Pumapapalag ang Tubig

Ayon sa aking pansamantalang pamantayan na obserbahan at hulihin ang mga stock na may tatlong nagtutulung-tulongang banyaga--ang magtutubig na MWC ang aking nakita noong Lunes hanggang Miyerkules. Nagtutulung-tulong ang CSUISSE, PEP, MACQ, DEUTSCHE, atbp sa pagbili ng isang ito.

(Malikot pa rin, pero mukhang may nagsisimulang mag-ipon na na mga banyaga (tignan din ang paglaki ng bolyum).  

May natunugan na kaya ang mga foreigner na balita tungkol sa arbitration sa Singapore? Hindi ba inaabot nang taun-taon ang pagdinig sa mga korteng ito? Katakut-takot na sandwich, bayad, at pa-lunch sa mga abogado ang wawaldasin pa ng MWC at ng ating gobyerno (para ipaglaban ang posisyon ng MWSS) bago magkaron nang kaliwanagan ang kaso ng tamang singil sa tubig.

Magaling naman talaga ang MWC. Dito pa nga nilagay ang magaling na CEO ng mga Ayala na si Ablaza mula sa Globe papunta sa tubigan. Marahil, ginawa ito nila JAZA para palawigin at palakihin ang mas delikado at sensitibong bisnes na ito (mas sensitibo nga naman kaysa sa telekomunikasyon ang ipinapaligong at iniinom na tubig). Alam ko rin na kailangan ng malilikhaing mga hakbang para kumita sa mga baranggay na walang metro, o yaong mga lugar na punung-puno ng ilegal na koneksyon. Malamang nakita ninyo na rin ito... iyong nagsasalimbayang plastic na tubo, goma, hose, at tumatalsik na tubig sa daan.

Sa lugar namin sa Caloocan, ginastusan talaga ang paghuhukay ng daan para maayos ang mga primerong linya at mga kuneksyon sa mga bahay. Pinutol na rin sa proseso ang mga iligal. Ang kaagad-agad na benepisyo sa mga nagbabayad... kakaibang lakas ng presyur sa tubig na di namin naramdaman ng deka-dekada. Kaya't sa ganang akin, maganda naman ang naging pribatisasyon ng tubohan at tubigan natin.

Wag po

Kaya't medyo OA sa akin ang nagtatawag agad na ibalik sa MWSS ang admin ng tubig. Hindi ninyo ba naiimadyin ang pila sa munisipyo? Napapansin ninyo ba na habang maraming naghihintay, maraming tatanga-tangang nakatunganga o nagbabasa ng diyaryo duon at naghihintay ng alas singko para makauwi na?  Bagama't tama nga lamang na tignan ang rekwes na itaas ang singil ng ganun-ganon na lamang.

Mukha kasing guilty ang mga nasa board ng MWSS dahil na-expose ang naglalakihang 'consultation fees' at sweldo nila kaya't gusto agad makabawi, kaya't reduction ang inanawns, kaya ayun sumadsad kasunod ang presyo ng MWC.

(MWSS Chairman na biglang kambyo at anawns ng bawas-singil)

(Naglaho ang singkwenta porsento ng halaga ng MWC lasyir dahil sa pagpapasiklab ni Alikpala. Biruin mo, parang naging BHI lang ang galaw)

Heniwey, hindi man lumabas ang paborableng desiyon tungkol sa kaso, naniniwala ako na makakahanap ng oportunidad sa ibang lugas sa pinas o sa ibang lupalop sila Ablaza para palaguin pa ang kumpanya. Maglalagay na ako ako nang kaunti sa MWC para may paglagyan naman ang posisyong-salapi.

Ang sabi pa nga ng itay ko, 250 to 320 lang ang bill sa tubig ng anim na katao. Ikumpara ito sa kuryente namin? Tumataginting na limanlibo.

Meralco at power plant ng mga Lopez na lang ang tiradurin ninyo, mga katotong tibak.

(Ang mga Lopez ay mahusay lang makapag-isip kung pano makapanlamang at mautakan ang polisiya ng gobyerno. Hanggang ngayon tumitira pa rin sila nang pailalim kung paano makakatabo sa EPIRA at WESM) 

Hindi ko nga pala binanggit dito ang pagkakabili ng mga Lopez sa Maynilad at pagkaka-mismanage nito. Laking gudnews nga ng kinuha na lang ni MVP at DMC ang pagmando. Sa ibang post na lang ito.

Market Skim Through: MPI, MWC, AC, DMC, hit with regulatory bad news, market recovery stunted

What bad timing by MWSS. Our market is on its path of needed recovery until this regulator unleashed a big-impact ruling. Can we expect them to adjust their schedule to the stock market? Probably not, but since MWSS board  know ahead that both MWC and Maynilad will not swallow a rate reduction, and would go to arbitration, the least that they could have done is announce that the issue will go to arbitration directly. And that the fair rates will be determined after arbitration. Unleashing a proud memo with an imposed -16% reduction in water rates is not the best direction for the multitude. After this order, the two companies now announced anyway that they will continue to charge current rates, so there's no benefit in announcing immediately reduced rates after all.

	Stock Code	Last	Change	%Change	Value
1	LMG	2.0900	-0.3900	-15.73%	2,090
2	VITA	0.7000	-0.1200	-14.63%	567,740
3	LAND	1.5300	-0.1700	-10.00%	291,420
4	MPI	4.7000	-0.4000	-7.84%	364,749,731
5	PX	9.1200	-0.7600	-7.69%	55,174,061
6	EG	0.0150	-0.0010	-6.25%	226,500
7	LCB	0.4900	-0.0300	-5.77%	10,623,370
8	MRC	0.0900	-0.0050	-5.26%	22,440
9	OPM	0.0180	-0.0010	-5.26%	3,985,900
10	ORE	1.4500	-0.0700	-4.61%	132,070
11	DMC	46.2500	-2.1500	-4.44%	42,961,425
12	ROX	2.4000	-0.1000	-4.00%	78,200
13	MWC	31.0000	-1.1500	-3.58%	123,876,820
14	BDO	72.5000	-2.5000	-3.33%	224,559,549
15	MAB	0.0290	-0.0010	-3.33%	1,067,000
16	AGF	2.3900	-0.0800	-3.24%	125,140
17	HI	6.1100	-0.2000	-3.17%	227,088
18	DIZ	5.1000	-0.1500	-2.86%	220,735
19	ABSP	31.8000	-0.9000	-2.75%	16,434,380
20	DMPL	25.8000	-0.7000	-2.64%	10,511,185

Although the sword is hanging on MWC and Maynilad's heads since two months ago, when activists and some politicians took up the popular issue (regarding why the two concessionaires are passing on the VAT that they pay to consumers), the announcement still came up as a surprise.It negatively jolted the prices of four important index issues.

AC was on its way to a respectable increase, MPI on a gradual run-up, DMC being supported by buy-ups of the Consunjis, and MWC part of a group that is also recovering, but all four promptly went down after lunch when the disclosure was put up. MPI went down -7.84% in closing, behaving like a bazur. 

I wont argue here whether the ruling is right or wrong. That should be answered by what's written in the concession agreement. At this point, the arbitration needs to move fast. If it's proven that the government changed rules in the middle of the game, they should retract promptly.  If it's decided on the other hand that it's not right for company taxes to be passed on to our water bills, MWC and Maynilad would have to look hard at the viability of the infrastructures they are planning for the future. The rate reduction will impact their top line by a huge -16% in one go. The reduction/pain will not be gradual.

At our end, as consumers, I think everyone can say that water pressure in our homes improved vastly from when everything was still being handled by MWSS. And the cost of electricity is the more painful utility than water.

As a stock market participant, we have no choice but to be hands-off on MPI and MWC. MPI in particular was in my radar the past few weeks for its cheap  valuation and price swings (a good candidate for range trading). It was a definite buy before at 4.9. What happened instead was I escaped with breakeven yesterday, and now will be waiting with one tranche buy at 4.6. If MWSS's move turned out to be another unfortunate catalyst for a downtrend, well damn damn damn, we really have to wait until Christmas to take our PSE to where it should be. Im betting is should be 7200 by yearend. But now, I think 6800 is more realistic. 

Market Skim Through: 10 September, GTCAP, update on pick of the week

Market went back to 6 K territory. These people should take another picture for good luck:

(especially the Tatang in the middle. His smile should bring buckets of good luck)

The percentage increase was actually nearing 2.5% in the morning , but retraced to +1.55%, because some locals were took profits in SM, SMPH, TEL immediately after lunch.

In the end, Pwede na rin (all's well/very acceptable), primarily because of the volume--at 9 B-- and more importantly--foreign investors were net buyers at Php1.08billion. I repeat: foreign investors were net buyers at 1 B.  I haven't seen this statement for months.

Ginebra San Miguel on the other hand provided entertainment. Many, including me, are scouring for news regarding the company. We knew upfront that there should be big positive news. If not for a possible sale, it's the only reason that can reverse this losing company from its continuous painful decline.

After the market closed, this was posted. And so Ginebra is entitled to some 50% royalty from LTG. How much can this be? Can another run-up happen tomorrow because of this? Can Ginebra get the money tomorrow from Tanduay?

	Stock Code	Last	Change	%Change	Value
1	GSMI	20.8000	3.2800	18.72%	45,454,621
2	ATN	1.1000	0.1000	10.00%	115,500
3	2GO	1.7000	0.1500	9.68%	6,700
4	ECP	2.8200	0.2400	9.30%	25,000
5	RLT	0.4500	0.0350	8.43%	900,000
6	MG	0.3900	0.0300	8.33%	19,500
7	BKD	1.1000	0.0800	7.84%	211,150
8	IMI	1.9900	0.1100	5.85%	39,850
9	SPH	1.9500	0.1000	5.41%	89,700
10	GTCAP	800.0000	35.0000	4.58%	222,252,830
11	DAVIN	1.0600	0.0400	3.92%	1,005,440
12	BLOOM	11.0000	0.4000	3.77%	125,374,110
13	PAL	5.7000	0.2000	3.64%	543,309
14	CLOUD	6.2000	0.2000	3.33%	37,420
15	WEB	11.4000	0.3600	3.26%	26,794,756
16	ABS	33.5500	1.0500	3.23%	61,720
17	MHC	0.6400	0.0200	3.23%	140,430
18	CPG	1.3800	0.0400	2.99%	20,468,230
19	CHIB	55.5000	1.6000	2.97%	3,708,289
20	SM	717.5000	18.5000	2.65%	448,480,880

My own entry in GTCAP was fortuitous. I was preparing more for the PSEi adjustment as explained in my pick of the week, but I was rewarded with an immediate 4% paper gain instead due the general positive sentiment. Ive re-set my sell to 830 for GTCAP. 

I also bought in a trance with MPI, seeing that virtually just one single broker is bringing it down--ATR (which in turn one of the big buyers in GTCAP). If not for ATR, this stock should have had at least +1.5%. Im betting it would give me at least 3.5% on or before Friday.

VLL is still a stock to watch (see desired entry price in previous post). And GMA7... volume is just too low to get in. Baka hindi na.  

If we see another round of 1 B foreign buying Wednesday until Friday, Im willing to bet that we'll go back to 7200 again within the year.

There is however a FED meeting next week. This is the one thing that can prompt me to sell, regardless how confident I am of my holdings.