Pick of the Week for Wk 9 is TEL

(I still remember the 3 pesos for 3 minutes call in your nearest sari-sari stores)

Nothing in the PSE is for certain. There's one guru in the famous forum which during Q3 last year, every time when he said that a stock will increase for sure, the following day it came tumbling down. It might be him who was pushing it down (He was recommending, then selling on rally).

I have a substantial position in TEL that was accumulated since last year, but I do not intend to recommend and dump bluntly. This bet was done based on it high-dividend policy of PLDT as a telecom, and this div's expected announcement early March. Im relying on the same high div amount (special+regular) and the ex-date sched to make it probable for this stock to give me at least a 5-8% surge within the next 3 weeks.

If you bet now, youll be at my same entry price. I made most of these bets earlier this year, thinking that the wily short-term investors will start accumulating January. It didnt happen almost three months forward. If still nothing happens even after Divs announcement, there must be something wrong with the company... which, in turn, is improbable. If you relate it to your home needs, PLDT is still the most reliable broadband provider compared to the baloneys that sky and glo offer. And then on a bigger macro picture, call centers must be depending on TEL a lot currently and in the future.

posted this new handset to illustrate the advance in technology, but I think this particular set is gimmicky as most others--like celebrity-texting eklat--launched by SMART. Well you can not make all your mktg managers topnotch.  

TEL is on a slow crawl up compared to its other fundamentally-ok index peers. But we have also observed some foreign accumulation recently. I wouldn't speculate any more if these funds are for long term this time around, suffice it to say that I wont start dispose until I get to +5-8% profit range.

Sell some and enjoy

As in 90% of declarations this blog, this is also just a suggestion.

If you're seeing +8% or more in any of your holdings, sell some and then set a trail stop (like not less than 3% if suddenly there's strong selling) or maximum gain (like +15%, to be set according to your greed) on the rest. If the index fails to breach 6400 - 6450, at least you've taken already some profit. At minimum, your cash position will be healthy again. And you can take advantage of any temporary correction, which is probable to happen in the coming days.

And at the most, you can enjoy some of your gains. Buy a book or a gadget that will make you remember the bet in MEG or AGI that delivered to you that toy. Or... travel. You're buying time not just the experience. We're all not getting any younger.

We're going to El Nido -Miniloc ourselves 1st week of March, partially paid by gains from my 2nd (nimble) port. Sold some gains from my 2nd (bigger port) as well, but overall there is still paper loss at single digit.

Good luck on your own trades. Go  first / second liners / highly traded muna.

Pick of the Week for Wk 8 is GTCAP (watch SECB and LRI also)

If you bought last week's pick of the week MBT, sell at between 5 - 8% gain. If you still havent reached this range, in all probability, youll get this this week. (I think this is not a market yet to wait out and target a 15 - 20% gain before selling).

The pick of the week for this week is MBT's mothership, GTCAP. Foreign buying is palpable for this conglomerate earlier and it's probable for this to continue this week. And besides the uptrend in MBT, Toyota is also launching new surehit models.

I also like the foreign buying in SECB. These acquisitions by Deutsche, et al stopped today, but the increase is still steady and the price of SECB still cheap. But starting bet here should be small.

Im also watching LRI. A real beneficiary of the boom in Construction, its sellers are thinning, price is still cheap, and activities leading to greater quarrying capacity by 2015 should be on track. But bet small here also, just to be safe.

Happy Days are here again???

Are we about to take off again?

Ive began to read up substantially on PSE only last week. So, we can say I started late this year. And it might be an auspicious time to rejoin since the general sentiment by today is 'somewhat' rosy.

Yellen's pronouncements appear to express some stability on their bond buying. Looks like the FED will either 1) remain for some time at whatever level they're printing money at, or even if they continue to taper, 2) the market players have accepted already the impact and assessed the rate it is going to be done.

And the Philippines, with all our fantastic GDP increase, should be among the beneficiary of this stability. Will we perform the way we did same time last year given that there is now stability vis-a-vis external factors? Will fundamentals play more role given the atmosphere of less uncertainty? Furthermore, foreigners appear to be buying the past few days (albeit in small amounts).

And so Ive been seeing 'strong,' 'confident,' 'high-conviction' [add other superlative adjectives here] recos for stocks like CPG, LC PX and the mining bunch, even a recovery of SMC. There are still screaming something like "there's accumulation happening! ride on!."

But. amidst all the 'long' predictions you should still exercise caution. Many of these pundits were the same ones who were very positive last December, but there was no Santa Clause rally that came. (I was also optimistic beginning December, so had to swallow some cut-losses, and retained mostly the solid ones like MEG, MBT, TEL). Add here the fact that truly, the PSEi is not yet in a clear uptrend.

There is no substitute to doing research by yourself. We're all together in wishing for all the uncertainties to end, but read up all you can read up about the company that you have to bet on.

Think about and read up for 2 full days on the company youre eyeing before placing a bet.

Buying an iMac in Hong Kong (then back to Manila)

I registered in PhilMUG to read up on Apple's Airport Extreme router as a possible receiver/beneficiary of some early gains from trading this year. (I want to see physically the fruits of MEG and MBT... for good luck in 2014). 

I then found a forum participant asking about buying an iMac in HK and bringing it back to Manila. 

I actually did this January 2013, and was quite proud of the quick-thinking that Ive been forced to do. Im sharing what I did here, so pictures can also be included. (im not yet allowed to post pictures in PhilMUG)

That time, just less than 6 months after the latest iteration of the iMac was introduced, the price here in Manila is actually 8 - 10 K PhP more expensive than in HK. So provided you dont get charged additional in bringing Apple's famed desktop here, and you are in a business trip in HK anyway, it's indeed better to buy in Hong Kong. 

But the problem is how to avoid that extra charge (duties, taxes, and/or bribe  upon getting out of the airport)? Im willing to bet that the big, beautiful packaging of the iMac will not make you 'escape' the hungry eyes of customs officials. 

I liked the iMac but it was a semi-impulse-buy, considering Im leaving for Manila in just a few hours, and I hadnt actually prepared a full plan to resolve the duties 'risk.' 

I thought checking-in the iMac in its packaging and then taking it out of the box after the carousel in our airport is risky. Someone can see you and prompt customs official ahead, making all the hassle of dismantling the iMac out of its perfect packaging futile. Putting it in a big luggage, wrapping it in clothes is also an option,  but I already checked-in in-town my luggage ahead of my flight.

Anyway, what I  first did was to look for a luggage that can accommodate the iMac and still be okay for carry-on. (I also needed a carry-on roller that time).  I tested all cabin-legal that they have at the Samsonite outlet store at Citygate, none would fit. I then saw 6 paper bags in a corner that they were about to throw away. Asked for all six, took the imac out of its big packaging, but retained the white cloth wrap, and placed the desktop inside . The keyboard and trackpad also went in the bag (combined for strength like what they do in in grocery stores when you have heavy canned goods). I carried them all inside the plane.    

 iMac box--i left it on top of the thrash can beside the escalator at (remembered to take a picture while i was already going down)

[iMac looking small inside the multiple paper bags]. 

When i passed by the exit in NAIA T2, the customs agent asked "ano yan, monitor" (what's that a monitor?).

I said, "oho" (yes), and then walked my way out toward the parking calmly.  

This worked with the 21.5 incher, but Im sure it can also be done with the larger size.

Ive been using the iMac for almost a year now. 

Watching Some Second Liners in Property (very short comments)

I was rearing to add in FLI last Monday, but the apparent downward channel since mid last year is scary. Im just holding same position. If this breaches 1.50 though, it will break the downtrend. This is the time when I will add.

There appears to be some accumulation happening in ELI. And although the stock is sideways the past weeks, the sell side is thinning. Against million waiting on buy, there are only a few thousands in sell. I place some small position myself at 0.92. This will only be for small play. Im forcing myself not to bet too much on lightly-traded issues untill there is a clear overall-PSEi uptrend.

CPG is remarkable for still not announcing an ex-date for its stock divs that was announced almost a year ago. What kind of game the Antonios are playing here? Are the details of the agreement with Okada (in terms of equities) still not complete? If I enter CPG, as usual, I'll be preparing to exit in inside 2 weeks (win or lose).Robbie the pogi is just not a long-term manager for me to be with.

ROCK--Ive been avoiding Lopez stocks carte blanche since November.

VLL--re-entered at 5.1 partly to release some cash (gained from MEG). Will add and add even if it goes down to 4.5. Basura swimmer Manny is supposed to be fully focused in managing VLL at this time. He should make some headway leaps this year with his company.

GERI--The original previously-nearing-bankrupt owners, Fil-Estate, is still continuously disposing shares, and they have more to unload. Any positive sentiment toward this company will just be impeded every time Fil-estate sells. Dear Dr. Andrew Tan, why not just make a private deal with them to buy all in bulk so you can have GERI in its own potential?
I'll stay away from GERI until I see a significant slow down of "Statement of Changes in Beneficial Ownership of Securities" disclosures from Fil-Estate.

GTCAP-- has some minor land stakes. This is always a buy for me at a price near 700. Im still holding some amount at small positive.

Pick of the week for Wk 7 is MBT

MBT is a perennial pick because of its value. It still is the cheapest among our top 3 banks. And it is at last, showing again its strength. By its performance the last 3 days, it has a chance to kiss 90 again.

I accumulated MBT myself at its low 70's and some of these positions were pre-set to sell at 80 (inputted weeks ago). I was a bit disheartened to see a substantial position hit and unloaded this morning. If I had the chance to take back the sell orders and re-set to 84-85, I would have, but that's part of my trading discipline by this time--to control emotion. And since, needless to say, one of the strongest emotion in trading is greed, sell points must be set way ahead. Considering also that the overall market is still not in a clear uptrend, there's all the more reason to do this.

Pick of the week for Wk6 is: Patience before entry

Amidst the downtrend in neighboring Asian markets, the locals seem to be defending our market with steadfastness. It is visible with the blue chips and second liners alike, where you might see CLSA, DEUTSCHE, etc selling but COL, FIRSTMET, et al are buying. (Just see the summary at the end of each day). We Pinoys must be holding on to the long-overdue and very probable (based on history in recent years) uptrend that should happen until May.

This should paint a rosy picture, but on short-term, we're recommending patience. The entry must be right and as projected for the handle--in a cup-and-handle pattern--to form (see post last week).

We're retaining our watchlist from the previous week, holding on to our cash, and timing/hoping for the right entry.

O-ha, panalo ang Seattle. Panalo!

Superbowl champs!

At nagkontribyut si Pareng Doug Baldwin ng maraming yards at isang touchdown!

Maswerte talaga kapag nagwawagayway nang ating bandila.

Ano kaya ang maswerteng istak ngayong linggo? Ano ba ang may Philippines o Philippines sa pangalan? Hhhhmn. Siguradong hindi San Miguel Corporation of the Philippines yan!

Paki-TELL na lang sa akon, ha?