Another memorable June in the offing

We wrote here to watch out for the GDP announcement on Thursday. If we were asked to bet then (early in the week), we would have placed money that the GDP increase will be between 6.5-7, but the report was below 6 instead. The damage of Haiyan is still being felt.

And so the result of the less-than-desired report: intermediate moving average of the index was breached (see the purple and orange line crossing on the 2nd graph).

I really chose to go out of an office meeting around 11am, went back to my cube quickly, opened interaksyon.com, saw the not-so-good NEDA report, opened the brokerage, and immediately saw red nearing 1%. Without emotions, I unloaded many positions until my main port is 60% cash, and nimble port to 75%. We also 100%-redeemed all our equity-based UITF's (all of them green). Then, I went back to the the meeting. Friday, I didnt have time to trade or even open brokerage account for a minute, but I know that it was very probable that we're red also that day. If we have shorting in PSE, I would have done day trading and shorted the previous high-flyers for sure.

Today, I was surprised to see the 16B volume and the persistent foreign buying of their respective pet stocks on Friday. Looks like the foreigners are remaining steadfast to each of their pets. This brought optimism in many locals. Will the foreigners impede a general bearish trend?

In any case, down or continue upwards, we are in to another memorable June. Our short-term reco though is not to fight it. The safest move is to maintain a robust cash position. Remain only in a few issues you truly believe in.

Im still holding a significant amount of SECB, some MBT, some LRI, other old (long-held) holdings, and other dividend payers. I still hold and intend to accumulate BEL with the impending opening of the City of Dreams casino. Also, a one tranche in BPI became two when a low-priced buy position (previously set) was surprisingly hit last Friday.

In the end, if we go down, we think this is just temporary. If NEDA is pointing to Haiyan as the culprit, that can be solved. If we manage the aids well, as they did in the tsunami hit places of a decade ago, even the Haiyan-hit areas should go back stronger. I will start to buy again at 6500 probably and continue to go buy even if we go back to 5500.

But if there is an impending BSP policy rate increase, that will be another matter. The ride down will be deeper and more painful if policy rates increase. It's time to add to bonds-UITF if that's the case.

Pick of the week for Wk23 is watch out for the GDP announcement on Thursday

Anything near 7% will take our index on an uptrend. How long of an uptrend? We dont know. Only important is to know that we will profit in 2-3 week horizon, so it's good to ride it.

There's a big probability that we will breach this, so it might already be safe to enter small tranches in your 'reliable' blue chips that experienced some downtrend.

Im looking at FLI, which appears to have consolidated enough on its current level.

I havent checked the foreign selling in PGOLD, if it has already abated. But at present, I already like how the valuations of GTCAP, JGS are becoming more attractive.

I have no time to monitor the market and actively trade, so Im always putting a 'margin of error' in my buys. But for sure, I'll try to squeeze in time (whether to buy or to sell) after the GDP announcement on Thursday.

Good luck!

Pick of the week for Wk22: is to watch index break 6950 then buy a blue chip of your choice, like BPI. Watch also PGOLD

The SECB that I bought last week as pick of the week is now showing +3%. I will hold this and will probably sell at +5 - 8%. 

Im now watching the index in general and see if there will be convincing breach of 6950 (or more so 7000!), then realign--sell some of those with high % gain (like MBT) and buy those that still has room vs. its 52-week highs. 

I havent had time to look at all the blue chips, but BPI it seems still has room. 

PGOLD is also in my watchlist. I'd like the foreign selling to dissipate at 40. I will start one tranche at 40 and increase double tranche at 39, triple at 38, and so on. I wont be afraid even if PGOLD becomes 50% of my port. I know that the disclosed income of PGOLD for the quarter is disappointing, but still the branches and low price, bare bones strategy,  of this company is well positioned, in my book, to reap the consumerist attitude of our OFW families. My biweekly groceries also remain at Puregold. 

Binebenta ng mga banyaga ang PGOLD at COSCO

Huwag muna siguro labanan. Ayon nga sa CANSLIM, hindi dapat nilalabanan ang mga naglalakihang pondo.

Hindi natin alam kung ito ay dahil sa napipintong pagpasok ng Duty Free bisnes ni Lucio sa loob ng Puregold. Masyado bang malaki ang balwasyon ng bisnes na iyon, at ayaw ng mga mananayang higante?

Wala akong Puregold o Cosco sa ngayon, pero bibili ako nito negatib momentum man kapag umabot sa 39 o 38.50.

Net Foreign Selling Na Tayo?

"Foreign selling at 0.6B," ang report nga palitan kanina. Isang buwan ko yatang hindi nakita ang sumatotal na nettong pagbebenta ng mga banyaga. Ano kaya ang kanilang sinimulang bitawan?

Tandaan, sa CANSLIM, ang katumbas ng I - Institutional support sa PSE ay ang pagbibili ng matatapang (kapag gustong pataasin) and walang habag (kapag gustong pabagsakin) na mga banyaga. Kailangang makiramdam sa mga susunod na araw kung ano ang mga istaks na nawawalan ng suporta ng mga banyaga. Hindi sapat ang aksyon kahapon lang, kailangang magmatyag nang mga limang araw man lang.

PERO bagkus, ang aking posisyong-salapi ay nasa halos kalahati, kung kaya't naghahanap rin ako ng maiging paglagyang matibay na kumpanya na pansamantalang bumababa dahil kinukuhanan ng kita ng mga panandaliang-aliw na traders. Kasama rin ako dyan sa mga benta-kapag-+5% an ang ganansya makailang buwan lang nakakaraan. Sa ngayon, gusto ko kasi double digit man lang bago humamig. Iba kasi ang ihip ng hangin ngayon...

SUBALIT sa huli, kanya-kanyang pakiramdaman at basa sa kumpanya pa rin lang yan.

Pick of the week for Wk21 is SECB, and wait for handles in DNL and BEL

I dont have much time to check on the market and review several issues. But I peeked earlier and saw that SECB still has four foreign buyers vs. only 1 foreign seller. I think SECB has 4-6% more steam before correcting.

Never thought I can go back to BEL in my nimble port after previously-set play at 6.03 was hit, but [again another previously-set] buy at 5.7 was hit. I intend to accumulate this even if it goes down to 4.5. And my main port already have a position in BEL as well (at average entry of 5.5).

I would like to go back to AGI, MEG, and DNL, but only DNL seems to be trending to a correction.

The rest of my blues, Im just holding. There's still a big chance that we'll get to 6900-7000 range in a few days.

No Pick of the Week for Wk20: Turmukesh was in China for Work / Official Business

I did not trade the whole week, but a little of my sell point previously set was hit.

Ive been going to various part of this Capitalist-Communist mongrel of a country twice a year, and every visit I become more and more convinced that we have a long, long way to go before declaring ourselves the next developed Asian country.

It's very obvious that we need to fix the bureaucracy in our government, install better managers, and do effective infrastructure and city planning even before we really get to leap frog or even sustain 7+% growth rate year on year.

Can we build the many bridge options and wide roads? Can we convince the offices to move out of Manila in favor of Sta. Rosa and other many Makatis of the South, North, et al?

Can we have the political will to use cheap nuclear power?

The Filipino craftsmanship can compete, but China's level of automation has reached a level very high, even in job-shop industries.  

We have a big gap to close. We need good managers in the government. Good managers, each with protected integrity.

SECB on the run

Two weeks ago, we wrote here:

SECB--it would also be useful to watch for increase in foreign buying again (like last year) before getting in or adding to existing positions. It would be ideal to see a combination for 3 among MACQ, CLSA, CSUISSE, JPMORGAN [meaning, foreign funds] to buy in bulk again. I'd also like to see WEALTH buying as well.

The two conditions were met today. 

1) WEALTH is buying again, significantly at that.
2) And it's not just three but five foreign funds--DEUTSCHE, CSUISSE, PEP, UBS, and ATR--are buying in bulk. 

The catalyst is the earnings announcement. 

Props for whoever prepared the the press release. It was perfect to emphasize the increase in interest income this year, as opposed to the huge trading gains that lifted SECB in 2012. This means that SECB indeed has its strong branch expansion bearing fruits. The bank has its eyes now competing in loans and deposits with the big three MBT, BDO, and MBT.

And then the chart:

Expect TA believers to buy more tomorrow, because SECB did important crosses yesterday. both long and short-term downtrends have been broken.

Looks like the core position that Ive kept and added to since July last year will bear fruit. Ive taken profit in some of the swings in SECB before, but here should come a bigger chunk. And I think I will buy (buy up!) one more tranche tomorrow until 121. (The only chartist concern should be short-term since RSI is now showing oversold).

Now, why did I stick it out with SECB? I think I mentioned elsewhere that this bank is a good value at current price and it is noticeably expanding branches everywhere.

It's apparent that the firm has a long term growth strategy. It knew it cannot stick by its income in just trading equities and bonds. It needs to expand its depositor base and loan customers, Now, whether SECB will indeed get close to the Big 3 in the next 5 years is another matter. I guess the way to know that is to become a customer of SECB. We'll look into this bank if indeed we decide to buy a house this year. A house? This deserves another blog post.