Cash coming in handy

The past few months we've been advocating here healthy cash position. If you have stuck with 50% cash as we did, your portfolio shouldn't have been slaughtered, but instead the past few weeks should be bringing some excitement for us being given the opportunity again to re-enter the favorites at good prices.

So, when is the right time to enter again? If you want to be ultra-safe and if you have time, you have to monitor daily the foreign-selling. It must abet and turn into buying in majority of stocks, and not just select few. Do not be tricked into buying a particular stock being bought by one foreigner only (like JPMORGAN) and then being sold by two or more (like DEUTSCHE and MACQUAR). At least three must be buying again.

We are being told thogh that the sell-off today could be in preparation for the US Fed's upcoming rate increase. If this is the case, and again if your method is ultra-safe, you'll have a lot more waiting time to expend. Remember--the foreigners can bring down our market by -20% in a few short weeks.

But if you mix-in some value investing in your style, as I do, you should be placing one-tranche buy now on favorite stocks. MBT at 82, TEL at 2600, PGOLD at 35.5, FLI at 1.65, SECB at 140, are all one tranche buys. (Note to self: review old picks of the week). The old adage be greedy when others are fearful still applies. If you want for safety factor blended in, buy dividend paying only.

Remember the ones that paid your vacations last year. They are the same companies fundamentally that will jump back up first and deliver again another El Nido or Cebu trip and the tasty lechon to eat.

Waiting for 7400

(Found this in my draft--better to post anyway, even if late)


This is just me--

I've been sitting on a big cash position for weeks now, and Im waiting for the index to go back to 7400 before entering big again. Why 7400? That was a previous "double-top resistance" as TA believers would call it. That's also the point where we'll lose -10% from record high. A bounce is what I expect from there.

The thing that's worrying though is the consistent foreign-selling, which is happening for weeks now. Do not forget that the foreigners can bring down our market by -20% in a few short days. If that happens again, we'll see ourselves nearer to 6000 in no time. 

Yes, this big dip happened in 2013, because there was a major pronouncement from the Bernanke and the FED. When you think about it, there might be another announcement coming soon. Just keep in mind that the foreign funds will be ready to exit mercilessly any time they see "better" use for their money. 

Padayon, Manny. Laban!

We don't call you Pacman here. Just a man deserving to be idolized for his hardwork.

I did not buy PPV, because there seems to be bad luck every time I spend for it rather than join the masses in a movie theater or in regular tv. Anyway, I might try streaming.

The force be with you, man. Sugod! Depensa! Sugod ulit!

Pick of the week is MPI

Grab two tranches.

Foreign buying is big and obvious.

Kamamahal na, subalit umaarangkada pa rin

Kumusta na ang mga portfolio ninyo, mga katoto?

Nakikinabang ba sa pag-arangkada ng indeks? May hawak pa rin ba ng mga istaks katulad nang URC, DNL, at iba pang tirada nang tirada pa rin ngayon ng all-time high nila? Congrats sa inyo kung ganire ang sitwasyon ng port ninyo. Iba talaga pag nanalig sa matitibay na kumpanyang may matinding paglago, paglawak, and pag-alagwa pa nang bisnes sa kung saan-saang bagong produkto o saan-saang bagong bansa.

Subalit--nakakabahala na rin. Nasasayang man ang oportunidad, di na rin maikakaila na kamamahal na ng ating paboritong istaks kumpara sa kanilang kita ngayong taon. Ang JFC halimbawa ay nasa kuwarenta na ang P/E. Nakakanerbiyos na pumasok o magdagdag pa.

Kung titignan ang table sa ibaba halimbawa, ang mga may green na lang ang maganda-ganda pa ang P/E. (Wag na lang pansinin ang mababang P/E ng San Miguel. Kadami ng utang ng kumpanyang yan. At di pa ko bilib kay Mechanic, sabi ko nga sa dating post).

TEL, MBT, at MEG ang may kumpiyansa akong pumasok pa, kung talagang aalagwa pa pataas ang market natin.

Handa rin ako magbenta na kung biglang may dausdos ng bentahan ang mga banyaga,

Pick of the week patience to wait for old, reliable, favorites to be more attractive again...

There's some hopin and wishin in this week's pick.

PGOLD is being sold down by foreigners. I'll buy at 39, then 38, 37, and so on.

TEL appears rearing to go down as well. I'll stat buying again at 2700.

Apologies to those holding. Just rearing to clear some cash.

No time to look at other stocks. I just placed GTM buys on both.

Patalastas muna

–Sir mukhang marami kayong lamig sa katawan, wag kang mag-alala tatanggalin ko lahat yan
–Uy salamat
–Mukhang pagod na pagod kayo sir ah san ka nagtatrabaho
–Wala pa trabaho. Nag-aaral pa lang. Stress ng term papers lang siguro yang nahahawakan mo.
–Madalas ka ba dito sir
–Hindi ngayon lang, nalibre lang nang barkada.
–Talaga sir.
–Oo. First time. Kinakabahan nga ako sayo.
–Ba’t ka kinakabahan sir, ikaw naman. May misis ka na ba.
–Wala pa. ambata ko pa, college pa lang.
–Gelpren, sir?
–Wala rin akong gelpren. Walang pandeyt at oto. Puros may mga oto lang ang nagkakagelpren
–Hindi naman siguro ako kahit jeep lang ang date basta mabait sir.
–Wag mo akong tawaging sir. Mahirap lang kami,
–Ako rin mahirap kaya nga andito.
–Bat angganda nang boses mo.
–Palabiro ka.
–Hindi nga.
–Pihit na nga. Tihaya na.
–Ang ganda ganda mo. Akin ka na lang.

O, baka magkaideya kayo kung san gagastusin yang kinikita sa istaks ha 

Picks of the week for WK12 is to HOLD the AGI and MWC that you've bought, and then TEL. at 2602

AGI could have fuel until 29 to 31. I'll probably sell all at 29 and some cents

MWC seems changing and consolidating hands in preparation for a move upwards. Although not that convincing.

If I have to choose between the two, only AGI's move up is probable. Foreign buying in AGI was solid and with conviction the past few days.

GMA7-- might need to cut loss at 6.5.

I also placed a buy in TEL at 2602. This is one of the stocks Im eager to go back to again and again and again. And it's lucky for our trading style that it moves in a channel rather than leaves you after you sell. Whatever happens, I'll start accumulating again from that price point (may be even at 2700). Remember--TEL gives divs, big enough to give you gain even if its price rests lower for longer vs. your entry point.

WARNING: SPECULATIVE. Picks of the week for Wk11 is slight buys on issues with apparent foreign buying

There's a "Warning: Speculative" in the title, but aren't all stock purchases speculative? Well, this only means that I see risks here more than our normal picks of the week.

Anyway, I suggest you make a criteria to sift through # of foreign brokers buying the stock that youre eyeing, before you get in. For my own, if I see three foreign brokers like UB, JPMORGAN, and DEUTSCHE appearing together in the net buy side, inside the top 6 buyers, thats significant.

I havent peeked through that many stocks yet. but in the group that I saw, I liked the foreign buying that I see in AGI so I added (buy up) one tranche more. AGI is our pick this week, together with two speculative picks.

Not, in these two other 'extra' picks, you should enter at your risk... but arent all buy at own risk, you say?

In any case, be ready to cut loss when you suddenly see yourself holding -8% in a few days. On the other hand, when you see a profit. sell also as quickly... the extra picks are

...GMA7 and MWC! Buy a few tranches each then follow closely.

James K Nava will blog on GMA7 in Filipino, I'll do a separate post on MWC.

Index uptrend intact?

For fun, let's validate if the runup of the PSE index is still intact based on one Technical Analysis (TA) concept that's fairly easy to follow.

The check is through MACD analysis. The requirement is actually just a quick glance to see whether or not the short term moving average (orange macd in the most bottom graph below) is above the intermediate moving ave (violet) and long term (green). If the orange is above the other two, that's good, the uptrend is suppose to be "holding."

Further in TA parlance when any of these lines cross, it is an important event.

This means we should have bought some time end-December when orange line crossed intermediate-term (violet) and bought even ore when orange crossed green (long-term). 

Same principle applies when lately orange crossed below violet when you should have sold the index, if you are trading only for the short and medium term. You should have gained minimum 7.5% through this system. If you are in it for the longer term, you should still be holding because the orange line is still above the green, and moreover, orange is threatening once again to cross above intermediate just last Friday.

Not that hard to follow, aint it? It is also not that hard to do as well given that BPI and most other banks have UITF anchored on index today that you can quickly invest in online. FMETF also exists and can be traded in the PSE. Youre not any more relying on bogus fund managers who pick speculative LC, DMPL, and the likes that can deplete your hard earned money.

But among the problems in using this method is 1) when the index breaks down too fast and too hard. You might not have the time to pull out. 2) You wont have the chance as well to "beat the market" (beat the index) on the basis of your own belief on companies and strength of your own research. It also doesnt take into account how expensive (can be interpreted as how 'scary' in terms of risk/reward) already is the market, and 3) the lines might be crossing too often in a volatile market, every investment just becomes virtually casino bets.

As Ive written elsewhere, Im not a full believer in TA. Im more into the value of the company (I wont call it pure value investing yet a la Buffett) and the caliber of the people that run the company. I also get a bit of 'entertainment'--I get fulfilment and satisfaction in managing my money myself rather than just allowing the market or another fund manager to do it for me.

To compensate, I invest in UITF that is based on index invested on the side, but the bulk of the funds are still divided between a nimble 'short-term' traded portfolio (brokerage under BPI), and intermediate and longer-term under Firstmetrosec. It works for me. Although Im not beating the index year to date, it brings me fulfilment to pick and put money where my talk is.

Pick of the week for Wk10 is to ready cash

My bet is that index will go down 5-8% from yesterday before going up and successfully breaching 8K. So my bet is there will be a chance to get in at cheaper valuations. What's my basis on this belief? Nothing solid. Only that the foreign buying is small and scattered. There's no consistent push even across index issues.  And then the volume is also distributed to bazurs rather than blue chips or solid second liners. The atmosphere is partially speculative than a consistent rise (on the backdrop of growing corporate earnings, as newspapers say, or otherwise)

If you have TEL, AC, GLO, other big index contributors in green, sell.

But if you bought PGOLD, like I did when it dipped to 38, hold muna. There might be fuel until 45-48.

Also, if youre still holding the likes of SECB,SCC, GTCAP, ABS, DNL and picks, which are now showing all-time highs after all-time-highs, congratulations. It's up to you how long term is really long term. If you think funds that placed in them has no other better chance elsewhere, yes youo can still hold. In any case, your paper gain is already impeccable and hard to erase (save for a major crisis or a dreaded Black Swan).

Just make sure you'll have the extra cash to deposit when the prices become more attractive.

Live Long and Prosper

"Insufficient facts always invite danger."

I was not as old to have caught the original series, but have read up a lot on the Trekkies from college until now. Nimoy's contributions in actionable (although cold) logic, pride in being nerds (although not knowing how to sing or dance), dignity in introspection (rather than pure gut feels), are beyond TV. It makes people that choose logic above else proud. And yes, in trading stocks, it's better if there is zero emotion. 

Thank you, Mr. Spock. 

Seed, retreat, harvest, in-and-out, push, take, reentry, prune, harvest again

Writing a quick entry on trading moves since December--

After I wrote this post back in December, I was alarmingly back to 10% cash in both nimbler and main ports from all the buy points that have been hit. Some were fresh buys, others additions to existing positions. But almost ALL these buys turned out hugely profitable, overall.

MBT buys at 82, 81, 80.3, 78.5, 79, at one tranche each were all sold at 93.

Adds in FLI, where I suddenly found my position ballooning to 16 tranches were sold at 1.69, 1.73 and 1.75. Im holding only 4 tranches now, still showing 5%+ positive as of today.

Earned in TEL at +9%, GLO at 6% (yes, I sold wrongly/very_early here).

The biggest winner is in LRI at close to +30% on 4a  tranches bet.

UBP at a quick entry in 70.5, then sell at 72 (placed ahead as usual) in a few days were also profitable. I knew there was a swing up happening in banks.

Three tranches in perennial favorite TA bought at 2.25, 2.23, 2.22 were all sold at 2.44.

Four tranches in PGOLD were also profitable--accumulated at 37.8 - 39 range, then sold at 42.

All the buy and sell points were placed ahead (GTM), usually evenings. I did not have the time to trade and observe daily given the hell demands of day job. Save for a quick cursory look in forums when meetings at the office became boring, I was not opening my two brokerage accounts at all, but apparently I was trading actively.

Among the winners who were showing a strong upward trend, I was only able to buy up in MBT at 86 and PGOLD at 39. Buying up is a discipline that I need to improve on.

I did not participate in any bazura like CAL and IS, although the forums are teeming with praises and potential bonanzas on them. Obviously, they were not needed.

Since reaping profits, I bought again (one or two tranches) in AGI, TA, LRI, FLI, when they went down. These reentries are now showing green. Old MWC is also still showing green, but Im not selling it until disclosure on the recent application for water rates increase comes out. I also still trust the management of Ablaza.

Everything should have been hunky-dory, and I surely should be beating the index year-to-date; there should have been vacation money again, if not for the huge sell-down in BEL and MCP. I cut-loss at MCP at -12.5% on three tranches, and still holding a big 22 tranches of BEL (averaged down here; did not cutloss). The bets on these two are based on
1) the opening of the City of Dreams Manila, which I also checked out, and seems to be showing promise given all the sugarols inside (90% of them Filipinos, disheartening to know... more on this in a later blogpost).
2) My man, Scorsese's commercial (one of my top 3 Directors of all time!)

3) BEL's high dividend yield
4) BEL's disclosure that they are going to buy back shares.
5) MCP's media blitz with Stanley Ho's son and Packer leading the charge no less.
But all the positive things were thwarted obviously by the Chinese government.

And so, the index year to date is showing 7.55%, while Im barely making 5%. Im also back to 50% cash position in both ports.

+2.55% is a lot of catching up to do, but Im not willing to bet all-in in just one stock or dabble in bazura to beat it. Better to be conservative since P/E of the index is already at a very expensive 22, and bazuras, well, they are still bazuras. If youre still holding index issues, I'll be leaning towards unloading all as PCOMP nears 8000. If you have a bazura showing more than 10%, sell already for goodness's sake!

Affinity and Biases

"We feel an affinity with a certain thinker because we agree with him; or because he shows us what we were already thinking; or because he shows us in a more articulate form what we were already thinking; or because he shows us what we were on the point of thinking; or what we would sooner or later have thought; or what we would have thought much later if we hadn’t read it now; or what we would have liked to think but never would have thought if we hadn’t read it now."

— Lydia Davis

SIDE COMMENT: This is actually one whole short story by Lydia. If you loved it and its length, you should buy The Collected Stories of Lydia Davis. That book will give you tons of reading pleasure.

For Newbies--

There are 'predators' (out to get your money) scattered in forums that are presenting themselves as oh-so experts. And they are experts indeed in phrasing their recommendations according to what appeal to your biases. Usually an issue that is lightly-traded (bazura) will be recommended for an upcoming big jump up, because the item is ultra-solid fundamentally, and that management have something up their sleeve, that good news is coming soon, and that this issue will yield 30 - 100 % in few short weeks. And that you should enter now before the increase starts, etc. These persons will also add something about earning big bucks recently from this issue, or compare the upcoming jump to another stock that made a similar leap, and where before they rode and where they gained hundreds and thousands of profit a few months ago--implicitly saying that you should join them on the bonanza this round.

Be careful taking advise. You should know yourself. Before acting on a recommendation, stop and reflect/self-introspect--what personal bias (greediness, tolerance for risk, for example) is being strummed in you? Sometimes they even dare--are you brave enough? You can double your money in one month if you are brave enough! (And who wouldnt answer yes, I want! Im brave! I want money! Money!)

When an honest reco should be asking--do you have time to do research yourself and read disclosures first?

In general, be suspicious if they are recommending bazurs (very lightly traded). If you decide you want to get in anyway with PHA, MACAY, TUGS, and other obscure issues, do it by all means for the adventure. (There are also manipulators' favorites like CAL, BHI, MED). Just make sure you have the stomach to cutloss--accept defeat--when the fall is impending deep and apparent. And again, only get in in Bazura when you have the time to monitor.

Pick of the week for Wk9: LRI (buy a bit also of AGI)

First a word of warning: my own style prevents me from buying up already expensive stocks, so Im wary in endorsing DNL, for example, or buying up DNL if you already have one. Those methods could suit perfectly these times when the PSE is on a tear to attempt to breach 8000, but that is not in my personal disposition to pursue.  

And so my pick this week is LRI 

LRI will open their new cement processing plant soon. This will immediately add to the top and bottom lines of the company. It's also heartening to see foreigners maintaining buying interest here last week, and that the trading volume in this issue is still high. 

For medium term, construction in the Philippines is still booming (a big contributor to the GDP good news). And Cement should be one of the main beneficiary of this continuing boom. When a bubble is detected, then LRI and MEG and the rest will go down, down. down. But so far, no indication of a bubble yet.

Disclosure though,
1) I already profited here. I sold all my position (four tranches) in this stock at a hefty +29% gain just a few days back, and reentered one tranche at 10. Im waiting to add at 9.8 and 9.5.
2) Im also waiting and personally, secretly, pining for a bubble so those condos would be priced right, so I can buy one near office.

***

I will also probably buy back the chunk of position (5 tranches) of AGI that I sold at 25.25. Re-entry price shall be near 24 or 24.5. This is on the belief that this conglomerate should catch up soon to its peers.