Pick of the week for Wk 15 is: take your fingers off the buy button mean time

Index may continue on to a downward channel. Yes the channel's slope is shallow, but it is a down trend nevertheless. 

The consolation is that the foreigners are continuing to buy.

• yesterday, they bought 1.4 B PhP worth net.  
• month = 19.5 B
• quarter = Php17.5B

However, I dont like what Im seeing about a 'non-widespread' and very selective buying that they're doing. I dont have solid stat but I feel that they are pushing only specific stocks and fighting each other--or worse, just exchanging short-term profit on the others. This is very different compared to the 'high-conviction' uptrend last year.

In other words, if we have 30 issues in the PSEi, they only have about 5 being clearly pushed up for long-term holding. .

Add to the worry us locals, who were probably jailed and languishing in perceived misery, as far back as May. We are the ones constantly feeding the foreigners obviously. The even more pessimistic pinoys are not joining the buying probably as a rule, and probably just want to get out. One whole sector--the banks--are also being set aside even by the both locals and foreigners. How can we go up solidly if one important industry sector is being let down.

I also dont like that the quarterly window dressing yesterday only jumped 1.09%. This is not decisive buying up.  And then what if the foreigners suddenly decided to test-unload for a week? Or when Russia steps on to Ukraine's capital? We can always tumble down by -3% in successive days again,.

All these only mean that we are not yet in a clear general market uptrend, so, again if you itch to participate, do not go all in. And put special attention to high-dividend payers and fundamentally-solid companies

One optimistic scenario is for index to bounce steeply and highly after forming a handle toward 6200. This would mean that the weaker hands were shaken out by the wily foreigners, and so we'll be ready to test 7K again after that. But even if it goes this way, it's better to be safe and exchange of giving up profit for 'surefootedness.' Meaning, wait for the breakout rather than going on all-in at a supposed bottom.

My personal plan: I will start buying only on two conditions 1) until we reach 6250, or 2) when index breaks out of 6550. If it goes down further below 6250, I will add until 5900. If it goes down further below 5900 (10% from recent peak), then it's painful cutloss time again. In any case, I was able to cash in on many issues the past 8 weeks, so there's a war chest that will make me brave a cutloss season (if it indeed comes again).

If it breaks 6550, then good for us. If this happens, it's bonanza time again, and we should only start to think about selling come May-August.

Mean time, it's just watch. If I play a bit, my fingers will be ready to sell those new positions within the same week.

What's in a name? And ticker?

Sinimulan ito ni Dio sa SMP. Magandang dagdagan. Nakakatuwa naman kasi talaga ang registered names at ticker ng iba nating nakalistang kompanya sa PSE.

VUL--supot ang putok/pagsabog. imploding pa madalas

PNX--di pa nagreresurrect ang ibon mula sa pagkakasunog (may kaso pa kasi)... naalala ko tuloy daft punk"... like the legend of the phoenix... up all night to get lucky...."

JOHLIVILLE--Tingin ko ito ang pinakaestupidong pangalan ng kumpanya sa PSE. Walang kaugnayan ang pangalan sa bisnes nilang pagtutubig. Dahil ba nagandahan sila sa pangalan ng Jollibee? E kaso di naman makasunod sa price trend ng pinagkopyahan.

SGI--solid na ginawang liquid ni SB Equity

PHA--Premiere Horizon Alliance... panalo ang pangalan, high-minded, parang index stock na ang dating. Wish ko lang isama talaga ang condom sa holdings. Wag puros pasugalan. O kaya magprodyus na talaga ng movies. Wag makuntento sa paglisensya ng mga lumang pelikula nila Da King at Pidol.

PHESte--talagang PHESte ang isang ito.

ROCK--another double-edged name--rock-and-roll sana pag tumataas, pero sa totoo, naging kundiman na sa lamya. At tunay na Alcatraz (original na the ROCK) ito nitong nakaraang 1.5 taon dahil sa dami ng ikinulong. Walang makapuga.

PMPC--pang star awards ang bisnes pero bazura pa rin talaga

TEL--kinorner na ang TELephone kasi sya lang naman talaga ang nagsusupply ng telepono dati

GLO--it GLOws, but still reminds me of that pandak president

BHIlibid--storied stock for the adventurous.

AUB--parang birth control lang. High-flying in its IPO day and then cockblocked and tumbled down just days after.

COSCO--stupid imitation of Costco. Dapat nag-isip si Lucio ng ibang mas malikhaing pangalan. Oks naman ang Puregold. Pwede namang Alchemy Holdings, o kaya Karat Holdings, o Co Empire Death Star.

PGOLD--pure gold. Galing din ng nag-isip ng isang ito. Anlaki na ng kinita ng mga 3 taon nang may hawak nito. Mas maganda pa ang naging performance kaysa tumaya sa ginto mismo.

ALI--sapakan na. Parang palaban sa pagkamal ng mga lupain para lumaban kila SMPH, MEG, et al.

AC--airconditioned. Para sa mga laking aircon. Sosyal ang dating.

MAKE--make money? pero binenta na kay Zesto.

CAL--calaboso dapat ang mga nanlamang dito noon. Mga mandurugas.

LC--Elsie baby, malikot at malandi, pero marami nang nabasted

PHES--PHESte talaga

EMP--Electromagnetic pulse and sipa, pero parang supot na rabintador lang ang kinalabasan (sa ngayon)

BLOOM--kaBLOOM pag umaangat, lantang bulaklak kapag bumababa

DD--parang size ng bra. Maging sexy kaya mga ilang buwan pagkatapos ng IPO?

SHANG--Shang na shang lang ang pag-ibig ko. Di ko pa rin maintindihan ang 7th floor na parking ng mall nito sa Crossing. Biruin mo ang gasolina na gagastahin para makapark lang sa pinakatuktok.

NOW--not NOW. How about never? Is never okay with you?

CEB--walang akong maiassociate sa pangalan, pero bwisit talaga ang airline na ito. Ubod na kups na mga ground crew. Sanay na sanay na mang-asar. Angkakapal na ng mukha sa pang-hahassle.

PAL--hitik ito ng pwedeng tukso kapag bumabagsak--PALpak, kuPAL manedyers ba?, PALakang kokak sa talon at bagsak, etc

DMPL--maski ang mga may dimple di makatawa sa binagsak nito

TUGS--double-edged na naman... TUGStugan pag tumataas, unTUGS naman kapag di makalusot sa resistance.

2GO--parang takeout o maliksi dapat ang galaw ng presyo, pero kasama ito sa istak na mahilig matulog. Kapag nagising, mas posibilidad ang pagbagsak.

AGF--Agfa, beautiful pictures, pero laos na ang film.

AP--APir pag tumataas, diyaskeng diyoskopong APeng daldal pag dumadausdos

ALPHA--mas mukhang Omega dahil na-delist na

FOOD--parang masyadong oportunista na sinakop na lahat ng uri ng pagkain at tinawag na ang sariling FOOD.

ANI--reminds me of some of Napoles's NGO

APEX--more like abyss sa baba ng presyo

WIN--sino na ang mga nanalo todits?

GREEN--madalas ba green o mas madalas pula?

ARA--Ara Mina... matanda na . Cristine reyes na lang

COL--Hey I just met you... COL me maybe? Kailangan kasing itawag talaga ang mga order kasi madalas mag-down kamakailan ang website.

EVER--Ever wagas kapag nanunog para maka-claim ng insurace

Lighten-up or hold until just around 6250

BSP's announcement this week and the continuing posturing of Russia do not bode well for us retail investors in the PSE. I also dont like the picture of foreign selling in some of our index stocks. 

My hulanalysis tell me that there's a chance that we will tumble down to just below 6250, then it's a big up or a bigger down after that point. 

If we go below that... then it's going to be painful cutloss time again. The situation is good for us who sold many positions at +5%-8% and dampened greediness for any thing more. I wrote here many times the past few weeks that this is not the market backdrop yet to wait out for double-digit gains before selling. We are not yet in a clear uptrend. As good as my cash position is today, of course a 5%- 10% down will still be very painful for remaining positions.

Anyway, for me, the possible consolation are reentries to favorite stocks that I mentioned in the other post. Otherwise, it's a toss-up. It seems I wont buy and enter in new positions in the next few days. And my fingers might be ready to cutloss more than sell for profit. 

Stocks Im aching to go back to

If Putin's posturing indeed brings our PSE down, 

there could be some benefit to many of us who's holding a healthy cash position.

For myself, a steep correction could allow me to place some bets again in these issues I never lost a bet with (you can call this my Top-5-but-Im-not-currently-holding stocks):

1) MEG -- I'll start entering at 3.73 with one tranche and continue to add even if it struts down to 3.0

2) PGOLD--will start at 38 and place bets until 30

3) AGI--25.9, will add until 20

4) DNL--785 will add until 700

5) toss-up between SCC (290... but improbable to happen) or GTCAP (785 until 700)--

Apologies to those still holding.
Yes, Im wishing for these to go down, but I consider these issues among the most resilient of the past 12 months. They seem to be among the stocks that return back to previous highs (and make new highs). Besides being fundamentally solid, they also seem to return to their 'true' valuation (in terms of growth promise) the fastest way.

There are others that perform like them, but these are the ones I dont have current positions in (and would want to go back to) asap.

Pick of the Week for Wk 13 is TA

You might have seen this recommendation coming. The pick of the week this week is one of the perennial favorites...TA. My GTM buy at 2.0 (as planned last week) was hit while I was away. By afternoon when I had the time to peek, the price has gone up to 2.11.

I then discovered later that the probable cause why it jumped up is because of the divs announcement. Although Im already monitoring the companies that are expected to announce divs in March, my eyes was not on TA for this reason.

I was predicting instead that TA will go down 10% before going up again, so I have set 2.0 as the first price point when to add and minus-15% as another level if it goes down further. If it went further than 15%, then it's going to be an Oh My Lord season again--either cutloss or waiting time for another round. :-)

In any case, the hope is for TA to jump to 2.18 - 2.23 range, before going down (taking a breather) again. I will sell some positions at this range.

Pumapapalag ang Tubig

Ayon sa aking pansamantalang pamantayan na obserbahan at hulihin ang mga stock na may tatlong nagtutulung-tulongang banyaga--ang magtutubig na MWC ang aking nakita noong Lunes hanggang Miyerkules. Nagtutulung-tulong ang CSUISSE, PEP, MACQ, DEUTSCHE, atbp sa pagbili ng isang ito.

(Malikot pa rin, pero mukhang may nagsisimulang mag-ipon na na mga banyaga (tignan din ang paglaki ng bolyum).  

May natunugan na kaya ang mga foreigner na balita tungkol sa arbitration sa Singapore? Hindi ba inaabot nang taun-taon ang pagdinig sa mga korteng ito? Katakut-takot na sandwich, bayad, at pa-lunch sa mga abogado ang wawaldasin pa ng MWC at ng ating gobyerno (para ipaglaban ang posisyon ng MWSS) bago magkaron nang kaliwanagan ang kaso ng tamang singil sa tubig.

Magaling naman talaga ang MWC. Dito pa nga nilagay ang magaling na CEO ng mga Ayala na si Ablaza mula sa Globe papunta sa tubigan. Marahil, ginawa ito nila JAZA para palawigin at palakihin ang mas delikado at sensitibong bisnes na ito (mas sensitibo nga naman kaysa sa telekomunikasyon ang ipinapaligong at iniinom na tubig). Alam ko rin na kailangan ng malilikhaing mga hakbang para kumita sa mga baranggay na walang metro, o yaong mga lugar na punung-puno ng ilegal na koneksyon. Malamang nakita ninyo na rin ito... iyong nagsasalimbayang plastic na tubo, goma, hose, at tumatalsik na tubig sa daan.

Sa lugar namin sa Caloocan, ginastusan talaga ang paghuhukay ng daan para maayos ang mga primerong linya at mga kuneksyon sa mga bahay. Pinutol na rin sa proseso ang mga iligal. Ang kaagad-agad na benepisyo sa mga nagbabayad... kakaibang lakas ng presyur sa tubig na di namin naramdaman ng deka-dekada. Kaya't sa ganang akin, maganda naman ang naging pribatisasyon ng tubohan at tubigan natin.

Wag po

Kaya't medyo OA sa akin ang nagtatawag agad na ibalik sa MWSS ang admin ng tubig. Hindi ninyo ba naiimadyin ang pila sa munisipyo? Napapansin ninyo ba na habang maraming naghihintay, maraming tatanga-tangang nakatunganga o nagbabasa ng diyaryo duon at naghihintay ng alas singko para makauwi na?  Bagama't tama nga lamang na tignan ang rekwes na itaas ang singil ng ganun-ganon na lamang.

Mukha kasing guilty ang mga nasa board ng MWSS dahil na-expose ang naglalakihang 'consultation fees' at sweldo nila kaya't gusto agad makabawi, kaya't reduction ang inanawns, kaya ayun sumadsad kasunod ang presyo ng MWC.

(MWSS Chairman na biglang kambyo at anawns ng bawas-singil)

(Naglaho ang singkwenta porsento ng halaga ng MWC lasyir dahil sa pagpapasiklab ni Alikpala. Biruin mo, parang naging BHI lang ang galaw)

Heniwey, hindi man lumabas ang paborableng desiyon tungkol sa kaso, naniniwala ako na makakahanap ng oportunidad sa ibang lugas sa pinas o sa ibang lupalop sila Ablaza para palaguin pa ang kumpanya. Maglalagay na ako ako nang kaunti sa MWC para may paglagyan naman ang posisyong-salapi.

Ang sabi pa nga ng itay ko, 250 to 320 lang ang bill sa tubig ng anim na katao. Ikumpara ito sa kuryente namin? Tumataginting na limanlibo.

Meralco at power plant ng mga Lopez na lang ang tiradurin ninyo, mga katotong tibak.

(Ang mga Lopez ay mahusay lang makapag-isip kung pano makapanlamang at mautakan ang polisiya ng gobyerno. Hanggang ngayon tumitira pa rin sila nang pailalim kung paano makakatabo sa EPIRA at WESM) 

Hindi ko nga pala binanggit dito ang pagkakabili ng mga Lopez sa Maynilad at pagkaka-mismanage nito. Laking gudnews nga ng kinuha na lang ni MVP at DMC ang pagmando. Sa ibang post na lang ito.

Pick of the Week for Wk12 is FLI (and buy a bit of TA if it does another short handle)

I'd like to speculate a bit this week, and so I added on my existing position in FLI. I saw some foreign accumulation recently and thought that it has gone sideways long enough. FLI has good below-10 valuation, it is among the properties that hasnt gone up much yet, and its projects have a clear path and sched, their mall and hotel in Albang are both doing well, their land bank at that part of Manila is uneatable, BUT... this at best is still a very risky hunch-based bet more than based any deeper analysis. The stock is not trading as high a volume as MEG (it can be brought down any time by a big fund--local or foreign), it's not a 'visible' in terms of press releases compared to A Tan stocks, it failed to break resistances several times in the past, it's also not nearing a div announcement (this usually pays in June).

[In fact, if you chose to place your bet in SMC, you could have achieved much much higher gain upfront. I just decided last year to place zero money with RSA, until his borrowing stops to a level in balance with SMC's earnings growth].

Also, TA might go down to 2.0 before it goes up again. Im going to add to my existing position in TA, at that level, partly for the purpose of releasing some cash. My faith in this company presided by Dean Viray remains.

Pick of the Week updates

I'll make it a practice to review my picks 4 weeks back always, since Ive made it a point since Q4 last year to stay with my picks normally at a month's horizon.

It's nearing harvest time for the picks of the weeks.
--in wk8 (GTCAP)... Im at 5% now, will be considering to sell at 8% tops.
--wks 9 and 10 (TEL)... on top of the hefty dividends in PLDT, we might get some cherry on top, probably +3% in the coming few days.
--wk 7's MBT, where I profited already (with MEG) substantially, I still have some position remaining in my nimbler port at +4%. We'll probably sell all at +5%. (My bigger port still has substantial MBT, remnants of last year, at -2%).
--Wk 11, the dividend-paying-company-nearing-exdate-announcement that I chose is MER. It is showing +1.97% for me today, but I placed only a small bet. I'll sell at +4 or 5%.

These target sell prices are based on the premise that PSEI will correct again once it reached 6650. As most retail investors, Im hoping that the PSEi will have momentum until 6800 in a few days; after all, it's rare to see a net foreign selling day since beginning Feb. But Im already willing to take some profit at 6600-6700.

Good luck with the possible jump up in the next few days.

GERI's big surprise

Im writing for posterity that I recently earned an unexpected five figures from my one my almost-a-year-old holdings... GERI.

I profited here when it jumped from 2.2ish to 2.6 in a short time-span last year. I remember it since jumped up further to almost 3 after I sold it all. When it was going down from that peak to 2, I started buying in tranches, until I had to cut losses with half-of-original position remaining. But then, I stupidly continued to average down after Dr. Tan announced he bought at 2+. And then the market, GERI included continued to tumble down hard.

When I finally stopped buying at 1.35, the total lot of GERI the I had had an AEP down to 1.5ish, and then the loss still saddled down to double figures. I stopped buying some time October and sold some lots at double-digit loss to raise some cash. (I since recovered some of those losses somewhere else). I thought GERI can not jump up back to near-3 until its original owners (Fil-estate) stopped selling. Also the company itself is not showing profit worth of its valuation at present... it has a high P/E of 50 (even higher than JFC) and is not paying a single cent of dividend.

So, it was a big surprise that my GTM sell was hit at 1.96. (All of my old holdings have GTM sells since I have a day job and cant monitor the market all the time. This is also my way to be emotionless in trading. I feel the profit on each particular holding is right to me at those specific levels). GERI was among the one the I least expect to profit from this soon. Whatever is the follow-on or special offering rumor that jacked this up, Im thankful for it. Even if it tempts 3 PhP again, I wont have regrets. I also I wont come back to GERI until 1) Fil-Estate has unloaded half of remaining shares it is holding today, and 2) construction of its supposed vineyard at Tagaytay and township at Pasig have broken ground.

Thank you, GERI.

It's your turn now, ELI. Whatever happened to your "Olivia, will you marry me" campaign? Announce some divs, ELI.

Pick of the week for Wk11 is a dividend-payer soon to announce divs

Below is the list of high divs payer taken from INDO's thread in SMP: 

You have to check which one historically is paying out in March but hasn't announced yet. (TEL is out since it announced already). There should be a very probable +3% in this stock (for short-term gain).

Property-fueled push

Properties are the ones pushing our PSE up last week. Some random notes:

1) Sy stocks are laggards this time around. They will get some attention when MEG and the others are nearing their peaks last year. We understand the doubts with SM's management vs. ALI, but the SY's landbanking is still impeccable.

2) VLL is being hit by some curious foreign-selling. What gives? Is Villar's planned play in the debt market too much?

3) CPG is the better-performing of the 2nd liners at this time. Perhaps boosted by news of condos that are topping-off this year, it might be good to ride some here for short term. I already did.

4) ROCK is still fucking lazy. One of the worst performing stock (overall) last year and still there's no sign of life. Could the management or investor relations at least craft a positive news update on the activities of this company?

5) Solid performance by MEG. I disposed all my positions at 3.99. If this PSE jumps steady at 6500 (meaning the market is by that time on a confirmed uptrend) I'll enter at whatever price MEG is in.

6) BHI remains a stock only for the adventurous. As usual, bet only if you have the full time to monitor. And get out when youre lucky the gain jumped to +10% within one week. Get out if your loss veered to negative 5%. At least you have a 1:2 play with your casino bet here.

Pick of the week for Wk10 is still TEL

If you've gotten in with fresh funds last week, you should be at +4% now.

The trading today is obviously foreign-buying fuelled. The locals are heavily on the sell side. (These fellow Pinoys might just want to transfer funds to a supposed better-performing stock).

If your chunk is big enough, it's time to divest some at +6%. If TEL soured some, there's still the 4% dividend that can serve as a risk-mitigating factor.

Kumusta na ang inyong mga portfolio?

Ako mismo'y nakatira lang nang tig-3.5 -5% sa maiikling taya sa VLL, CPG, MEG, at GTCAP. (Ang pagsama ko sa TEL ni Turmukesh na lang ang di nagbubunga). Ngayon, halos 50% ang nasa posisyon sa datung. Nandoon ang agam-agam na napaaga yata nang pagbenta. Kaliwa't kanan ang mga nagsasabi ngayon na matindi ang momentum pataas, at nagbabalik na rin ang mga banyaga.

Di ko sigurado ang solidong momentum na sinasabi nila, pero mukha ngang bumabalik na nang dahan-dahan ang mga banyaga. Ito ang nagpapaisip sakin na itaya ang lahat, sila lang naman talaga kung tutuusin ang may naglalalakihang bayag. Kung gusto nilang pataasin hanggang langit, grabe silang pumitik. Kung gusto namang pasadsarin, wala ring patumangga magbenta pababa.

Kaya ito ang magiging istratehiya ko sa mga darating na araw--oobserbahan ko talaga kung ano ang binibili ng mga dayuhan. Kapag may tatlong nagsama-sama--halimbawa JPMORGAN, DEUTSCHE, at MACQUARIE--sa isang stock, at tapos mukhang mura pa sa P/E, aba tataya na ako ng isa o dalawang talpak.

Hindi ko rin kakalimutang mag-enjoy nang konti.

Sang-ayon ako sa proposisyon na binibili din natin ang oras at edad. Mali ang diskarte kapag ipon lang nang ipon nang pera hanggang maging sinkwenta, atsaka maiisipang mag-travel. Pag nagbakasyon ka sa Puerto Princesa nang sinkwenta ka, iba na yon. Mas sumasakit na ang likod mo non. May dating na DOM ka pa sa mga bar.