearest sari-sari stores)

Nothing in the PSE is for certain. There's one guru in the famous forum which during Q3 last year, every time when he said that a stock will increase for sure, the following day it came tumbling down. It might be him who was pushing it down (He was recommending, then selling on rally).

I have a substantial position in TEL that was accumulated since last year, but I do not intend to recommend and dump bluntly. This bet was done based on it high-dividend policy of PLDT as a telecom, and this div's expected announcement early March. Im relying on the same high div amount (special+regular) and the ex-date sched to make it probable for this stock to give me at least a 5-8% surge within the next 3 weeks.

If you bet now, youll be at my same entry price. I made most of these bets earlier this year, thinking that the wily short-term investors will start accumulating January. It didnt happen almost three months forward. If still nothing happens even after Divs announcement, there must be something wrong with the company... which, in turn, is improbable. If you relate it to your home needs, PLDT is still the most reliable broadband provider compared to the baloneys that sky and glo offer. And then on a bigger macro picture, call centers must be depending on TEL a lot currently and in the future.

posted this new handset to illustrate the advance in technology, but I think this particular set is gimmicky as most others--like celebrity-texting eklat--launched by SMART. Well you can not make all your mktg managers topnotch.  

TEL is on a slow crawl up compared to its other fundamentally-ok index peers. But we have also observed some foreign accumulation recently. I wouldn't speculate any more if these funds are for long term this time around, suffice it to say that I wont start dispose until I get to +5-8% profit range.

Pick of the week for Wk 49: TEL

If you've already sold and took the gains from MBT, the safest thing to do is stay with cash and wait for an uptrend indicator (check moving averages) before getting in.

The next safest move is to wait for good buy prices on MEG and other 'reliable' favorites. (Remember: they are "reliable" because the company is fundamentally sound).

But if you are really eager to enter some position, buy TEL.

It's current forward P/E is just 15, significantly below 18 P/E of PSE index. The past 12 months, it was unusual for TEL to have market valuation below index. Also, its only competitor GLO is already trading at 21.5 P/E. Either TEL will catch up in short term or it will be the among the first stock to jump up the moment we are on a general uptrend. (Probability-wise, an uptrend must happen within the year or there is really another debilitating bad news for our country).

On top of these positive factors, as mentioned before, TEL is paying out 4-6% dividend annually. Above any time deposit rate from any bank. This offers margin of safety, even if your disposition is a trader rather than an investor.

Pick of the week for Week 45 : TA TEL, and look out for buy-again points in GTCAP, SCC, MEG, AGI, JGS, and AEV

TA has good momentum currently and the sell volume is getting thinner and thinner since late last week after it surged up. Im heavy on TA; I was able to get back to my previous big position after I sold near half of holdings at its 2.8 peak months ago. Even though TA was not in my pick of the week list, I just bought tranches gradually when it was hovering at 2.1 - 2.2. This was done on faith given TA's growth potential, the management of the company, and its clear plans. Any one can read up on the plants and windmills under development, as well as Dean Viray's existing clout in the industry (including regulators). Lastly, Ive never lost yet a trade in TA and it gave me consistent hefty profits since to start of the year, so to support the stock's price at 2.1 can be sheer returning debt of gratitude (utang na loob) on my part :-) Further, Im still expecting gains on the property divs for Trans-asia Petroleum.

I was not expecting TEL to go back to below 2900, more so to go back insider its previous strong support at 2800-2830 range. This is always a safe stock to accumulate given its dividend yield. Furthermore, its current P/E is 15.8 while GLO is already at 21. I think the market is mis-pricing TEL and we should take advantage of the opportunity handed to us. Im ready to just add and add tranches even if TEL goes down to 2500. After adding earlier today, I now hold 5 tranches of TEL in my two ports (two brokers) combined.

Both TA and TEL I believe should gain +10% within this month, but I'll be starting to sell at +8% vs. their current price, considering that we are still not in a confirmed overall uptrend.

One should also keep an eye on stocks that may offer good reentry points within the week. MEG I think is a buy-again/add at 3.69, AGI at 25.30, JGS at 41.50, and AEV at 49. I have already set GTM buys myself at these levels. Part of the wishlist is also for solid favorites (but not holding currently) GTCAP to go back to 803 and SCC to 240ish before we enter 2014, but these could be far fetched.

Late Pick of the Week: Look for higher lows in JGS, MBT, MEG, but if you're eager to position now, choose TEL

I knew I have time to monitor the market this week; there is valuable time to spend to hunt for short terms gains, so I disposed some green in MBT, MEG, AGI, and AEV to raise cash. I expect that sentiments of some locals will be to dispose at our current 6600 levels. Some of our countrymen who were jittered before are probably exiting at near breakeven, so it's time to dispose some green and wait for them to dip again by at least 3%--better at minus 5%--to re-take similar position size.

For example, I disposed a huge chunk of MEG at 3.91, the moment that I saw that 1) the stock is already oversold, and 2) it's too weak to even break 3.95. And so, 3.91 less 5% is 3.71. Im waiting since then to enter some at 3.71, add another position at 3.70, and then a huge buy position at 3.68. I still haven't been blessed with shares at these levels, but am waiting. If MEG continued strongly at this very high RSI. I still have 20% of my original position. I just have to live with my bet that it's more probable for MEG to cool off a bit and be below oversold levels.  

Same applies with AEV, AGI, and MBT... I disposed all or huge chunks of these stocks, and now Im waiting for their higher lows to materialize before getting in again (first reentry at -3%, ideal at -5%).

But since I wanted to take some new positions and not be holding too much cash, I took positions in TEL and DMPL as well. I think TEL is undervalued at this time, and will perform some +5% in short term. Why? 

1) its forward P/E is 16, while its only competitor GLO is trading at 23 - 30 P/E. I know that the Ayala's enjoy some premium over competitors because of their perceived better managers, but that disprity is just too much. 

2) the BPO industry is experiencing tremendous growth and TEL should be one of the main beneficiaries  

3) PLDT's DSL is way faster than those stupid Tattoos and mobile broadband scams.
4) If youre caught ipit even at -10%, there's still some margin of safety. TEL always pay hefty divs to make up for it.

DMPL I placed a small position in because 1) its current price is below its current at SGX, 2) I feel that the market hasnt fully taken in the impact of the acquisition of the US Del Monte business. This makes for some good reading regarding DMPL:

http://research.maybank-ib.com/pdf/document/Del_Monte_141013c_5174.pdf

Besides that, Christmas is nearing. We're approaching that time for Buko and Fruit Salads. That would have some Del Monte Fruit Cocktails by default.

Again, these picks of the week have time frame of at least four weeks. It's time to revise your portfolios for intermediate and long term and prepare for the surge until March.

Market Skim Through and Midweek Assessment: Another gain, adjusting sell points

 Index gained 120 +points, or +2%, to close at above 6200. We're green on the fifth straight day (although the first 3 days yielded only small increases).Volume was again a respectable 9.22 B. And most important: Foreigners were net buyers at Php1.56 billion.

	Stock Code	Last	Change	%Change	Value
1	VITA	0.8200	0.1200	17.14%	1,304,090
2	IMI	2.2900	0.3000	15.08%	2,543,610
3	RPL	16.9000	1.9000	12.67%	85,640
4	ATI	12.0000	1.1000	10.09%	42,000
5	BLOOM	11.8800	0.8800	8.00%	198,293,778
6	EVER	0.2500	0.0180	7.76%	373,200
7	EG	0.0160	0.0010	6.67%	49,600
8	PA	0.0350	0.0020	6.06%	6,400
9	OPM	0.0190	0.0010	5.56%	90,800
10	ALI	26.7000	1.4000	5.53%	730,105,940
11	WEB	12.0000	0.6000	5.26%	54,995,934
12	VMC	1.7000	0.0800	4.94%	354,530
13	CLOUD	6.5000	0.3000	4.84%	650
14	FLI	1.5200	0.0700	4.83%	103,712,780
15	EDC	5.7000	0.2600	4.78%	88,401,522
16	MFC	690.0000	29.5000	4.47%	199,390
17	DNL	6.6000	0.2800	4.43%	19,660,775
18	BEL	4.7000	0.1800	3.98%	25,081,260
19	AC	574.0000	21.5000	3.89%	263,228,045
20	AEV	48.0000	1.7500	3.78%	220,973,800

Among all the gains, I liked the increases in AEV and AC, where I averaged down heavily in in my main port. Im now almost green in these two, although we're not even close to returning to 7 K, or even 6800--which local pundits is now setting as the yearend target. This is  far below 8000, 8500, or the moooonn as others were saying last June. But any way, I plan to sell portions of these two before the week ends as hedge to another news on QE tapering that may hit us next week. 

One of my sell price points in TEL was hit at 2904 in the first trade of that issue, for a 5% gain. This is my fifth time gaining from range-trading TEL since the downtrend, and I still have one position left.

I entered one tranche in VLL, which increased 3+% immediately after, but was reduced to a measly +.9% at closing. I might add another tranche first thing tomorrow. The Villars announced divs and the assumption of Manny Villar as Chairman. More on VLL on another post. 

EDC also announced respectable cash divs. This one plus the one they paid in March makes EDC a +3% yielding issue.  Not bad, but would be better if it goes back to to at least 6.5+. It is -1% in one year, and -30% year-to-date, -60%+ from 52-week high, clearly one of the worst performing index stock. Can it recover soon? 

Pasawsaw-sawsaw moves lang dapat, mga katoto,

... at itabi agad ang kita. Wag magpapatagal sa baso, 'ika nga sa mga inuman. Magsubi agad ng kita. At kitilin ang pagkatalo kapag masama ang takbo ng presyuhan, o pagkatapos ng average down, e nanghihina na ang ganansya pataas.

Bagamat tinamaan din ako ng kulog ng bagyong pagbagsak kanina, gasino lang ang isinadsad ni ABS,  BEL, at MBT ko. Malakas-lakas pa rin, at nakatabi na ang kita mula sa CPG, TEL, et al. Hindi talaga ako nagtodo dahil kahit papaano, sinusunod ko ang CANSLIM ni O'Neill. Wag na wag daw sasabak nang todo kapag walang 'confirmed uptrend.'

Subalit mukhang nakakatakam na ang presyo ng ilang stocks, kasama na ng grupong Esem. Hhhhmn... baka makataya nang bahagya kahit isa lang kay SM o SMPH.

At dagdag pa diyan, sa ganang akin, marami-rami yata ang araw na lang ang bibilangin e cut-off na ng dibendo-taym. Ayon sa websayt ng PSE, ang mga ito ay malapit na malapit na magpamudmod ng ekstrang kita.

GLO (galante)
TEL (galante)
SGI (pwede na)
MBT (galante)
JFC (galante, lalo't kapag kinumpara sa mga dating ibinibiyaya ni Jollibee)

Ang GTCAP ay nalalapit na rin subalit kuripot ang ibibigay

Kailangan ding obserbahan ang mga ito. Kapag konting pumayapa ang palitan (yung hindi sobrang likot na parang kiti-kiti sa taas-baba ang presyuhan), kailangang tumaya na.

Kumbaga, nagkakaroon ng konting bentahe halimbawa ang TEL, maski bumaksak muli nang 5% pagkataya mo. Maluwag pa rin sa loob na magdagdag sa ibaba dahil may ilang porsyentong elbow room na ibibigay ang dibidendo. Mas kayang magtiis ng sakit kapag may dibidendong siguradong parating.

Kailangang makapagbukas ng online trading bukas, bandang alas diyes y medya, upang makataya sa isa man lang sa mga ito.

Sugod!

Update on pick of the week for Wk 35

So we're hit with that dreaded news. 

I mentioned that one news that can bring us down hard is "Bernanke saying that QE tapering will start pronto."

The FED meeting minutes is not saying that QE tapering will start pronto, but investors are reacting like it will...or more specifically, consensus now is "by September." 

So short term, we'll have to bear this hit. 

And we have to revise our picks to favor high-dividend paying securities that are now bargains today. Convert to cash and monitor TEL, GLO, and the bunch. If the prices start to become stable, bet!

Like months ago, my entry (starting) price in TEL is 2830, average down until 2700. For GLO, 1400.

But best to skim through, research, check previous charts, and evident supports, and choose also 'bargain pets' on your own.

Game on!

Range-trading during a period of uncertainty

As Im writing this, PSE index is only 4 points away from 6800. Many 'investors' that were left holding the bag at above-7000, those shell-shocked by the sell-down of foreign funds last month, are starting to smile again. Im partially one of those investors. I chose not to cut loss, or I did not cut clean on most positions, and was only able to 'save' about 20% of my cash. That obviously was a bad move.

But I elected to pool a smaller fund, open another account in another online broker (to sort of start in a clean slate), still trade actively during the uncertainty, and focus on a few securities only, with two criteria: no bazurs (no BHI, no CAL, no TSI, however hyped they are in forums) and no lightly-traded security (no ANS, no SGI).

I profited a good +6.3% (of capital) taking advantage of predicted range trend in MBT, GLO, TEL, DNL, SCC, and VLL and partially (small one-time impacts) in ABS, BDO, ALI.  For example, I was able to go back and trade TEL four times, in the span of 4 weeks. I bought in tranches at 2830 and prices below and then immediately sold whatever I accumulated at 2930ish--no questions asked.

I would like to think that Im an expert with these moves that are suitable in an environment of volatility, but in truth, as most transactions in the stock market, these are all just bets. There were some rational bases, but luck (more like winds going in your favor) still is the bigger factor.

Nevertheless, if you ask for the bases and rules that I used, . Here they are:
1) took on faith that TEL and others are solid companies that is undeservedly cheap at their prices at that time, especially because there's the backdrop of an unusual, severe sell-off. For TEL, below 2830 was my set price. MBT and AEV at one time went below 10 P/E. And the circumstances (caused by merciless sell-off) were abnormal; these should not be their prices as normalcy returns.
2) forecasted that big bulls and bears are going to fight during that time of uncertainty, so small-time investors can benefit from their tussle.
3) when you observe even the daily trade, volatility was apparent. you can place a bid on the perceived lowest before price jumps again and then return to same number (some call these levels true 'strong' supports) in these daily trades and aim to exit in 3 days.
4) for GLO and TEL, I also relied on the fact that these are high-dividend paying securities, and that this fact would also be in the mind of players foreign or locals alike. Remember that if dividend yield of a stock is 4% of its price, you can be comfortable easily a loss < 4%. We know that GLO, TEL, SCC, Aboitiz stocks, MER, are generous in giving out dividends.
5) also held on to our recent gdp announcement --  +7.8%. You dont see that gdp number brandished every day at any part of the world!
6) also disciplined myself to be at least 30% on cash at any given trading day. At one point, after a previously-set sell points on two big positions were hit while I was on a beach, I was only 26.66% invested.
7) buy in tranches, ready to average down if needed. If your revolving capital is 1 M PhP, buy in amounts of 20 K - 30 K PhP. If 500 K PhP, buy in 10 K - 20 K PhP tranches. This is also optimum to avoid inefficient transaction fees.
8) lastly, again... no bazurs , no lightly-traded stocks.

So there, the reasons for my big gains in just 5 weeks.

But, as a caveat, there were downsides and mistakes:
> VLL, TEL, DNL, GLO, have now increased significantly since I last unloaded them, so there are still that couldve-been shouldve-been imperfect calls, bottomline. No remorse from my side, but trend traders would surely fault my method for not taking full advantage of the trend.
> I also made a mistake in buying and averaging-down on GMA7. The media stalwart aligns with #1 and #4 conditions,  but not #8, GMA7 is a non-bazur but it is very lightly traded nowadays. So this bad move was caused by not following set rules completely. Matigas lang talaga ang ulo (inborn stubborn).  
> MER was also a mistake, but it was caused by extraordinary circumstances prodded by SMC.
>> BUT Im still holding Kapuso and Liwanag. The loss in both after averaging down is not even 4% at present. So obviously, these are not staggeringly as bad a move in terms of impact.

Although, again, on hindsight, these are gambles. 'Expert' traders (like CANSLIM practitioners) will tell you never to come in when there is no clear market uptrend. However good the individual stock is, it will get pulled down by negative sentiment. If the volatility had a downward bias on medium term, if Bernanke firmed-up on his decision to ease QE by end of the year and did not become sheepish on his most recent testimony to the US Capitol, I could have been holding another portfolio set showing nothing but paper losses.

Good luck with your trades. The battle continues.