Trading Diary, Workweek 33

Sold all of UBP that Ive been holding for over a year in my nimble port for around +10% gain. As a result, cash in nimble port now around 60%.

Noting that NIKL is increasing. My position is almost green here because of the opportunistic averaging down close to 5.0. As posted earlier, Gina Lopez is inadvertently doing good for this company, which is also probably already the best-managed mining company in the country. I expect the chartists to enter at 5.9 in droves, also. Im confident in the intermediate for NIKL.

Adding LC at 0.201 appears to be a mistake, but holding whole position as of now. Any catastrophe like bad news on LC's audit or sudden downtrend in gold will make me cutloss everything. For now, hold. But to be transparent, even if this surged up suddenly, I will sell around 0.24 - 0.25, because Lolo for sure will unload there again.

Downtrend in TEL, after ex-dividend, hurting my main port. Added cash position there for possible big average down in TEL. And probable new buy-ins in MEG, TA, and MBT.

Trading Diary, Workweek 32

After all the take-profit moves in SECB, MBT, et al and taking a highest cash position in months. The biggest position in my main port actually became GLOPP, which was bought at issue price of 500. It was showing me high 5 figures paper gain when it was promising at near +10%. Suddenly it was brought down by one seller at 507. This, plus the plunge of TEL (after div ex-date) brought down my remaining paper gain.

But I intend to hold on to GLOPP as my parking lot (or resting place) for extra cash. It is earning 5% per annum, way better than time deposit in any bank.

***

I executed half-cutloss at LC at 0.213 then reentered at 0.201 half of the same position by afternoon.Why I went back after lunch? Gold is still in upward trend.

I'll cutloss everything if there's adverse news. In any case, my profit last May far exceeds my current loss (paper + realized).

***

I added some speculative chunks at 3.36 3.37. 3.4 to my remaining position in GMA7. I have some position remaining after I sold most of it at 6.9--the time it was nearing dividend ex-date earlier this year. I was betting this will continue up to 6.9 again easily given the press release on the big net income jump. But GMA7 instead went back to it sleeping place at 6.3. Will watch this closely in the coming days.

***

My cash in nimble port was reduced to 45%. Main port at around 23%. PSEi is still above 8000 after selldown and no alarming foreign selling (yet). Both are indications to me that our market still has oomph to go to 8500. But Im not eager to deplete cash position in the coming days.

***

I should have bet on WEB early in the morning even if just aiming for grocery money, but I had office work to do and I know I won't have time to focus on the issue all morning.

It went ceiling all right when I checked it at closing, but there's something fishy here. Why would you buy a company that will just be a shell after it's gambling permit is not renewed? So beware newbies! If you'll speculate, make sure you have the time to follow it minute-by-minute to check the trend.

Beware of the ruthlessness of this man, in his quest for money!

He's been doing it since the Marcos era.

Trading Diary, Workweek 31

My GTM buy with TEL at 1910 got hit after the selldown. I was 7% up in my main port (with big positions) before the minus-15% selldown. So, Im suddenly/quickly negative in two days. At the same time, pundits are saying that PLDT is one the mismanaged companies in the Philippines, aligning it to SMC.

I think aligning it to the caliber and steep bureaucracy of SMC is going too far. Bottom line, it's wise and reasonable to place some bets on the other half of a duopoly any time of the year. Besides, we're sure to get +5- 7% dividend yield even if we're jailed in PLDT.

On the speculative side, I also added one tranche in LC, on the expectation that this will approach 0.3 again once Gold threatens to breach 1400 again. Remember, LC was at 0.4 - 0.6 when gold was at 1400+.

But I will sell at 0.3, because I agree that Gina Lopez's powers are greater than any jump in and influence of Au price.

I will execute cut loss if this goes down below 0.21.

Reminder: start of Ghost Month tomorrow

Tomorrow is the start of Ghost Month. Best to check what happened the past 5 years during this month. Note also that the exact date changes every year. Research and analyze.

If it's up to me, I'll reserve sufficient cash. Don't go all in. Then by mid-September, check if momentum of market is upward or down.

Trading Diary, Workweek 30

How are your trades, friends? I will soon make a summation of my ytd. Im barely beating the index, but gains are gains, so Im happy.

Also, if I don't have the discipline to resume my weekly picks, I will at least write short snippets of my own moves, for posterity.

Bought NIKL at 5.5 a few days ago and added at 5.75 today. I now have a decent 3.5-tranch position in NIKL. The uptrend of the metal Nickel itself will drive this company's stock price. In turn, this is all to be triggered, by Gina Lopez's own moves. Talk about irony.

I don't like the vendetta moves of Gina, and judging from her poise, it appears all hours she spends at DENR are focused on mining, mining, mining. (There are other responsibilities in the department, Madame).

And there's also the rumour saying Gina had the hots before for Brimo. Adds fun to the narrative. This is Brimo:

And Gina, the mahjongera-look purveyor, is in the previous post.

If that rumor is true, well indeed it is "Hell hath no fury like a woman scorned!" season for NIKL, and unintentionally the Mahjongera will cause an unintended increase in Nickel prices worldwide, giving the man she hates a windfall to sell his ores higher.

Wow. What a way to unintentionally enriching your crush.

I also added one tranche each in MWC (been holding some tranches for 2+ years already here), AGI, and VLL, just to release cash from recent disposals (all big gains) in SECB, TEL, and MBT.

Im at 50% cash in nimble port, 30% cash in main port, at this moment.

Good luck!

Si Gina Lopez

Nakakatuwa ang mga happenings pagkatapos ianawans ang appointment ni Gina Lopez bilang DENR secretary. Biruin mong bumagsak nang mahigit beinte porsyento ang PX ni MVP. Pagkatapos, sinabihan nyang Elephant in the Room si Gina. Ininterpret naman ito sa mga forum na sinabihan na mukhang elepante si Gina Lopez. Sinong babae nga naman daw ang matutuwa kapag ikinumpara sa isang Elepante?, dagdag pa ng isang forumer. Di naman singtaba ng elepante si Manay Gina. O baka naman singkulubot na ng elepante ang balat ni Manang?

Hahaha. Hindi naintindihan ng maliliit na investor ang metaphor.

"Elephant in the room" or '' Elephant in the living room' is an English metaphorical idiom for an obvious truth that is going unaddressed. The idiomatic expression also applies to an obvious problem or risk no one wants to discuss.

Heniwey,di naman singtaba o mukhang elepante si Regina Lopez.

Sa ganang akin, mukha lang syang mahjongera.

O di ba? Ready to Siete Pares?

Ang gusto ko ring makita sana ay kung saan nag-aral si Gina Lopez at ano pa ang ibang credentials n'ya bukod sa mambangay sa public forums (paki-google ang MVP- Gina Lopez "You're Lying! video. Nakakaaliw rin yon).

Magmamahjong lang ba sya sa DENR at magdidissaprub ng lahat ng Mining permits? Maraming trabaho sa DENR bukod sa pagsuheto sa mga minahan, Ma'am. Bagamat talaga namang ang mga naglalakihang minero ay mapangwasak ng kapaligiran kapag hindi nabantayan.

Pero ano ang mangyayari sa istaks ng LC, PX, atbp? Bumulusok pataas na dapat ang mga ito dahil sa Brexit, pero mukhang mas matigas ang pwersa ni Elephant or Mahjongera Gina.

Basta ako tumaya muli sa LC nang konti sa 0.246. Konti lang. Hwek hwek.

Titi't Pakyu ni ALT

Bibihira makita ang ganire sa larangan ng charting. 

Etits plus pulandit formation!

Pakyu ka phenomenon sa bolyum!

Nawa'y hindi kayo nabiktima ng mga mandarambong. 

Tandaan: sa bawat pagbenta ninyo nang palugi man o may kita, may katumbas na bumili sa kabila. 

At sa lahat ng pagbili ninyo, may katapat na nagbenta sa kabila, kumita man sila o nalugi. Hindi lang galing sa wala ang lahat! (Maraming nagmamagaling na 'alchemists' na naman kuno sa mga forum). 

Sa pagkakataong ito, mukhang may malalaking nag-ala CAL na naman at nanira at namakyu ng madla. Pinagkakitaan mila ang mga maliliit na mamimili. Kakalungkot kung mga nagsusumikap sa trabaho pa ang mga nabiktima. Wag kasing mambasura kapag si pa sanay sa sundot-konti-tapos-alis-agad method.

Wow, BPI Prexy, you discovered this just now?

This passage of newly-discovered wisdom glared at me, while I was catching-up on my disclosures reading. Minus points in my perception of Consing.

Pick of the week is patience on your entries

Even if you think that the current price of your favorite stock is already very low, still err on the side of waiting for it to get lower before entering. You might be glad that you bought in what you thought is a good, low, 'discounted' (a la mall sale) price, but that entry point is probably not the bottom at this shaky market conditions. Our small PSE and your favorite company (however strong it is financially) will have no choice but to be influenced by the trend of the bigger stock markets outside.

You want clear guidance on when to enter? Wait until our index reaches 5700ish. This is still -10% below current index level. Reserve your cash for that level.

If you can't really help yourself, enter on high-dividend paying blue chips only--like TEL, GLO, DMC. Check also the Aboitizes's recent dividend yields.

Good luck!

ALERT: VLL on a 3-year low

Need to read up on why. Why o why, Mr Manny V?

I have one tranche bought at 5. Need to place buy points. Will this further tumble like CPG? It will be like saying that the Villars manage like the Antonio's. I dont think so.

10 notes and plans on a downtrend

It's time to really activate this blog again, if only to write down my trading diary.

1) Must remember that the Aboitizes are generous in paying out dividend. Have to read up on AP and AEV and put some premium that they will pay between 3 - 4% in divs, regardless of stock market conditions.
Personal disclosure: currently dont have both.

2) GLO at 1600 is a buy, again regardless of market conditions.Also dont have GLO (only GLOPP). Im looking at 1600 as an opportunity that must be grabbed.

3) AGI is failing me, probably because of its gambling arm, which is sour to all investors these days;

4) DMC and SCC are also good dividend payers. Have to read up and establish buy points on both also.

5) TEL's downtrend is not that high compared to other blue chips, probably because it has been hard hit ahead. It is an add somewhere between 1800-1900. I need to be familiar with its dividend rate change.

6) GMA7 has been one of my winners late last year. Rightly bought at around 6 - 6.3 and opportunely sold huge chunks between 7-2 - 7.4. Thank you, Aldub! Need to read up on news on profit projections this election year to know where to add, while it is affected by general market downtrend.

7) As we've written elsewhere, our market is susceptible to a 20-30%% drop in a few short weeks, given global factors that will pull it down. Back in 2013, it indeed tumbled around 23% from peak. If we apply same percentage, bloodbath should stop at 6300. If we suffer more, I would bet minus-30% is tops.

8) To bet money where my mouth is, I will buy FMETF (index-based) and BPI UITF (index based) at 5700, regardless of market conditions.

9) The result of the May elections will be the big, big shadow, demon, or angel that will lift or further bleed our market. It's harder to speculate on this area, but remember we will lose or win based on whoever wins the presidency. Digest this fact.

10) I maintained discipline and have kept my cash position to 50% the past few months. This is done as a risk management lever--a measure against the stubbornness of still being involved in a market threatened by bad global indicators (and obviously not in a clear uptrend). Now, it is time to post some buy points and release some of this cash.

The Franchise Awakens

PROS

1) Abrams brought back the "plane-ness" of the vista. Lucas knows that he was being illogical when he made the prequel more advanced ("hay-tek," ika nga nila) than the sequels. Too much eye candy in Revenge of the Sith, et al. Abrams straightened out this wrong.
2) The Star Wars that is not afraid to pull-in strong emotions is back.
3) The evil-ness of the villains was portrayed well. It was not too mild or too forced.
4) Harrison Ford is Han Solo. Bringing him, Leia, and Luke back is already a great achievement. Them delivering on their performance furthers the achievement.
5) I like the inter-racial angle brought up. This is one facet that upgrades the franchise (it's not pure homage, ladies and gentlemen). If a gay alien comes up, it would also be welcome.


CONS

1) I thought the the female and black leads were overacting in many scenes. I dont know if Abrams deliberately sought this to reflect the late-70's and early 80's level of acting, but still it disturbs me.
2) They should have given more time for Chewie after that cataclystic event. It was an emotional grenade for our favorite Wookie. It should have been shown on screen and let the audience cry more.

I was born after the first Star Wars, but I caught up with Betamax. Seeing this movie at the same texture and feel as the first three is refreshing. Thank you and congrats to Abrams, Kasdan, Arndt, Disney, and the whole cast. We clapped in the theaters.

Im sure Rian Johnson will further up the ante. He directed the best of the best Breaking Bad episode, after all.

The owners are buying, foreigners still selling

The foreigners are still selling (by the billions at that), but our market is demonstrating resiliency. Resiliency to the point that the bounce is high and seemingly persistent. Why is this?

It pays to read disclosures and you can see that the owners are buying. the Cos of PGOLD, the Laos of DNL, even the Concepcions are buying. This means that they think that their company was cheap after the steep sell-down, and that the their business is still growing.

I have PGOLD, MBT positive as a result. (MEG should have been in this list). Thinking of selling at +5% (going back to that strategy, yes), until the foreigners start at net buy, however small it is, just so long at it is consistent.

Notes on the bloodbath

WEALTH is still selling hard. Where will this fund put their money? Are they placing all their eggs on a FED rate increase this year? is this local fund using the money to bet against the PhP?

I should have added fast on MEG fast and sold at +5%, but I did not.

Added on TA at 1.7. Studying DNL.

Added on PGOLD at 30.

50% cash position now just 20ish %. Ready to add more cash in fund, if needed.

My bet is that our market will disentangle for China's. As long as the OFW's are still sending in money and there is no local bubble, I wont get out of equities. Remember: these are the same companies with the same markets as before the downtrend. (It's a different tune though if there's going to be another regional crisis);

Im back to zero year to date. But I won't forget that the big gains I harvested in 2014 was from when our index increased from 5800 to 7400 in just over 12 months. When stocks like TA rose from very deep at 1.4 to 2.4, SECB from 110 - 160, etc.

I'll be doing weekly picks again.

Doomsday!

I have to go back from my hiatus to write about what's happening in the 3-hour stretch in our stock market.

They have been feeling this in China months ago, it seems the funds are saying it's our turn.

BUT the funny thing is--the leading sellers that our bringing us down are LOCALS--Wealth and COL, ladies and gentlemen. We have to ruminate on this.

As readers of this blog knows, my trading is a series of placing good-to-cancel sell and buy points after or before office hours and only got to peek usually on lunch breaks. I have a hectic day job, incidentally, in one of the blue chips. Imagine my surprise when I saw today MEG being brought down in double figures!

In the mean time, my buy points in MBT, AGI, PGOLD, and TEL have been hit today. I still have plenty of cash position. Now, selectively choosing where to add.

My gains this year are all erased! But on one side, it's exciting to blog again!