Even if you think that the current price of your favorite stock is already very low, still err on the side of waiting for it to get lower before entering. You might be glad that you bought in what you thought is a good, low, 'discounted' (a la mall sale) price, but that entry point is probably not the bottom at this shaky market conditions. Our small PSE and your favorite company (however strong it is financially) will have no choice but to be influenced by the trend of the bigger stock markets outside.
You want clear guidance on when to enter? Wait until our index reaches 5700ish. This is still -10% below current index level. Reserve your cash for that level.
If you can't really help yourself, enter on high-dividend paying blue chips only--like TEL, GLO, DMC. Check also the Aboitizes's recent dividend yields.
Good luck!
Wednesday, January 20, 2016
Wednesday, January 13, 2016
ALERT: VLL on a 3-year low
Need to read up on why. Why o why, Mr Manny V?
I have one tranche bought at 5. Need to place buy points. Will this further tumble like CPG? It will be like saying that the Villars manage like the Antonio's. I dont think so.
Sunday, January 10, 2016
10 notes and plans on a downtrend
It's time to really activate this blog again, if only to write down my trading diary.
1) Must remember that the Aboitizes are generous in paying out dividend. Have to read up on AP and AEV and put some premium that they will pay between 3 - 4% in divs, regardless of stock market conditions.
Personal disclosure: currently dont have both.
2) GLO at 1600 is a buy, again regardless of market conditions.Also dont have GLO (only GLOPP). Im looking at 1600 as an opportunity that must be grabbed.
3) AGI is failing me, probably because of its gambling arm, which is sour to all investors these days;
4) DMC and SCC are also good dividend payers. Have to read up and establish buy points on both also.
5) TEL's downtrend is not that high compared to other blue chips, probably because it has been hard hit ahead. It is an add somewhere between 1800-1900. I need to be familiar with its dividend rate change.
6) GMA7 has been one of my winners late last year. Rightly bought at around 6 - 6.3 and opportunely sold huge chunks between 7-2 - 7.4. Thank you, Aldub! Need to read up on news on profit projections this election year to know where to add, while it is affected by general market downtrend.
7) As we've written elsewhere, our market is susceptible to a 20-30%% drop in a few short weeks, given global factors that will pull it down. Back in 2013, it indeed tumbled around 23% from peak. If we apply same percentage, bloodbath should stop at 6300. If we suffer more, I would bet minus-30% is tops.
8) To bet money where my mouth is, I will buy FMETF (index-based) and BPI UITF (index based) at 5700, regardless of market conditions.
9) The result of the May elections will be the big, big shadow, demon, or angel that will lift or further bleed our market. It's harder to speculate on this area, but remember we will lose or win based on whoever wins the presidency. Digest this fact.
10) I maintained discipline and have kept my cash position to 50% the past few months. This is done as a risk management lever--a measure against the stubbornness of still being involved in a market threatened by bad global indicators (and obviously not in a clear uptrend). Now, it is time to post some buy points and release some of this cash.
1) Must remember that the Aboitizes are generous in paying out dividend. Have to read up on AP and AEV and put some premium that they will pay between 3 - 4% in divs, regardless of stock market conditions.
Personal disclosure: currently dont have both.
2) GLO at 1600 is a buy, again regardless of market conditions.Also dont have GLO (only GLOPP). Im looking at 1600 as an opportunity that must be grabbed.
3) AGI is failing me, probably because of its gambling arm, which is sour to all investors these days;
4) DMC and SCC are also good dividend payers. Have to read up and establish buy points on both also.
5) TEL's downtrend is not that high compared to other blue chips, probably because it has been hard hit ahead. It is an add somewhere between 1800-1900. I need to be familiar with its dividend rate change.
6) GMA7 has been one of my winners late last year. Rightly bought at around 6 - 6.3 and opportunely sold huge chunks between 7-2 - 7.4. Thank you, Aldub! Need to read up on news on profit projections this election year to know where to add, while it is affected by general market downtrend.
7) As we've written elsewhere, our market is susceptible to a 20-30%% drop in a few short weeks, given global factors that will pull it down. Back in 2013, it indeed tumbled around 23% from peak. If we apply same percentage, bloodbath should stop at 6300. If we suffer more, I would bet minus-30% is tops.
8) To bet money where my mouth is, I will buy FMETF (index-based) and BPI UITF (index based) at 5700, regardless of market conditions.
9) The result of the May elections will be the big, big shadow, demon, or angel that will lift or further bleed our market. It's harder to speculate on this area, but remember we will lose or win based on whoever wins the presidency. Digest this fact.
10) I maintained discipline and have kept my cash position to 50% the past few months. This is done as a risk management lever--a measure against the stubbornness of still being involved in a market threatened by bad global indicators (and obviously not in a clear uptrend). Now, it is time to post some buy points and release some of this cash.
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