Pick of the week for Week 48: MBT, but stay out of PSE in general

MBT is oversold without significant reason (based on fundamentals). I think there is going to be  a significant bounce in this stock in the coming 14 days. The 8 P/E is also too good to pass up.

But in general, we should stay on the sidelines. Foreign funds wanting to exit our market is too obvious, too visible. Just open one blue chip and observe. They want to unload and prepare cash for elsewhere.

Relax and watch your favorite solid stocks become bargains

I don't know why I'm more relaxed with this round of sell down compared to the one that happened in June. Is it because there's greater comfort in the greater probability that this is the last downtrend before we get back to our steady increase? We're not in a recession, remittances will pour in, our GDP will recover, even the donations for the provinces that was hit by Haiyan should prop up the industries in the Vismin to its feet.

It's important now to observe our solid favorites and get in with conviction when we know it's undervalued. GTCAP at 750 is a buy. TEL at 2600 is a buy. RLC will bounce back upwards from 19, in all probability, AGI at 23 is a strong buy, PGOLD at 38 is an invitation. MBT at this time is undervalued, I already added. It's time to check P/E's, graphs (should be on the lookout especially on previous strong supports), and realign portfolio. Cut-loss on the weak, speculative stocks (that was fun to play with before) and transfer money to solid ones.

Ive cut severely on EDC, FGEN, some small LC, MWC, and already made transfers to MBT, MEG, TEL, et al. It's good to have fewer stocks to observe at this time, regardless is you have just a 5-digit budget or have millions being played.

Relax, read up, choose your watchlist, bet based on how solid you think the company is. This foreign selling will stop in short term, time to hunt for bargains now.

Re-group!

Taper news hit us again.

The discipline to keep a substantial cash position served us well, but don't buy yet at this time. We dont know how deep will the slump be. We might see us again at 5900.

And monitor a few fundamentally-good stocks only. They might be bargains at this time. Many are even severely oversold without any reason other than foreign funds wanting to exit the PSE. We should buy the fundamentally-sound and currently-cheap MEG, MBT, et al, after they've done their unloading

Good luck.

Re-group?

Either Haiyan is still wreaking fresh havoc (this time in our stock market) or this is a temporary sell-down. If we slump back to sub-6000, this will be the first time in recent memory local equities will not have that Christmas increase, and 2013 will turn out of the worse years of the stock market.

One consolation from yesterday's big loss is that the volume is small. This important fact urged me to add to MEG, reenter AGI and GTCAP, and deplete some more cash position.The overall downtrend also should change our watchlist and short-term strategy.

I suggest we go back to short-term trading on some stocks. RLC is known to bounce strong from 20 - 21.5 range, PGOLD, Im waiting to touch below 40.

BUT, again, already already have pets for longer term (say until March).  Look for 15+% earnings growth and/or dividend-paying first liners. MEG, AGI, TEL, etc.

What hurt me most is TA, which was a pick of the week, but was debilitated by negative news. This is a puzzle--I might need to average down more and then sell some on rallies to go back to a decent cash position %. 

Pick of the Week for Wk 47: MEG and choose one among the Top 3 banks.

If you've unloaded MEG two weeks ago the moment you saw that it is having a hard time push itself to 3.9, or you noticed that a strong force is preventing it to blow past 4 PhP again, you are lucky! Now is the time to buy again. The company just reported a solid 15% net income increase and its landbank remains very competitive vs SMPH and ALI. And its P/E remains at a very undervalued 11 vs. the two peers. MEG should attempt to go past 3.9 again in 4 weeks and should breach 4 within the year.

My own unloading two weeks ago was prompted by it oversold status at RSI. Observing the chart the past 12 months, it dips every time it goes to oversold status. Also, a factor that added in favor of unloading is that the overall market is still shaky. Even attempted uptrend during the day cant seem to go full blown. There are parties (local and foreign) probably eager to exit specific stocks the moment they see the chance.

I believe it's also time to buy banks that tumbled down a bit last week. Read up and choose between BPI, BDO, and MBT. At worse, you might be forced to hold until March if it does not increase before year end.

Paksyet Wow!

Whattasurprise, Seahawks! Iwinawagayway ang bandila na parang may giyera!

Giyera na! Giyerahin na ang bagyo! Giyerahin na ang mga ungas sa munisipyo!

Thank you, Seahawks! Im now a fan! On to the Superbowl, Seahawks!

Ano ba'ng stocks ang relevant sa Seattle Seahawaks at matayaan bukas! Ibon! Phoenix! PNX! PNX!

Howza!

Hulaan na lang nang tatayaan!

Berde tayo ngayon, mga katoto

Wala nang ma kaklaro pa sa sinabi dito ni Kumareng Yellen.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-13/yellen-says-economy-performing-far-short-of-potential.html

Babalik na tayo sa 6500.

Im betting my pwet on dat.

Bili-bili na nang mga konglomereyt na binitawan kamakailan. Ako, FDC ang binenta ko. Baka bumili ngayon ng AC, AGI, o GTCAP.

***

Nakikiramay nga pala kami sa mga kapatid sa Samar, Leyte, Busuanga, Cebu. Magdoneyt tayo nang konti mula sa sweldo natin. Padayon!

Anderson Cooper, the Alaska Boy, report ka naman dyan ng mga gudtym gud things. Napansin mo na ba ang masayahin naming disposisyon? Ang aming mga welcoming na ngiti maski naghihirap na?

No pick of the week for Week 46

All stocks will be hit. We also have to bear the temporary setback.

I will also mostly stay put with what portfolio I have right now, if not sell to increase cash position. Other than that, I'll mostly ignore whatever happens to PSE this week.

Donate some of your gains for the year. Choose an organization with track record of integrity to donate to. And it's always better to donate anonymously.

We still have roofs over our head. Many of our countrymen lost theirs last Friday.

Our hearts go out to Tacloban and everyone hit by Haiyan.

I'm already seeing cynical comments about how it's becoming inane and tiring to repeat over and over again how people failed preparing for disaster, while there was advanced warning of catastrophe from left and right, from local and foreign media, from everywhere. These cynics are stupid. We all make decisions based on the stresses we're under. That's the only home they know, the properties they have, and the family had to be together.

If the local leadership was not forceful enough or did not educate enough or did not know by themselves the meaning of category 5 , then they shouldnt deserve to be in their positions. But these shouldn't be in our minds now. What we need to do now is  to send our sympathy and, more importantly,  we have to help. These are our countrymen.

We must also not forget the still insular nature of our links with the provinces. Initial reports only declare, somewhat 'proudly' only 3 persons dead, but now we're looking at 12000. We need leadership to get us linked from north to south. We have to this now.

Hire someone from Corporate to do this, Pnoy and Mar. Look for those with the sense of ownership and urgency. Those still with integrity and drive. Hire those young senior managers or directors. There are many who are willing to take a break for a year two from our salaries and for-profit work to contribute to the country.

Friends from Tacloban, please do not lose your integrity. There are ways to survive without stealing.

Do you want to be aligned with fuckers like this? 

Just stop whatever bad you know youve started. Help is coming. 

Stay together. This too will pass. We will recover.

Opportunity to revise portfolio (for that hoped for upsurge)

I think we are being given a chance this week to revise and prepare our portfolio before the upsurge of Dec - Mar. We are being given the chance to reenter MEG, MBT, and go back to our previously substantial position.

We're also watching out for GTCAP, SCC, BEL et al to go down our desired levels. BPI and AC, which are perennial foreign-fund favorites, these two are among the first to increase in a market upturn, are also becoming attractive.

TA though, which is one permanent stock in my port was hit by negative news. I now have paper loss in this stock equivalent to all that Ive earned from it in the past. I intend to average down after Wealth has finished unloading what it wants to unload. 

Or is this downturn portending the hurtful tapering of QE? I think I have to get in a bit. Just need to maintain at least 20% cash. 

Random Notes

I was not able to follow the plan to enter CPG at opening (nor at my previously set 1.87 last evening), because of an early meeting at work. When I was able to peek in Firstmetrosec, the price is already hovering near 2. That's not attractive any more considering that the 10% projected short-term gain (including the upside that already happened last Thursday) was already hit.

When I opened again an online broker around lunch time, i was surprised to see my GTM buy at 25.9 in AGI was hit. I set a day sell price at 26.95 arbitrarily by 130pm and was doubly surprised when it was hit at closing. AGI is among the last I expect to do a day trade with, but thanks to 1 K PhP+ nevertheless. I wonder what will happen to the stock tomorrow after the IPO day of RWM. Whatever happens, Ive set again a GTM buy at 26.

I did not submit a reservation form for RWM primarily because of its 27 P/E at IPO. I would have preferred Andrew Tan to have chosen a price below 20 P/E to compete with BEL's 20 - 25 P/E. Dr Tan and his advisors should have added as a consideration that BEL hasn't even opened Belle Grande yet (growth potential not yet fully unlocked for this competitor), while RWM has already been operating for some time (growth in even in terms of gaming table are already closely monitored by analysts).

However, BLOOM is trading at 35 P/E - 42 P/E at any given week, and RWM is still slated to expand in Pagcor City, so I might still participate at opening tomorrow. Guaranteed though that i wont hold RWM later than Friday closing.

I sold half of my RLC at near breakeven. About 80% of this position is from the remnant of its 25 PhP peak last June, which I averaged down in only lightly during the steep downturn. The fire at Galleria is not good for projected holiday revenue. In fact, I never thought this would go back to 23+, and thought I should take advantage already and unload some shares. Now the wishes are 1) to be able to buy back same position at 20 - 21.50 range before the year ends and 2) for Galleria to be open again before December, and 3) for the shops inside Galle to conduct a fantastic fire sale a la Shangri-La in 2010.

The 6800-in-2-weeks that I was projecting and pining for did not happen, probably because of the parsed statement in the FED minutes meeting about the powerful regulators hinting that QE tapering might start in December. Fund managers apparently have put more weight on that hint instead of holding on to the clear statement one month ago that the Fed wont start reducing bond buying if unemployment remains above 6.5%. I, for one, am constantly monitoring statistics a this site:
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

Pick of the week for Week 45 : TA TEL, and look out for buy-again points in GTCAP, SCC, MEG, AGI, JGS, and AEV

TA has good momentum currently and the sell volume is getting thinner and thinner since late last week after it surged up. Im heavy on TA; I was able to get back to my previous big position after I sold near half of holdings at its 2.8 peak months ago. Even though TA was not in my pick of the week list, I just bought tranches gradually when it was hovering at 2.1 - 2.2. This was done on faith given TA's growth potential, the management of the company, and its clear plans. Any one can read up on the plants and windmills under development, as well as Dean Viray's existing clout in the industry (including regulators). Lastly, Ive never lost yet a trade in TA and it gave me consistent hefty profits since to start of the year, so to support the stock's price at 2.1 can be sheer returning debt of gratitude (utang na loob) on my part :-) Further, Im still expecting gains on the property divs for Trans-asia Petroleum.

I was not expecting TEL to go back to below 2900, more so to go back insider its previous strong support at 2800-2830 range. This is always a safe stock to accumulate given its dividend yield. Furthermore, its current P/E is 15.8 while GLO is already at 21. I think the market is mis-pricing TEL and we should take advantage of the opportunity handed to us. Im ready to just add and add tranches even if TEL goes down to 2500. After adding earlier today, I now hold 5 tranches of TEL in my two ports (two brokers) combined.

Both TA and TEL I believe should gain +10% within this month, but I'll be starting to sell at +8% vs. their current price, considering that we are still not in a confirmed overall uptrend.

One should also keep an eye on stocks that may offer good reentry points within the week. MEG I think is a buy-again/add at 3.69, AGI at 25.30, JGS at 41.50, and AEV at 49. I have already set GTM buys myself at these levels. Part of the wishlist is also for solid favorites (but not holding currently) GTCAP to go back to 803 and SCC to 240ish before we enter 2014, but these could be far fetched.

And so it's CPG and Okada

I thought it's going to be ROCK or another relatively smaller player like ALPHA, BHI, ELI, but the Antonio's apparently entered the picture and closed with Okada. 

Congrats to all who tenaciously held on to CPG.

This will gap up tomorrow and increase in double figures, although you must impute in your expectations the fact that there were already people who received advanced word last Thursday (prompting CPG to increase 5%+). I will also look for a possible daytrade play. Why not long-term?  Well, we need to read-up more on construction timeline of the casino, the resort that will be attached, and their uniqueness compared to Belle/Dreams and Solaire. Does Okada, for example, have an existing junket system with a customer portfolio of rich mainland Chinese (similar to MCP and BEL's  advantage that they are bragging about)? Also, the Antonios will need to raise more cash. We need to know where and at what terms will they get fresh funds.

In any case, it was a nice play for Robbie da Pogi and his dad.