Pick of the week for Wk 16 is to accumulate your favorites; give a special eye on banks

I was about to post yesterday LRI as the pick of the week because of the merger news, but because of an early morning meeting, I wasn't able to go online even to open brokerage and post a market opening buy (to add up early). LRI since flew away. Im selling current position--entered into months ago--in LRI at +20%..

I suggest you already position on other previously-good performing stocks. Check their upsurges during the bull run last year. These are my off-the-cuff suggestions:

--GTCAP still has a very probable +5% in short-term.

--then the banks BPI and MBT still have big room to increase, until before BSP announce an interest rate increase (you must watch out for news on this; we must exit some positions before they do the announcement and then just buy again below. bsp has no choice but to increase interest rates because the increase in inflation is also imminent at this time).

--BEL is a good stock to accumulate until Q4 when they open their casino and a surge will occur (if you wait that long, the price might already be too high). See the trend of BLOOM months before they opened Solaire in 2013.

--TA has room until it reaches another resistance at 2.18 - 2.23

But these are not strong recos at this point. I suggest you still look around. Look around on your own. Research. Check history, previous price movements of specific stocks, news, committed milestones. For power companies, for exampl, check when plants and increases in capacity are planned to happen.

For me--Im still maintaining a good cash position just in case AGI, MEG, SCC, or PGOLD temporarily goes on sale. I have already GTM buy points set for these stocks.

Pick of the Week for Wk12 is FLI (and buy a bit of TA if it does another short handle)

I'd like to speculate a bit this week, and so I added on my existing position in FLI. I saw some foreign accumulation recently and thought that it has gone sideways long enough. FLI has good below-10 valuation, it is among the properties that hasnt gone up much yet, and its projects have a clear path and sched, their mall and hotel in Albang are both doing well, their land bank at that part of Manila is uneatable, BUT... this at best is still a very risky hunch-based bet more than based any deeper analysis. The stock is not trading as high a volume as MEG (it can be brought down any time by a big fund--local or foreign), it's not a 'visible' in terms of press releases compared to A Tan stocks, it failed to break resistances several times in the past, it's also not nearing a div announcement (this usually pays in June).

[In fact, if you chose to place your bet in SMC, you could have achieved much much higher gain upfront. I just decided last year to place zero money with RSA, until his borrowing stops to a level in balance with SMC's earnings growth].

Also, TA might go down to 2.0 before it goes up again. Im going to add to my existing position in TA, at that level, partly for the purpose of releasing some cash. My faith in this company presided by Dean Viray remains.

Pick of the Week updates

I'll make it a practice to review my picks 4 weeks back always, since Ive made it a point since Q4 last year to stay with my picks normally at a month's horizon.

It's nearing harvest time for the picks of the weeks.
--in wk8 (GTCAP)... Im at 5% now, will be considering to sell at 8% tops.
--wks 9 and 10 (TEL)... on top of the hefty dividends in PLDT, we might get some cherry on top, probably +3% in the coming few days.
--wk 7's MBT, where I profited already (with MEG) substantially, I still have some position remaining in my nimbler port at +4%. We'll probably sell all at +5%. (My bigger port still has substantial MBT, remnants of last year, at -2%).
--Wk 11, the dividend-paying-company-nearing-exdate-announcement that I chose is MER. It is showing +1.97% for me today, but I placed only a small bet. I'll sell at +4 or 5%.

These target sell prices are based on the premise that PSEI will correct again once it reached 6650. As most retail investors, Im hoping that the PSEi will have momentum until 6800 in a few days; after all, it's rare to see a net foreign selling day since beginning Feb. But Im already willing to take some profit at 6600-6700.

Good luck with the possible jump up in the next few days.

Pick of the week for Wk11 is a dividend-payer soon to announce divs

Below is the list of high divs payer taken from INDO's thread in SMP: 

You have to check which one historically is paying out in March but hasn't announced yet. (TEL is out since it announced already). There should be a very probable +3% in this stock (for short-term gain).

Pick of the Week for Wk 9 is TEL

(I still remember the 3 pesos for 3 minutes call in your nearest sari-sari stores)

Nothing in the PSE is for certain. There's one guru in the famous forum which during Q3 last year, every time when he said that a stock will increase for sure, the following day it came tumbling down. It might be him who was pushing it down (He was recommending, then selling on rally).

I have a substantial position in TEL that was accumulated since last year, but I do not intend to recommend and dump bluntly. This bet was done based on it high-dividend policy of PLDT as a telecom, and this div's expected announcement early March. Im relying on the same high div amount (special+regular) and the ex-date sched to make it probable for this stock to give me at least a 5-8% surge within the next 3 weeks.

If you bet now, youll be at my same entry price. I made most of these bets earlier this year, thinking that the wily short-term investors will start accumulating January. It didnt happen almost three months forward. If still nothing happens even after Divs announcement, there must be something wrong with the company... which, in turn, is improbable. If you relate it to your home needs, PLDT is still the most reliable broadband provider compared to the baloneys that sky and glo offer. And then on a bigger macro picture, call centers must be depending on TEL a lot currently and in the future.

posted this new handset to illustrate the advance in technology, but I think this particular set is gimmicky as most others--like celebrity-texting eklat--launched by SMART. Well you can not make all your mktg managers topnotch.  

TEL is on a slow crawl up compared to its other fundamentally-ok index peers. But we have also observed some foreign accumulation recently. I wouldn't speculate any more if these funds are for long term this time around, suffice it to say that I wont start dispose until I get to +5-8% profit range.

Pick of the week for Wk5: stand by for hoped-for short term fall

I'll obviously be biased by my move the past few days. Again, I unloaded all of my DNL and BDO, substantial of MEG and TA, and some MBT, hoping these will 'cool-off' a bit before I reenter.

So the pick of the week is to observe these five to go lower by 25% of their recent increases. Most of them jumped by at ~15%, so I would like to see them go down by  3.75%-5% from their peaks or before  I enter again.

As usual, since we are not yet in a clear general uptrend (for the market overall), our entries will be in minimum tranches.

Pick of the week for Wk 49: TEL

If you've already sold and took the gains from MBT, the safest thing to do is stay with cash and wait for an uptrend indicator (check moving averages) before getting in.

The next safest move is to wait for good buy prices on MEG and other 'reliable' favorites. (Remember: they are "reliable" because the company is fundamentally sound).

But if you are really eager to enter some position, buy TEL.

It's current forward P/E is just 15, significantly below 18 P/E of PSE index. The past 12 months, it was unusual for TEL to have market valuation below index. Also, its only competitor GLO is already trading at 21.5 P/E. Either TEL will catch up in short term or it will be the among the first stock to jump up the moment we are on a general uptrend. (Probability-wise, an uptrend must happen within the year or there is really another debilitating bad news for our country).

On top of these positive factors, as mentioned before, TEL is paying out 4-6% dividend annually. Above any time deposit rate from any bank. This offers margin of safety, even if your disposition is a trader rather than an investor.

Pick of the Week for Wk 47: MEG and choose one among the Top 3 banks.

If you've unloaded MEG two weeks ago the moment you saw that it is having a hard time push itself to 3.9, or you noticed that a strong force is preventing it to blow past 4 PhP again, you are lucky! Now is the time to buy again. The company just reported a solid 15% net income increase and its landbank remains very competitive vs SMPH and ALI. And its P/E remains at a very undervalued 11 vs. the two peers. MEG should attempt to go past 3.9 again in 4 weeks and should breach 4 within the year.

My own unloading two weeks ago was prompted by it oversold status at RSI. Observing the chart the past 12 months, it dips every time it goes to oversold status. Also, a factor that added in favor of unloading is that the overall market is still shaky. Even attempted uptrend during the day cant seem to go full blown. There are parties (local and foreign) probably eager to exit specific stocks the moment they see the chance.

I believe it's also time to buy banks that tumbled down a bit last week. Read up and choose between BPI, BDO, and MBT. At worse, you might be forced to hold until March if it does not increase before year end.

Paksyet Wow!

Whattasurprise, Seahawks! Iwinawagayway ang bandila na parang may giyera!

Giyera na! Giyerahin na ang bagyo! Giyerahin na ang mga ungas sa munisipyo!

Thank you, Seahawks! Im now a fan! On to the Superbowl, Seahawks!

Ano ba'ng stocks ang relevant sa Seattle Seahawaks at matayaan bukas! Ibon! Phoenix! PNX! PNX!

Howza!

Hulaan na lang nang tatayaan!

Pick of the week for Week 45 : TA TEL, and look out for buy-again points in GTCAP, SCC, MEG, AGI, JGS, and AEV

TA has good momentum currently and the sell volume is getting thinner and thinner since late last week after it surged up. Im heavy on TA; I was able to get back to my previous big position after I sold near half of holdings at its 2.8 peak months ago. Even though TA was not in my pick of the week list, I just bought tranches gradually when it was hovering at 2.1 - 2.2. This was done on faith given TA's growth potential, the management of the company, and its clear plans. Any one can read up on the plants and windmills under development, as well as Dean Viray's existing clout in the industry (including regulators). Lastly, Ive never lost yet a trade in TA and it gave me consistent hefty profits since to start of the year, so to support the stock's price at 2.1 can be sheer returning debt of gratitude (utang na loob) on my part :-) Further, Im still expecting gains on the property divs for Trans-asia Petroleum.

I was not expecting TEL to go back to below 2900, more so to go back insider its previous strong support at 2800-2830 range. This is always a safe stock to accumulate given its dividend yield. Furthermore, its current P/E is 15.8 while GLO is already at 21. I think the market is mis-pricing TEL and we should take advantage of the opportunity handed to us. Im ready to just add and add tranches even if TEL goes down to 2500. After adding earlier today, I now hold 5 tranches of TEL in my two ports (two brokers) combined.

Both TA and TEL I believe should gain +10% within this month, but I'll be starting to sell at +8% vs. their current price, considering that we are still not in a confirmed overall uptrend.

One should also keep an eye on stocks that may offer good reentry points within the week. MEG I think is a buy-again/add at 3.69, AGI at 25.30, JGS at 41.50, and AEV at 49. I have already set GTM buys myself at these levels. Part of the wishlist is also for solid favorites (but not holding currently) GTCAP to go back to 803 and SCC to 240ish before we enter 2014, but these could be far fetched.

Late Pick of the Week: Look for higher lows in JGS, MBT, MEG, but if you're eager to position now, choose TEL

I knew I have time to monitor the market this week; there is valuable time to spend to hunt for short terms gains, so I disposed some green in MBT, MEG, AGI, and AEV to raise cash. I expect that sentiments of some locals will be to dispose at our current 6600 levels. Some of our countrymen who were jittered before are probably exiting at near breakeven, so it's time to dispose some green and wait for them to dip again by at least 3%--better at minus 5%--to re-take similar position size.

For example, I disposed a huge chunk of MEG at 3.91, the moment that I saw that 1) the stock is already oversold, and 2) it's too weak to even break 3.95. And so, 3.91 less 5% is 3.71. Im waiting since then to enter some at 3.71, add another position at 3.70, and then a huge buy position at 3.68. I still haven't been blessed with shares at these levels, but am waiting. If MEG continued strongly at this very high RSI. I still have 20% of my original position. I just have to live with my bet that it's more probable for MEG to cool off a bit and be below oversold levels.  

Same applies with AEV, AGI, and MBT... I disposed all or huge chunks of these stocks, and now Im waiting for their higher lows to materialize before getting in again (first reentry at -3%, ideal at -5%).

But since I wanted to take some new positions and not be holding too much cash, I took positions in TEL and DMPL as well. I think TEL is undervalued at this time, and will perform some +5% in short term. Why? 

1) its forward P/E is 16, while its only competitor GLO is trading at 23 - 30 P/E. I know that the Ayala's enjoy some premium over competitors because of their perceived better managers, but that disprity is just too much. 

2) the BPO industry is experiencing tremendous growth and TEL should be one of the main beneficiaries  

3) PLDT's DSL is way faster than those stupid Tattoos and mobile broadband scams.
4) If youre caught ipit even at -10%, there's still some margin of safety. TEL always pay hefty divs to make up for it.

DMPL I placed a small position in because 1) its current price is below its current at SGX, 2) I feel that the market hasnt fully taken in the impact of the acquisition of the US Del Monte business. This makes for some good reading regarding DMPL:

http://research.maybank-ib.com/pdf/document/Del_Monte_141013c_5174.pdf

Besides that, Christmas is nearing. We're approaching that time for Buko and Fruit Salads. That would have some Del Monte Fruit Cocktails by default.

Again, these picks of the week have time frame of at least four weeks. It's time to revise your portfolios for intermediate and long term and prepare for the surge until March.

Thank you, MEG and JGS!

Writing a short post just to gloat about these two picks that were on point and jumped within the 30-day period that Ive set.

Ive sold some MEG at 3.65 as previously decided, and some JGS at 42. Im still holding a substantial half of each though, given that they are still showing strength. Ive set next sell points for MEG at 3.79 and 3.89; while none yet for the remaining JGS, since this conglomerate is releasing good news left and right and peso appears strengthening (they will declare forex gains if peso comes back to 40 PhP).

There was also some hefty gain from ANS, which I sold at 6.89, 6.99 and 7.1. I wish I could have added more when it was hovering at 6.5, and many of us in SMP was almost 100% sure that it is going to announce a hefty devs, but it was the low volume trading that held me off. In any case, it was a good ~ 8% average gain.  Thank you, too, Andres. (Lorna Kapunan, abandon Napoles please).

Only FDC and LC appear to be failed (minor and speculative) picks. Im still holding two tranches of LC at -6% loss (Im ready to cut loss here at -15%, but it never reached that yet). I added one tranche of FDC at 4 (buy was set last night). I believe it should go up given that subsidiary FLI is going up.

Week 41 was a good week, while Im mostly out and cant follow the action.

Still have no time to research for a good pick. Will do that again on Sunday.

Late Pick of the Week for Week 40: still MEG and watch the banks, especially MBT and BDO

Was out on several days for a teambuilding, was not able to actively participate in the market, was not able to make a pick of the week. And I became aware just now that finally the long-awaited Moody's upgrade was announced! But was also surprised that the increase after the lunchtime press release is just a measly +0.4%, and that the foreigners are still net sellers at this time. These facts, in combo, are surprising indeed.

It seems that the standoff between the Lower House and White House in the US bears more impact to us more than any good news. And October 17 seems to be the critical date to watch. This is the day when the US begins to default on some payables, if they dont get their act together. Imagine the gravity of this 'milestone' if ever it happens.

Since I will also be out tomorrow afternoon until Thursday (I dont know if James can post), and the only solution in my case is to be cautious. I'll still maintain my cash position, probably at minimum 25%, and will only place bets on MEG (which appears to be on the path of improvement again). I will also add a bit to existing green position MBT, which went down from 91 to 84, despite Moody's and other analysts singling out the strength of the bank and its current cheap valuation. BDO closed at a thick bid volume, this is almost guaranteed to be green tomorrow.

Others are recommending releasing all cash--If you do this, it will be a bet on the one good news. It's sound to do if you have time to follow price movement, so you will get have a better chance to make the right decision--whether it's time to cut loss or take profit. It's in knowing when either decision is needed.

***

I dont have time to fully research VLL, JGS, GTCAP, AGI, and other 'solid' non-bazur favorites of recent weeks. But if the Moody's upgrade 'overpowers' negative sentiment, they should be among the stocks that join the upward trend.

Include AC in this fray. It is almost assured to go back to 650 level if market really begins to go upward because of Moody's.

Good luck!

Pick of the week for week 38: Still GTCAP

Im making my pick of the week one day early because this recommendation is good only until Wednesday (a day before Bernanke's presscon).

The pick is still GTCAP, banking on the probable scenario that not all funds anchored to the PSEi has shifted yet, and they will only do it in the coming days. Index inclusion can cause a stock to jump anywhere between 2 to 8% on the day of the index change itself. My own sell point is 830, but if price jump shows weakness until Wednesday, Im ok at 815ish.

Or, if the opposite happens--say, there's a sell down, for some reason like early jitters due to QE tapering-- and GTCAP goes down even to 750 or 700 again, it is still safe to hold. It's a fundamentally sound company. These solid are earnings surprises of the firm the past three periods:

and projected growth.

Take note that all of GTCAP's subsidiaries are growing, except for GT Power which might wait until 2015 for some of its plants to be on line.  

Toyota, have interesting lineup of new models coming. And don't forgetL one of the things that enriched ofw families buy is a car--and Innovas, Vios, et al are all safe bets for them.

Federal land, AXA, and especially MBT are also showing good earnings increases.

So, it's safe to be 'ipit' for a few weeks if it comes to that. Even if GTCAP is not a stock with 'brand' like Ayala, it's a solid and growing conglomerate.

Im also about to include MBT again as additional pick of the week, because it was showing strength late last week. However, its stock divs payment date is tomorrow. And many are inclined to dispose holdings within the week when they receive stockdivs. Since many will be aiming to increase cash position (to prepare for Thursday FED presscon), they also might be disposing these perceived 'additional stocks' first, .

Market Skim Through: 10 September, GTCAP, update on pick of the week

Market went back to 6 K territory. These people should take another picture for good luck:

(especially the Tatang in the middle. His smile should bring buckets of good luck)

The percentage increase was actually nearing 2.5% in the morning , but retraced to +1.55%, because some locals were took profits in SM, SMPH, TEL immediately after lunch.

In the end, Pwede na rin (all's well/very acceptable), primarily because of the volume--at 9 B-- and more importantly--foreign investors were net buyers at Php1.08billion. I repeat: foreign investors were net buyers at 1 B.  I haven't seen this statement for months.

Ginebra San Miguel on the other hand provided entertainment. Many, including me, are scouring for news regarding the company. We knew upfront that there should be big positive news. If not for a possible sale, it's the only reason that can reverse this losing company from its continuous painful decline.

After the market closed, this was posted. And so Ginebra is entitled to some 50% royalty from LTG. How much can this be? Can another run-up happen tomorrow because of this? Can Ginebra get the money tomorrow from Tanduay?

	Stock Code	Last	Change	%Change	Value
1	GSMI	20.8000	3.2800	18.72%	45,454,621
2	ATN	1.1000	0.1000	10.00%	115,500
3	2GO	1.7000	0.1500	9.68%	6,700
4	ECP	2.8200	0.2400	9.30%	25,000
5	RLT	0.4500	0.0350	8.43%	900,000
6	MG	0.3900	0.0300	8.33%	19,500
7	BKD	1.1000	0.0800	7.84%	211,150
8	IMI	1.9900	0.1100	5.85%	39,850
9	SPH	1.9500	0.1000	5.41%	89,700
10	GTCAP	800.0000	35.0000	4.58%	222,252,830
11	DAVIN	1.0600	0.0400	3.92%	1,005,440
12	BLOOM	11.0000	0.4000	3.77%	125,374,110
13	PAL	5.7000	0.2000	3.64%	543,309
14	CLOUD	6.2000	0.2000	3.33%	37,420
15	WEB	11.4000	0.3600	3.26%	26,794,756
16	ABS	33.5500	1.0500	3.23%	61,720
17	MHC	0.6400	0.0200	3.23%	140,430
18	CPG	1.3800	0.0400	2.99%	20,468,230
19	CHIB	55.5000	1.6000	2.97%	3,708,289
20	SM	717.5000	18.5000	2.65%	448,480,880

My own entry in GTCAP was fortuitous. I was preparing more for the PSEi adjustment as explained in my pick of the week, but I was rewarded with an immediate 4% paper gain instead due the general positive sentiment. Ive re-set my sell to 830 for GTCAP. 

I also bought in a trance with MPI, seeing that virtually just one single broker is bringing it down--ATR (which in turn one of the big buyers in GTCAP). If not for ATR, this stock should have had at least +1.5%. Im betting it would give me at least 3.5% on or before Friday.

VLL is still a stock to watch (see desired entry price in previous post). And GMA7... volume is just too low to get in. Baka hindi na.  

If we see another round of 1 B foreign buying Wednesday until Friday, Im willing to bet that we'll go back to 7200 again within the year.

There is however a FED meeting next week. This is the one thing that can prompt me to sell, regardless how confident I am of my holdings.