Random Thoughts

1) I thought Bernanke and Yellen were very clear that tapering will not start until unemployment is firmly 6.5% or better. Latest report is best at 7%. 0.5% is still a big gap, which would probably need a 3 months more time to close. But the funds are withdrawing in droves now. Are they preparing ahead? Are they foreseeing that this will be closed sooner than 3 months? Or are they betting that the FED will break their word and taper even before reaching that target? (The Fed of course is also being looked at now by Congress for having accumulated a very fat balance sheet from printing and printing money).

2) Im sure many countrymen are shell-shocked and frustrated with this tapering news that has been hanging on our heads for 6 months now. Those that are already nursing negative 20% paper loss (or more) sure are saying to just get over with it already.

3) If not for the profits that I took from MEG, MBT, et al that I took during the small upturns, and the cash position that Ive maintained, I'll be shell-shocked myself.

Profits bagged in August-October provided some luxury and mindset to cut-loss freely on Haiyan-hit EDC and FGEN. And in our small-sized PSE, it's even more important (than vastly-sized NYSE or Hang Seng markets, for example) to maintain a 30% cash position always. Before entering a new position, you must be thinking at the same time the cash outs that must be done in another. It also helps to keep only a small number of stocks in your portfolio in uneven times. More than 10 is already difficult especially if the overall sentiment is strong bearish, and the impending right move is to cut-loss.

4) My own bet is that tapering will not start until February, but what I think is moot. What the bigger fund managers think are what's important. We should ride the wave of their thoughts.

5) My small moves the past two weeks was partially influenced in disbelief that we're back to square one, like it's January 2012 in PSEi like there were no good news, no stellar gdp reports, no upgrades from Moody's et al, that happened throughout the year. I think we must get at least +10% from Jan 1 to Dec 31, 2013. We must end above 6100 by Dec 29?

PSEi surged up, but...

...foreign investors were still net sellers at Php2.92 billion.

I was surprised to read this, and that statement says a lot. The foreign funds are firm on their disposition regarding our stock market vis-a-vis the potentia QE taperingl. Are local fund managers just window dressing at this time? Or we can now stand on our two feet without relying on the bullish thrust from foreigners? We all know that when foreigners want to buy up, they really buy up with conviction. If they want to sell, well...

I have some green in AGI, and almost-green in GTCAP from stubborn averaging down. I would probably sell partial tomorrow. I hope to be able to see some other greens also before the FED's press conference Thursday morning. 

AGI is tempting, MBT is tempting, but...

Many favorites are oversold (some severely oversold), but better stay out if you dont have the time. If youre itching for a play, then play with these fundamentally-solid stocks. Only, you must be vigilant and cut immediately if you see a -3% instead of the hoped for bounce.

The stronger force is the FED meeting which will happen late next week. Watch out for the press conference Friday morning (our time). Although Yellen and Bernanke played it very clear that they wont taper the QE until the unemployment rate in the US reaches below 6.5% (theyre still on 7 today), the speculators and fund managers still appear to want to exit early and fast. Then the technical followers also began following in droves as moving averages and supports are breached. Locals are included in this herd selling and there are still many of them still poised to sell on rallies.

And so, the safest route is still to be in the sidelines.

Grabacious... but tempting

I didnt have the time the whole day to look at the market, so I was surprised to see a -2% after opening my online trading account.

Funds are exiting because of the upcoming FED meeting and the potential taper that has been haunting us since mid-year. Amazing how we're back again to where we started at the beginning of the year. It seems like there was no good news in terms of GDP throughout 2013. I find this hard to swallow, but there you go.

As probably most of you, Im also stuck with my pets at negative 8 to 12% already with averaging down imputed. It's good that I maintained 30% cash. Im now tempted to participate in the

AGIat 10 P/E I think is a bargain. Other companies like ROCK at 6 P/E I think will be bought by insiders asap. I think I'll already get in in some stocks. MBT at 7 P/E is a candidate for average down. I hope I find some time to participate in the market tomorrow.

Good luck on your trades. All will depend on your personal tolerance.

Pick of the Week for WK50: Cash... stay on the sidelines

The foreigners are either absent or selling in small tranches. Because of the low volume of trades, our index a being jittered to lower. It's not worth to gamble in especially if you have a day job.

Ive been getting in on some favorite stocks but only on minimum tranches. And these stocks are dividend-paying for protection.

But in general, stay in cash, stay in the sidelines.

Pick of the week for Wk 49: TEL

If you've already sold and took the gains from MBT, the safest thing to do is stay with cash and wait for an uptrend indicator (check moving averages) before getting in.

The next safest move is to wait for good buy prices on MEG and other 'reliable' favorites. (Remember: they are "reliable" because the company is fundamentally sound).

But if you are really eager to enter some position, buy TEL.

It's current forward P/E is just 15, significantly below 18 P/E of PSE index. The past 12 months, it was unusual for TEL to have market valuation below index. Also, its only competitor GLO is already trading at 21.5 P/E. Either TEL will catch up in short term or it will be the among the first stock to jump up the moment we are on a general uptrend. (Probability-wise, an uptrend must happen within the year or there is really another debilitating bad news for our country).

On top of these positive factors, as mentioned before, TEL is paying out 4-6% dividend annually. Above any time deposit rate from any bank. This offers margin of safety, even if your disposition is a trader rather than an investor.

If you're going to get in this week...

... it will be for momentum moves and/or the hope of the end-year and Jan-Mar upsurge will start.

If indeed you'll buy in, choose low P/E solid companies and non-lightly-traded companies. Select those that trade preferably at 50 M average a day.

Choose also those that have no negative news hanging on their heads--NOT the companies supposed to be affected by Yolanda. Also not those have current or impending debt issues (some of our companies might be issuing too much bonds too fast this year without any immediate use for the cash that they will raise). Also not those having negative development on their businesses

Check around. There are even blue chips that are trading below 10 P/E, like last week's pick MBT. If MEG flirts back to 3.0ish, it's P/E will also kiss 10, so that will be a strong buy as well.

Beloved TA is still being battered. Ive cut some position here last week to raise cash and will buy strong if it reaches 1.35 (again, it will be below 10 P/E at this price point).

I played VLL and BHI to profit last week, but I did that only after being sure that I will have time to follow the market.

If you do not have the time, the safer option is still to wait for more uptrend. Wait for index to cross all the significant moving averages.

Pick of the week for Week 48: MBT, but stay out of PSE in general

MBT is oversold without significant reason (based on fundamentals). I think there is going to be  a significant bounce in this stock in the coming 14 days. The 8 P/E is also too good to pass up.

But in general, we should stay on the sidelines. Foreign funds wanting to exit our market is too obvious, too visible. Just open one blue chip and observe. They want to unload and prepare cash for elsewhere.

Relax and watch your favorite solid stocks become bargains

I don't know why I'm more relaxed with this round of sell down compared to the one that happened in June. Is it because there's greater comfort in the greater probability that this is the last downtrend before we get back to our steady increase? We're not in a recession, remittances will pour in, our GDP will recover, even the donations for the provinces that was hit by Haiyan should prop up the industries in the Vismin to its feet.

It's important now to observe our solid favorites and get in with conviction when we know it's undervalued. GTCAP at 750 is a buy. TEL at 2600 is a buy. RLC will bounce back upwards from 19, in all probability, AGI at 23 is a strong buy, PGOLD at 38 is an invitation. MBT at this time is undervalued, I already added. It's time to check P/E's, graphs (should be on the lookout especially on previous strong supports), and realign portfolio. Cut-loss on the weak, speculative stocks (that was fun to play with before) and transfer money to solid ones.

Ive cut severely on EDC, FGEN, some small LC, MWC, and already made transfers to MBT, MEG, TEL, et al. It's good to have fewer stocks to observe at this time, regardless is you have just a 5-digit budget or have millions being played.

Relax, read up, choose your watchlist, bet based on how solid you think the company is. This foreign selling will stop in short term, time to hunt for bargains now.

Re-group!

Taper news hit us again.

The discipline to keep a substantial cash position served us well, but don't buy yet at this time. We dont know how deep will the slump be. We might see us again at 5900.

And monitor a few fundamentally-good stocks only. They might be bargains at this time. Many are even severely oversold without any reason other than foreign funds wanting to exit the PSE. We should buy the fundamentally-sound and currently-cheap MEG, MBT, et al, after they've done their unloading

Good luck.

Re-group?

Either Haiyan is still wreaking fresh havoc (this time in our stock market) or this is a temporary sell-down. If we slump back to sub-6000, this will be the first time in recent memory local equities will not have that Christmas increase, and 2013 will turn out of the worse years of the stock market.

One consolation from yesterday's big loss is that the volume is small. This important fact urged me to add to MEG, reenter AGI and GTCAP, and deplete some more cash position.The overall downtrend also should change our watchlist and short-term strategy.

I suggest we go back to short-term trading on some stocks. RLC is known to bounce strong from 20 - 21.5 range, PGOLD, Im waiting to touch below 40.

BUT, again, already already have pets for longer term (say until March).  Look for 15+% earnings growth and/or dividend-paying first liners. MEG, AGI, TEL, etc.

What hurt me most is TA, which was a pick of the week, but was debilitated by negative news. This is a puzzle--I might need to average down more and then sell some on rallies to go back to a decent cash position %. 

Pick of the Week for Wk 47: MEG and choose one among the Top 3 banks.

If you've unloaded MEG two weeks ago the moment you saw that it is having a hard time push itself to 3.9, or you noticed that a strong force is preventing it to blow past 4 PhP again, you are lucky! Now is the time to buy again. The company just reported a solid 15% net income increase and its landbank remains very competitive vs SMPH and ALI. And its P/E remains at a very undervalued 11 vs. the two peers. MEG should attempt to go past 3.9 again in 4 weeks and should breach 4 within the year.

My own unloading two weeks ago was prompted by it oversold status at RSI. Observing the chart the past 12 months, it dips every time it goes to oversold status. Also, a factor that added in favor of unloading is that the overall market is still shaky. Even attempted uptrend during the day cant seem to go full blown. There are parties (local and foreign) probably eager to exit specific stocks the moment they see the chance.

I believe it's also time to buy banks that tumbled down a bit last week. Read up and choose between BPI, BDO, and MBT. At worse, you might be forced to hold until March if it does not increase before year end.

Paksyet Wow!

Whattasurprise, Seahawks! Iwinawagayway ang bandila na parang may giyera!

Giyera na! Giyerahin na ang bagyo! Giyerahin na ang mga ungas sa munisipyo!

Thank you, Seahawks! Im now a fan! On to the Superbowl, Seahawks!

Ano ba'ng stocks ang relevant sa Seattle Seahawaks at matayaan bukas! Ibon! Phoenix! PNX! PNX!

Howza!

Hulaan na lang nang tatayaan!

Berde tayo ngayon, mga katoto

Wala nang ma kaklaro pa sa sinabi dito ni Kumareng Yellen.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-13/yellen-says-economy-performing-far-short-of-potential.html

Babalik na tayo sa 6500.

Im betting my pwet on dat.

Bili-bili na nang mga konglomereyt na binitawan kamakailan. Ako, FDC ang binenta ko. Baka bumili ngayon ng AC, AGI, o GTCAP.

***

Nakikiramay nga pala kami sa mga kapatid sa Samar, Leyte, Busuanga, Cebu. Magdoneyt tayo nang konti mula sa sweldo natin. Padayon!

Anderson Cooper, the Alaska Boy, report ka naman dyan ng mga gudtym gud things. Napansin mo na ba ang masayahin naming disposisyon? Ang aming mga welcoming na ngiti maski naghihirap na?

No pick of the week for Week 46

All stocks will be hit. We also have to bear the temporary setback.

I will also mostly stay put with what portfolio I have right now, if not sell to increase cash position. Other than that, I'll mostly ignore whatever happens to PSE this week.

Donate some of your gains for the year. Choose an organization with track record of integrity to donate to. And it's always better to donate anonymously.

We still have roofs over our head. Many of our countrymen lost theirs last Friday.

Our hearts go out to Tacloban and everyone hit by Haiyan.

I'm already seeing cynical comments about how it's becoming inane and tiring to repeat over and over again how people failed preparing for disaster, while there was advanced warning of catastrophe from left and right, from local and foreign media, from everywhere. These cynics are stupid. We all make decisions based on the stresses we're under. That's the only home they know, the properties they have, and the family had to be together.

If the local leadership was not forceful enough or did not educate enough or did not know by themselves the meaning of category 5 , then they shouldnt deserve to be in their positions. But these shouldn't be in our minds now. What we need to do now is  to send our sympathy and, more importantly,  we have to help. These are our countrymen.

We must also not forget the still insular nature of our links with the provinces. Initial reports only declare, somewhat 'proudly' only 3 persons dead, but now we're looking at 12000. We need leadership to get us linked from north to south. We have to this now.

Hire someone from Corporate to do this, Pnoy and Mar. Look for those with the sense of ownership and urgency. Those still with integrity and drive. Hire those young senior managers or directors. There are many who are willing to take a break for a year two from our salaries and for-profit work to contribute to the country.

Friends from Tacloban, please do not lose your integrity. There are ways to survive without stealing.

Do you want to be aligned with fuckers like this? 

Just stop whatever bad you know youve started. Help is coming. 

Stay together. This too will pass. We will recover.

Opportunity to revise portfolio (for that hoped for upsurge)

I think we are being given a chance this week to revise and prepare our portfolio before the upsurge of Dec - Mar. We are being given the chance to reenter MEG, MBT, and go back to our previously substantial position.

We're also watching out for GTCAP, SCC, BEL et al to go down our desired levels. BPI and AC, which are perennial foreign-fund favorites, these two are among the first to increase in a market upturn, are also becoming attractive.

TA though, which is one permanent stock in my port was hit by negative news. I now have paper loss in this stock equivalent to all that Ive earned from it in the past. I intend to average down after Wealth has finished unloading what it wants to unload. 

Or is this downturn portending the hurtful tapering of QE? I think I have to get in a bit. Just need to maintain at least 20% cash. 

Random Notes

I was not able to follow the plan to enter CPG at opening (nor at my previously set 1.87 last evening), because of an early meeting at work. When I was able to peek in Firstmetrosec, the price is already hovering near 2. That's not attractive any more considering that the 10% projected short-term gain (including the upside that already happened last Thursday) was already hit.

When I opened again an online broker around lunch time, i was surprised to see my GTM buy at 25.9 in AGI was hit. I set a day sell price at 26.95 arbitrarily by 130pm and was doubly surprised when it was hit at closing. AGI is among the last I expect to do a day trade with, but thanks to 1 K PhP+ nevertheless. I wonder what will happen to the stock tomorrow after the IPO day of RWM. Whatever happens, Ive set again a GTM buy at 26.

I did not submit a reservation form for RWM primarily because of its 27 P/E at IPO. I would have preferred Andrew Tan to have chosen a price below 20 P/E to compete with BEL's 20 - 25 P/E. Dr Tan and his advisors should have added as a consideration that BEL hasn't even opened Belle Grande yet (growth potential not yet fully unlocked for this competitor), while RWM has already been operating for some time (growth in even in terms of gaming table are already closely monitored by analysts).

However, BLOOM is trading at 35 P/E - 42 P/E at any given week, and RWM is still slated to expand in Pagcor City, so I might still participate at opening tomorrow. Guaranteed though that i wont hold RWM later than Friday closing.

I sold half of my RLC at near breakeven. About 80% of this position is from the remnant of its 25 PhP peak last June, which I averaged down in only lightly during the steep downturn. The fire at Galleria is not good for projected holiday revenue. In fact, I never thought this would go back to 23+, and thought I should take advantage already and unload some shares. Now the wishes are 1) to be able to buy back same position at 20 - 21.50 range before the year ends and 2) for Galleria to be open again before December, and 3) for the shops inside Galle to conduct a fantastic fire sale a la Shangri-La in 2010.

The 6800-in-2-weeks that I was projecting and pining for did not happen, probably because of the parsed statement in the FED minutes meeting about the powerful regulators hinting that QE tapering might start in December. Fund managers apparently have put more weight on that hint instead of holding on to the clear statement one month ago that the Fed wont start reducing bond buying if unemployment remains above 6.5%. I, for one, am constantly monitoring statistics a this site:
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

Pick of the week for Week 45 : TA TEL, and look out for buy-again points in GTCAP, SCC, MEG, AGI, JGS, and AEV

TA has good momentum currently and the sell volume is getting thinner and thinner since late last week after it surged up. Im heavy on TA; I was able to get back to my previous big position after I sold near half of holdings at its 2.8 peak months ago. Even though TA was not in my pick of the week list, I just bought tranches gradually when it was hovering at 2.1 - 2.2. This was done on faith given TA's growth potential, the management of the company, and its clear plans. Any one can read up on the plants and windmills under development, as well as Dean Viray's existing clout in the industry (including regulators). Lastly, Ive never lost yet a trade in TA and it gave me consistent hefty profits since to start of the year, so to support the stock's price at 2.1 can be sheer returning debt of gratitude (utang na loob) on my part :-) Further, Im still expecting gains on the property divs for Trans-asia Petroleum.

I was not expecting TEL to go back to below 2900, more so to go back insider its previous strong support at 2800-2830 range. This is always a safe stock to accumulate given its dividend yield. Furthermore, its current P/E is 15.8 while GLO is already at 21. I think the market is mis-pricing TEL and we should take advantage of the opportunity handed to us. Im ready to just add and add tranches even if TEL goes down to 2500. After adding earlier today, I now hold 5 tranches of TEL in my two ports (two brokers) combined.

Both TA and TEL I believe should gain +10% within this month, but I'll be starting to sell at +8% vs. their current price, considering that we are still not in a confirmed overall uptrend.

One should also keep an eye on stocks that may offer good reentry points within the week. MEG I think is a buy-again/add at 3.69, AGI at 25.30, JGS at 41.50, and AEV at 49. I have already set GTM buys myself at these levels. Part of the wishlist is also for solid favorites (but not holding currently) GTCAP to go back to 803 and SCC to 240ish before we enter 2014, but these could be far fetched.

And so it's CPG and Okada

I thought it's going to be ROCK or another relatively smaller player like ALPHA, BHI, ELI, but the Antonio's apparently entered the picture and closed with Okada. 

Congrats to all who tenaciously held on to CPG.

This will gap up tomorrow and increase in double figures, although you must impute in your expectations the fact that there were already people who received advanced word last Thursday (prompting CPG to increase 5%+). I will also look for a possible daytrade play. Why not long-term?  Well, we need to read-up more on construction timeline of the casino, the resort that will be attached, and their uniqueness compared to Belle/Dreams and Solaire. Does Okada, for example, have an existing junket system with a customer portfolio of rich mainland Chinese (similar to MCP and BEL's  advantage that they are bragging about)? Also, the Antonios will need to raise more cash. We need to know where and at what terms will they get fresh funds.

In any case, it was a nice play for Robbie da Pogi and his dad.

Be careful with gurus dispensing strong recos on bazurs.... they might just want to get out

We feel an affinity with a certain thinker because we agree with him; or because he shows us what we were already thinking; or because he shows us in a more articulate form what we were already thinking; or because he shows us what we were on the point of thinking; or what we would have thought much later if we hadn't read it now; or what we would have been likely to think but never would have thought if we hadn't read it now; or what we would have liked to think but never would have thought if we hadn't read it now. 

Affinity by Lydia Davis

Be careful. Im seeing so-called Gurus in forums again recommending strongly either bazurs or stocks (like the Lopez-owned, BHI, SMC, LC) that have underperformed others during the bull of Jan - June and tumbled down more than the PSEi average from Jul - September. Most of these issues went down for valid reasons (no growth in earnings, plant facilities combusting, too much debt, regulatory problems etc), the least that these gurus should be including in their recos are these negative things that are still hanging like a sword on the head of these companies. But they don't.

Why do these active forum users are all hyperbole on these stocks then? They probably have big positions bought near the top of these stocks, the classic ipit position, and are wanting to get out to have some cash to prepare for the almost-sure surge of Dec - Mar.

Beware of these people. They are expert re-shaper or omitter of facts to get your affinity.

Although small, I still have minus-15% ipits in stocks like ROCK, SGI, and GERI (because I elected not to cut loss and cut clean (100% of holdings) here when I had the chance). I have even averaged down on them recently, but Im not pushing these as pick of the weeks bluntly without warnings. Im ready to just dispose them in full during strong rallies, if I see that others like AGI deserve my cash more.

If you are attracted by strong cheering, the least that you can do is read up on fundamentals or back read on the forum thread of the particular stock and check for the reason why it fell down hard. At least you know the risks youre going in to.

There are even the worse guru who's dispensing advise left and right but have no skin (no money) on the line. They are like trolls pretending to be experts, being entertained by fools, or enjoying the fact that people follow their instructions to go into dangerous positions, but have no bet of their own.

Then there are also those devils that are on the sidelines watching for short-term gain, and will get out as quick as they get in. They will sell their, say, 500 K PhP out from BHI the moment that they see that their stupid no-sound-basis hyping gave them +1% already in one day. They are just out to get pizza or grocery money. Do not be their donor. 

Late Pick of the Week: Look for higher lows in JGS, MBT, MEG, but if you're eager to position now, choose TEL

I knew I have time to monitor the market this week; there is valuable time to spend to hunt for short terms gains, so I disposed some green in MBT, MEG, AGI, and AEV to raise cash. I expect that sentiments of some locals will be to dispose at our current 6600 levels. Some of our countrymen who were jittered before are probably exiting at near breakeven, so it's time to dispose some green and wait for them to dip again by at least 3%--better at minus 5%--to re-take similar position size.

For example, I disposed a huge chunk of MEG at 3.91, the moment that I saw that 1) the stock is already oversold, and 2) it's too weak to even break 3.95. And so, 3.91 less 5% is 3.71. Im waiting since then to enter some at 3.71, add another position at 3.70, and then a huge buy position at 3.68. I still haven't been blessed with shares at these levels, but am waiting. If MEG continued strongly at this very high RSI. I still have 20% of my original position. I just have to live with my bet that it's more probable for MEG to cool off a bit and be below oversold levels.  

Same applies with AEV, AGI, and MBT... I disposed all or huge chunks of these stocks, and now Im waiting for their higher lows to materialize before getting in again (first reentry at -3%, ideal at -5%).

But since I wanted to take some new positions and not be holding too much cash, I took positions in TEL and DMPL as well. I think TEL is undervalued at this time, and will perform some +5% in short term. Why? 

1) its forward P/E is 16, while its only competitor GLO is trading at 23 - 30 P/E. I know that the Ayala's enjoy some premium over competitors because of their perceived better managers, but that disprity is just too much. 

2) the BPO industry is experiencing tremendous growth and TEL should be one of the main beneficiaries  

3) PLDT's DSL is way faster than those stupid Tattoos and mobile broadband scams.
4) If youre caught ipit even at -10%, there's still some margin of safety. TEL always pay hefty divs to make up for it.

DMPL I placed a small position in because 1) its current price is below its current at SGX, 2) I feel that the market hasnt fully taken in the impact of the acquisition of the US Del Monte business. This makes for some good reading regarding DMPL:

http://research.maybank-ib.com/pdf/document/Del_Monte_141013c_5174.pdf

Besides that, Christmas is nearing. We're approaching that time for Buko and Fruit Salads. That would have some Del Monte Fruit Cocktails by default.

Again, these picks of the week have time frame of at least four weeks. It's time to revise your portfolios for intermediate and long term and prepare for the surge until March.

6800 in 2 weeks, choosing index stocks.

My bet is that we'll be at 6800 again 2 weeks. After reaching that level, some that has been caught holding the bag there last June-July will opt to exit. We also might be at overbought levels by that time, so it's more probable to have some correction by then.

This is +3% from where we are now and some index stocks will of course rise more than others. Which PSEi component to ride hoping it will be the leader?

FGEN is one of the most touted (strong buys) by local brokers, presumably because it is 50% away from its highs during June. I added minimum tranche last Friday on my small remaining position just to average down, but I dont have strong conviction that this is on the uptrend already. They must disclose clear plans with target completion dates on when two downed major revenue-producing plant sites will be up again. EDC is also always on the recommended-buy list with FGEN... same need for disclosure/news. These Lopez companies should choose the path of transparency.

SMC has gone up because of their property dividend, but I still down trust The Mechanic and most of the management of San Miguel, specially in terms of how they think about us small-time retail investors.

Favorites JGS, GTCAP, and SCC Ive divested wrongly since they went up strong since I sold them, but my unloading was a decision to have some protection in case the US indeed defaulted. That was the call. Im ready to go back to any three especially if one exhibited a cup with handle.

LTG has been going down. Might be good to buy at 15, but this is one index stock that is not for long term. I also dont trust Lucio's managers.

I still have AGI. I hope to sell all when it nears resistance again at 28.

Although Ive unloaded much already, I still have substantial positions in MEG and MBT. Will sell again once they reach oversold in RSI.

PX--Gold is still volatile. Out with Mining muna siguro.

BLOOM is not attractive to me at current levels. The disclosure on change-operators is also a bit problematic in terms of long-term investors that want stability.

I still don't understand why the Gokongweis were not obliged to disclose their buying price of MER. I wont get into MER again until there's clarity with that.

Still have substantial positions in AEV and AP and intending to hold until Q1 2014. Both are heavy-dividend paying stocks; these should be two that jump in price as we enter 2014.

ICT, GLO, and JFC I consider as missed boats already. Im not a fan of buying high and selling higher for these three, since they have very P/E's at this time. (But I have long-term shares in JFC in certificates).

PCOR I havent studied yet.

MPI--Im inquiring about time frame on the arbitration regarding the water rebasing issue, before getting in again.

MWC I still have an ipit position. Ive added one tranche last week to lower down average. It's too late for me to sell at -20%.

I profitably played (a number of small gains) with DMC during its up and down the past three months. I knew that the Consunjis defend this stock when it's going down to sub 45.  I have some small long-term position in green that will wait until their next dividend announcement next year.

I have no ALI and do not intend to go in at current price above 30.

I have some position in RLC that Im just leaving until March 2014.

Although I profited several times with URC during its ups and down July to September, this stock is still a puzzle. The main question to answer is if it can go back to a steady uptrend. I have no current position and I intend to study URC more.

I entered TEL last week. More on my presumed current state of TEL in another post.

I also entered SMPH with small-tranche last week. I think there's a good chance it can go up to 19.50 at least in the next four weeks. Will observe this closely together with SM (if it can go back to 900 levels before the year ends), but I dont like SM going back to above 26 P/E too fast.

AC is a known favorite by foreigners and always enjoy a higher premium P/E vs. its nearest competitor, which is SM. If I decide to go in, it will be small and something that I will sell fast at 660 or so.

I still hold some position BDO in green. I will sell if it reaches +10% gain.

I sold all my BPI at a small gain before the deadline and threat of default by the US. I wont probably go back at current level of BPI. Potential upside might be greater elsewhere (including non-index pets).

These are all superficial gloss-overs. Best to research way deeper on your own before going in. My only firm suggestion is to not skip the local non-favorites in your study. From participating in forums, I think GTCAP, JGS, SCC, AP, and RLC do not get much attention, and this is undeserved. They might not be apples of the eye and dont get mentions in forums, but they are all very attractive fundamentally, being traded at high volume by foreign and domestic funds, and are not yet expensive in their current valuations. Their recovery and increases at this point are in fact steadier and higher than other index components.

Friday moves

US Politicians eventually agreed to end the shutdown, we hope that focus will be now again on company earnings, growth, and macroeconomic merits. But another FED meeting is upcoming end of October. Will they choose to ease up on the bond buying?  Jobless claims though increased because of the shutdown. Will this be considered by Bernanke and group? Or the semi-experimental printing of money just had to be going on of too long and had to be lessened?

SMC announced property divs at a value seemingly at +10% yield against its current price . The stock increased just +5% though with foreigners exiting. I wont go back to SMC at this time; better to see robust earnings rather than this divs, which can just be an attempt to list-by-introduction Top Frontier Holdings and have a couple of major holders exit, more than any thing.

Gold increased substantially last night. Im adding LC at opening.

BEL and MCP might be going down. This and other stocks listed in the previous post are on my watchlist. Im getting in if they get to my desired prices.

Default and perish?

Yes. It's somewhat frustrating to realize that the performance of our market is not anchored on local company's earnings, our own domestic news, or our stellar GDP growth. Instead, we're all anticipating how a group of grownups, several thousand miles away from us, will eventually get their act together.

Anyway the news now is that the Republican leadership is trying to leash-in its hard-core conservative tea party hardliners. It appears that these congressmen are bent on creating chaos from the very start, and Boehner has to get them in order.

Well, we small players have no choice but to ready some defense. Today was a good day essentially. I sold all of my BPI, some MBT, some MEG, all of GTCAP at gains, however small. Was able to raise cash to 40% in my BPI port and 20% in my FMS port. Either the foreigners who bought up today's market allowed us some elbow-room budget for averaging down, or some fund managers are confident themselves that a deal will be closed in the next 48 hours.

The answer may not be available until Friday morning, but we should be ready even at opening tomorrow. Make sure to open your favorite news site before PSE opens.

Pick of the week: none. Wait out until Oct 17.

It's too risky to buy today. Keep cash handy, instead. The Republicans may really try to test and rough it out on to a credit default, regardless of the multitude of financial experts who are warning about the catastrophe that will result from it.

My minimum cash position in uncertain times like now, as mentioned many times before, is 30% of total current balance (capital + all gains).

Ive sold remaining shares (a significant chunk) of JGS (in green) to raise money in my FMS port; while cash remains at 30-40% in my BPI port.

Ive added one tranch of TA though (banking on the good news and additional revenue that the activation of Maibara power plant brings), and placed buy points in TEL beginning at 2830.

Ive also played with DMPL earlier--bought and sold within two hours, for a small 700 PhP gain. I think the buying of Del Monte Foods US is a big deal that market hasn't gauged positively enough (yet), also because of the possible impending default.

Other than small plays like these, I'll just be on watch mode for the next 3 days.

Another Storm Looming?

As Im writing this, the headlines are not good:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-13/effort-shifts-to-senate-leaders-to-resolve-fiscal-impasse.html

Have sufficient cash as always.

Contemplating for the next 4 weeks

After two weeks, got to assess positions only now.

The last two weeks have been good. Might have sold too early some partial tranches in JGS and MEG, but I still have substantial position in both in my other port. Only the cut loss of MER seem as the one mistake. Cash position increased to 45% when my sell points in ANS was hit. I averaged up in MBT and added some in FDC and AEV last Friday to return to 30-35% range.

Also in my other port, a minor blunder was in playing, although small, with LC, but Im still holding that. 0.4 seems to be a very strong support for this once-index component.

Im now looking at the following:

• BEL and MCP seem to be amping up in the press its strength with having the Hos as operators, and their existing junket system with high rollers, as predicted. I sold all my BEL with a small gain at 5.1 two weeks ago. If this breaks 5.4, Im getting in again.

• TA seems ready to go up again to 5.4 (minimum), but I have already a substantial existing position. wont be adding more.
• DNL seems eager to return as well to 7+, but I hope to see more volume.
• Im looking for some possible cup and handle formation (I believe in this Technical Analysis pattern, if only because it seems to be based on probable human psychology especially apt for after a downturn. If you dont know the pattern yet, best to google about it and read).

• The main Sy stocks--SM and SMPH--might fit this pattern before going back to their high June prices. 
• JGS might also exhibit cup-and-handle before going back to 45+. The IPO of Robinson's retail might also bring some influence to prod it to breach 50+, but I'll be contented to start selling at 45 - 48. 

• TEL appears wanting to go down next week. I'll be buying starting at 2830 again if it reaches that level.  
• Properties appear ready to go up in unison. Have to have in watchlist VLL, ELI, GERI, ROCK, and CPG. These companies have good income growth this year, and they are far away from their 52-week high. I'll probably buy into the one that show good strength on Monday, but among them VLL might only be the one for long term.  

Will make my pick of the week on Monday among these mentioned stocks. And that pick's hold time frame will be for minimum within four weeks. 

Mamingwit sa ilalim vs. maghintay ng breakout

Totoo namang mas delikado mamingwit at manghula na pinakailalim na ang mapupulutan mo, kaysa maghintay na lamang ng breakout tsaka makisakay. Sa pangalawang istayl ng trading, mas may istruktura ang mga gabay. Meron kasing mas mahigpit na paalala na kitilin ang pagkatalo kapag hindi nagtuluy-tuloy ang breakout tulad nang inaasahan. Sa halimbawa ng PGOLD (na isa kong perinyal na paborito pero di na nasubaybayan)--

Bagamat hindi mataas ang bolyum kumpara sa gusto ng mga tagahanap ng lehitimong breakout, nilampasan ni PGOLD ang 42 na ilambeses nyang sinubukang basagin bago pumailanlang na ngayon. Kung bumili ka sa 42.1 noong 10/02, mayroon ka na ngayong mga 8%. Kung kasama naman sa mga natakot noong Miyerkules at nagbenta sa 45, oks na rin ang +7%.

Paalala ng mga tagasunod ng sistema na ito na magkitil ng talo sa pinakamalapit na support kung peke pala ang breakout. Sa kaso ng PGOLD, sa 40 o 38 mag-cutloss.

'Malinis' ang istayl na ito, subalit mas eksayting ika nga ang sumubok mamingwit sa ilalim. Tulad ng totoong isport sa fishing, napakasaya (tingin mo'y napakagaling mo) kapag tama ang hula na ilalim na talaga ang napagbingwitan.

Ang karaniwang guide ng mga mangingisda sa ganitong istayl ay ang RSI. Kapag sumasadsad sa 30 ang RSI, pero solido naman ang kita at kinabukasan ng kumpanya, dapat daw mamingwit na. Sa kaso ng SECB na dinispatsa ng mga pondo dahil sa mababang ulat ng kita noong nakaraang quarter--

--kung bumili ka sa dulong 105, meron ka nang 30%+ ngayon. O kung sa saktong 30 RSI bumili  (mga 118 ang presyo dito), 16% pa rin ang kita. Mas mataba nga ang ganansya at para kang henyo o pinagpala ng maykapal kapag bumili sa isang mababang presyo at biglang tumaas agad mula doon.
Subalit napakahirap nga namang alamin kung talagang dulong ibaba na ang mabibingwitan. Pano kung sumadsad pa sa nuwebe halimbawa ang RSI?

Ang sagot siguro ay, kahit anong sistema man yan, kailangang ang fundamentals pa rin ng kumpanya ang saligan. Tuluy-tuloy pa rin naman ang kita ng SECB at makikita naman sa paligid ang patuloy na pagsulpot ng mga branches ng bangkong ito (nag-eexpand ang negosyo), kaya siguro marami ring pumasok at sumuporta sa bandang 105-110.

Ganon din sa mga sumabak sa GTCAP. Di na kailangang hintayin pa na umabot sa 30 ang RSI sa kumpanyang ito ng mga Ty, solido naman kasi ang Toyota, Metrobank, at Insurance na pag-mamay-ari nito, at pag tinignan ang graph, parang malaki na ang probabilidad na tumalbog sa 750 ang presyo dahil ilambeses nya na ginawa ito noon.

Ang problema nga lamang kapag may matinding bad news sa bansa o sa merkado (tulad ng QE easing), maaaring lumagpak pa sya ng husto. Sa kaso ng GTCAP, umabot pa sa 700 ang lagpak (maiging dagdag na lang siguro pag abot doon).

Alin sa dalawa ngayon ang mas mabisa? Walang aksyon masyado pag hintay lang nang hintay ng breakout. Madalas lang ang kasong ito kapag 'overall uptrend' ang merkado. Kapag ganoon, hindi na nga kailangan maghintay ng breakout, dahil lahat halos (lalo ang mga magagaganda ang paglago ng kita) ay tataas. Kung aksyon ang gusto, ang mamingwit sa inaakalang dulong-ilalim ang magagamit. Ganoon din kapag di kalakihan ang itataya.

Kabaligtaran naman ang sa mamingwit sa ilalim. Bihira naman ito kapag tumataas ang merkado sa pangkalahatan. Madalas, ang mga bumabagsak ay ang biglaang bad news sa pang-araw-araw (halimbawa, ang biglaang paghahabla ng smuggling ka PNX).

Pero pwede namang gamitin pareho. Tandaan lamang marahil na ang fundamentals pa rin ng kumpanya ang dapat saligan. Ang PGOLD ay patuloy naman ang paglaki. Dito rin kami nag-go-groceries ng pamilya. At dapat walang malaking bad news ang kumpanya. Halimbawa ang MPI at MWC sa ngayon--dahil sa order ng MWSS na magbaba ng singil, di pa solido ang sitwasyon nila para hulaang mamingwit sa ilalim. Kasama na ang mga minahan na napakalikot ng presyo at wala pang liwanag ang kinabukasan hanggang di naaayos ang batas sa pagmimina sa Pilipinas.

Alin ang magandang abangan ang breakout sa ngayon? GLO siguro, subalit di ganon kalakas ang paglago ng negosyong ito kumpara sa PGOLD. Pwede rin ang ICT? JFC? DMPL?

Alin naman ang magandang abangan sa baba? VLL sa 5-5.05, AP sa 30 - 31, AEV sa ... magbasa ng forum tulad ng SMP para makasamang mamingwit. Madalas may isang pondo lang na piniling idispatsa ang stock, kaya nagiging parang bargain ito panandalian. Ang sarap talaga kapag nakatyempo ng ganire.

Thank you, MEG and JGS!

Writing a short post just to gloat about these two picks that were on point and jumped within the 30-day period that Ive set.

Ive sold some MEG at 3.65 as previously decided, and some JGS at 42. Im still holding a substantial half of each though, given that they are still showing strength. Ive set next sell points for MEG at 3.79 and 3.89; while none yet for the remaining JGS, since this conglomerate is releasing good news left and right and peso appears strengthening (they will declare forex gains if peso comes back to 40 PhP).

There was also some hefty gain from ANS, which I sold at 6.89, 6.99 and 7.1. I wish I could have added more when it was hovering at 6.5, and many of us in SMP was almost 100% sure that it is going to announce a hefty devs, but it was the low volume trading that held me off. In any case, it was a good ~ 8% average gain.  Thank you, too, Andres. (Lorna Kapunan, abandon Napoles please).

Only FDC and LC appear to be failed (minor and speculative) picks. Im still holding two tranches of LC at -6% loss (Im ready to cut loss here at -15%, but it never reached that yet). I added one tranche of FDC at 4 (buy was set last night). I believe it should go up given that subsidiary FLI is going up.

Week 41 was a good week, while Im mostly out and cant follow the action.

Still have no time to research for a good pick. Will do that again on Sunday.

O-ha, Meg!

Tamang-tama ang pasok ko sa 3.33 at otomatik benta (iniwan lang ang gustong presyo) kanina sa 3.56.

Ayos na sa akin ang 7.5% na ganansya.

FDC na ngayon ang aking susubaybayan. Bili na ko konti sa kwatro. Naalala ko rin kasi ang kwatro o kwarto na tsismis noon sa unibersidad.

Heniwey, ambaba pa rin ng bolyum dahil nag-uumpugan pa rin ng bayag si Boehner at Obama. Wag kang magbibigay ng bayag, Obama. Oks lang na malugi kami konti o maghintay konti. Ipaglaban mo ang Obamacare. Pag bumigay ka sa mga kongresistang iyan ngayon, kakayan-kayanin ka na nyang mga yan hanggang sa magtapos ang termino mo. Baka di pa manalo si Hillary nyaan kapag di nangmatigas kayong mga Democrat.

Kami rito'y titingin-tingin muna ng bargain. Biruin mong 8 na lang pala ang P/E nga ng FDC, e dividend paying naman yaan.

Pinoystockpicker Turmukesh is on days of teambuilding, then vacation, then planning session

I get to squeeze in time for the PSE at night only.

Will be back on Sunday, October 13.

Walang gano inimpak si Moody's?

Huminto na si pag-iinarte si Moody's. 

Pero walang hiya talaga itong si Boehner at ang gang nya. Porket ayaw nila ng batas na pumasa na, bubulabugin ang buong mundo. Hindi rumerespeto sa consensus ang mga ito. Napakalakas sana ng pagtaas ng stocks natin dahil kay Moody's, pero kakarampot lang ang nangyari dahils sa tirada nia Boehner. Mukhang sugal pa rin ngayon tuloy ang mangyayari.

Subalit mukhang mas pabor na tumaya kaysa manood lang. Pumili na lamang ng solidong kumpaya na pwedeng pagkaipitan kung aabot doon. Wala na munang BHI at LC.

Papasok ako sa MEG sa 3.33 at BDO sa 86. Yan lang, dahil hindi pa rin sigurado ang kalalagyan ng ating merkado.

Late Pick of the Week for Week 40: still MEG and watch the banks, especially MBT and BDO

Was out on several days for a teambuilding, was not able to actively participate in the market, was not able to make a pick of the week. And I became aware just now that finally the long-awaited Moody's upgrade was announced! But was also surprised that the increase after the lunchtime press release is just a measly +0.4%, and that the foreigners are still net sellers at this time. These facts, in combo, are surprising indeed.

It seems that the standoff between the Lower House and White House in the US bears more impact to us more than any good news. And October 17 seems to be the critical date to watch. This is the day when the US begins to default on some payables, if they dont get their act together. Imagine the gravity of this 'milestone' if ever it happens.

Since I will also be out tomorrow afternoon until Thursday (I dont know if James can post), and the only solution in my case is to be cautious. I'll still maintain my cash position, probably at minimum 25%, and will only place bets on MEG (which appears to be on the path of improvement again). I will also add a bit to existing green position MBT, which went down from 91 to 84, despite Moody's and other analysts singling out the strength of the bank and its current cheap valuation. BDO closed at a thick bid volume, this is almost guaranteed to be green tomorrow.

Others are recommending releasing all cash--If you do this, it will be a bet on the one good news. It's sound to do if you have time to follow price movement, so you will get have a better chance to make the right decision--whether it's time to cut loss or take profit. It's in knowing when either decision is needed.

***

I dont have time to fully research VLL, JGS, GTCAP, AGI, and other 'solid' non-bazur favorites of recent weeks. But if the Moody's upgrade 'overpowers' negative sentiment, they should be among the stocks that join the upward trend.

Include AC in this fray. It is almost assured to go back to 650 level if market really begins to go upward because of Moody's.

Good luck!

Recounting Week 39

If I was asked to place a bet last Sunday on whether the market will go up or down throughout last week, I would have bet that the market will go up even by 1%. What happened instead was we went back to a low 4-6 B PhP trading per day, and locals took profit. We're down 2% as a result.

There were also some negative rumours about AGI that made locals sell. That news about its shortchanging of upcoming backdoors and IPO's could be true, but Im ready to average down even if it goes down to 19.

The news about SMC, JGS, and MER also made impact. I made a separate post on this topic.

The main news that brought down equities seems to be the stand-off between US Congress and Obama on budget. Obama should show the lower house that he has some balls to shut down the government if needed. I think Speaker Boehner and his cohorts have smaller balls, and will give in the next two weeks, prompting a rally just before FED tapering news permeates again by end-October.

I profited +3% twice on JGS in the week, and sold half of green MEG just to hedge. I will add in MEG though if it goes down to 3.34 again. Im sticking to MEG as a good pick, with a time frame of two weeks. Im also still holding a significant MBT at 6+% gain
Im retaining cash position at 30%

I also made one tranche entry in SECB, which immediately turned green on the same day. I think its preferred shared rights is good for the stock price in the end. And SECB also tumbled dwon so low from its June high, it has so much room for an intermediate uptrend.

I was also watching VLL, because of its low P/E (good for value investors), new vigorous involvement of basura swimmer (good for 'N' in CANSLIM as explained by James), and solid sales growth. But it seem unable to get past the 5.5 hurdle. And more importantly the sell-side volume is always higher than ask. Im eager to get back to this issue at 5.05, but will probably start with one tranche on 5.15.

And then I also caught up on the last two episodes of Breaking Bad. Ive been a heavy user of IMDB since college (more than a decade ago), and this is the first time ever I've seen a 10/10 score in any film or tv episode. And it's fully deserving this perfect-ness. I cant help but blurt out an audible "wow" after I finished watching it myself, alone, in front of a desktop computer.

Others who are not following Breaking Bad might not be able to relate and be "hit" with the fullest impact of the episode. If you are not yet a Heisenberg follower, start now, even with just the 4th season. It's good to invest time in probably the best series ever in TV history (beating even Sopranos and The Wire).

JGS, SMC, and MER

Whichever way you look at it, this news does not bode well on the short-term price of MER

I would say that MER will be saddled inside 250 - 260 range in short-term. Why?

• Gokongwei will not buy at current market price without any discount. 10% off is a reasonable expectation for JGS or the deal is off. Now, who's more desperate, the buyer or the seller? 
• RSA seems desperate to divest, so SMC will have some money to pay off short-term debts. (Important to read this). I can picture SMC's Finance trying to find ways to make a better picture off its current balance sheet. 
• JGS's own interest probably lies only with Gokongwei's current thrust to keep holdings that pay-off consistent dividends. He will not hope to get control of MER today or on long-term. MVP's hold in Meralco is cemented at this point.He wont hope to get immediate synergy from adding MER inside JGS. 
• So, it's SMC who's more interested to sell at this point. 

I unloaded all my MER shares at an average 8% loss.

Unless a player will jack-up the price of MER back to 300 PhP level before applying say a 10% discount to JGS's buying, this whole deal is not good for MER. But who has the incentive to do jack-up price? 

In any case, any MER price down will only be temporary. The merits of MER as a company--which has solid revenue growth and even planning to establish power plants of its own--will prevail in the long run. 

CANSLIM Book ni Galgani, Kabanata 2

Sa kabanata 2 ng libro ni Galgani, ipinrisinta n'ya na agad ang buong konsepto ng CANSLIM. 

Mahusay na ang pagsusumang ito ng CANSLIM sa Investopedia.

Pero para maiba naman, lalo pang nagbigay ng mas kinapsulang pagsusuma ang libro. Mas pinaikli pa lalo ng awtor ang ideya ng CANSLIM tungo sa tatlong 'big rocks.' Naaalala kong ginagamit ang big rocks bilang idyoma ng isyu, matitinding suliranin, o malalaking kailangang gawin, na dapat gawing prayoriti. Sa parehong intensyon, ginamit ni Galgani ang termino parang bigyang diin--bago ang maliliit na pebbles, o kung anu mang taktika at stratehiya, kailangang unahing tirahin, kailangang nasa kukote parati, ang mga big rocks na ito:

#1 Bumili lamang ng stock kapag may confirmed uptrend na. Dumepensa kapag bumabagsak ang merkado. (ibig sabihin--lumabas at pumunta sa cash)

#2 Tutukan ang mga kumpanyang may malaking paglago ng kita at may bagong innovative na produkto or serbisyo.

#3 Bilhin ang mga stocks na binibili ng mga malalaking pondo (institutional investors). Iwasan ang mga binebenta nila nang malakihan.

At ang CANSLIM ay ginawa lang base sa dalawang ideya:

• Hanapin ang mga papatok o mga malapit ng pabulusok paakyat, sa pamamagitan ng paghahanap ng mga stocks na may mga katangiang katulad ng mga pumatok noon, eksakto bago sumipa ang presyo nila. 
• Ang malaman kung kailan na dapat magbenta. O maging mulat sa mga parehong senyales ng mga dating pumatok--noong naabot na nila ang tuktok at nagsimulang bumaba na. 

(si G. O'Neill) 

Sa mga sumusunod na pahina, pinakilala ni Galgani ang kanyang mentor na si O'Neill. Si O'Neill daw ay nasumpungang pag-aralan ang mga katangian ng patok na stocks, bago sila pumatok nang husto. Ang kanyang nadiskubre: ang pinakamagagaling na stocks ay mayroong pitong katangian bago siya sumipa nang matindi pataas. Ito na nga ang mas detalyeng CANSLIM:

C - para sa Current Earnings. Kailangang ang kita at sumisipa at tumutulin ang pagtaas sa mga katatapos na quarters (tigtatatlong buwan.

A - Annual Earnings. Para masiguradong hindi tsamba ang paglago ng kita sa nakaraang quarter, kailangan ding tignan ang kita sa pangbuong taon. Kailangang malakas ang pag-akyat ng kita nang nakaraang tatlong taon.

N - New company, product/service, industry trend, or management. Kailangang may bago sa kumpanya. Maigi kung bagong produkto mula sa inobasyon na magpapalaki ng benta. Pwede rin bagong management o kaya bagong kalakaran sa industriya na game-changer (bagong batas o kung anu man).

S - Supply and Demand. Ang magagandang stocks daw at magkakaroon ng above-average na pagtaas ng volume na ti-ne-trade, Ipinapakita nito ang interes ng mga propesyunal na investors o manedyer ng mga malalaking pondo

L - Leader or Laggard - Dapat lider ang kumpanya sa grupo nya. Kapag klarong nanguguna sya sa kumpetisyon, ang mga pondo ay pipila papunta sa stock na iyon.

I - Institutional sponsorship - ang mga institusyon at mga pondo ay dapat tinatangkilik ang stocks. Kailangan makita na dumadami ang bilang ng mga nag-mamay-aring pondo sa stock. Kumpirmasyon ito na susuportahan nila ang stock na pinpuntirya mo.

M - Market Direction - Sa kasaysayan daw 3 sa bawat 4 na stocks ay susunod sa direksyon ng kabuuan ng market, pababa man o pataas. Kaya't kailangang matutunong sumunod, hindi labanan, ang kasulukuyang daloy.

Ang C, A, at N ay ipinaloob ni Galgani sa ganyang malaking batong #2.

Ang S, L, I naman ay nasa malaking batong #3.

At ang M, na binibigyang diin parati, at nasa batong #1

Sa pagpraktis ng stratehiya ng CANSLIM, +24.7% bawat taon daw ang sipa ng portfolio noong 1998 - 2013, kumpara sa +2.6% lamang ng S&P (indeks ng Amerika).

Sinusugan ng iba pang suporta ni Galgani ang ilang aspeto ng CANSLIM. Halimbawa, kailangang tangkilikin ang pinagbibibili ng mga mutual funds, at iwasan ang dinidispatsa nila nang pangmalakihang bolyum. Masasaktan ka lang kapag nilabanan mo sila.

Sinundan ng libro ng halimbawang Apple vs. Dell ang ilustrasyon kung paano kabisa ang CANSLIM. Anya noong pagkapasok ng 21st century, ang Apple ay sumisipa ang kita, may bagong magagaling na mga manedyer. may bagong produktong iPhone at iPad, samantalang ang Dell ay palugmok sa lumang PC, pisat or istedi lang na kita, atbp. Pinakita ang graph ng galaw ng presyo ng Apple at Dell. Bumulusok ang Apple pataas, dumausdos pababa ang Dell.

Ang isa sa mga litaw na naiiba sa CANSLIM ay ang pag-waksi sa mababang P/E ratio bilang atraksyon ngpagbili. Anya ng mga CANSLIM practitioners, ang mababang P/E ay pupwedeng senyales ng kahinaan, hindi ng pagkapatok ng stocks. Ang pinakamalalakas na stocks ay malamang may mataas na P/E, dahil mataas ang demand sa kanila. Ang mga pobre naman at ibinebenta pababa, kaya bababa ang P/E nito

Taliwas ito sa opinyon ng mga value investors.

Ang aking hinuha naman tungkol sa CANSLIM ay sa mga susunod na kabanata na lang. Pansamantala, sisikapin kong tapusin ang pagsusuma ng ikatlong kabanata ngayong linggo.

Gudlak sa mga trade ninyo!

Pick of the week for Week 39: MEG

Im banking on the sufficient probability that we are on an uptrend however small (could be just +5% of current PSEi level today or 6800) and however short (could be just until last part of October when anxiety of tapering will prop up its ugly head again).

If we are on an uptrend MEG must catch-up with ALI and other properties that are currently showing strength. Indeed, MEG has already jumped 18% from its 2.9ish low last August, but it's current P/E is just 11--still very cheap compared to its peers SMPH and ALI. MEG should have more juice left--Im projecting 3.75ish in the next 2 weeks, but I'll be selling starting at 3.65. 

Im also watching JGS, which was also a previous stalwart, but was clobbered by Forex losses in a recent earnings report. Now that PhP is gaining against the greenback (or greenback is weakening against all currencies in general), the real performance of JGS should come to the fore. 

It is also reasonable to expect JGS returning to at least 42 PhP, which is its level when our index was 6800. Today's price to 42 is 10%+ difference, so this issue might be good for a 'short term,' high single-digit percentage profit. But still, dont go all in, invest in tranches and average down even up to 45 if it goes down that low.

There are also "Dark Horse" picks like

ANS--should be announcing hefty dividends in the the next 4 weeks.
FDC--hasnt recovered yet, but its subsidiaries are already gaining ground.
LC--for its short-term behavior, a bet in LC is a bet in Gold increasing.
Gold, as most other highly-traded commodities, is expected to increase given the interim "taper-off"(taper removal). LC almost always follow the trend of gold, at times as immediate as the following day. If Gold jumps 3 consecutive days, for instance, LC must jump accordingly.

But FDC and ANS are illiquid. And LC is notorious for its volatility and general 'danger' (this company is almost direction-less until the future of mining in the Philippines is straightened out). Bet on any of these three if only you are that kind of person that loves 'playing,' and you would have time to monitor the price movement daily and closely. Do not hold, especially LC, for too long. 

Nakakagumilihanan na Biyernes

Nakakagulumihanan ang ginawa ng mga banyagang biglaang pagbebenta sa pagsasara noong Biyernes. Mula sa matatag na positibo, biglang naging -1.3%. Nakakawindang din ang 28.8 B volume. May malaking cross sa TSI na nakaontribyut ng malaki dito, pero malaki na rin ang 12 B ang total na bolyum kung wala ang cross.

Ano kaya ang mangyayari ngayon? Di ko alam. Ang taya ko positive. At may taya pa rin akong nakaiwan sa MEG, MBT, AEV, JGS.

Formulate your action plan for longer, say the next 4 weeks

My suggestion is to change trading time frame and go 4-6 weeks. Suspend for the mean time the day-trade or 3-day time period. Choose your favorite companies, perhaps those that steadily gave you profits last May-June. Remember, their earnings remained steady as they are--except the banks that lost big in trading (after foreign money pulled-out en masse) and the companies that borrowed heavily in dollars early this year.

There's a theory that the stocks that were not as affected and not too up-and-down shaky during the down turn will also become the first ones jumping in the upturn. PGOLD, JFC, AGI, are three of these stocks. I placed my bet on AGI. If you want to align with this theory, do a quick look at the graphs of all the PSEi stocks and some second liners. Find the one which did not dip too low and did not oscillate too wide.

MEG, although dumped by foreigners in July-August,was heavily bought up again yesterday. It can become the reliable stalwart again. In fact if this becomes a steady hand , the whole index would also be comfortably steady in its upturn. MEG is now moved on the first page of my watchlist, a candidate for adding-up.

AC and MER were also steadily-increasing index stocks before the QE tapering news. They also deserve some focus.

The banks are being bought up by foreign funds again. Search a bank of your own if you still have funds to allocate. Also dont forget dividend paying and those with low P/E, remember those metrics are also being looked at by fund managers.

Half of my holdings in MBT was hit at previously-set 88.5, all remaining GTCAP was also hit at 840 (previously set), as well as tranches in VLL, even before I got the chance to open FMS or BPITrade. Im suddenly 50% cash when I started checking the market. I bought one tranche in JGS and AEV to release some cash. Only AEV was the bad pick, but Im betting this will recover today.

By the way, thank you GTCAP for being a good pick of the week. Although youre not a favorite by locals, you gave me profit 3 times around.

I don't agree with the early profit taking done by our fellow locals late in the morning and late closing. (My own mistake was in not taking time opening PC at home to cancel all sell orders before the market opened). The FED tapering was the most important concern, since we were relieved by that then our market will probably be allowed its "natural" trend, which should be up given the rosy corporate earnings and braggable GDP growth. Im not privy though on the emotions of our fellow pinoys that sold big yesterday (see COL selling figures). They might be shell-shocked new investors  that want to just want exit out unscathed or recover some of the losses.

And yes, the "relief" is only good until November 1.The FOMC will meet again Oct 29-30. By the time we go back on trading again on November 4, there could be a firm announcement on the amount of tapering that will happen within the year.

But at least Ben Bernanke now  laid out more certainty. He said that tapering will not start if US unemployment wont go down below 6.5%. So that's also a number to watch out in the news for.

Now, how would we know when to sell?
1) check the trend. If still going up or above the SMA lines, let your profits run, and MACD histogram trending up or stable.
2) but i'll be comfortable selling at 12% gain. (My current MEG and MBT are already showing 8%)
3) sell when you see the  US unemployment improve to way below 6.5%
4) sell before All Saints day break.
(strong sell if there's combination of the 4 conditions)

And dont forget to read news daily. For instance, you would not know there's another bacman bad news in EDC if you dont read the news for a few minutes.  

Berdeng Biyernes na Naman

Surpresa talaga ang desisyon ni Mang Ben. Salamat, Mang Ben. Hayaan mo sanang bilhin na muna muli pataas ng mga naglalakihang pondo ang merkado namin, bago tirahin uli ang buong mundo ng QE taper. Palayain mo muna ang mga nakulong sa taas ng SM, SECB, at iba pa.

Mukhang berde ulit tayo ngayon, mga katoto, pero mag-ingat nang kaunti. Di pa rin unanimous, ika nga, ang pagbili ng mga banyaga. Nandyan pa rin si CLSA na matigas ang ulo sa pagbebenta at paninira ng sipa pataas. Bigla syang nagbubuhos pababa na lalong ikinakakaba ng na-shellshock na na locals (na sumusunod tuloy). Kaya't mag-ingat na lamang nang kaunti, pumili nang kaunti, at wag na ikalat ang pera.

Tandaan din na may miting ulit ang Fed sa susunod na buwan. Posibleng ilang linggo ng kasiguruhan lang ito. Isang magandang ideya rin ang pumili ng isang istak na oks lang na maipit ka kung umabot sa ganoon.

Nakabenta ako ng VLL at GTCAP, at bumalik sa Dos kahapon. Nakabili din ng MEG, sana makabenta sa 3.6 sa buwan ding ito.

Inoobserbahan ko rin ang mga bangko na mangggaling sa malalim--SECB, BDO--na mukhang pinapataas na muli. Baka bumili rin ng  BPI kapag kumbinsing na sumipa lampas ng 105. Dapat lang pataasin na ang mga ito, anlalaki ng kita ng mga yaan.

Thank You, Ben

We know that we're the least on your mind when you decided to continue untouched your QE innovation, but Thank you! nevertheless.

You seem so tired from all the stress, and ready to go back to the academe any time. Thank you for still staying on and doing what you believe is right, doing what you said was right decades ago, when all of them were just your papers and theories on Depression Economics. Just take a vacation for 3 months after leaving on January. Call us if you need recommendations on where to go in the Philippines. It's more fun here. Where can you see boat men, after touring visitors in our coasts during the day, participate in beauty pageants at night?

You the man, Ben!  Props for fooling Wall Street and 'revered' economists, who was wildly guessing 5 - 20 B (as high as 23%!) reduction in tapering that was supposed to start immediately (according to them). That taught them that the boss cannot be influenced by anticipatory news and press releases.

I wish you are my teacher/mentor.