WARNING: SPECULATIVE. Picks of the week for Wk11 is slight buys on issues with apparent foreign buying

There's a "Warning: Speculative" in the title, but aren't all stock purchases speculative? Well, this only means that I see risks here more than our normal picks of the week.

Anyway, I suggest you make a criteria to sift through # of foreign brokers buying the stock that youre eyeing, before you get in. For my own, if I see three foreign brokers like UB, JPMORGAN, and DEUTSCHE appearing together in the net buy side, inside the top 6 buyers, thats significant.

I havent peeked through that many stocks yet. but in the group that I saw, I liked the foreign buying that I see in AGI so I added (buy up) one tranche more. AGI is our pick this week, together with two speculative picks.

Not, in these two other 'extra' picks, you should enter at your risk... but arent all buy at own risk, you say?

In any case, be ready to cut loss when you suddenly see yourself holding -8% in a few days. On the other hand, when you see a profit. sell also as quickly... the extra picks are

...GMA7 and MWC! Buy a few tranches each then follow closely.

James K Nava will blog on GMA7 in Filipino, I'll do a separate post on MWC.

Market Skim Through: 10 September, GTCAP, update on pick of the week

Market went back to 6 K territory. These people should take another picture for good luck:

(especially the Tatang in the middle. His smile should bring buckets of good luck)

The percentage increase was actually nearing 2.5% in the morning , but retraced to +1.55%, because some locals were took profits in SM, SMPH, TEL immediately after lunch.

In the end, Pwede na rin (all's well/very acceptable), primarily because of the volume--at 9 B-- and more importantly--foreign investors were net buyers at Php1.08billion. I repeat: foreign investors were net buyers at 1 B.  I haven't seen this statement for months.

Ginebra San Miguel on the other hand provided entertainment. Many, including me, are scouring for news regarding the company. We knew upfront that there should be big positive news. If not for a possible sale, it's the only reason that can reverse this losing company from its continuous painful decline.

After the market closed, this was posted. And so Ginebra is entitled to some 50% royalty from LTG. How much can this be? Can another run-up happen tomorrow because of this? Can Ginebra get the money tomorrow from Tanduay?

	Stock Code	Last	Change	%Change	Value
1	GSMI	20.8000	3.2800	18.72%	45,454,621
2	ATN	1.1000	0.1000	10.00%	115,500
3	2GO	1.7000	0.1500	9.68%	6,700
4	ECP	2.8200	0.2400	9.30%	25,000
5	RLT	0.4500	0.0350	8.43%	900,000
6	MG	0.3900	0.0300	8.33%	19,500
7	BKD	1.1000	0.0800	7.84%	211,150
8	IMI	1.9900	0.1100	5.85%	39,850
9	SPH	1.9500	0.1000	5.41%	89,700
10	GTCAP	800.0000	35.0000	4.58%	222,252,830
11	DAVIN	1.0600	0.0400	3.92%	1,005,440
12	BLOOM	11.0000	0.4000	3.77%	125,374,110
13	PAL	5.7000	0.2000	3.64%	543,309
14	CLOUD	6.2000	0.2000	3.33%	37,420
15	WEB	11.4000	0.3600	3.26%	26,794,756
16	ABS	33.5500	1.0500	3.23%	61,720
17	MHC	0.6400	0.0200	3.23%	140,430
18	CPG	1.3800	0.0400	2.99%	20,468,230
19	CHIB	55.5000	1.6000	2.97%	3,708,289
20	SM	717.5000	18.5000	2.65%	448,480,880

My own entry in GTCAP was fortuitous. I was preparing more for the PSEi adjustment as explained in my pick of the week, but I was rewarded with an immediate 4% paper gain instead due the general positive sentiment. Ive re-set my sell to 830 for GTCAP. 

I also bought in a trance with MPI, seeing that virtually just one single broker is bringing it down--ATR (which in turn one of the big buyers in GTCAP). If not for ATR, this stock should have had at least +1.5%. Im betting it would give me at least 3.5% on or before Friday.

VLL is still a stock to watch (see desired entry price in previous post). And GMA7... volume is just too low to get in. Baka hindi na.  

If we see another round of 1 B foreign buying Wednesday until Friday, Im willing to bet that we'll go back to 7200 again within the year.

There is however a FED meeting next week. This is the one thing that can prompt me to sell, regardless how confident I am of my holdings. 

Pick of the week for Week 37: GTCAP hopefully at 750; observe VLL; GMA7 for divs???

GTCAP is the pick of the week due to the index adjustment favoring this stock. As mentioned here, Im hoping to re-enter at 750 (which served as strong support before). If not, I might enter at any-price-below-800 on Thursday.

I will also be closely watching VLL. It should announce divs soon, and would easily make 5.5 after.

GMA7 might also announce hefty divs soon, giving whoever is lucky enough to buy on the same day an instant +4%. (ABS, no chance, since it is tied up with a covenant of no-dividend higher-than-previously-set with its creditors). There is a question mark though since it is lightly-traded. GMA's price is at currently at its previous lowest/strongest support, furthermore at a cheap 14 forward P/E. But at this volume, it can still go further down. So I guess, it's whether you are willing to hold this stock until the rosy months of Dec - Feb, in case it goes further down after you buy.

All these picks are made, again, on the backdrop of volatility and low volume. Yes, we are still at that environment where +5% is heaven. Volume is low and there are up-and-down tussles even in solid companies. The aim is to just benefit the volatility, sell in a few days. In fact it is better to just stay out.

Our kinds who still participate in these conditions are probably just after that fulfilment and entertainment in getting +3-5% in days, rather than solid assured portfolio growth. For this purpose, GTCAP, VLL, GMA7 could be good picks (for short-term only) this week.

Lastly, as we've been saying since June, never all-in.

p.s. The Consunjis and the Aboitizes are known to defend their stock. I was also about to choose among DMC, AEV, AP, and SCC to take advantage of their buying. But all four already have significant increases yesterday. They might have bought already (wait for the disclosure), there might not be a quick +3% in the coming days.

Manood ng OTJ! Panalo!

 Nagberde nga noong biyernes pero medyo mahina. Hindi ko nabenta ang binili kong SMPH, AEV, at AC na nagsalimbayan ang taas-baba ng presyo buong araw.

Gayunpaman, napakaigi pa rin ng aking Biyernes dahil sa pelikulang OTJ na sa wakas ay nagkaoras panoorin sa Trinoma.

Panalo ang pelikula!

Mahusay si Joel Torre. Napakahusay!

Swak na swak ang pagkakapili sa mamang ito para gumanap kay Tatang Maghari. 

Si Gerald Anderson naman, bagamat sobra ang gigil sa ilang eksena, pasa na rin ang arte. Si Piolo ay talentado naman pero masyado lang maganda. Dapat ginupitan man lang nang mas ordinaryo at pinabaho, pinalagkit, at pinapawis nang onte lalo sa mga barilan at yong mga eksena sa Tondo. Sa mga nagagawi sa mga looban maiintindihan ito. Nasa bungad ka pa lang sa estero, nanlalagkit ka na. Kaya nga di nagkakasakit ang mga bata doon. 

At wala kang masasabi sa supporting cast--mula kila Rosanna Roces, Angel Aquino, Mon Confiado--nakuha nila ang kailangang emosyon o empathy sa bawat segundong nasa screen sila. Si Vivian Velez halimbawa, na gamit lang ang kuko at cutix sa ilang frame, ay naiarte na ang dapat nyang iarteng malupit pero propesyunal na kontratista. Isa pa, sa selpon, sabi ni Vivian "Hindi pwede yan, Tatang..." Kung boss mo ito sa kompanya, at inutusan kang pagandahin pa ang palamuting pie-chart sa report mo, aba, baka nilagyan mo pa ng animation at sound! 

Ang mukhang wala lang sa lugar, at mukhang isiningit lang, ay yaong babaeng syota ni Gerald na naghubad. Pero dagdag na tiket na rin siguro kapag may boobs ang pelikula.  

Hindi predictable ang latag ng istorya. Hindi predictable ang ending. Kudos kay Michiko Yamamoto na sumulat din ng magagandang pelikulang Endo, Maximo Oliveros, Zombadings. Nagsisimula talaga siguro ang ganda ng pelikula sa solidong iskrip.

Hindi rin i-ni-spoonfeed ang mga manonood. Angganda non, irespeto ang talino naman ng manonood na pinoy. Nakibakas sa budget ang Star Cinema, pero hindi sangkot sina Cathy Garcia-Molina, Laurenti Dyogi, at iba pang kulokoy ng Dos na walang ibang alam gawin kundi paulit-ulit na pelikulang kapos, butas-butas ang plot, na pati ang titulo ay kinatatamaran nang pag-isipan (kinukuha na lang sa kanta). Maigi na wala silang input, maski ipinaubaya nila ang kanilang mga artista. Mukhang hinayaan ang mga indie pipol na dumiskarte, kaya maigi ang kinalabasan. 

Malinis at pulido na ang pagkakailaw, pagakakaispat, at pagkakakuha (cinematography). Mukhang hindi lang iisang kamera ang ginamit sa ilang eksena. Ginastusan s'ya sa mga dapat pagkagastusang mga tagpo.  

Ang disenyo ng produksyon ay dinaig pa ang Bourne ni Renner na Hollywood Movie, na mas malaki ang badyet, subalit di naman sinamantalang gamitin ang ganda/pangit at tigas ('grit') ng Kamaynilaan. Samantalang si Matti sinimulan pelikula sa pista ng San Juan (basaan ng tubig) sa makulay na Quiapo, dinaanan ang dilim ng mga eskinita sa Tondo, ang interyor ng mga bahay sa pinagtagpi-tagi sa mga estero at looban, at buong tapang ding ginamit ang munisipyo ng Maynila (akalain mong di pa pala tuluyang limot ang Arroceros). Pati ang istasyon ng LRT sa Doroteo Jose at Carriedo (at ang tunog ng pagsasara ng pintuan ng tren) ay ekpertong nagamit sa mga nakakakabang eksena. Naalala ko tuloy ang adbentyurs ko noon sa pagpasok sa isang hayskul, at buhay-buhay sa Sta Cruz. 

Ang galaw ng kamera ay dinamiko. Bagamat kitang-kitang kopya ang sisteng ito mula kina PT Anderson, Brian de Palma, at Wes Anderson, iba pa rin ang dating dahil sa loob ng munti, sa dilim ng Escolta, sa malibag na Hospital ng Maynila ang background. 

Suportahan natin ang OTJ, mga bok, para naman mamuhunan na rin ang ABS at GMA7 sa mga ganitong klaseng pelikula na pwede na ieksport sa ibang bansa. Hindi simpleng aksyon, kakaiba, solido, hindi boring. Kayang-kaya naman pala natin gumawa ng ganito maski patay na sila Brocka at Bernal. 

Ganito ang produkto, Dos at Siyete. Ito ang produktong magpapakita ng husay natin, makakakontribyut pa kayo sa GDP ng Pinas pag nagkataon.

Manood ng OTJ! Ngayon na, bok!

Sino si Julie Ann San Jose? Ano ang pinagagagawa ng GMA7?

Sino si Julie Ann San Jose? Bakit may isang buong slide na naka-laan tungkols sa kanya sa Investors Briefing ng GMA7?

Platinum Record? Bakit hindi ko siya kilala? Hindi kaya nagmumukha namang desperado ang Kapuso network nyan na magkaroon ng pantapat kay Sarah Geronimo? (Hanggang ngayon lubos pa rin siguro ang pagsisisi ng siyete sa pagbitiw nila sa talento ni Sarah).

Maganda naman pala si Julie Ann:

(clamshell studio lighting na kuha ni Julie Ann, pero hindi pa rin ako nakakarinig ng kanta nya)

(nagpapicture sa malayong kaparangan ng Eastwood si Julie Ann)

Subalit ayon sa kanyang wikipedia entry, parte pala siya ng SOP, Party Pilipinas na lahat nasibak na ngayon. Bakit nga ba hindi makagawa ng mahusay na pang-Linggong kantahan at sayawan? Ibalik nyo na lang kaya ang Bellestar at Vicor Dancers ni Kuya Germs, para nakakatawa, man lamang

Ang hindi kasi nakakaaliw ay ang bumabang kita ng Siyete sa second quarter 2013 kumpara sa 2012.

Nakakadismaya lalo ito kapag inisip na dapat tumabo pa sila sa patalastas noong papasok ang eleksyon. Hhhhmn GMA7. Malamang matagal na matutulog ang stock nito sa kasalukuyan nyang range.

Bagamat kung eentrada kayo ngayon, makakaasa sa mga 2% na dibidendo--dagdag sa biniyaya noong Marso--bago matapos ang taon. Ito naman kasi ang lamang ng siyete sa dos. Ang dos tali sa kasunduan (sa mga pinagkakautangan ng mga Lopez) na hindi basta-basta makakapagdeklara ng dibidendong malaki-laki.

Pero sa Kapuso, bigyang prayoridad na ninyo please ang mga writers. Sila ang magbibigay ng content. At... take risks, ika nga. Madali din naman kayo sumibak ng shows kapag pumalpak. Pakisuportahan na rin ang mga indie films. Maganda raw iyong Sana Dati.