SECB--my biggest winner this year

Im writing for posterity that I sold three weeks ago all of my SECB at 23%+ gain. SECB delivered the highest absolute gain for me this year because I accumulated quite a huge chunk since last year (part of the total holdings has been with me for more than a year).

It took some time for the market to digest the growth promise, ambitious plans, and vaunted results (earnings report) on recent quarters, but SECB reached there in the end. I also though the increases were strong and fast this last 6 months, which eliminated my temptation to dispose all at 10%.

Im still beating the index this year, but the gap has been lessened. I was keeping more cash than should have been, while the index bounced already from 6900 to 7300.

My buy posts have been hit! My buy posts have been hit!

Im writing for posterity that my bid posts at AGI at 24 and 23.5 (one tranche each) have been hit. I will accumulate this stock at every one or two peso breaches, even if it tumbles down to 10 PhP per share.

My buys were also hit in MBT at 81 and 80.3. Let's see how hard this bank will be hit again. I bought and bought here last year even if it went down to 70 - 72 range, and then only began selling when it neared 80. 

My add (main port) at 1.50 in FLI  were also hit. I also purchased (comeback) FLI in my nimbler port at 1.51. FLI is a decent-dividend paying property issue, so I will buy and buy even if this goes below 1 peso. 

I placed buys in TEL at 2700, PGOLD at 36.1 and 37.3. 

Looks like the cash position that I rigidly kept will be put to good use use in the coming days. Im not minding much the oil price angle this round that's supposed to be pulling down prices of equities worldwide. Will just need to concentrate on a few favorite, fundamentally-sound, preferably dividend-paying stock. 

If youre short on cash position, it could also be good to cut loss and dispose of your speculative stocks now. The fund could be put to good use somewhere else. 

Noticed that BLOOM went down 9%, MPI back to below 5, SMBPH back to 16 again,... hmmn. Need do a deeper study, sifting, and hunting during the weekend.  

For now, I need to go back to work. Day job beckons. 

WARNING: The foreigners are selling

Whether it is due to Hagupit or low GDP is not that important. 

The more important thing is to ready cash to get in to favorite stocks previously left behind.

My buys in TEL at 2900 and 2800 at one tranche each were hit in a few short days.

Since I don't have time to monitor the market, I will likewise place good-til-cancelled buys on other faves.

The locals are defending. I suspect our countrymen will be successful on other stocks, but will fail on others.

It's should be exciting to observe how resilient are we this round compared to last year.

Pick of the week is FLI

First-off, a warning: I dont get to check the market these days even on weekends, so Im stuck with the mostly BPI's capsule briefs. In this short recap, I check of course the volume and net foreign buying (or selling), and then check separately (at night) in forums specific stocks that they foreigners buy. BPI also usefully includes highlights of earnings report of some company. FLI was highlighted recently for having still an impressive year-on-year top and bottom line increase.

Further, FLI seems to have a healthy dose of foreign buying  I added (to my existing holdings) at 1.57, Im now seeing 1.62-1.63. My bet is the foreign-buying would have fuel until 1.69-1.71. I will unload some at that level, depending on how thick the bid vol vs. sell side. If FLI goes back to 1.55 or less, I'll add more.

On the macro and other possible picks, consistent foreign buying at at least 400 M daily could also mean taking us back to 7400 PSEi and threatening 7600 this time, so continuously watch your favorite index stocks. AGI, SCC, et al. GTCAP and MEG--perennial picks of the week before--have surged ahead and left me. I hope theyll come back in my arms again...

Pick of the week is to wait

The volumes are thin. There's no clear direction. Only buy when conservative buy points are hit. And never buy in a bet-everything poise. You must have funds to average down on your favorite stock, in case you need it.

If you're positive, sell if youre comfortable with the profit. Do not be greedy especially at this time, when foreigners can easily unload and elect to position in bonds again. It will be a deep downturn if this happens, and we must have cash to buy at that point.

Pick of the week for Wk42 is increase Cash position (to minimum 50%), but also follow possible short-term bounce, and get in if your conservative buy points are hit

This is that time of the balancing act, where the confident buyers of fundamentally-solid companies win. Where the right portfolio mix, built at the right entry points, will deliver the money (for that long-planned vacation, for the upcoming kids' school fees, for that hoped-for gadget...)

We might get sold down to 6500-6700 PSEi, so if you don't have at least 50% in cash position to use to start entering at that point, you have to adjust or add funds now.

If you want to be entertained though and have time to monitor, go in and out quick, you can take advantage of expected short-term bounce. How big a bounce? The DOW and SPX will give a clue on how high and how long. (You have to open every morning and check these US indices). But in general, you shouldn't aim for more than 3.5% profit in these hit and run transactions. And then there's should also be a time limit--if you dont get 3.5% in one week, still... get out

Now, for intermediate and long-term, we also shouldn't waste the opportunity to get in on favorite stocks once they get to tasty valuation points. Last year, the big bucks came from our confident conviction in buying MEG, DNL, TA, TEL, AGI, URC, even when they were being sold down hard.

So if we get a chance,
TEL at 2900 is a buy.
AGI at 23 is a one trench buy
SECB at 126 is a buy.
MEG, Im pining for, at 4.3
BPI at 88
SCC at near 100
GLO at 1600 is one tranche entry
DNL at near 10 is one tranche.

Patience, Luke.

Stay at 50% cash and enter your buy points ahead, if you dont have time to monitor closely. Play the short-term bounce if you have time to monitor.

(Bear? And what to do?) Pick of the week is to have cash ready and prepare conservative buying points

There are soothsayers abound again portending doom. It'd be fantabulous for them to be proven wrong, and be exposed as bastards who just want to enter again at good prices. But it is also right to be prudent with your money. 

I know that it was only 2 weeks ago when I wrote that indications point that we are in a bullish period. But since then, the moving average of the PSEi was brought down below where it should it be. It looks like sellers really sold hard when the index reached 7400. It seems that that high point was what many (even retail investors) were waiting for to take profit in droves. Good for those who sold at the very top. Congrats. I only sold a few back then. Sold way more positions yesterday. My profit lower than if I took them a few days ago.

More than bag the highest profit though, my objective now is to have again a substantial cash position and prepare conservative entry points in favorite and fundamentally-strong stocks. When bought at the right support, gains will come in again anyway. There could also be a Santa rally this year (there was none last year). 

First entry at GLO at 1600 remains a pick. MEG at 4.3 would also be very tasty. PGOLD at 32 is also a one-tranche entry. Would also be thankful if I would be given the chance to go back to TEL at 2900. 

Dont be rattled though by the doomsayers. It's still good to have positions remaining in the stocks you believe in (good managers, good growth forecast, fundamentally solid, and preferably dividend-paying) in case they are proven wrong. 

Pick of the week for Wk40 is GLO at 1600

Any one maintaining a respectable portfolio should be always on the lookout for good price entries in TEL and GLO. These two firms maintain a virtual monopoly in the country. And if any of the two dips down after you enter, even if the hit is by negative 10%, it's still ok to average down given the high dividend yield both gives year on year.

In the case of GLO, three foreigners are dumping for some reason. They must be realigning their funds to another 'hot stock' they are training their guns on, rather than abandoning GLO because of a real problem (say on business fundamentals) specific to GLO. And so it's an opportunity to get in for me.

I already entered one tranche today, and then placed a respectable bid size at 1600.

Now, back to work.

Bull!? And what to do?

For posterity, Im writing here that our index reached a record high yesterday. Although it promptly went down due to profit-taking by both locals and foreigners, the uptrend indicator is strong.

I like the now vigorous foreign-buying in AGI. I'll hold even the block I freshly added this week.

I dislike that I dont have MEG anymore. I thought and was hoping it will go nearer for 4, so I can buy again there, but it just surged strong from 4.3. Ah, it's true that any respectable PSE portfolio should have a MEG.

Another perennial favorite (but I dont have at this time) GTCAP also surged to record highs, even with a disclosure of decreasing net income. Growth must still be foreseen in this conglomerate, armed with news from insiders. Im reluctant to enter at this 100+ level, in any case, unless I have that solid info that portends growth.

In any case, what to do right now? What should guide our general moves in the PSE?

Technical Analysts will say that the uptrend is very much intact. That we are in a bull market definitely with the appropriate moving average line above above where it should be above.

But where specifically to place your bets at?

I'd say buy-up and add to a fundamentally-solid issue already thats in your port. Buy up on that stock you have already studied in the past as having promising growth for the next three years. Buy in tranches still, since this might be a reluctant bull.

If you want specifics, Im sticking to the pick of the week.

For 'entertainment,' Im also tempted to go Bazura for short term ... like ELI... one remaining Dr. Tan stock that still hasn't increased enough. For the intermediate period, Dr. Tan should just fold this inside MEG. The only question is at what tender offer?

ELI is not a reco though. Choose your own bazura to gamble in for entertainment. Choose your own Bazura only if you have time to monitor the market.

Pick of the week for Wk39 is AGI (especially if it breaches 26 strongly)

I like my chances in this better diversified conglomerate ("better diversified" as opposed to SMC, for example).

The previous post about how A Tan looks at the different pieces of his conglomerate as complimenting each other adds value to the whole issue.

And at 14 forward P/E, it is also a bargain today.

Further, if it breaches 26 strongly, the TA believers will interpret this as start of recovery. They will come in droves

Enter one tranche, if you wanna be safe.

About PSEi threatening 7400 (two weeks ago), TEL, and unsureness

I've sold my last holding that was showing double-digit gain two weeks ago. Ive been able to harvest that one big winner, TEL, because Ive been holding and averaging down on it even when the issue dipped down to 2600 levels last year.

I began selling when it threatened 3K earlier this year, when I thought it will hit a big resistance. I continued to sell in tranches until just a portion remained. Of course, if I had insider info that TEL will benefit an MSCI rebalancing, I would have held all and then sold in one chunk instead. But I dont have that foresight, and I was comfortable with the +5%, +8%, +10%, then +17% (for the last tranche) profit even if it goes up further from hereon.

Another reason that reinforced my decision to sell is the impression that too few (to me) stocks are taking the index up. It was noticeable that a only a few highly-weighted issues are taking our index higher. Unlike the surge last year when almost overwhelming number of issues were hitting 52-week highs left and right (even second liners like ELI and ROCK were being bought up to record highs early last year), the index increase today could just be funds training their guns on less-than-10 specific stocks.

This should bring unsure-ness, but if you have faith in fundamentally-sound stocks that are stil showing strength (like SECB), there might be another +17% around the corner to enjoy.

Pick of the week for Wk38 is GLOPP. Watch also FLI (buy at 1.45 if this reaches this price)

I didnt expect a preferred stock to trade at this high volume. (Look at Ayala's and the preferred stocks of others, which has zero volume daily), but local funds might have decided to park funds according to the dividend promise of this issue. There could be a +5% here in short term. (Disclosure: I bought a chunk of this issue at offering price, when I was looking to park some excess cash in). But--enter cautiously. Im still not sure about the overall market sentiment. There's net foreign selling the past few days, and many are saying that the index increase today is just technical bounce (a temporary respite from being down consecutive days).

Im also observing FLI. It's a definite add when it reaches 1.45. I like fundamentally-sound, good-current-P/E, second liners like FLI, which also pay generous dividend (at least 4%) annually. If you get stuck, at least you can count on some income.

FLI is definitely better than CPG (which is a good peer for comparison) in this sense. Although I also already entered CPG again at 1.28...

Pick of the week for Wk37 is to rest, relax a bit, and watch muna

If you have elected to sell some SECB from the previous week's pick (which should be showing 10-15% today, and the RSI is too red hot todate), the recommendation to do now is watch.

Don't always fight, watch munaaaaa!

Ive sold all my PGOLD at 36.3, when I saw that the foreigners are still intent to bringing it down, and while it was still showing +3.5% in my main port. Today Ive reentered one tranche too early at 33.85. Im prepared to add another tranche at 32.5. It also appears that we are being given opportunity to buy more of TA, another favorite. Im positioned to add again at 2.3. But this is just me. There are no strong positive indications supporting a conviction to get in.

The more rationale move is to watch if the index intends to continue upward to 7400, or we're stunted at 7300. It's right to anchor your entries based on the general market sentiment. The net foreign buying yesterday breached a very favorable  1 B PhP+, this portends great things, but it still pays to be a bit careful given our current expensive valuations.  

If you're itching to enter, enter in tranches. Dont buy in bulk. 

Ukol kay DNL

Isa itong si DNL sa mga hindi ko na nasubaybayan, dahil sa kakulangan ng oras sa pagtutok, na sanhi naman sa pang-araw-araw na pagkakayod (kung di sin sana'y full-time na lang sa pag-te-trade, pero pantasya pa lang yata ito ngayon sa pinas).  

Subalit matagal ko nang kilala ang DNL, Oleofats, Chemrez at FIC, dahil na rin sa arawang hanapbuhay ko.  Naririnig kong ipinagyayabang ng mga minsang kahuntahang manedyer nila na, sa niche ng mga negosyo ng DNL, ay kakaunti pa lamang ang totoong kakumptensya nila. Totoo naman. 

Sa Chemrez halimbawa, na nagpoproseso ng mga virgin (hindi recycled) na resins para sa mga plastik--na gagamitin naman paglaon para sa mga upuan, lalagyan ng pagkain, bumper ng sasakyan, kutsara't tinidor, atbp.--ay yaong subsidiary pa lang din ni Gokongwei (JG Summit Petroleum) ang nag-iisang kakumptensya. Ganoon din si FIC na nagsusupply ng additive para nadudurog ang mga plastic bag ni SM kapag nabilad (oxo-biodegradable), at nang maka-comply ang plastic bag sa mga ordinansang pabor sa nadudurog na plastik (para di magsanhi ng pagbaha). Kakaunti pa lang din ang may teknolohiya (o partner) para may kumalaban kay DNL dito. 

Samantalang sa bisnes naman ng paghahalo ng kung anu-anong recipe at flavors para sa mga restoran, kailangan nyan ng lubos na pag-aaral, kagalingan. at kaalaman para makapasok ang kung sino mang gusto manggaya o mangumpetensya. Kokonti pa lang din ang nasa larangang ito. Minsan ngang nagyabang ang isang manedyer na ipatikim lang sa kanila ang gustong gayahing manok, aba, magagaya raw nila ang marinate, pati ang breading.

Wari koy'y pinapadala rin ng mga Lao ang kanilang mga emplayado para mag-aral o magseminar o mag-benchmark parati sa ibang bansa nang hindi nagtitipid, taliwas sa aasahan sa isang korporasyon ng mga Chinese. Hindi rin sila takot tumanggap ng mga inhinyero at ispesyalistang galing sa akademya. Nandoon na rin ang pagpabor ng mga Lao sa mga Fil-Chi. Sa isang miting, mapapansin mong nag-uusap ang lahat ng Fookien o Mandarin parati ang mga tao dahil halos iisang profile silang lahat. Hindi rin perpekto ang polisiya at diskriminasyong ito, subalit isa siya sigurong pinasimpleng paraan ni Lao para makakuha ng mga empleyadong bata, marami pang enerhiya, at may malasakit sa misyon at vision ng mga negosyo ng DNL. 

Mga mabilis na halos trivia lamang ang mga ito na ginamit ko mismo para mamili nang mamili nang DNL maski noong sumasadsad sya sa sais. Ang prublema lang, naibenta ko na lahat sila bago mag-diyes. Naniwala akong babagsak muna sya ng malalim bago lampasan ang diyes. Biruin mong, makailang linggo lamang, tumitira pa ngayon nang pa-kinse ang DNL. Parang si Curacha na ayaw magpahinga! 

(walang dudang mali at masyadong maaga ang pagkakabenta nang tatlong beses. pero oks na rin ang kita. nabili ko naman sila sa ibaba ng siyete)

Itong DNL dapat ang sinasabi ni katotong turmukesh ang makakatulong kung gusto mong talunin ang ganansya ng indeks. Di gaaanong kahirap talunin ang ganansya ng indeks dapat, kung naniwala at tumodo sa iilang solidong kumpanya tulad ng DNL. Hindi siya ganoon kahirap basahin ang kanyang pramis, maski noong nakaraang taon, kung tutuusin. Halos hambog na nga ang dating ng mga press release ng isang ito. Kung naniwala at tumodong 50% ito ng portfolio mo, daig mo na agad ang indeks ngayon. Yung nga lang, sa aking kaso, nakabenta lang nang maaga.

Ngayon, ang tanong--oks pa ba bumili ng DNL? Oks pa siguro kapag bubulusok pa ang indeks papunta sa 8000. Ibig sabihin, kung naniniwala kang ang sentimyento sa PSE ay sobrang positibo pa para itulok ang indeks sa 8000, bili ka na dapat ng DNL.  

Pero para sa akin, hanap muna siguro ako nang may 5% at makasundot nang kita sa gilid-gilid. Parang ang MBT halimbawa ay dapat madaling sumulong sa 91 ngayon galing sa 86.

Parang trip ko na rin mambasura saglit kung positibo naman talaga ang pangkalahatang sentimyento sa merkado ngayon. 

Yun ay kung may taym mag-monitor. Wag mambazura pag walang taym. 

Pick of the week is still SECB

I cant have a read the bazuras that are riding high today (e.g IS, MRC), and Ive been disciplining myself not to play with them since getting stuck for a long time--although eventually profiting--from SGI and the likes last year. Unless one has inside information on these companies, we can never really be sure. It's just a dangerous bet to enter without any business info at all. Speculators (modern day thieves) still roam the Philippines stock market and they are unafraid. They wont get caught. Our SEC is toothless and policeless as usual in the PSE.

And so Im staying with SECB as the pick of the week. I think this will attempt to breach again (for the nth time) 129- 130. Add the foreign buying support, SECB could pull away convincingly this time. This is still a bet, but at least we have the fundamentals of SECB to fall back to, just in case the bet's timing is still not right and ripe.