Sunday, January 10, 2016

10 notes and plans on a downtrend

It's time to really activate this blog again, if only to write down my trading diary.

1) Must remember that the Aboitizes are generous in paying out dividend. Have to read up on AP and AEV and put some premium that they will pay between 3 - 4% in divs, regardless of stock market conditions.
Personal disclosure: currently dont have both.

2) GLO at 1600 is a buy, again regardless of market conditions.Also dont have GLO (only GLOPP). Im looking at 1600 as an opportunity that must be grabbed.

3) AGI is failing me, probably because of its gambling arm, which is sour to all investors these days;

4) DMC and SCC are also good dividend payers. Have to read up and establish buy points on both also.

5) TEL's downtrend is not that high compared to other blue chips, probably because it has been hard hit ahead. It is an add somewhere between 1800-1900. I need to be familiar with its dividend rate change.

6) GMA7 has been one of my winners late last year. Rightly bought at around 6 - 6.3 and opportunely sold huge chunks between 7-2 - 7.4. Thank you, Aldub! Need to read up on news on profit projections this election year to know where to add, while it is affected by general market downtrend.

7) As we've written elsewhere, our market is susceptible to a 20-30%% drop in a few short weeks, given global factors that will pull it down. Back in 2013, it indeed tumbled around 23% from peak. If we apply same percentage, bloodbath should stop at 6300. If we suffer more, I would bet minus-30% is tops.

8) To bet money where my mouth is, I will buy FMETF (index-based) and BPI UITF (index based) at 5700, regardless of market conditions.

9) The result of the May elections will be the big, big shadow, demon, or angel that will lift or further bleed our market. It's harder to speculate on this area, but remember we will lose or win based on whoever wins the presidency. Digest this fact.

10) I maintained discipline and have kept my cash position to 50% the past few months. This is done as a risk management lever--a measure against the stubbornness of still being involved in a market threatened by bad global indicators (and obviously not in a clear uptrend). Now, it is time to post some buy points and release some of this cash.

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