Pick of the week for Wk38 is GLOPP. Watch also FLI (buy at 1.45 if this reaches this price)

I didnt expect a preferred stock to trade at this high volume. (Look at Ayala's and the preferred stocks of others, which has zero volume daily), but local funds might have decided to park funds according to the dividend promise of this issue. There could be a +5% here in short term. (Disclosure: I bought a chunk of this issue at offering price, when I was looking to park some excess cash in). But--enter cautiously. Im still not sure about the overall market sentiment. There's net foreign selling the past few days, and many are saying that the index increase today is just technical bounce (a temporary respite from being down consecutive days).

Im also observing FLI. It's a definite add when it reaches 1.45. I like fundamentally-sound, good-current-P/E, second liners like FLI, which also pay generous dividend (at least 4%) annually. If you get stuck, at least you can count on some income.

FLI is definitely better than CPG (which is a good peer for comparison) in this sense. Although I also already entered CPG again at 1.28...

And so it's CPG and Okada

I thought it's going to be ROCK or another relatively smaller player like ALPHA, BHI, ELI, but the Antonio's apparently entered the picture and closed with Okada. 

Congrats to all who tenaciously held on to CPG.

This will gap up tomorrow and increase in double figures, although you must impute in your expectations the fact that there were already people who received advanced word last Thursday (prompting CPG to increase 5%+). I will also look for a possible daytrade play. Why not long-term?  Well, we need to read-up more on construction timeline of the casino, the resort that will be attached, and their uniqueness compared to Belle/Dreams and Solaire. Does Okada, for example, have an existing junket system with a customer portfolio of rich mainland Chinese (similar to MCP and BEL's  advantage that they are bragging about)? Also, the Antonios will need to raise more cash. We need to know where and at what terms will they get fresh funds.

In any case, it was a nice play for Robbie da Pogi and his dad.

And now we're starting over again...

Our market's year-to-date gains were erased last Wednesday. Yes, it's like starting over again... and worse, to some, present sentiment is bleaker than in January. There are doomsayers who want the index further back to 5200, back to exactly a year ago (instead of just beginning 2013), when Ghost month was also ending.  

Fortunately, the index bounced back +6% in two days, and I profited from the swing. The first gain was from a purchase in GTCAP, which I believed did not deserve falling -10% in one day. And then by early Thursday, when there's an apparent chance of a big bounce, I got in in AGI, CPG, TA, and VLL (these also tumbled down to below 'strong support' on Wednesday). By Friday, there was already a positive general sentiment. Our sell points for AGI and VLL got hit, bringing back cash position to above 30%. We came out okay for the week.

Now, what's next? We're ending Ghost month next week and the past 3 years show consistent good performance from this time up to year end. The problem though is the volatility that remains in our market. Bleak conditions, not present last year, like the impending bombing of Syria and QE easing of US Fed, continue to bring us a shaky market. If you observe the exchange of trades in a stock like SM, even for just a few minutes, you can see the extraordinary tussle between bulls and bears. And worse, the bears are mostly foreign funds that seem violent, with bad intentions, seemingly intending to leave carnage, when they exit. Although I have some doubts in divesting AGI (this stock prove to be one of the most resilient across the PSE), it's only right to secure some profit and better our cash positions in this backdrop.

It's also useful to consider that many traders are resigned to the scenario that we will not be able to go back to a 7 K index this year. Most of them are just hoping to go back to 6600. And 6600 should be an easy target, if we base on the +11% that happened last year. I would also be happy if we hover between 6600-6800, BUT with stability. It feels not an even playing game when there's always a threat, that 'easiness' from foreigners to bring down a blue chip by -10% in a day. And the minute they decide to do that, you may be occupied in a meeting in the office in your day job.

What would bring that stability? 1) the Fed should announce a firm timeline on what they want to do. 2) the foreigners should finish withdrawing 3) probably more Pinoy buying strength. It's interesting to note that we're still net-foreign-sell days during the big bounce on Thurs and Fri. Local funds believe in our companies in that two days enough to prop our market back. I think this is not empty fear, but a threat that is apparent and which we should be defensive against.

On another macro point of view, going back to January prices somehow disregards all the good news and achievements (of our OFW's, of our call center agents, et al) from start of the year to now. It's like the pride-inducing GDP disclosures, investment upgrade never happened at all. And the rosy corporate earnings are negative instead. Should we be part of this group that disregard this solid data?

On the other side, we could also look at it this way: we could have been on a lower level today if not for those catalysts. And yes, we have to be at peace with the fact that our PSE is one of the most vulnerable to outside factors because 1) it is not that big enough yet and 2) we Filipinos who participate in equities are also not yet that many. Following foreign funds is still one of the most safest trading strategy until we find resolutions to the factors. If I use this, I should divest (or at least lessen) big position in MBT... that's something to ruminate about at the start of the week.

Bottom line, I envy those starting at 100% cash today. It's a good time to start. Or if you cut loss, it's a good time to start over again...

Clap! Clap! Clap! CPG

Maraming salamat CPG, maraming salamat Robbie da Pogi, maraming salamat Paris Hilton at sa iyong dedeng masyadong pinisa para magka-cleavage.

Tama na sa akon ang diyes porsyentong kita na naani pagkatapos lamang ng tatlong araw. Bakit hindi ko hinintay ma-abot ang rurok ng luwalhati bago ibenta? Hindi ko naman kasi masusubaybayan ang merkado; kailangang kumayod sa umaga. Hindi rin pangmatagalang hawak para sa kin sila Robbie; hindi ko arok ang kanyang Museo at di ko alam kung bakit pinapayagan at iniispoiled sya ng kanyang tatay sa mga kaululang pagkakagastusan.  Hindi rin tayo nag-aambisyon na makaganansya nang katulad ng kay SUN. Hindi rin ako fan ng pilit na cleavage. Atsaka, hindi rin ako kumbinsido pa na nasa "confirmed uptrend" na ang merkado, ika nga nila William O'Neill (bagamat isa ako syemps sa nananalangin na sana simula na nga ng pagsipa pataas ng indeks).

Ngayon, nag-post ako ng buy sa AC at BEL. Sana mabiyayayaan. Sisilip din ako sa galaw ni AP at JGS bukas nang alas-diyes. Hindi gano pabongga at napapansin ang dalwang ito, pero mga solido naman na kumpanya. Ang AP, di pa gano tumaas, malamang may sipa maski +5% hanggang biyernes.

Ang JGS, natalo lang sa forex kaya mababa ang ganansyang inulat. Pero kung wala ang pagtaas ng dolyares laban sa piso, buung-buo ang kita ng mga negosyo ng conglomerate na ito. Maganda pa ang kumbinasyon ng bisnes ng mga Gokongwei. May sinerhiya ang real estate, retail, food manufacturing, plastics processing, etc. Hindi katulad ng kay RSA na kalat-kalat, buhaghag. walang core, at tirada lang nang tirada hanggang sa malugi (Wi-tribe). Di pa mahuhusay ang mga middle managers ng SMC. Magagaling lang mag-follow-up at puros sigaw (pero walang diskarte).

Gudlak sa atin!

Market Skim Through, 14 August 2013. SUN shone on those who saw the disclosure early. SUN Sisters benefit. JFC is a mutant!

Another good, invigorating day for the market. Overall index increase was +1.56%, crossing the 20-day SMA, to 6600+, at a another respectable 7 B PhP trading volume.

	Stock Code	Last	Change	%Change	Value
1	SUN	0.8500	0.2800	49.12%	15,409,370
2	RPL	10.6000	2.8200	36.25%	493,032
3	PRMX	3.3600	0.3700	12.37%	20,160
4	GSMI	16.8800	1.3800	8.90%	1,211,856
5	ARA	1.4400	0.0900	6.67%	668,730
6	ICTV	0.4250	0.0250	6.25%	555,850
7	ION	0.5300	0.0300	6.00%	530
8	MED	0.2750	0.0150	5.77%	38,300
9	WPI	0.3850	0.0200	5.48%	44,800
10	CPG	1.3600	0.0700	5.43%	48,036,250
11	JFC	177.0000	9.0000	5.36%	176,314,323
12	PAX	2.3100	0.1100	5.00%	381,780
13	RLC	22.5500	1.0500	4.88%	38,765,040
14	MHC	0.6500	0.0300	4.84%	4,407,980
15	AGI	28.1000	1.2500	4.66%	399,259,775
16	MBT	110.9000	4.9000	4.62%	420,926,251
17	STR	3.8700	0.1700	4.59%	163,620
18	PRC	9.9000	0.4000	4.21%	0
19	PHN	15.0000	0.6000	4.17%	614,190
20	DFNN	4.8900	0.1700	3.60%	343,600

SUN ended at that rare ceiling price, because of a disclosed stock rights offering, to be set at a price of 1 PhP. There was no rumor or premonition to the upcoming rights; SUN's board is perhaps commendable for guarding the plan, keeping it secret until after board approval. Those who were focused on the PSE website for disclosures, and was able to catch the disclosure early, and got in early in SUN, deserved the gain. More so those who were already invested before hand. 

I think SUN  will continue to go up tomorrow and should easily breach 0.9 PhP. 0.95 would be probable; while above 1 PhP would be remarkable (many would sell to take profit at 0.95 above). I havent and wont participate in SUN, because of its tarnished heritage. It's still the former BW Resources, raised by thieves that almost brought our entire economy down.  I still believe Andrew Tan shouldn't have bought SUN. 

But in any case, Andrew Tan seems mind the performance of his stocks and also does not disregard the small investors. His rights and follow-on offering are placed not at a steep discount (unlike SMC, ICT, ABS, SM, et al  have done recently), but more often at a plus premium (like what he did for GERI and MEG recently).

Probably due to the ceiling-move and goodwill from SUN, sisters GERI, MEG, and ELI also have shown significant increases. And then mother ship AGI surged +4+%. 

JFC, on the other hand, continues to show its mutant ability, and jumped even higher today. It disregarded already the downtrend of the past several weeks and now, since last week, is showing 52-week highs day-after-day, seemingly without any resistance. Its P/E is already at 40 (even higher than AC), but still not showing any weakness. Foreigners are participating in the buying. I will write a whole entry about JFC (close to my heart) within next week. 

SM and group also continued their recovery. 

And then CPG continued its uptrend. It was a good buy two days ago (good call by James K Nava). If youre able to enter art 1.22 or 1.23, best to take profit already.

Those watching in the sidelines, again, should reduce their cash position and enter on issues after doing their own personal research. If you need it, I have posted some suggested stocks, in recent posts, for you to look at, but most of them admittedly already went up considerably. You can also develop a strategy of your own. One input that Ive read is to check which hasnt increased significantly the past two days. Those stocks could be good candidates, because if the market goes into confirmed uptrend, every fundamentally-good company should go up. 

Tungkol sa Century Properties at kay Robbie Antonio

Gusto kong mangumpisal: ang akala ko dati ang Century Properties Group ay pagmamay-ari ng mga kapitalista ng Century Tuna. Oo, ang akala ko yung angkan na may isang miyembrong nakapangasawa kay Nanette Medved ay nag-diversify sa pag-co-condominium, pero hindi pala.

Ang Century Properties ay minamando ng mga Antonio (hindi ng Fil-Chi ng Century Tuna na nakapangasawa ng isang Nanette Medved). Ang patriarch ng CPG ay si Jose or Joey, na dating ambassador sa Tsina (niluklok ng mga Arroyo).

(Si G. Ambassador, habang mataimtim na nag-iisip kung pano lalong kumita).  

Pero ang mga pinunong manedyer na umeeksena sa ngayon ay ang kanyang dalawang anak. At sa dalawa, si Jose Roberto o Robbie ang mas madalas magpa-interbyu at ma-kodak-an (katulad nitong larawan sa ibaba na kasama si Paris Hilton, na sumobra naman yata ang pakakapitpit sa dede!):

(Si G. Robbie na kahit anong bihis at porma ay may hapyaw-kargador-na-nabilad-sa-araw pa rin ang hitsura. Hindi mo mapapatungan ang pinoy looks. At bakit mo naman iwawaksi, Pare? 

Isa pang trivia: hindi raw nagsusuot si Robbie ng hindi tailor fit ayon sa isang interbyu. I-google na lang ang iba pa nyang narsisismo). 

Bagamat hanga ako kay G. Robbie sa pagtatapos nito ng MBA sa Stanford GSB (ang hirap makapasok dine), hindi ako humahanga sa kaululang proyekto nyang nagkakahalaga ng isang bilyon. Ang tinatawag pa mandin sa proyekto... Museum of Me. Sanamagan, basahin na lamang dito ang detalye (nasa Vanity Fair pa ang artikel).

(Biruin mong gumastos nang sangkaterbang-sangkatutak si G. Robbie para ipadrowing ang kanyang mukha kila Julian Schnabel, David LaChapelle, et al. Wow! Laglag-panty tiyak ang mga alta-sosyedad na matrona na nagsa-shopping sa Rustan's pagkatapos mag-mahjong) 

Ika nga ni Tiglao sa kolum na ito, di hamak na mas maigi sana na nagdonate na lamang si G. Robbie sa sa Ateneo ng isang bilding at tawagin, halimbawa, na Robbie Da Pogi Hall. Mas magiging pangmatagalan, mas mahaba ang mileage (panghambambuhay pa malamang), at magiging kapaki-pakinabang pa sa mas nakakararami ang isang bilyong piso.

Pero, baka naman sabihin ni G. Robbie  e hindi naman sya alumni ng Ateneo o LaSalle, kaya hindi papayag ang mga trustees na magpangalan ng Robbie the Pogi College of Hair Science nang basta-basta... Ang sagot? Aba, e de magdonate na lamang siya sa Libis Talisay Elementary School at palitan ang buong pangalan nito nang Mababang Paaralan ng Dakilang-Robbie-Da-Greyt-na-dinesenyo-IM-Pei, Inc. Elementary School. Patok yon, at tyak na papayag ang DECS District Supervisor dyaan sa may Caloocan.

Buweno, ang Century Properties ngayon ay lugmok ang presyo at matagal nang nagbabantang bumaba sa 1.2

Sa posturang ito ng presyuhan. mukhang maigi nang tumaya sa CPG bukas at sa mga darating na araw, dahil:

1) mura ang CPG sa 1.2. Biruin mong 5 lang ang P/E, mas mura pa sa ROCK (na isa pang kamote), samantalang di hamak na mas malaki ang kita ni CPG kay ROCK.
2) kung magtutuloy ang nasimulan kanina na pagtaas ng sector ng properties, dapat gumiya man lamang nang +5% ang CPG bago bumaba muli (kung gusto nyang bumaba muli).
3) Mukhang matibay ang suporta sa 1.2; kailangang tumalbog na ang presyo dito, at gumawa nang parang mini-head-and-shoulder pattern man lamang. Kung hindi, dausdos ito sa piso at krisis na (naubos ang pera sa Museo?).
4) dapat mahiya naman si CPG kay VLL na umarangkada na ng husto
5) nakabinbin din ang stock divs na tyak na magtutulak ng presyo kapag inananawns na ang ex-div date.

Bagamat bugbog ng reklamo ang nauna nilang condom dyaan sa Edsa Central na ampaw daw ang dingding, na kapag may nagyuyugyugan sa kabila ay maririnig mo raw ang mga bira at halinghing. (Pero anlakas na lab meyking naman siguro noon)... wag na muna  gano intindihin ito at ang Museum of Me. Lunukin na muna ang vanity ng mga Antonio. (Sana lang hindi ikinarga sa cost center ng CPG ang bayad sa Nakananginang Museo). Tumaya na nang konti sa CPG at ibenta agad kapag kumita na nang 8%.

Mag-ingat na lamang at magdahan-dahan sa pag-invest sa CPG. Mga-average down kapag bumaba pa sa 1.1. Kapag dumausdos pa nang mas mababa sa piso, kitilin na ang pagkatalo at masdan na lang ang mga poster ni Paris Hilton, at ang mga larawan ni G. Robbie-da-Poging-Pogi sa Museum of Me.