Pick of the week is patience on your entries

Even if you think that the current price of your favorite stock is already very low, still err on the side of waiting for it to get lower before entering. You might be glad that you bought in what you thought is a good, low, 'discounted' (a la mall sale) price, but that entry point is probably not the bottom at this shaky market conditions. Our small PSE and your favorite company (however strong it is financially) will have no choice but to be influenced by the trend of the bigger stock markets outside.

You want clear guidance on when to enter? Wait until our index reaches 5700ish. This is still -10% below current index level. Reserve your cash for that level.

If you can't really help yourself, enter on high-dividend paying blue chips only--like TEL, GLO, DMC. Check also the Aboitizes's recent dividend yields.

Good luck!

ALERT: VLL on a 3-year low

Need to read up on why. Why o why, Mr Manny V?

I have one tranche bought at 5. Need to place buy points. Will this further tumble like CPG? It will be like saying that the Villars manage like the Antonio's. I dont think so.

10 notes and plans on a downtrend

It's time to really activate this blog again, if only to write down my trading diary.

1) Must remember that the Aboitizes are generous in paying out dividend. Have to read up on AP and AEV and put some premium that they will pay between 3 - 4% in divs, regardless of stock market conditions.
Personal disclosure: currently dont have both.

2) GLO at 1600 is a buy, again regardless of market conditions.Also dont have GLO (only GLOPP). Im looking at 1600 as an opportunity that must be grabbed.

3) AGI is failing me, probably because of its gambling arm, which is sour to all investors these days;

4) DMC and SCC are also good dividend payers. Have to read up and establish buy points on both also.

5) TEL's downtrend is not that high compared to other blue chips, probably because it has been hard hit ahead. It is an add somewhere between 1800-1900. I need to be familiar with its dividend rate change.

6) GMA7 has been one of my winners late last year. Rightly bought at around 6 - 6.3 and opportunely sold huge chunks between 7-2 - 7.4. Thank you, Aldub! Need to read up on news on profit projections this election year to know where to add, while it is affected by general market downtrend.

7) As we've written elsewhere, our market is susceptible to a 20-30%% drop in a few short weeks, given global factors that will pull it down. Back in 2013, it indeed tumbled around 23% from peak. If we apply same percentage, bloodbath should stop at 6300. If we suffer more, I would bet minus-30% is tops.

8) To bet money where my mouth is, I will buy FMETF (index-based) and BPI UITF (index based) at 5700, regardless of market conditions.

9) The result of the May elections will be the big, big shadow, demon, or angel that will lift or further bleed our market. It's harder to speculate on this area, but remember we will lose or win based on whoever wins the presidency. Digest this fact.

10) I maintained discipline and have kept my cash position to 50% the past few months. This is done as a risk management lever--a measure against the stubbornness of still being involved in a market threatened by bad global indicators (and obviously not in a clear uptrend). Now, it is time to post some buy points and release some of this cash.

The Franchise Awakens

PROS

1) Abrams brought back the "plane-ness" of the vista. Lucas knows that he was being illogical when he made the prequel more advanced ("hay-tek," ika nga nila) than the sequels. Too much eye candy in Revenge of the Sith, et al. Abrams straightened out this wrong.
2) The Star Wars that is not afraid to pull-in strong emotions is back.
3) The evil-ness of the villains was portrayed well. It was not too mild or too forced.
4) Harrison Ford is Han Solo. Bringing him, Leia, and Luke back is already a great achievement. Them delivering on their performance furthers the achievement.
5) I like the inter-racial angle brought up. This is one facet that upgrades the franchise (it's not pure homage, ladies and gentlemen). If a gay alien comes up, it would also be welcome.


CONS

1) I thought the the female and black leads were overacting in many scenes. I dont know if Abrams deliberately sought this to reflect the late-70's and early 80's level of acting, but still it disturbs me.
2) They should have given more time for Chewie after that cataclystic event. It was an emotional grenade for our favorite Wookie. It should have been shown on screen and let the audience cry more.

I was born after the first Star Wars, but I caught up with Betamax. Seeing this movie at the same texture and feel as the first three is refreshing. Thank you and congrats to Abrams, Kasdan, Arndt, Disney, and the whole cast. We clapped in the theaters.

Im sure Rian Johnson will further up the ante. He directed the best of the best Breaking Bad episode, after all.

The owners are buying, foreigners still selling

The foreigners are still selling (by the billions at that), but our market is demonstrating resiliency. Resiliency to the point that the bounce is high and seemingly persistent. Why is this?

It pays to read disclosures and you can see that the owners are buying. the Cos of PGOLD, the Laos of DNL, even the Concepcions are buying. This means that they think that their company was cheap after the steep sell-down, and that the their business is still growing.

I have PGOLD, MBT positive as a result. (MEG should have been in this list). Thinking of selling at +5% (going back to that strategy, yes), until the foreigners start at net buy, however small it is, just so long at it is consistent.

Notes on the bloodbath

WEALTH is still selling hard. Where will this fund put their money? Are they placing all their eggs on a FED rate increase this year? is this local fund using the money to bet against the PhP?

I should have added fast on MEG fast and sold at +5%, but I did not.

Added on TA at 1.7. Studying DNL.

Added on PGOLD at 30.

50% cash position now just 20ish %. Ready to add more cash in fund, if needed.

My bet is that our market will disentangle for China's. As long as the OFW's are still sending in money and there is no local bubble, I wont get out of equities. Remember: these are the same companies with the same markets as before the downtrend. (It's a different tune though if there's going to be another regional crisis);

Im back to zero year to date. But I won't forget that the big gains I harvested in 2014 was from when our index increased from 5800 to 7400 in just over 12 months. When stocks like TA rose from very deep at 1.4 to 2.4, SECB from 110 - 160, etc.

I'll be doing weekly picks again.

Doomsday!

I have to go back from my hiatus to write about what's happening in the 3-hour stretch in our stock market.

They have been feeling this in China months ago, it seems the funds are saying it's our turn.

BUT the funny thing is--the leading sellers that our bringing us down are LOCALS--Wealth and COL, ladies and gentlemen. We have to ruminate on this.

As readers of this blog knows, my trading is a series of placing good-to-cancel sell and buy points after or before office hours and only got to peek usually on lunch breaks. I have a hectic day job, incidentally, in one of the blue chips. Imagine my surprise when I saw today MEG being brought down in double figures!

In the mean time, my buy points in MBT, AGI, PGOLD, and TEL have been hit today. I still have plenty of cash position. Now, selectively choosing where to add.

My gains this year are all erased! But on one side, it's exciting to blog again!

Slowly reenter...

If Im not able to do weekly picks consistently, I should at least write my moves.

And so, Im slowly reducing cash position and reentering the market. I thought the foreigners are evidently buying the solid Big Caps again, and we should have been in NFB, if not for the strong exits of foreign funds in SCC and DMC (which is warranted because of another mining accident).

I added to existing small position in AGI. Again, this is one issue that has never failed me before.

I bought also in PSPC (speculative), betting the harping that the company is doing will bring the price close to 3 or at least back to 2.8. The news about its mother company in Korea getting out of potential bankruptcy could also shore this up. This is not a company for long-term though.

Looking closely at BEL, if I should add.

I also like the recent insider buying in TA (see disclosures). Even Dean Viray's wife is buying. I might add to my existing small position.

Im in agreement with those who are betting that the index will go back up again to 8000. But whether it will breach 8500 is another matter. Im leaning more towards what TA's call a double top.

Cash coming in handy

The past few months we've been advocating here healthy cash position. If you have stuck with 50% cash as we did, your portfolio shouldn't have been slaughtered, but instead the past few weeks should be bringing some excitement for us being given the opportunity again to re-enter the favorites at good prices.

So, when is the right time to enter again? If you want to be ultra-safe and if you have time, you have to monitor daily the foreign-selling. It must abet and turn into buying in majority of stocks, and not just select few. Do not be tricked into buying a particular stock being bought by one foreigner only (like JPMORGAN) and then being sold by two or more (like DEUTSCHE and MACQUAR). At least three must be buying again.

We are being told thogh that the sell-off today could be in preparation for the US Fed's upcoming rate increase. If this is the case, and again if your method is ultra-safe, you'll have a lot more waiting time to expend. Remember--the foreigners can bring down our market by -20% in a few short weeks.

But if you mix-in some value investing in your style, as I do, you should be placing one-tranche buy now on favorite stocks. MBT at 82, TEL at 2600, PGOLD at 35.5, FLI at 1.65, SECB at 140, are all one tranche buys. (Note to self: review old picks of the week). The old adage be greedy when others are fearful still applies. If you want for safety factor blended in, buy dividend paying only.

Remember the ones that paid your vacations last year. They are the same companies fundamentally that will jump back up first and deliver again another El Nido or Cebu trip and the tasty lechon to eat.

Waiting for 7400

(Found this in my draft--better to post anyway, even if late)


This is just me--

I've been sitting on a big cash position for weeks now, and Im waiting for the index to go back to 7400 before entering big again. Why 7400? That was a previous "double-top resistance" as TA believers would call it. That's also the point where we'll lose -10% from record high. A bounce is what I expect from there.

The thing that's worrying though is the consistent foreign-selling, which is happening for weeks now. Do not forget that the foreigners can bring down our market by -20% in a few short days. If that happens again, we'll see ourselves nearer to 6000 in no time. 

Yes, this big dip happened in 2013, because there was a major pronouncement from the Bernanke and the FED. When you think about it, there might be another announcement coming soon. Just keep in mind that the foreign funds will be ready to exit mercilessly any time they see "better" use for their money. 

Padayon, Manny. Laban!

We don't call you Pacman here. Just a man deserving to be idolized for his hardwork.

I did not buy PPV, because there seems to be bad luck every time I spend for it rather than join the masses in a movie theater or in regular tv. Anyway, I might try streaming.

The force be with you, man. Sugod! Depensa! Sugod ulit!

Pick of the week is MPI

Grab two tranches.

Foreign buying is big and obvious.

Kamamahal na, subalit umaarangkada pa rin

Kumusta na ang mga portfolio ninyo, mga katoto?

Nakikinabang ba sa pag-arangkada ng indeks? May hawak pa rin ba ng mga istaks katulad nang URC, DNL, at iba pang tirada nang tirada pa rin ngayon ng all-time high nila? Congrats sa inyo kung ganire ang sitwasyon ng port ninyo. Iba talaga pag nanalig sa matitibay na kumpanyang may matinding paglago, paglawak, and pag-alagwa pa nang bisnes sa kung saan-saang bagong produkto o saan-saang bagong bansa.

Subalit--nakakabahala na rin. Nasasayang man ang oportunidad, di na rin maikakaila na kamamahal na ng ating paboritong istaks kumpara sa kanilang kita ngayong taon. Ang JFC halimbawa ay nasa kuwarenta na ang P/E. Nakakanerbiyos na pumasok o magdagdag pa.

Kung titignan ang table sa ibaba halimbawa, ang mga may green na lang ang maganda-ganda pa ang P/E. (Wag na lang pansinin ang mababang P/E ng San Miguel. Kadami ng utang ng kumpanyang yan. At di pa ko bilib kay Mechanic, sabi ko nga sa dating post).

TEL, MBT, at MEG ang may kumpiyansa akong pumasok pa, kung talagang aalagwa pa pataas ang market natin.

Handa rin ako magbenta na kung biglang may dausdos ng bentahan ang mga banyaga,

Pick of the week patience to wait for old, reliable, favorites to be more attractive again...

There's some hopin and wishin in this week's pick.

PGOLD is being sold down by foreigners. I'll buy at 39, then 38, 37, and so on.

TEL appears rearing to go down as well. I'll stat buying again at 2700.

Apologies to those holding. Just rearing to clear some cash.

No time to look at other stocks. I just placed GTM buys on both.

Patalastas muna

–Sir mukhang marami kayong lamig sa katawan, wag kang mag-alala tatanggalin ko lahat yan
–Uy salamat
–Mukhang pagod na pagod kayo sir ah san ka nagtatrabaho
–Wala pa trabaho. Nag-aaral pa lang. Stress ng term papers lang siguro yang nahahawakan mo.
–Madalas ka ba dito sir
–Hindi ngayon lang, nalibre lang nang barkada.
–Talaga sir.
–Oo. First time. Kinakabahan nga ako sayo.
–Ba’t ka kinakabahan sir, ikaw naman. May misis ka na ba.
–Wala pa. ambata ko pa, college pa lang.
–Gelpren, sir?
–Wala rin akong gelpren. Walang pandeyt at oto. Puros may mga oto lang ang nagkakagelpren
–Hindi naman siguro ako kahit jeep lang ang date basta mabait sir.
–Wag mo akong tawaging sir. Mahirap lang kami,
–Ako rin mahirap kaya nga andito.
–Bat angganda nang boses mo.
–Palabiro ka.
–Hindi nga.
–Pihit na nga. Tihaya na.
–Ang ganda ganda mo. Akin ka na lang.

O, baka magkaideya kayo kung san gagastusin yang kinikita sa istaks ha