Stocks Im aching to go back to

If Putin's posturing indeed brings our PSE down, 

there could be some benefit to many of us who's holding a healthy cash position.

For myself, a steep correction could allow me to place some bets again in these issues I never lost a bet with (you can call this my Top-5-but-Im-not-currently-holding stocks):

1) MEG -- I'll start entering at 3.73 with one tranche and continue to add even if it struts down to 3.0

2) PGOLD--will start at 38 and place bets until 30

3) AGI--25.9, will add until 20

4) DNL--785 will add until 700

5) toss-up between SCC (290... but improbable to happen) or GTCAP (785 until 700)--

Apologies to those still holding.
Yes, Im wishing for these to go down, but I consider these issues among the most resilient of the past 12 months. They seem to be among the stocks that return back to previous highs (and make new highs). Besides being fundamentally solid, they also seem to return to their 'true' valuation (in terms of growth promise) the fastest way.

There are others that perform like them, but these are the ones I dont have current positions in (and would want to go back to) asap.

Pick of the Week updates

I'll make it a practice to review my picks 4 weeks back always, since Ive made it a point since Q4 last year to stay with my picks normally at a month's horizon.

It's nearing harvest time for the picks of the weeks.
--in wk8 (GTCAP)... Im at 5% now, will be considering to sell at 8% tops.
--wks 9 and 10 (TEL)... on top of the hefty dividends in PLDT, we might get some cherry on top, probably +3% in the coming few days.
--wk 7's MBT, where I profited already (with MEG) substantially, I still have some position remaining in my nimbler port at +4%. We'll probably sell all at +5%. (My bigger port still has substantial MBT, remnants of last year, at -2%).
--Wk 11, the dividend-paying-company-nearing-exdate-announcement that I chose is MER. It is showing +1.97% for me today, but I placed only a small bet. I'll sell at +4 or 5%.

These target sell prices are based on the premise that PSEI will correct again once it reached 6650. As most retail investors, Im hoping that the PSEi will have momentum until 6800 in a few days; after all, it's rare to see a net foreign selling day since beginning Feb. But Im already willing to take some profit at 6600-6700.

Good luck with the possible jump up in the next few days.

Pick of the Week for Wk 47: MEG and choose one among the Top 3 banks.

If you've unloaded MEG two weeks ago the moment you saw that it is having a hard time push itself to 3.9, or you noticed that a strong force is preventing it to blow past 4 PhP again, you are lucky! Now is the time to buy again. The company just reported a solid 15% net income increase and its landbank remains very competitive vs SMPH and ALI. And its P/E remains at a very undervalued 11 vs. the two peers. MEG should attempt to go past 3.9 again in 4 weeks and should breach 4 within the year.

My own unloading two weeks ago was prompted by it oversold status at RSI. Observing the chart the past 12 months, it dips every time it goes to oversold status. Also, a factor that added in favor of unloading is that the overall market is still shaky. Even attempted uptrend during the day cant seem to go full blown. There are parties (local and foreign) probably eager to exit specific stocks the moment they see the chance.

I believe it's also time to buy banks that tumbled down a bit last week. Read up and choose between BPI, BDO, and MBT. At worse, you might be forced to hold until March if it does not increase before year end.

Pick of the week for Week 45 : TA TEL, and look out for buy-again points in GTCAP, SCC, MEG, AGI, JGS, and AEV

TA has good momentum currently and the sell volume is getting thinner and thinner since late last week after it surged up. Im heavy on TA; I was able to get back to my previous big position after I sold near half of holdings at its 2.8 peak months ago. Even though TA was not in my pick of the week list, I just bought tranches gradually when it was hovering at 2.1 - 2.2. This was done on faith given TA's growth potential, the management of the company, and its clear plans. Any one can read up on the plants and windmills under development, as well as Dean Viray's existing clout in the industry (including regulators). Lastly, Ive never lost yet a trade in TA and it gave me consistent hefty profits since to start of the year, so to support the stock's price at 2.1 can be sheer returning debt of gratitude (utang na loob) on my part :-) Further, Im still expecting gains on the property divs for Trans-asia Petroleum.

I was not expecting TEL to go back to below 2900, more so to go back insider its previous strong support at 2800-2830 range. This is always a safe stock to accumulate given its dividend yield. Furthermore, its current P/E is 15.8 while GLO is already at 21. I think the market is mis-pricing TEL and we should take advantage of the opportunity handed to us. Im ready to just add and add tranches even if TEL goes down to 2500. After adding earlier today, I now hold 5 tranches of TEL in my two ports (two brokers) combined.

Both TA and TEL I believe should gain +10% within this month, but I'll be starting to sell at +8% vs. their current price, considering that we are still not in a confirmed overall uptrend.

One should also keep an eye on stocks that may offer good reentry points within the week. MEG I think is a buy-again/add at 3.69, AGI at 25.30, JGS at 41.50, and AEV at 49. I have already set GTM buys myself at these levels. Part of the wishlist is also for solid favorites (but not holding currently) GTCAP to go back to 803 and SCC to 240ish before we enter 2014, but these could be far fetched.

Late Pick of the Week: Look for higher lows in JGS, MBT, MEG, but if you're eager to position now, choose TEL

I knew I have time to monitor the market this week; there is valuable time to spend to hunt for short terms gains, so I disposed some green in MBT, MEG, AGI, and AEV to raise cash. I expect that sentiments of some locals will be to dispose at our current 6600 levels. Some of our countrymen who were jittered before are probably exiting at near breakeven, so it's time to dispose some green and wait for them to dip again by at least 3%--better at minus 5%--to re-take similar position size.

For example, I disposed a huge chunk of MEG at 3.91, the moment that I saw that 1) the stock is already oversold, and 2) it's too weak to even break 3.95. And so, 3.91 less 5% is 3.71. Im waiting since then to enter some at 3.71, add another position at 3.70, and then a huge buy position at 3.68. I still haven't been blessed with shares at these levels, but am waiting. If MEG continued strongly at this very high RSI. I still have 20% of my original position. I just have to live with my bet that it's more probable for MEG to cool off a bit and be below oversold levels.  

Same applies with AEV, AGI, and MBT... I disposed all or huge chunks of these stocks, and now Im waiting for their higher lows to materialize before getting in again (first reentry at -3%, ideal at -5%).

But since I wanted to take some new positions and not be holding too much cash, I took positions in TEL and DMPL as well. I think TEL is undervalued at this time, and will perform some +5% in short term. Why? 

1) its forward P/E is 16, while its only competitor GLO is trading at 23 - 30 P/E. I know that the Ayala's enjoy some premium over competitors because of their perceived better managers, but that disprity is just too much. 

2) the BPO industry is experiencing tremendous growth and TEL should be one of the main beneficiaries  

3) PLDT's DSL is way faster than those stupid Tattoos and mobile broadband scams.
4) If youre caught ipit even at -10%, there's still some margin of safety. TEL always pay hefty divs to make up for it.

DMPL I placed a small position in because 1) its current price is below its current at SGX, 2) I feel that the market hasnt fully taken in the impact of the acquisition of the US Del Monte business. This makes for some good reading regarding DMPL:

http://research.maybank-ib.com/pdf/document/Del_Monte_141013c_5174.pdf

Besides that, Christmas is nearing. We're approaching that time for Buko and Fruit Salads. That would have some Del Monte Fruit Cocktails by default.

Again, these picks of the week have time frame of at least four weeks. It's time to revise your portfolios for intermediate and long term and prepare for the surge until March.

Thank you, MEG and JGS!

Writing a short post just to gloat about these two picks that were on point and jumped within the 30-day period that Ive set.

Ive sold some MEG at 3.65 as previously decided, and some JGS at 42. Im still holding a substantial half of each though, given that they are still showing strength. Ive set next sell points for MEG at 3.79 and 3.89; while none yet for the remaining JGS, since this conglomerate is releasing good news left and right and peso appears strengthening (they will declare forex gains if peso comes back to 40 PhP).

There was also some hefty gain from ANS, which I sold at 6.89, 6.99 and 7.1. I wish I could have added more when it was hovering at 6.5, and many of us in SMP was almost 100% sure that it is going to announce a hefty devs, but it was the low volume trading that held me off. In any case, it was a good ~ 8% average gain.  Thank you, too, Andres. (Lorna Kapunan, abandon Napoles please).

Only FDC and LC appear to be failed (minor and speculative) picks. Im still holding two tranches of LC at -6% loss (Im ready to cut loss here at -15%, but it never reached that yet). I added one tranche of FDC at 4 (buy was set last night). I believe it should go up given that subsidiary FLI is going up.

Week 41 was a good week, while Im mostly out and cant follow the action.

Still have no time to research for a good pick. Will do that again on Sunday.

O-ha, Meg!

Tamang-tama ang pasok ko sa 3.33 at otomatik benta (iniwan lang ang gustong presyo) kanina sa 3.56.

Ayos na sa akin ang 7.5% na ganansya.

FDC na ngayon ang aking susubaybayan. Bili na ko konti sa kwatro. Naalala ko rin kasi ang kwatro o kwarto na tsismis noon sa unibersidad.

Heniwey, ambaba pa rin ng bolyum dahil nag-uumpugan pa rin ng bayag si Boehner at Obama. Wag kang magbibigay ng bayag, Obama. Oks lang na malugi kami konti o maghintay konti. Ipaglaban mo ang Obamacare. Pag bumigay ka sa mga kongresistang iyan ngayon, kakayan-kayanin ka na nyang mga yan hanggang sa magtapos ang termino mo. Baka di pa manalo si Hillary nyaan kapag di nangmatigas kayong mga Democrat.

Kami rito'y titingin-tingin muna ng bargain. Biruin mong 8 na lang pala ang P/E nga ng FDC, e dividend paying naman yaan.

Late Pick of the Week for Week 40: still MEG and watch the banks, especially MBT and BDO

Was out on several days for a teambuilding, was not able to actively participate in the market, was not able to make a pick of the week. And I became aware just now that finally the long-awaited Moody's upgrade was announced! But was also surprised that the increase after the lunchtime press release is just a measly +0.4%, and that the foreigners are still net sellers at this time. These facts, in combo, are surprising indeed.

It seems that the standoff between the Lower House and White House in the US bears more impact to us more than any good news. And October 17 seems to be the critical date to watch. This is the day when the US begins to default on some payables, if they dont get their act together. Imagine the gravity of this 'milestone' if ever it happens.

Since I will also be out tomorrow afternoon until Thursday (I dont know if James can post), and the only solution in my case is to be cautious. I'll still maintain my cash position, probably at minimum 25%, and will only place bets on MEG (which appears to be on the path of improvement again). I will also add a bit to existing green position MBT, which went down from 91 to 84, despite Moody's and other analysts singling out the strength of the bank and its current cheap valuation. BDO closed at a thick bid volume, this is almost guaranteed to be green tomorrow.

Others are recommending releasing all cash--If you do this, it will be a bet on the one good news. It's sound to do if you have time to follow price movement, so you will get have a better chance to make the right decision--whether it's time to cut loss or take profit. It's in knowing when either decision is needed.

***

I dont have time to fully research VLL, JGS, GTCAP, AGI, and other 'solid' non-bazur favorites of recent weeks. But if the Moody's upgrade 'overpowers' negative sentiment, they should be among the stocks that join the upward trend.

Include AC in this fray. It is almost assured to go back to 650 level if market really begins to go upward because of Moody's.

Good luck!

Recounting Week 39

If I was asked to place a bet last Sunday on whether the market will go up or down throughout last week, I would have bet that the market will go up even by 1%. What happened instead was we went back to a low 4-6 B PhP trading per day, and locals took profit. We're down 2% as a result.

There were also some negative rumours about AGI that made locals sell. That news about its shortchanging of upcoming backdoors and IPO's could be true, but Im ready to average down even if it goes down to 19.

The news about SMC, JGS, and MER also made impact. I made a separate post on this topic.

The main news that brought down equities seems to be the stand-off between US Congress and Obama on budget. Obama should show the lower house that he has some balls to shut down the government if needed. I think Speaker Boehner and his cohorts have smaller balls, and will give in the next two weeks, prompting a rally just before FED tapering news permeates again by end-October.

I profited +3% twice on JGS in the week, and sold half of green MEG just to hedge. I will add in MEG though if it goes down to 3.34 again. Im sticking to MEG as a good pick, with a time frame of two weeks. Im also still holding a significant MBT at 6+% gain
Im retaining cash position at 30%

I also made one tranche entry in SECB, which immediately turned green on the same day. I think its preferred shared rights is good for the stock price in the end. And SECB also tumbled dwon so low from its June high, it has so much room for an intermediate uptrend.

I was also watching VLL, because of its low P/E (good for value investors), new vigorous involvement of basura swimmer (good for 'N' in CANSLIM as explained by James), and solid sales growth. But it seem unable to get past the 5.5 hurdle. And more importantly the sell-side volume is always higher than ask. Im eager to get back to this issue at 5.05, but will probably start with one tranche on 5.15.

And then I also caught up on the last two episodes of Breaking Bad. Ive been a heavy user of IMDB since college (more than a decade ago), and this is the first time ever I've seen a 10/10 score in any film or tv episode. And it's fully deserving this perfect-ness. I cant help but blurt out an audible "wow" after I finished watching it myself, alone, in front of a desktop computer.

Others who are not following Breaking Bad might not be able to relate and be "hit" with the fullest impact of the episode. If you are not yet a Heisenberg follower, start now, even with just the 4th season. It's good to invest time in probably the best series ever in TV history (beating even Sopranos and The Wire).

Pick of the week for Week 39: MEG

Im banking on the sufficient probability that we are on an uptrend however small (could be just +5% of current PSEi level today or 6800) and however short (could be just until last part of October when anxiety of tapering will prop up its ugly head again).

If we are on an uptrend MEG must catch-up with ALI and other properties that are currently showing strength. Indeed, MEG has already jumped 18% from its 2.9ish low last August, but it's current P/E is just 11--still very cheap compared to its peers SMPH and ALI. MEG should have more juice left--Im projecting 3.75ish in the next 2 weeks, but I'll be selling starting at 3.65. 

Im also watching JGS, which was also a previous stalwart, but was clobbered by Forex losses in a recent earnings report. Now that PhP is gaining against the greenback (or greenback is weakening against all currencies in general), the real performance of JGS should come to the fore. 

It is also reasonable to expect JGS returning to at least 42 PhP, which is its level when our index was 6800. Today's price to 42 is 10%+ difference, so this issue might be good for a 'short term,' high single-digit percentage profit. But still, dont go all in, invest in tranches and average down even up to 45 if it goes down that low.

There are also "Dark Horse" picks like

ANS--should be announcing hefty dividends in the the next 4 weeks.
FDC--hasnt recovered yet, but its subsidiaries are already gaining ground.
LC--for its short-term behavior, a bet in LC is a bet in Gold increasing.
Gold, as most other highly-traded commodities, is expected to increase given the interim "taper-off"(taper removal). LC almost always follow the trend of gold, at times as immediate as the following day. If Gold jumps 3 consecutive days, for instance, LC must jump accordingly.

But FDC and ANS are illiquid. And LC is notorious for its volatility and general 'danger' (this company is almost direction-less until the future of mining in the Philippines is straightened out). Bet on any of these three if only you are that kind of person that loves 'playing,' and you would have time to monitor the price movement daily and closely. Do not hold, especially LC, for too long. 

Formulate your action plan for longer, say the next 4 weeks

My suggestion is to change trading time frame and go 4-6 weeks. Suspend for the mean time the day-trade or 3-day time period. Choose your favorite companies, perhaps those that steadily gave you profits last May-June. Remember, their earnings remained steady as they are--except the banks that lost big in trading (after foreign money pulled-out en masse) and the companies that borrowed heavily in dollars early this year.

There's a theory that the stocks that were not as affected and not too up-and-down shaky during the down turn will also become the first ones jumping in the upturn. PGOLD, JFC, AGI, are three of these stocks. I placed my bet on AGI. If you want to align with this theory, do a quick look at the graphs of all the PSEi stocks and some second liners. Find the one which did not dip too low and did not oscillate too wide.

MEG, although dumped by foreigners in July-August,was heavily bought up again yesterday. It can become the reliable stalwart again. In fact if this becomes a steady hand , the whole index would also be comfortably steady in its upturn. MEG is now moved on the first page of my watchlist, a candidate for adding-up.

AC and MER were also steadily-increasing index stocks before the QE tapering news. They also deserve some focus.

The banks are being bought up by foreign funds again. Search a bank of your own if you still have funds to allocate. Also dont forget dividend paying and those with low P/E, remember those metrics are also being looked at by fund managers.

Half of my holdings in MBT was hit at previously-set 88.5, all remaining GTCAP was also hit at 840 (previously set), as well as tranches in VLL, even before I got the chance to open FMS or BPITrade. Im suddenly 50% cash when I started checking the market. I bought one tranche in JGS and AEV to release some cash. Only AEV was the bad pick, but Im betting this will recover today.

By the way, thank you GTCAP for being a good pick of the week. Although youre not a favorite by locals, you gave me profit 3 times around.

I don't agree with the early profit taking done by our fellow locals late in the morning and late closing. (My own mistake was in not taking time opening PC at home to cancel all sell orders before the market opened). The FED tapering was the most important concern, since we were relieved by that then our market will probably be allowed its "natural" trend, which should be up given the rosy corporate earnings and braggable GDP growth. Im not privy though on the emotions of our fellow pinoys that sold big yesterday (see COL selling figures). They might be shell-shocked new investors  that want to just want exit out unscathed or recover some of the losses.

And yes, the "relief" is only good until November 1.The FOMC will meet again Oct 29-30. By the time we go back on trading again on November 4, there could be a firm announcement on the amount of tapering that will happen within the year.

But at least Ben Bernanke now  laid out more certainty. He said that tapering will not start if US unemployment wont go down below 6.5%. So that's also a number to watch out in the news for.

Now, how would we know when to sell?
1) check the trend. If still going up or above the SMA lines, let your profits run, and MACD histogram trending up or stable.
2) but i'll be comfortable selling at 12% gain. (My current MEG and MBT are already showing 8%)
3) sell when you see the  US unemployment improve to way below 6.5%
4) sell before All Saints day break.
(strong sell if there's combination of the 4 conditions)

And dont forget to read news daily. For instance, you would not know there's another bacman bad news in EDC if you dont read the news for a few minutes.  

Market Skim Through: September 19's Big Green

Our market gapped up a bewildering +~4% at opening, and settled on a still acceptable +2.81%. There are mysterious big sell-downs in AP and AEV at closing. These two Aboitizes are the only stocks that closed in the red. They should recover tomorrow.

Volume traded was big at 16 B worth. Foreign investors were net buyers at Php 2.53 billion. Only CLSA was remarkable for still coming out a net seller at 600 M +. This broker unloaded unloaded SECB, RCB, MER, EDC, in big chunks. JPMorgan continued to pull-out 100 M + (its daily average of net selling the past few days). Deutsche on the other hand turned out a big net buyer today, a huge turnaround from selling the past week. It must have been prompted by the Fed big time to return to emerging markets. Among its main interests is MEG, which increase a huge +7% as a result.

COLFinancial is a net sellers at 500 M. Many locals obviously took profit early.

And so we are now again at 6500, and the 200-SMA was breached convincingly (blue line below). Index also kissed 100-SMA (red line) at one point. Are we now bullish again on intermediate and long-term? We hope so.

Other observations:

CPG increased big again. The loyalists of this Antonio stock should now be on a profit, even before stockdivs are announced.

BPI closed at 100 but it was indecisive throug throughout the day. All the other banks are also being bought up.

Some still played the bazur TSI, although blue chips are attractive and active throughout the day.

AGI closed at doji (price unchanged) after swinging to positive in the morning and staying in negative for most of the afternoon. Is this because of the uncertainty with Emperador's valuation? If Andrew Tan priced it too high, the follow-on offering can become an embarrassing dud. TSI/EDI supposed to announce the final price yesterday but there's no disclosure.

	Stock Code	Last	Change	%Change	Value
1	VVT	12.0000	3.0000	33.33%	47,850
2	PMPC	6.5000	1.5000	30.00%	7,307,239
3	UPM	0.0120	0.0010	9.09%	2,400
4	NXT	2.1500	0.1600	8.04%	2,150
5	LMG	3.0400	0.2200	7.80%	6,510,630
6	GREEN	0.0140	0.0010	7.69%	4,278,500
7	MEG	3.4700	0.2300	7.10%	687,088,390
8	IMI	3.4000	0.2200	6.92%	1,555,180
9	SOC	1.1000	0.0700	6.80%	1,100
10	BDO	80.0000	5.0000	6.67%	1,075,091,970
11	SPC	4.8000	0.3000	6.67%	19,200
12	CPG	1.6200	0.1000	6.58%	60,043,200
13	SECB	134.6000	8.3000	6.57%	525,217,212
14	LIB	2.2200	0.1300	6.22%	22,420
15	APO	1.9700	0.1100	5.91%	205,410
16	CDC	1.0800	0.0600	5.88%	1,080
17	ALHI	23.5000	1.3000	5.86%	7,050
18	GSMI	21.8500	1.2000	5.81%	53,882,705
19	AT	12.4800	0.6800	5.76%	7,107,012
20	SUN	1.4800	0.0800	5.71%	8,337,440

Thoughts on SUN

SUN tripled its price in just 3 trading days.

(SUN a-blazing!)

In recent memory, Andrew Tan is the only one that comes to mind in terms of considering small-time investors in his decisions affecting his listed companies. Just in the past 6 months, Ang, Razon, Co, Lopez, et al, offered stocks at steep discount in overnight placements wrecking portfolios of the so-called 'investing public.' (Additional note to these CEO's: if you are part in wanting to encourage more FIlipinos to participate in equities, overnight placements at 10 - 20% discount vs. current price is not a way to do it). While AGI's own purchases in MEG and GERI were at +10% or so premium against current market price.

(The noble Dr Tan?)

What initially prompted the upsurge was the upcoming stock rights offer at 1 PhP, already-almost double of its price at the time of the disclosure. Afterwards, what stoked the price increase further were rumours of backdoor listing of first the Emperador liquor business of Tan, then Traveller's, then now McDonald's.

The other thing that's commendable in Tan and his board is their guarding the secret of this stock rights plan. Everyone (big and small investors) mostly started at equal footing. Those who diligently saw the disclosure early, and bravely decided to make the gamble deserved the profits.

But the question now is whether it is still good for risk/reward to come in an invest in SUN after the 300% increase. These are the things to consider:

1) It is indeed more expensive to do an IPO than backdoor. If there's going to be indeed a backdoor play,

• a) I dont believe it will be for Traveller's. Why go through preparing and spending for IPO (which THI is already ready but held-off only because of current volatility in the market) and then suddenly choose the backdoor route? I think somewhere somehow this is illegal if not simply unethical for Tan to do. 
• b) If it's going to be McDo or Emperador, then the price of this stock will go further, tremendously higher. I wont even dare to choose which between the two is better, will just say that 10-fold (or 10 PhP per share) is definite with either. Both companies are also displaying poise to expand aggressively, so both are fit to list in the PSE. 
• c) There's also a rumor that Stanly Ho (who is still holding positions in SUN) is planning to infuse a company in SUN. This is the one scenario I cant fully grasp. Why would Stanly compete with his son who's already front and center of the operations at MCP? Is there really so much room for so many casinoes for the Manila?

2) Or this could just be stock rights after all and nothing more.

• a) We are weeks in the Ghost Month, next to a steep downturn, and everyone is hungry for storied [and affectionally called] basura stocks. The crowd could just be ganging up on this one issue out of that urge to play one bazur. 
• b) There are only specific brokers like Sincere (what a nice name for a broker, by the way) who are buying up, who either knows the true score, or is part of another evil group who are tasked to pump and dump, like how the original BW scam (and also the hit on CAL) was done
• c) Perhaps the wily investors you see at forums are at it again to take your money and leave you holding the bag at a high price after clarity is released that there will be no backdoor play. (There's a reason why PSE is seeking out SUN daily to give reason/s for ceiling prices. There are already previous news that regulators disdain what was done in backdoor plays for CPG, COSCO, et al in the past). 
• d) Perhaps investors that are left at a high price during SUN's BW past is using this opportunity to jack-up price and exit bigger positions. This goes back to Stanly Ho who reportedly still have positions with prices at 100 PhP/share. Well, it's a long way to get to that level!
• e) Or Tan just wants to dilute the holdings of previous owners of SUN to remove all the bad rep (see below), before he grows this company further? In this case, Tan would not care what price SUN will be in after the stock rights. 

As always, there's no definite picture that can be used as a guide for our move this week. But personally, Im leaning towards Andrew Tan not doing any thing 'cheap' (oxymoron, how can you be cheap if that move can earn big?) and underhanded just to get a few billions more in paper wealth for himself (a la Lucio Co in MMI and APM). If he'll do backdoor, he should announce it within the month and not constantly have disclosures saying "we're not aware of any material transaction that would affect unusual increase in stock price eklat." If youre willing to bet, youll know the result of your bet in the near future.

I was ready to bet a tranche of 20 K PhP before ceiling was reached the first day, but what personally held me off is SUN's own history.  Even up to now, I still believe Andrew Tan shouldn't have bought BW Resources; he already has MEG and ELI (in fact, I think ELI has some overlaps in terms of vision and market with SUN). The stain on this stock that almost brought down our economy shall be forever with it. Dante Tan and Erap himself still might have positions in SUN. (if you still haven't, best to google and read up Dante Tan and BW Resources to know and cringe more).

So, therefore... as is the common advise dispensed nowadays, if you want to bet, bet only the money that you'll be comfortable losing a big chunk out of. I would say, bet the money that you're willing to lose 50% in one trading day (if youre not fast to cut). Weigh risk/reward. The one route you can still earn big in SUN is when 1 b) happens; the rest of the scenarios offer risks.

I guess, as a specific move, if you bet tomorrow, take already a 10% gain; +20% at best. You can stay days if you have time to monitor (remember, sell-downs can happen any minute during trading). And then when you see -10%, cut! Just admit youre too late.

I still dont know myself if I'll bet in SUN. Probably not, because 1) I may not have the time to look at SUN's ticker all day and 2) MBT I think is a better bet--a bet the foreigners will return in this issue this week (considering stock divs ex date and current cheap valuation).

Best of luck!

Release more of your cash!

Our ports are of green, green grass of home (but I hate that videoke staple). All my picks including AEV from last week are now showing green. MBT is the one with the highest in paper gain (in terms of absolute value) and I intend to ride MBT's uptrend until 119. (Have set this sell price already). Only SCC is red and going down; i added at 240.2 earlier and then it promptly went up to 241. So we're all good. Very good.

I also entered BEL at 5.05, since this appears to be the only Sy stocks that hasn't yet made a clear recovery, and I'm banking on the belief that our market will do a mini-cup and handle.

Of all considerations, Technical Analysis come in last to me, but the cup and handle pattern in particular is based on solid market and crowd psychology (just google about the pattern), even solid CANSLIM practitioners stand by it.  

However, for the index at this time, the pattern obviously is not clear. It is more visible in a weekly chart, but even then the volume is problematic. In a perfect cup and handle, the uptrend volume of the handle should be multiples of the volume of the small downtrend (forming the handle). In our case, we were going 4 -5 B PhP when index was going down late last week and early this week. The perfect scenario is if we had at least 10 B PhP today.

Index is also crossing short-term moving average at respectable volume. Chartists also consider this as a good buy signal. Many TA believers should come in tomorrow.

My recommendation is also to enter your bets! Chance  of market going further up is greater, than some funds setting up a bull trap.

If you need suggestions, check the pick of the week post. In addition to the ones listed there, best also to check AC and other fundamentally-solid issues that havent had a <+4% increase since Monday.

Good luck!

Pick of the Week for Week 33: Still Cash, but anticipate the upcoming earnings reports...

The low volume and possible announcement of QE tapering (although I think Bernanke will pass the burden to decide on his successor) makes me hesitate to buy new positions. The volatility is also  a hindrance to me this week, since I know I won't have time to watch price action (busy with day job).

But, sans QE tapering announcement, the volatility can offer you a good range-trading opportunity that Ive mentioned in previous post. These are good candidates for range-trading: 

1) better to bet on companies nearing earnings announcement. If you believe that MEG (announcing this week), for example, will disclose more than +20% increase in bottom-line, year-on-year, then bet.    

2) CPG seems to have strong support at 1.2; although I dont like this company (and I dont trust its top managers), I think price at 1.2 has good reward/risk opportunity. Personally, I will not enter though. 

3) if SM reaches 810, I think it's good to purchase already. If it continues to slide down, need to add at price when P/E will breach 20. 

4) MBT also still at a low price. This may  go up big, suddenly, one day this week, but banks in general are still weak (study and get a feel further before establishing a positionin MBT or any bank).

5) GERI is also exhibiting some thick bid side, with strong foreign buying. Are these funds positioning early for a surge up?
6) MER is also probable to increase this week. If it fails to surge up,  there's about +1% margin of safety offered by upcoming dividends. (In case price goes down, take the dividend as a consideration/cushion before cutting losses.)

But again, Cash is still the best position during Ghost month. Only if you have time,. anticipate the earnings announcements and give special attention to toward MEG and MER, then, probably enter if 1) price action or 2) earnings report tells you to. And do not forget the guideposts we've posted regarding range trading. (One is: do not aim for too much profit at this environment).

It could also be good to consider buying bond-based UITF's (I added in mine), and hold it for, say, 1.5 months, just in time for equities to go up again (or "hoping to go up" in September)  BPI has an bond index-based uitf with small mgt fee and no holding period. 

Update on pick of the week for Wk 32

Although it may just be random walk in the end, it is still better to study ahead, plan, and follow that plan.

Would like to write for posterity my own progress from when I posted my plan from last Monday. 

"MPI is also worth watching and betting small bets in if it flirts with 4.93 - 4.96 again." 

I entered MPI at 4.9 and 4.85, and sold all at 5.08 (posted yesterday, triggered today) for a good 4-digit gain. Not bad for 2 day's 'work.' Although, this stock might continue to go up (I should have stuck to my original sell post at 5.14), it's always good to profit in a market that is not in a clear uptrend.

"I was about to choose a pick of the week from SCC, MER, MBT, and MEG, betting that at least one will make a substantial bounce in the coming days,"

I bought MEG last week and sold early at 3.23 this week for a small coffee-budget gain, but MEG continued to go up to 3.26. Added MBT at a low 102.5 and then it recovered and now trading sideways at 106-107. Both are good moves, bottom-line.

Did not do anything with SCC and just retained my holdings in MER (although I should have added). SCC increased marginally and MER increased considerably. So all four 'pick candidates" practically did well.

My mistake was entering AEV at 46.1. This was not in the list but I thought that the conglomerate is too cheap at current price, regardless of the unimpressive  earnings report. Although price today is at 47, this will gap down on Monday. I'll closely observe AEV if I need to cut loss or cut at breakeven (damage is brokers fee). Either way no regrets, a bet's a bet. Do not enter in a market that is not in a confirmed uptrend if you want to have all your moves come out right (with greater probability).

In the end, Cash, as recommended, proved to be the safest and rightest bet. There's still a dangerous number of previous-favorites-but-now-diving-down this week. Also, imagine if one veered to a Sy stock , he/she could have lost more than 5% in a couple of days. It just happened that we intended to devote time on the market, and it's good to make picks (stocks that you studied ahead for a good entry price) and place small bets since we're focused any way. Let's just remember to continue to keep a big cash position, during a non-uptrend-market and in a ghost month at that!

Watch out also for news and updates about FED stimulus in the coming week.

Pick of the Week for Week 32: Cash; Watch on the sidelines with focus on AGI and MPI

The proverbial Ghost month has probably started; it's not worth the risk to fight it. The volume today is thin, and it might be smaller moving forward making it less ideal even for range trading. This was profitable to us in the past few weeks, but would be more risky this month. The best option is to hold on to cash in the next two weeks, and watch on the sidelines.

I was about to choose a pick of the week from SCC, MER, MBT, and MEG, betting that at least one will make a substantial bounce in the coming days, but the current swings and waves of volatility combined with the small volume trading are not ideal to dive in to... unless you have time to be fully focused on the price movement. In this case, and indeed if you itch to participate still, then make small bets on any of the four or those that you perceive as bargains  and have reached bottom (Sy stocks BEL, SMPH, SMDC, SM have dived big and should be studied).

But if a downtrend is continues, it might be more profitable to reserve your cash, so we can get the likes of AGI when it reaches very attractive  price levels at 22 - 23 range. This stock is one of the most resilient this year, a clear favorite even of foreign funds (Ive attended a Bloomberg seminar recommending it as a better-diversified conglomerate with big room for growth). Also, AGI should be announcing dividends soon.

MPI is also worth watching and betting small bets in if it flirts with 4.93 - 4.96 again. Mentioned in a previous post why MPI is solid as a conglomerate. The recent addition to the Morgan Stanley index also should also have some bearing. Some big funds are still intact and should protect the stock strongly at 4.9.

I have entered small bets last week  on AC, ALI, MEG, BDO; have cut all of them, while the negatives are small.

I have substantial positions on MBT and MER from averaging down, will probably keep all even if loss reaches -8%, due to the "margin of safety" offered by upcoming dividends.