Workweek 16: Trading Notes

As I previously wrote, after being indifferent with our market and just remaining on cash and preferred stocks, the excitement is going back for short term.

Like many others, Im wondering about the motivation of that big Firstmetrosec for unloading big time last week. If a fund sells that much, it usually needs money for other investment opportunities its manager/s think they have greater chances to profit in. What opportunities are there? Maybe th efund is exiting from the country altogether? Why?

Well, the value investor in me still prevails, so I bought in two tranches each in AGI and DMC. Just the dividend yield at these prices for both are enough motivation for me to buy. AGI also is still on buyback and the company is doing this daily.

My previously-placed GTM buy with GLO at 1500 was also hit. I will closely observe GLO in the coming weeks for extreme volatility. Might have a chance for a quick-in-and-out, just for fun.

Im noting of the remarkable resilience of JFC. I was hoping it would dip to 245, so I can buy, but there's strong support even coming from foreigners.

Others in the wishlist (which has a good chance, apologies to all those holding, but at least youll have a chance to add, if ever):
1) PGOLD will go back to 40. The sellers are poised to sell more next week on speculation. I'll enter at 38.
2) for RLC to go to 18, its SRO price. I fucking failed to avail because I was overseas.
3) MPI, I'll buy at 4, regardless of all negative news against it. Its P/E is just too attractive at that price.
4) My TEL position which took a hit is still HOLD. I wont be rattled because of the expected dividend yield even at current level. Will add to current position at 1200-1250 range.
5) Why is MWC being battered down after it comfortably breached 30 just a few weeks ago? Will read-up on this Ayala stock and possibly enter near 20.
6) MEG is also on the downward trend and so volatile. But I will enter at 4 and add successively even if it goes down to 3. So cheap.
7) URC is also getting attractive. Regardless of the negative effect of TRAIN to its products, their product pricing will become stable and consumers will begin buying again once they get a feel of supposedly higher disposable income. 120 is an entry point for me.
8) Eager to get a good entry point to get the index (FMETF) also. I will start at 7K, if indeed it is battered down further. This is still a good adage for newbies and veterans alike: buy the index if you're not confident in beating the market.

I'll add notes on other companies as I read up in the succeeding days.

It's interesting how the other funds did not follow the rattling last week. What will happen next? If the index goes further down, which index stocks will be the most battered to cause it?

Notes on today's bloodbath

I'm not focused on the market for the past few weeks, I just opened now during lunch break and blogging also quickly now.

This is is definitely bringing back excitement. I might be doing weekly trading diary again.

And so..

While--

1. I LIKE our index going down, because it validates the big cash position that I've been keeping already for some time (it's now 85% now if including the position I have in preferred stocks).
2. There's a probability that our index will touch 6800-6900 level on intermediate term. 
3. The uncertainty of TRAIN will bring volatility with downward bias, especially for previous favorites JFC, PGOLD and all other in consumer goods. 

But take note...
There's just one fund who's exiting and wreaking havoc today. 

Yes kids, that's how small our stock market is--one fund who wants out and there's huge bloodbath. Further, there will be panic sellers that will follow. And Technical Analysis (TA) followers who will have no choice, but to sell also will bring down our index further.

BUT think about it. You will profit here for short and intermediate term. You will be further lucky if the timing of your entry coincides to when the one fund finishes unloading. But you cannot time correctly of course, so the best way is still to get value stocks.

For short term, if you want to be safer, get those that have 1) high dividend yield, so you have further 'protection" and/or 2) get

These are ones Im looking I jutted down right now.
1) I think I'll buy AGI in my one port without it. The buyback should shore it up quickly the moment the fund is done unloading.
2) DMC is very attractive at these levels. Close to 5-year low, without any fundamental business reason, and close to 5% div yield.
3) I will still buy the duopoly TEL and GLO, for both dividend and 3 years the new telco would need to cause any dent in earnings (if ever this new telco indeed comes to fruition and not just PR of the admin). More on this on a separate post.

Will definitely buy some today.

Good luck.