Thank you, MEG and JGS!

Writing a short post just to gloat about these two picks that were on point and jumped within the 30-day period that Ive set.

Ive sold some MEG at 3.65 as previously decided, and some JGS at 42. Im still holding a substantial half of each though, given that they are still showing strength. Ive set next sell points for MEG at 3.79 and 3.89; while none yet for the remaining JGS, since this conglomerate is releasing good news left and right and peso appears strengthening (they will declare forex gains if peso comes back to 40 PhP).

There was also some hefty gain from ANS, which I sold at 6.89, 6.99 and 7.1. I wish I could have added more when it was hovering at 6.5, and many of us in SMP was almost 100% sure that it is going to announce a hefty devs, but it was the low volume trading that held me off. In any case, it was a good ~ 8% average gain.  Thank you, too, Andres. (Lorna Kapunan, abandon Napoles please).

Only FDC and LC appear to be failed (minor and speculative) picks. Im still holding two tranches of LC at -6% loss (Im ready to cut loss here at -15%, but it never reached that yet). I added one tranche of FDC at 4 (buy was set last night). I believe it should go up given that subsidiary FLI is going up.

Week 41 was a good week, while Im mostly out and cant follow the action.

Still have no time to research for a good pick. Will do that again on Sunday.

Pick of the week for Week 39: MEG

Im banking on the sufficient probability that we are on an uptrend however small (could be just +5% of current PSEi level today or 6800) and however short (could be just until last part of October when anxiety of tapering will prop up its ugly head again).

If we are on an uptrend MEG must catch-up with ALI and other properties that are currently showing strength. Indeed, MEG has already jumped 18% from its 2.9ish low last August, but it's current P/E is just 11--still very cheap compared to its peers SMPH and ALI. MEG should have more juice left--Im projecting 3.75ish in the next 2 weeks, but I'll be selling starting at 3.65. 

Im also watching JGS, which was also a previous stalwart, but was clobbered by Forex losses in a recent earnings report. Now that PhP is gaining against the greenback (or greenback is weakening against all currencies in general), the real performance of JGS should come to the fore. 

It is also reasonable to expect JGS returning to at least 42 PhP, which is its level when our index was 6800. Today's price to 42 is 10%+ difference, so this issue might be good for a 'short term,' high single-digit percentage profit. But still, dont go all in, invest in tranches and average down even up to 45 if it goes down that low.

There are also "Dark Horse" picks like

ANS--should be announcing hefty dividends in the the next 4 weeks.
FDC--hasnt recovered yet, but its subsidiaries are already gaining ground.
LC--for its short-term behavior, a bet in LC is a bet in Gold increasing.
Gold, as most other highly-traded commodities, is expected to increase given the interim "taper-off"(taper removal). LC almost always follow the trend of gold, at times as immediate as the following day. If Gold jumps 3 consecutive days, for instance, LC must jump accordingly.

But FDC and ANS are illiquid. And LC is notorious for its volatility and general 'danger' (this company is almost direction-less until the future of mining in the Philippines is straightened out). Bet on any of these three if only you are that kind of person that loves 'playing,' and you would have time to monitor the price movement daily and closely. Do not hold, especially LC, for too long. 

Pick of the week for Week 35: Possibilities

First off, although Im already sounding like a broken record, stay in CASH if you want to be safe.

BUT if you want to participate, here are 'possibilities' the stocks to look at:

1) Gold already breached 1400, and seems to be on an uptrend, but LC still went down 8.77%, and PX by 2.7%. As we've mentioned elsewhere, trend of LC and the bunch seem to follow the trend of gold the night before, but this day is a contrarian day. The big bearish shock early in the opening probably overwhelmed holders early. I'll be betting one tranche tomorrow each on LC (or LCB) and PX.

2) ALI, a solid solid company, is already oversold (20 RSI). I'll be getting in at 24. This stock, several times in recent past, quickly bounced with just a marginal breach of oversold territory. The only problem is if there is really a general, pervasive, bearish, sell-sell-sell sentiment or there's a big local bad news waiting to explode... then not just ALI but all of PSE is doomed. But If there are no extraordinary negative circumstances, 24 offers good enough price with right margin of safety to enter. Just remember to sell at a small profit. Do not aim for double-digit percentage gain at this time.

3) VLL is a good stock to enter at 5, 5.01. Im also predicting an upcoming hefty divs announcement (between 2 - 3% yield) in the next two weeks.

4) I have to include MBT in this list again. P/E at current price is 8.48! Cheapest among the top 3 banks by a wide margin, and this stock has an upcoming stock divs to boot.

5) If you are in a 'bargain-hunting mode, check the EPS and P/E of other index stocks. (no exhorting need to look at bazurs at this time since blue chips are going on sale). But in the end, these are still dangerous times. Youll have to have faith on the company and have some strong ('emotionless') resolve, or [better] to just stay in cash, and wait for a clear uptrend.

6) The Sy stocks including mother ship SM are also in oversold range. However, the MSCI adjustment is still for 1st week of September, and there seems to be an continuous ominous cloud of bad intention (or rape?) by foreign fundies toward the Sy's. It's fearful to get in to SM, SMPH. I wont get in.

C'mon index! C'mon locals. That includes me! C'mon--we can doh it!

Market Skim Through: PSEi practically unchanged, LTG and AC going down, mining going down again

PSE index is practically unchanged today. Index was helped by AC's recovery from as high as -5%+ to -4.22% at closing. Will this perennial foreign fund favorite continue to go down tomorrow?

MEG also recovered at closing from -2.0% to almost a doji. Need to watch MEG tomorrow if there's a need to add up.

Another big conglomerate LTG went down. Both AC and LTG suffered without apparent negative news (so far none disclosed at least).

Mining issues also was negative throughout the day. The 'funny' thing about the two LC stocks and MA especially is they seem to immediately swing-up big (+/- 2% seems small) depending on whether Gold was up the previous trading day (hours) overseas. So if you entered today, must pray same night for gold to rise.

#	Stock Code	Last	Change	%Change	Value
1	ATNB	1.1500	-0.1300	-10.16%	83,300
2	AR	0.0035	-0.0002	-5.41%	91,900
3	PHA	0.2950	-0.0150	-4.84%	157,700
4	UNI	0.1620	-0.0080	-4.71%	3,270
5	LTG	21.9000	-1.0000	-4.37%	62,000,085
6	AC	613.0000	-27.0000	-4.22%	410,160,925
7	MB	0.7300	-0.0300	-3.95%	40,340
8	FOOD	1.2800	-0.0500	-3.76%	1,411,230
9	APO	1.9300	-0.0700	-3.50%	904,220
10	AB	23.5000	-0.8500	-3.49%	193,485
11	FFI	14.7000	-0.5000	-3.29%	44,100
12	LCB	0.5900	-0.0200	-3.28%	2,578,310
13	MA	0.0300	-0.0010	-3.23%	6,303,100
14	FEU	1,200.0000	-40.0000	-3.23%	4,962,000
15	MAB	0.0320	-0.0010	-3.03%	1,158,400
16	PNX	5.5300	-0.1600	-2.81%	5,977,376
17	VLL	5.6900	-0.1600	-2.74%	66,411,973
18	COAT	2.9000	-0.0800	-2.68%	348,000
19	ORE	1.8400	-0.0500	-2.65%	1,532,230
20	ZHI	0.4000	-0.0100	-2.44%	1,405,100